http://albertanalyst.blogspot.com/2010/10/quantitative-easing.html
自從Federal Reserve推出"Quantitiave Easing 2 (QE2)"後,全球股市升勢持續,而2010年9月亦是恆生指數和DJIA全年表現最好的一個月份.
筆者最常聽到對QE2的說法(基本上所謂的專家同師奶的說法分別不大)是:
- Federal Reserve推出QE等於印銀紙
- 因此美元會貶值
- 惡性通漲是難以避免
- 資產價格因此會大漲
- 惡性通漲和美元貶值亦會令美債的泡沫爆破
看似十分順理成章的推論其實有多有效?? 坦白說,實際上是漏洞百出,大家只要理解QE的定義便會一目了然.
看 一看在Wikipedia對"QE"的定義,QE只是"Federal Reserve"的"Open Market Operation",Federal Reserve只需要在市場內向金融機構(主要為銀行)購買債券(主要為政府債券, Treasuries),其直接效果是銀行的儲備(Reserve).
Quantitative Easing (Source: Wikipedia)
The term quantitative easing (QE) describes a monetary policy used by central banks to increase the supply of money by increasing the excess reserves of the banking system. This policy is usually invoked when the normal methods to control the money supply have failed, i.e the bank interest rate, discount rate and/or interbank interest rate are either at, or close to, zero.
A central bank implements QE by first crediting its own account with money it has created ex nihilo ("out of nothing").[1] It then purchases financial assets, including government bonds, mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds, from banks and other financial institutions in a process referred to as open market operations. The purchases, by way of account deposits, give banks the excess reserves required for them to create new money, and thus a hopeful stimulation of the economy, by the process of deposit multiplication from increased lending in the fractional reserve banking system.
理論上,銀行的儲備增加後,是有能力借出更多的錢.若果私人機購和私人個戶願意向銀行借入更多的錢去進行投資和消費,那麼便發生"Money Multiplier Effect",這仍是Federal Reserve十分樂意見到的事情.
但是這些"樂意見到的事情"是十分依賴"Private Sector"是否願意去借入更多的錢,否則只不過是令銀行的儲備增加而已(所謂的Liquidity Trap).
換 個角度來看,這僅是"Demand/Supply"的問題,QE是為了增加銀行體系內的"貨幣供應(Monetary Supply)",但若果"Private Sector"不願意(或沒有需要)去借入更多的錢的話,"Monetary (Loan)Demand"仍即沒有變化,仍即所謂的"供應過剩(Over-Supply)".
事實上,自2009年初開始,歐美銀行的貸款(Loan Balance)並沒有增加(甚至下降),原因十分簡單 ---> De-leveraging Process
記性好的讀者可能仍記得在泡沫爆破後,日本於1990年至2003年所發生的事情,亦是"De-leveraging".
再回顧大多數人所謂對QE的觀念:
- Federal Reserve推出QE等於印銀紙 ---> Federal Reserve只是向銀行購買債券,亦即戶口轉移(Account Transfer)
- 因此美元會貶值 ---> 見上
- 惡性通漲是難以避免 ---> 若然"Private Sector"不願借入更多,經濟放緩的後果是通縮(Deflation)
- 資產價格因此會大漲 ---> 見上
- 惡性通漲和美元貶值亦會令美債的泡沫爆破 ---> Federal Reserve購買債券,可能令美債價格上升
以上的看法對於中期(未來6至12個月)的經濟和金融市場的走勢較為有效.
當然,短期股票市場走勢主要受到人群情緒(Psychology)以及"供求(Supply/Demand)"等因素左右,可以忽略所謂的基本因素.換句說話,中短期炒股的"Logic"未必與中期的基本因素有關......"As long as the stocks rally, who cares the reason(s) behind".
然而,若然以未來6至12個月(甚至更長)的時間為投資目標,那麼便需要具備更明智的"Insights",而非依靠人云亦云的看法!!