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投資最重要的二、三事 投資無限

http://vvfounderblog.blogspot.hk/2013/12/blog-post.html
對於價值投資者來說, 除了經常細讀巴菲特的投資哲學, 另一位著名投資家 Howard Mark 的投資哲學亦是極之值得細讀。他剛剛又發放了新的 Memo, 一如以往,他著重於分析市場投資環境及風險,在這方面他的把握及洞察能力是極強的, 而今次的 Memo 亦不例外。

另外, 其需然成名於投資不良資產 (Distressed asset), 這有別於一般的二級市場股票投資, 但其整體的投資理念是非常值得借鑑。尤其是在規避風險的層面上。下面收錄了那份 Memo 的 Highlight 供有興趣者參考 (可走入連結看全文)。

筆者認為, 如果想長期獲得優於平均的投資回報, 有效地掌握以下的二、三事是極其重要的 :
1. 風險規避能力 - 這個需要投資者對投資環境及風險有良好的評估能力及擁有審慎的投資態度。這個範疇對長期投資成績起著關鍵作用, Howard Mark 是一個好的學習對象。
 
2. 分析投資標及估值能力 - 這個不用多說了。如果不能有效地掌握, 那麼投資成功率會較低。這領域巴菲特是固中强手, 非常值得學習。
 
3. 自身評估能力 - 認識自己是那類型人, 找出適合的投資方法. 這是非常重的, 但亦是常被忽略的一點, 不同的性格是需要找出相對適合的投資風格才行, 強行模仿一般是無效的。不過, 要做好這方面就要倚靠自己了。

HAPPY INVESTING!

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For full article, visit the below link.
Archieves from -  http://www.oaktreecapital.com/memo.aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

"In short, sometimes the credit window is open to anyone in search of capital (meaning dumb deals get done), and sometimes it slams shut (meaning even deserving companies can’t raise money). "

"In fact, one way they strive to win the opportunity to put money to work is by doing increasingly dangerous things."

"Today’s financial market conditions are easily summed up: There’s a global glut of liquidity, minimal interest in traditional investments, little apparent concern about risk, and skimpy prospective returns everywhere. Thus, as the price for accessing returns that are potentially adequate (but lower than those promised in the past), investors are readily accepting significant risk in the form of heightened leverage, untested derivatives and weak deal structures. "

"Now we’re seeing another upswing in risky behavior. It began surprisingly soon after the crisis (see Warning Flags, May 2010), spurred on by central bank policies that depressed the return on safe investments. It has gathered steam ever since, but not to anywhere near the same degree as in 2006-07."

"When people start to posit that fundamentals don’t matter and momentum will carry the day, it’s an omen we must heed.

"While the extent is nowhere as dramatic as in 2006-07 – and the psychology behind it isn’t close to being as bullish or risk-blind – I certainly sense a significant increase in the acceptance of risk. The bottom line is that when risk aversion declines and the pursuit of return gathers steam, issuers can do things in the capital markets that are impossible in more prudent times."

"I believe most strongly that the riskiest thing in the investment world is the belief that there’s no risk. "

"Nevertheless, many investors are accepting (or maybe pursuing) increased risk. The reason, of course, is that they feel they have to. "

"In short, it’s my belief that when investors take on added risks – whether because of increased optimism or because they’re coerced to do so (as now) – they often forget to apply the caution they should. That’s bad for them. But if we’re not cognizant of the implications, it can also be bad for the rest of us."

"Risk aversion isthe essential element in sane markets. "

"The result is a more dangerous world where asset prices are higher, prospective returns are lower, risk is elevated, the quality and safety of new issues deteriorates, and the premium for bearing risk is insufficient."

"It’s one of my first principles that we never know where we’re going – given the unreliability of macro forecasting – but we ought to know where we are. “Where we are” means what the temperature of the market is: Are investors risk-averse or risk-tolerant? Are they behaving cautiously or aggressively? And thus is the market a safe place or a risky one?"

"Certainly risk tolerance has been increasing of late; high returns on risky assets have encouraged more of the same; and the markets are becoming more heated. The bottom line varies from sector to sector, but I have no doubt that markets are riskier than at any other time since the depths of the crisis in late 2008 (for credit) or early 2009 (for equities), and they are becoming more so."

"Is This a Sell Signal? If Not, Then What? No, I don’t think it’s time to bail out of the markets. Prices and valuation parameters are higher than they were a few years ago, and riskier behavior is observed. But what matters is the degree, and I don’t think it has reached the danger zone yet...... A rise in risk tolerance is something that should get your attention and focus your concentration.......I think most asset classes are priced fully – in many cases on the high side of fair – but not at bubble-type highs."

"I repeat Warren’s injunction for the simple reason that you just can’t put it any better. When others are acting imprudently, making the world a riskier place, our caution level should rise in response."

"Over the last 2-3 years, my motto for Oaktree has been consistent: “move forward, but with caution."
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