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過時? 不朽的才是經典 CUP


From


http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/Chui-Cup/article?mid=14783


看到巴黎的經歷:

http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/tonylaw-vaueinvesting/article?mid=492

 

得知不少不學無術之輩錯誤批評 Benjamin Graham "Security Analysis" 這部經典。說其過時以及不合時宜。

 

經典之所為經典,乃因其不朽。

 

Security Analysis 教分析員以認真、謹慎、客觀、批判以及科學的態度去分析證券。

 

Security Analysis 在第一章已指出何謂分析以及分析的重要性:

 

Analysis Connotes the careful study of available facts with the attempt to draw conclusions therefrom based on established principles and sound logic. It is part of the scientific method. But in applying analysis to the field of securities we encounter the serious obstacle that investment is by nature not an exact science. The same is true, however, of law and medicine, for here also both individual skill (art) and chance are important factors in determining success or failure. Nevertheless, in these professions analysis is not only useful but indispensable, so that the same should probably be true in the field of investment and possibly in that of speculation.

 

證券分析字字珠機,半世紀前的文字,到今 天仍被投資界極廣泛的引用,不是不朽那會是什麼?此書雖然沉悶,但愈讀是愈有意思,Benjamin Graham 的智慧的確能令人產生一種「唔精讀他的著作就會走寶」的現象。這書除了有很多永恒的投資真理外,也十分具實用性,並不是一個純粹數學性的教材,其中對於證 券內在價值估算的理念,已有「模糊地正確」以證明我們的投資是否合理的觀念,而不是追求機械式的精確數字估算:

 

The essential point is that security analysis does not seek to determine exactly what is the intrinsic value of a given security. It needs only to establish either the value is adequate -- e.g., to protect a bond or to justify a stock purchase -- or else that the value is considerably higher or considerably lower than the market price.

 

凡此種種投資的基礎理論,雖然因為時空所 限,Graham 的著作無法得到近代的資料而作出與時並進的新理論或結論。但它就好像物理學的牛頓定律,即使後來不斷有新發現,出了愛因斯坦都好,也不減牛頓力學的重要 性。讀基礎物理,我們仍然要繼續學牛頓定律。正如經濟領域出了個 Adam Smith 的國富論,即使後來有凱因斯等重要的經濟學家,這也不代表國富論的過時。基礎不紮實,日後練功十分容易走火入魔。

 

"Security Analysis" 就好像練功夫練紮馬,十分枯燥沉悶,但是對日後練成真功夫有重要的正面作用。不少人想偷雞唔練基本功,那也罷就,但不能找出什麼「過時」的藉口來合理化。



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