ZKIZ Archives


ESPRIT(00330),ON SALE BILL

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_3dbfb5400100v9k5.html

  當然,不是說其衣服打折,而是股票--思捷環球(00330)。

  當年的百倍股神話,從高位下挫95%,上千億的市值煙消云散。我會耐心期待其重建雄風。

  賣寧滬高速H,2個月前低於A股股價15%買入,獲利30%,換入思捷環球,但只買到幾千股,看其盤面一會就升了好幾個價位並把賣盤全部清光還沒回頭,估計有大戶收集(我完全不會看盤面及技術分析,瞎猜)。歐債美債危機及國內經濟形勢都不容樂觀,應該還有很多機會低價買進。等!

  買入股票,我是以實業生意分析其價值。今年,無論A股還是H股,集體炒錯優質高速公路板塊,我相信其價值會逐步回升,一個比房地產毛利還高的賺錢利器,我 實在沒運氣涉及到這種實業生意。停止收費?乾脆否定改革開放吧,不用小股東,利益集團會維護高速公路這塊肥肉不動搖。而交通板塊算是本人投資組合佔比重最大的(尤其在A股,一股獨大)還有不俗的分紅,本人還持有寧滬A,大秦,浙江滬杭甬,都沒什麼虧損,遠跑贏大盤。這板塊的防守性很強,在關鍵的時候,可以換馬,如前段時間賣廣深換中國動向。

  每個人的資金狀況不同,投資有很大風險,從投資組合來看,仍是處於防守。在A股七成是現金,H股還有中移動,中石化這些可代替現金股沒多大動作,而收息股新華文軒,筆克遠東,貿易通基本面都很好,無懼熊市。內房股組合則很悲劇---這組合是投資的對沖,這兩年陸續賣出投資性房產,把原始資金投入內房股,很顯然,這個對沖付出太大了。房地產繼續走高,中國經濟沒救!!

  現在到明年上半年,大家都認為經濟會很差,最危險的時候是最安全的時候?還是我們都要為之前的繁榮泡沫長久埋單?拭目以待。


ESPRIT 00330 ON SALE BILL
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=29535

On China 茶怪老作

http://milkteamonster.blogspot.com/2012/02/on-china.html

基辛格的新書On China,論中國,嚴格來說是論中國與西方的外交關係。在清朝,鴉片戰爭及以後的矛盾,反映相方的誤解。西方國家希望 與中國通商,無意侵略中國,西人不明白貿易有甚麼大不了,軍事侵略才值得抵抗吧。對於中國來說,軍事侵略反而較容易接受,中國不時受外族入侵的威脅,更有 金人和滿人成功入主中原,不過最終都被中華文明所淹沒。中國幾千年歷史以來的外交,只有外國進貢卻少有平等貿易,中國為天下中心的基礎觀念一旦打破,恐怕 中華文明也受到挑戰。因此,在當時中國人看來,平等外交關係較軍事侵略更可怕。

這位前美國國務卿,用宏觀的角度觀察政局。中國人愛下圍棋,西方人下象棋,兩者反映不同的想維模式,圍棋志在圍,志在建立一種形勢在克制對手。象棋是寸土 必爭的功防戰,冒求耗盡對手一兵一卒。作者用這個分別解釋中美在五六十年代在台灣海峽上的搏奕。美軍在下象棋,旨在佈防。中國用圍棋的眼光去看,誤以為美 軍有意圍堵,所以特別反感。

接著,他用三國演義的情節講中國、蘇聯和美國的三角關係。不對,正確來說,首先提出的是毛澤東的幕僚。

也許,作者提出的觀點已不再新鮮,不過,以我對政治學的淺見,很少見有這樣顯赫的西方政治家,寫一部以中國為專題的書,而又成為暢銷書。這或者反映了西方社會對中國的求知態度,由以往的好奇,變到今天的認真。

On China 茶怪 怪老 老作
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=31098

經典重讀:巴菲特論通脹 Buffet on Inflation Abstainer

http://xueqiu.com/6999310127/22853603
巴菲特對預測股票市場的走勢與買賣時機缺乏信心,同樣,他也不認為有任何資料能用於判斷宏觀經濟形勢。巴菲特不關注失業數字、利率和匯率,也不讓政治因素干擾其投資決策過程。巴菲特認為,宏觀經濟就像跑道上的賽馬一樣,有些時候跑得快而有些時候跑得慢。巴菲特將興趣更為集中在企業的基本情況上。不過,巴菲特非常關注通貨膨脹,因為通貨膨脹會影響企業的收益水平。

那麼,巴菲特眼中的通貨膨脹是個什麼東東呢?巴菲特始終認為通貨膨脹是一個政治現象而非經濟現象。因為迄今為止,仍然沒有對政府支出進行嚴格限制。鈔票的不斷印刷推動通貨膨脹率越來越高。巴菲特承認他不能確知高通貨膨脹何時出現,但他認為赤字財政不可避免會導致通貨膨脹。巴菲特對預算赤字的恐懼程度小於對貿易赤字的恐懼程度。因為美國經濟實力強大,巴菲特相信國家能處理好預算赤字。但巴菲特非常擔憂貿易逆差。可以說貿易逆差是形成他對通貨膨脹「偏見」的一個不可缺少的因素。

上個世紀80年代,美國人的消費超過其自身生產的產品。也就是說,美國人不僅消費了其本國生產的產品,而且他們的胃口還消化了外國的商品。在交換這些商品時,美國發行了各式各樣的提單,包括美國政府債券、公司債券和美國銀行存款。這些提單一直在以驚人的速度增長。但由於美國是一個富國,這些貿易逆差在一段時間內還不會引人注意,但最終這些提單會交換美國的財產和美國的生產設施。

一個國家處理貿易逆差最簡單的方法是通過國內的高通貨膨脹來減少這些提單的價值。但巴菲特認為,外國投資者對美國償還未來提單能力的信任被誤導了。 當外國人持有的提單達到一個不可處理的水平時,通貨膨脹的誘惑就不可抵禦了。對一個債務國而言,通貨膨脹是一個氫彈級的經濟手段。基於這個原因,極少的債務國被允許以本幣償付債務,但因為美國經濟的完整性,外國人願意購買美國的債券。但如果美國用通貨膨脹來逃避對外國的債務,那麼因此而蒙受損失的將不僅僅是外國的債權人。

高通貨膨脹加重了公司對股東收益的負擔。為使投資者獲得真正的收益,公司必須獲得比投資者的痛苦指數(指稅收與通貨膨脹的總和)更高的淨資產收益率。

所得稅從來不會將公司正收益變為股東的負收益。如果通貨膨脹率為0的話,即使所得稅稅率為90%,仍會有股東收益。但是,正如巴菲特在上個世紀70年代親眼目睹的那樣,隨著通貨膨脹率的上升,公司必須為股東提供更高的淨資產收益率。對於淨資產收益率達到20%的公司(很少有公司能達到這個水平)來說,處在12%的通貨膨脹率之下,只能給股東留下很少的東西。當所得稅稅率為50%時,一個淨資產收益率為20%、並且全部利潤用於分紅的公司,其實際淨收益率只有10%。在12%的通貨膨脹率之下,股東獲得的購買力僅僅為年初的98%。當所得稅稅率為33%,如果通貨膨脹率為8%,則淨資產收益率為12%的公司對股東的回報便降為0。

多年來,傳統觀念一致認為股票是與通貨膨脹相對沖的工具。投資者也往往相信,公司自然會把通貨膨脹的代價轉嫁給消費者,從而保護公司股東的投資價值。但巴菲特不同意這種觀點。他認為通貨膨脹並不能保證公司獲得更高的淨資產收益率。

一般來說,企業可以通過以下5種方法提高淨資產收益率:
1、提高資產周轉率;
2、增加經營利潤;
3、減少納稅;
4、提高財務槓桿比率;
5、使用更便宜的財務槓桿。

其中:235都是提高淨利潤率

在第一種方法中,通過對應收賬款、存貨和固定資產(廠房與設備)進行分析,巴菲特發現,應收賬款通常與銷售收入同比例增長,而無論這種增長是由於銷售量增加或是價格提高的結果。因此,從這個角度看,並不能通過提高應收賬款周轉率來改善淨資產收益率。但存貨並不就是如此簡單了。增加銷售收入會相應增加存貨周轉率。短期內,存貨會由於供應關係的瓦解、採購成本的變化等因素而變化無常,那些使用後進先出法核算存貨的公司在通貨膨脹時期能改善淨資產收益率。但巴菲特認為,通貨膨脹從1975年開始持續上升,但在1975年的前10年內,《財富》前500家大公司的存貨周轉率也僅從1.18%上升至1.29%。由於銷售收入比資本支出增加更快,通貨膨脹還有增加固定資產周轉率的趨勢。但是,如果這些固定資產被重置,資產周轉率就會下降,直到通貨膨脹的上升與銷售收入及固定資產價值上升一致。

多數企業經理人認為總有增加經營利潤的可能,從而相應能增加淨資產收益率。但巴菲特指出,通貨膨脹對經理們控制成本的幫助作用極小。公司面對的非利息、非稅收成本是原材料、能源和勞動成本。在通貨膨脹期間,這些成本通常是上升的。從統計角度看,美國大多數製造業公司在20世紀60年代取得了8.6%的稅前銷售利潤率,到處於通貨膨脹上升時期的1975年,這個比率是8%,呈現出通貨膨脹上升,經營利潤率下降的態勢。

在考慮較低的所得稅時,巴菲特提請人們設想投資者持有D類股票,而A、B、C類股票被聯邦、州和地方政府持有並代表它們各自的獨立稅收權。雖然A、B、C類股票的股東不擁有公司的資產,但它們確實佔有公司收入的很大份額。A、B、C類股票的股東可以投票決定增加它們在公司收入中的份額。但A、B、C類股票的股東這樣做的時候,D類股票股東的收入就減少了,淨資產收益率相應下降。在通貨膨脹上升時期,投資者能設想A、B、C類股票的股東會減少它們在公司收入中的份額嗎?

公司可以通過提高財務槓桿或使用更便宜的財務槓桿提高淨資產收益率。然而,通貨膨脹不會導致借款利率下降,相反,在通貨膨脹時期,資本需要升值,迫使借款人提高利率。另外,當通貨膨脹率上升時,由於借款人對未來的不信任,需要將他們的借款利率予以上浮,即使實際利率不增加,以利率略高的貸款替代到期的低利率貸款也會增加公司的財務費用。

具有諷刺意義的是,那些能夠償還債務的公司往往只有很少的貸款需求,而那些拚命掙扎以求保持盈利的公司總是站在銀行窗口的最前面。那些因為通貨膨脹而預計有更高的資本需求的公司不得不大舉借債。在公司運營速度減慢和資本需求增加的情況下,公司因持續經營而需要在資本市場尋求更多的資金,或者,在更戲劇性的情況下,削減紅利的支付。如果管理得當,增加財務槓桿能增加淨資產收益率。然而,在通貨膨脹上升時,更高的財務槓桿帶來的好處會被更高的利率所抵消。

巴菲特考察了戰後美國的淨資產收益率的歷史記錄,並且由此總結出收益水平波動很小。在考察二戰後每隔10年的情況時,巴菲特注意到道.瓊斯工業指數對應的公司在1945年—1955年的10年間,淨資產收益率平均為12.8%;1945年—1965年期間,淨資產收益率平均為10.1%;1945年—1975年期間,淨資產收益率平均為10.7%。而《財富》500家最大公司中,1945年—1955年10年間,淨資產收益率平均為11.2%;1945年—1965年期間,淨資產收益率平均為11%;1945年—1975年期間,大多數美國公司的淨資產收益率在10%—12%之間。淨資產收益率的歷史記錄顯示出與通貨膨脹的上升與下降毫無關係。至此,巴菲特令人信服地證實了高通貨膨脹與公司謀求更高的淨資產收益率毫無幫助。

巴菲特深知不能從通貨膨脹中獲利,轉而尋找其他方法予以規避那些會被通貨膨脹傷害的公司。巴菲特認為,需要大量固定資產支出來維持經營的企業往往會受到通貨膨脹的傷害;需要較少的固定資產支出的企業也會受到通貨膨脹的傷害,但傷害程度要小得多;經濟商譽高的企業受到的傷害最小
經典 重讀 巴菲特 巴菲 通脹 Buffet on Inflation Abstainer
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華能新能源(1)---投資要點 why positive on HNR (958.hk) 山頂洞之

http://xueqiu.com/5047234021/23019733
958's growth canbe highly expected in 2013 by:

1) improved financial cost, less than 5.8% (2012, roughly 6.5%) due to the interest cut and monthly government grant payment from clients(NDRC is transferring its duty to Ministry of finance which, starting from thisyear, will prepay the government grant monthly to 958's client(i.e. gridcompany) first. Before, the grant was settled on average about 1 year as someprovinces were frequent (e.g. Guangdongwas monthly) while some not, like 12 or 18 months;

2) improved utilization-hour to 1850hrs (2012: 1750hrs). ChineseNational Grid has a guidence about the improvement of power curtailment thisyear to 10% overall (2012: 15%). In addition, 958's new projects launched / tobe launched mainly base in southern areas with on curtailment, so the utilization-hourpicking up trend can be expected.

3) less CDM impact comparing with its peers, due toits less proportion of CDM income in EBIT as well as conservative accountingmethod used;

4) higher efficiency in non-inner Mongoliaareas, including Shandong, Liaoning, Guizhou, Xinjiang, Jilin etc. Moreover, for Inner Mongolia, HNR has a higher exposure (30%as of 2012, 916 only 20%) but lower efficiency which brings more improvementroom for HNR's profitability if the power exchange of 4 bil KWh between the northeasternChina area and the northern China area;

5) higher on-grid tariff as its presence in richercoastal provinces like Shandong,Guangdong etc.

6) quota management policy may be implementedrecently enhancing the entry barrier to some extent;

7) increasing scale effect by stronger barginningpower against suppliers;

8) VAT on premium tariff may be exemptedsince Feb 1st 2013 which conservatively speaking may tender a netprofit of 0.02cent rmb per KWh.

9) less exposureon marine and oversea projects compared with  Longyuan. So far, domestic marine wind power technology is not mature but the cost high. So it's better to oberve the stability and maintenance cost of wind machine first. The same for the Overseas proj. which still need to pay tuition fee at current stage.
華能 新能源 投資 要點 why positive on HNR 958 hk 山頂洞 山頂
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=53417

《彼得林奇的成功投資》 One Up on Wall Street 要點摘錄 米可

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5834cdc10100t4hg.html
六種類型的公司
緩慢增長型:規模巨大且歷史悠久的公司,預期增長速度比國民生產總值稍快一些(2%-4%),定期慷慨地支付股息。在林奇的組合中很少會包含這樣的公司。
穩定增長型:盈利的年均增長率為10%-12%。在購買了穩定增長型股票後,如果股價上漲到30%-50%,林奇會把它們賣掉,然後再選擇那些相似的但價格還沒有上漲的穩定增長型股票重複進行同樣的操作。
快速增長型:林奇的最愛類型之一。規模小,歷史不久,年均增長率20%-25%。可能會從中產生大牛股。快速增長型公司並不一定屬於快速增長型行業,林奇更喜歡不屬於快速增長行業的快速增長型公司。它們在一個地方取得成功之後,很快將其成功經驗一次又一次複製。當增長速度變慢的時候,快速增長型公司的股票會快速貶值。林奇尋找的是資產負債表良好又有著實在的豐厚利潤的快速增長型公司。訣竅是弄清楚它們的增長期什麼時候結束以及合理的買入價格是多少。
週期型公司:時機選擇是關鍵,你必須能夠發現公司業務衰退或者繁榮的早期跡象。如果你在該行業工作,你就具備投資週期型公司的特殊優勢。
困境反轉型公司:幾乎要破產的公司。股價的收復速度往往非常快速,而且股價和整個股票市場的關聯度最小。困境反轉型的幾種類型:依賴於政府是否提供援助;誰會想到:問題沒有預料的那麼嚴重;破產母公司中含有經營良好的子公司;進行重整最大化股東價值。
隱蔽資產型:有價值的資產沒有被華爾街注意到。當地人利用當地優勢可以獲得大回報。隱蔽資產可能是現金、房地產、金屬、石油、報紙、專利藥品、電視台、有線電視用戶價值等等。

在分析公司和行業發展趨勢時個人親身體驗的價值是無法估量的。
如果要在下面兩個公司中選擇一個投資,一家是處在競爭激烈的複雜行業中管理水平非常傑出的優秀公司,另一家是處在沒有競爭的簡單行業中管理水平一般的平凡公司,我將會選擇後者。

13條選股原則:
公司名字聽起來枯燥乏味,甚至聽起來很可笑更好
公司業務枯燥乏味
公司業務令人厭惡
公司從母公司分拆出來
機構沒有持股,分析師不跟蹤。也十分喜歡那些曾經風光無限後來又被專業投資者打入冷宮的股票
公司被謠言包圍。
公司業務讓人感到有些壓抑
公司處於一個零增長行業中。投資高增長行業沒有什麼刺激之處,除了看到這個行業的股票大跌之外。在增長為零的行業,特別是令人厭煩和壓抑的行業中,你根本不用擔心競爭的問題。
公司有利基(持久的競爭優勢)
人們需要不斷購買公司的產品
公司是高技術產品的用戶
公司內部人士在買入自家公司的股票。公司內部人士賣出自家公司的股票通常沒有什麼特別的意義。
公司在回購股票。

避而不買的股票:
避開熱門行業的熱門股票。高增長行業和熱門行業吸引群起而至的競爭。
小心那些被吹捧成「下一個」的公司
避開多元惡化的公司。
當心小聲耳語的股票。這些股票往往沒有利潤。首次發行的新股4只中有3只的長期表現都十分令人失望。
小心過於依賴大客戶的供應商公司的股票。除了大客戶取消合同的風險,大客戶還擁有很大的談判優勢可以壓縮供應商的利潤空間。
小心名字花裡胡哨的公司。

何時賣出一隻隱蔽資產型股票:
併購者出現。
管理層宣佈發行新股票,籌資進行多元化經營。
公司以明顯低於合理價格出售下屬公司。
機構持股者比例大幅增加。
彼得 林奇 成功 投資 One Up on Wall Street 要點 摘錄 米可
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金融詞彙(9):息票債券coupon bond,零息債券zero coupon bond 和債券報酬率 Rate of Return on Bonds 寗零

http://notcomment.com/wp/3879

Coupon bond
大部分的債券屬於息票債券,此種類型,最大特色是到期之前必須定期給付票面息予債券持有者, 圖中 C 為債券的票面息給付(C =面額×票面息率),T為債券到期日,它的現金流:

cashflow為:
假設你用100息元買了一張三年期的at par bond 票息是5厘,每半年發一次息,它的現金流為:

Day 0 = -$100

6 mths = +$2.5

12 mths = +$2.5

18 mths = +$2.5

24 mths = +$2.5

30mths = +$2.5

36 mths = +$102.5

息票債券的價值點計?

息票債券均衡價格(P0)必須等於持有該債券預期收益的現值:Bond pricing

持有債券的資本機會成本(r)決定持有息票債券的價值
舉例:
政府準備發行七年期的息票債券,債券票面年息率為13%,面額為100萬元,每年六月以及十二月各發放票面息一次。假設孳息率為10%,
票面​​息金額為:100萬元×13% = 13萬元
每半年給付一次,每次給付金額(C)應為6.5萬元(13萬元/2)。
將各期現金收入以及到期孳息率(10% / 2)代入年金現值公式就可算出息票債券的價格:bond-pricing-ex-21

 

零息票債券zero coupon bond

它是指不支付利息的債券,由於是折現發行,到期時按面值還本,因此面值與折現發行價的差額就是投資者的資本利益。尤於投資者中途不會再收取利息,也就不用面對利息再投資的收益率下跌的風險。
假設20年期純折現率為10%,A公司發行面額100萬元的20年期零息債券,債券價格應為:
100萬/(1.1)^20=148644元
是的!真的!今天你只要付十幾萬,二十年後就收回一百萬!當然要純折現率是10厘而發行人又沒有關門大吉!
但如果純折現率為3.75%的話,現在就要付大概50萬元二十年後才收回一百萬。

債券報酬率rate of return on bonds
1.現價孳息率current yield
現價孳息率=票面利息除以巿場債券價格。
例如:債券票面息率是8%,
債券巿場價格是$1150.00
債券發行時票面價格是$1000
現價孳息率=$80/$1150=6.96%

2.到期孳息率(收益率)yield to maturity (ytm)
YTM 是投資債券時需要考慮的重要指標。投資者以當前市價買入債券,如期收到所有利息和本金至到期日的回報率就是YTM。也就是將債券未來的現金流以到期收益率折現為現值,就等於債券的巿價。計算是根據當時巿場價格,債券發行時面值,票面息率以及距離到期日時間,也假設所有票面息以同樣的到期收益率進行再投資。

YTM
公式中K0T稱為到期孳息率(yield to maturity)

例如:30年的息票債券,票面息率是8%
票面面額$1000
每半年發放票面息一次
債券巿場價格是$1276.76,

YTM1

 

財務計算器n=60,PMT=40,PV=-1276.76,FV=1000 comp i=3
到期孳息率YTM=3%x2=6%

債券價格等於債券面額時 (At Par)
票面​​息率等於到期孳息率。
債券價格低於債券面額時 (Discount)
票面​​息率低於到期孳息率。
債券價格高於債券面額時 (Premium)
票面​​息率高於到期孳息率

假設兩年期息票債券的到期孳息率(k02)為10%,其票面息率為10%,每年給付票面息一次,債券的面額為1000元。債券價格為:

$1000=$100/1.1 +$1100/(1.1)^2

假若兩年期息票債券孳息率(k02) 由10%上升至12%,債券價格變為:

$966.20=$100/1.12 +$1100/(1.12)^2

若兩年期息票債券孳息率(k02) 由10% 降為8%,債券價格變為:

$1035.67=$100/1.08 +$1100/(1.08)^2

所以以現時利息那麼低,如果你地驚美國在好快將來加息,投資債券特別是長期債券不是一個很好的選擇,因為債券價格會下跌。不過,筆者覺得如果是投資在一些相對高息的High Yield bond可以對沖到息口升,原因是息口升,經濟好大可能是轉好,那credit spead會改善,那麼價格應該可以打平。如果你對中國有信心,可以選一些中國的美元HY bond,人民幣一路升值,發行者如果收入是人民幣 (property companies),他們的美元repayment不是越來越小咩,所以中國走出去,人民幣慢慢升是有好多好處駕!

金融 詞彙 息票 債券 coupon bond 零息 zero 報酬率 報酬 Rate of Return on Bonds
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殼王撐腰吳啟華《On Call II》宣傳扭計


2013-10-31  NM  
 

 

同無線關係本來極之一般的吳啟華,在無線新主陳國強拉攏下,事隔七年回歸接拍台慶劇《On Call 36小時II》。擔正做男主角,幫手宣傳責無旁貸,但有「殼王」背後撐腰,即使監製潘嘉德親自開聲,吳啟華依然有本事企硬,拒度期返港,甚至講明會隨時甩底,缺席本週四(十月三十一日)的首播記者會,劇集播映宣傳期間,亦未必會配合現身,令一早度曬穀劇策略的《On Call II》大失預算,又投訴無門。一味拖住

無線慣性收視不再,作為台慶劇的《On Call 36小時II》為保優勢,早在個多月前,已逐一跟劇中演員度期出席宣傳活動。身為男主角的吳啟華,一直以忙於拍新劇《M Club》無暇處理,一味拖拒配合。直到上週一(十月二十一日),吳啟華與《On Call II》部分演員上《超級無敵獎門人終極篇》,劇集監製潘嘉德把握機會,親自踩落化妝間,面對面搵吳啟華講數,可惜一樣無功而還。「德哥(監製)親自落去搵啟華confirm 三十一號去QE(伊利莎伯醫院)宣傳,點知佢話大陸劇組未必肯放人,隨時唔到,仲話明套劇上緊都要喺大陸開工,唔會有時間做宣傳。」一名《On CallII》的幕後人員說。

主角無影,監製唯有將宣傳重心放回馬國明同楊怡身上,而聲稱內地劇組唔放人,無法配合宣傳的吳啟華,最終因為《M Club》要補戲,才肯落實回港,出席本週四的首播宣傳活動。

有牙齒印

過去吳啟華於無線拍過不少叫好叫座劇集,《妙手仁心》系列中的程至美一角,更助他開創事業高峰,直至○四年,吳啟華因為接拍同樣以醫生為題材、由恩師鄧特希為亞視包拍製作的劇集《上海灘之俠醫傳奇》,因而觸動了無線的神經,雙方關係不再。「因為趕完呢套劇(《俠醫傳奇》)之後先返去無線拍《妙手仁心III》,結果公司就將我嘅戲份減到好少!」吳啟華說。去年王維基的香港電視展開挖角潮,承認「有傾過」的吳啟華,亦句句有骨,表明無意返無線拍劇。「唔會返TVB喇!大家都知,外人返去唔會有特別角色做,時間又唔好、又長,酬勞又唔係特別好。」問他如果波友「殼王」陳國強開口會否有轉機?吳啟華立刻變調:「咁如果佢開聲又唔同!」

老細波友

十多年前開始轉打高爾夫球的吳啟華,與洪金寶分屬波友,亦因此與「殼王」陳國強結緣。「殼王」入主無線加上親自斟洽傾回巢,吳啟華才答應返無線拍台慶劇《On CallII》,更令在首輯憑「一件頭」角色彈出的馬國明要坐歪,戲份被大幅削減。有老細好友關照,年近五十的吳啟華,除獲安排港姐季軍朱千雪做拍檔,據瞭解,為遷就新年要搵錢的吳啟華,《On CallII》要由一月改後到二月底才開工。簽部頭約的吳啟華,雖然緊接再拍無線另一新劇《M Club》,卻可以分身到內蒙拍另一部大陸劇,純粹朝中有人好辦事!「殼王」賣賬,事隔一年,吳啟華已改口,表示有意同無線簽經理人合約,做親生仔!

自己友

陳國強接手TVB後,「殼王」身邊好友個個受惠,就連四大唱片公司的恩怨,亦由他親身出馬,令事件得以化解。

左麟右李

克勤與無線關係一直良好,但在四大唱片和無線交惡事件上,卻是第一個受害者!如今正式破冰,加上與老闆陳國強是好友,形勢立即大轉。「殼王」為力谷阿倫克勤12月舉行的演唱會,早前在《星夢》一連兩晚的決賽,安排「左麟右李」獻唱娛賓,更為他們拍攝演唱會特輯。

謝賢

波友之一的謝賢,獲安排同胡楓、Joe Junior,拍新旅遊節目《三個小生去旅行》,免費遊埠。

曾志偉

同TVB關係友好的曾志偉,是無線大騷司儀必選,自「殼王」上任後,志偉連幕後都做埋,親自埋班兼監製重頭劇《M Club》。

陳百祥

「殼王」坐正,阿叻旗下藝人如狄易達、蔚雨芯、楊焉等均不停亮相無線。由阿叻公司包拍的《叻哥遊世界》節目,無線亦花錢買下轉播。

殼王 撐腰 吳啟華 On Call II 宣傳 扭計
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Asia Fund Space 訪問 – HK Analyst Thumbs Up On Thru-Train by 盧志威

來源: http://www.hunghuk.com/2014/10/23/asia-find-space-%e8%a8%aa%e5%95%8f-hk-analyst-thumbs-up-on-thru-train/

Asia Fund Space 訪問 – HK Analyst Thumbs Up On Thru-Train

AT JUST 28, Mr. William Lo already has couple colorful feathers in his fedora – he has not only published his first novel but is also an influential portfolio manager with Ample Capital in Hong Kong. He told Asia Fund Space the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect share trading scheme comes not a moment too soon.

He must be doing something right as the portfolio he manages has risen 12% this year, compared to just a 2% rise for Hong Kong stocks overall.


Not yet thirty, Ample Capital Portfolio Manager Mr. William Lo is not shy on the lecture circuit.

Asia Fund Space:  You just published your first book last month, 一個80後告訴你他為什麽是有錢人 (A Twenty-Something’s Take on How the Rich Get Rich). What made a young busy professional like you decide to write the book and give us the lowdown on what’s inside?

Mr. William Lo, Portfolio Manager, Ample Capital:  I’ve been interested in finance since as long as I can remember. More recently, when I was 17, it was the year 2003. And anyone who was in Hong Kong – or Greater China at the time – remembers the atmosphere of dread we all felt, oftentimes afraid to leave our homes for fear of contracting SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).

But I found great peace, solace and a sense of security studying securities that year, mainly because not only were my peers wary of going to crowded places for much of that year, but they felt much safer locked up at home with their gadgets and games.


一個80後告訴你他為什麽是有錢人
(A Twenty-Something’s Take on How
the Rich Get Rich), by Mr. William Lo

I soon found that I could virtually have libraries to myself, and I would sit in virtual solitude that year in Hong Kong’s nearly empty reading rooms poring over the vast financial and investing sector research materials they had on hand.

At the time, I was too young to put money in the market under my own name, but did have relatives willing to stand behind my hunches and allow me to buy and sell under their name, thus giving me my initial immersion into the business of share trading.

With this in mind, I wanted to write a book that would not only encapsulate my experiences as an analyst and investor, but also inspire other would-be, up-and-coming financial sector professionals to succeed by way of my career example.


The benchmark Hang Seng Index (above) is up just 2% YTD, whlle Hong Kong investor Mr. William Lo’s portfolio has risen 12%.
Chart: Bloomberg

But it’s not just a tome about good and bad picks, or my history of bullish and dud choices.

I would say only about 20% of the book’s content is devoted to the nuts and bolts of investing while a good portion concerns what I have noticed and learned about good business management practices.

In short, it’s an advice book on how successful people make their money, whether via investing or developing their own businesses.

I also devote a chapter to how some of the world’s headline actors and entertainment sector celebrities have managed to make more money than the chairpersons of well-known blue chip enterprises.

So the book is not just about seasoned veterans in the commercial spaces and how they became rich, but is more about how a wide cross-section of the wealthy from various social strata and occupations, became well heeled over time.


Author of his Success:  Ample Capital Portfolio Manager Mr. William Lo published his
first book last month, 一個80後告訴你他為什麽是有錢人 (A Twenty-Something’s Take
on How the Rich Get Rich).

Asia Fund Space:  The Year of the Horse has not been particularly kind to the region, either in terms of GDP performance or equity market prices.

How do you think the Hong Kong stock market will finish out the year?

Mr. William Lo:  I expect sentiment to improve as the year draws to a close, and assuming there are no major shocks in the fourth quarter, I expect the benchmark Hang Seng Index to be rangebound around the 25,000 level.

I also anticipate sentiment further improving next, as I don’t expect the low China GDP growth figures to continue on much longer, thanks to what are likely to be a new raft of stimulus measures from Beijing should the economy maintain such stubbornly sluggish expansion rates into 2015.


Ample Capital Portfolio Manager Mr. William Lo keeps a close eye on market
trends in both Hong Kong and the PRC.

Asia Fund Space:  The Hang Seng Index is currently hovering around 23,000 points. That’s 3.4% higher than year-earlier levels and up 2.2% from the beginning of the year.

However, it’s currently down sharply from the well-over 25,000 achievement seen early last month.

Given the recently sluggishness – and street protests in Hong Kong — investor chat these days is abuzz with talk of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect — a market mechanism which could kick off as early as this month that enables international investors to buy shares in Shanghai while also allowingPRC investors the opportunity to buy stocks listed in Hong Kong.

But some are predicting significant growing pains for the scheme as given the quotas that keep a lid on the amount that can be traded, as well as a proscription on day trading, both regulations that have often been phased out in other more established capital markets overseas.

What is your take on this potentially game changing gambit?

Mr. William Lo:  It may launch by end-October but I think it may be pushed back to November.

The delayed start can most clearly be blamed on differences in the two markets between regulatory issue, especially in terms of taxation.

That being said, it can’t be blamed on either side in particular and I think both sides are so far unprepared on the whole.


House Rules:  Will Singapore and Hong Kong-listed China New Town Development
get a big boost from Shanghai investors finding its easier to investor in Hong Kong
listcos following the imminent launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect plan?

Despite the delays, the plan cannot be launched a moment too soon as I think it is highly anticipated by both sides, and overseas investors as well.

The markets have become even more efficient, and the A/H share premium that was a wide gulf a few years ago has already become something much more resembling dual-listed parity.

And following the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect launch, premiums on either side of the de facto border will become a thing of history.

I think Shanghai will be the bigger beneficiary of the Connect, both in terms of more enhanced transparency and will open up A-shares to global investors, thus making terms like QFII and ETFs potentially relics of history someday.

Overall, the plan is very helpful in bringing about a true, freeflow of capital between markets and continents.

by Andrew Vanburen (andrewvanburen@asiafundspace.com)

盧誌威
《鴻鵠財誌》創辨人盧誌威,現任豐盛資產管理組合交易經理,證監會持牌人,Yahoo財經欄名《鴻鵠經誌》出自史記「燕雀安知鴻鵠之誌」,鴻鵠於古中國是白色鳳凰,善高飛,寓意,燕雀身小深信貧富不問出身,只憑誌氣決心。
Posted in 港股投資 and tagged .
Asia Fund Space 訪問 8211 HK Analyst Thumbs Up On Thru-Train by 盧誌 誌威
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越說越離題 請Stay on track



2015-09-07  TCW

明明是單純的例行性業績簡報,站在台上的主管或同仁卻長篇大論,從公司願景、目標艱難一路講起,搞得台下聽眾呵欠連連。你若身為主管特助或會議主持人,該如何一句話就點醒台上的「表演狂」回歸重點?以下試舉3句慣用語。

《關鍵用法》

【情境1】從盤古開天說起、東聊西扯

【提醒句】Hit the high spots!(講重點!)

解 析:開場白超長、論述失焦……碰到這類把「簡報」搞成「長報」的主管或同仁,請用hit the high spots讓他命中目標即可。例句:Please hit the high spots; there's no time for us to know all the details.(請講重點,我們沒有時間知道所有的細節。)

【情境2】內容超艱澀、語焉不詳

【提醒句】In plain English(請用字直白)

解 析:圖表繁複、數據不易懂……當碰到這類炫技的主管或同事,把一句話搞成10張圖還說不清,請用in plain English讓他說明白就好。例句:What our boss meant in plain English was that we need to downsize to find a way out.(說穿了,老闆的意思是我們得縮編才有活路。)

【情境3】話匣子打開,一發不可收拾

【提醒句】Stay on track(回歸正題)

解 析:本來講者是有條不紊的報告事項,就在舉實例說明完後,發言方向漸漸偏離主題。這時請示意stay on track,導引講者把話說回來。例句:The speaker didn't always stay on track in his speech, so he couldn't finish it on time.(這位講者發言時都沒有依著主軸循序漸進,老是無法準時結束。)

世界公民文化中心獨家授權


越說 說越 離題 Stay on track
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File#621 The 山 of Music: Six癲 Going On Seven癲

原載《東Touch》1087期 (29Mar2016)
File 621 The of Music Six Going On Seven
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File#621 Six癲 Going On Seven癲

原載《東Touch》1087期 (29Mar2016)
原曲<Sixteen Going On Seventeen
File 621 Six Going On Seven
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=197817

接手新工作如walk on eggs

2016-08-01  TCW

Harry和Sally是同期考進銀行的儲備幹部,試用期間Sally發現Harry向主管John報告時特別能讓他頻頻回應。她私下向Harry討教後才明白,原來他善用「畫面感」說法吸引對方注意。如何用「畫面感」英文讓聽者連連點頭?以下試舉3例。

【情境A】自從我接下這個工作後,就一直如履薄冰。

【一般說法】I have been very careful ever since I took this job.

【畫面說法】I have been walking on eggs ever since I took this job.

解析:你對這份工作有多在意?若是猶如每天走在蛋殼上,深怕一不小心蛋就破了,這麼有「畫面感」的說法,肯定能讓聽者明瞭你的用心。

例句:Everyone walks on eggs whenever someone from the head office makes an inspection.

(每當總公司派人來視察時,大家都戰戰兢兢。)[情境B]競爭很激烈,我知道我必須使出渾身解數。

[一般說法]Since competition is intense,I know I have to work very hard.

[畫面說法]Since competition is intense,I know I have to try the whole bag of tricks.

解析:Work hard是老梗到不行的說法,而且通常無法讓人真正體悟到底有多辛苦,不如說成「把袋子裡的所有法寶都亮出來」清楚、有力。

例句:You'll have to try the whole bag of tricks if you want to win this job.

(如果你想得到這份工作,就必須把十八般武藝全使出來。)[情境C]明天就要上台簡報了,我超焦慮!

[一般說法]I'll give a presentation tomorrow.I'm so nervous!

[畫面說法]I'll give a presentation tomorrow.I'm about to pull my hair out!

解析:nervous是抽象形容詞,聽在別人耳裡,絕對比不上快把頭髮扯光的威受強烈。to pull/tear one's hair out這句慣用語表示「生氣、抓狂」,頗具情緒咸染力。

例句:My supervisor wilI tear her hair out if I don't get the project back on schedule.

(如果我沒有讓案子跟上進度,主管真的要抓狂了。)

撰文者湯名潔

 
接手 工作 walk on eggs
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Fool me twice, shame on me

曾俊華最後衝刺專訪 2017/03/22 20:35

特首選舉進入最後衝刺階段,候選人曾俊華接受最後衝刺專訪,回應在司長任內較少沾手政治議題,在中央眼中會否「輸蝕左」。
特首候選人名單︰曾俊華、林鄭月娥、胡國興
其實邊個話 Hea 曾「真誠」?呢個訪問真係見哂佢啲語言偽術...
閱讀更多 »
Fool me twice shame on
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AV狂想曲(十三)之 《雞蟲的二十一口釘(Twenty-one Staples on Whoremaster)》

「我唔理呀,你做M記,做地盤都好,總之出黎做,唔想再哂錢落你到,嘥米飯!!」
聽見平日唔會鬧我的老豆,竟然講到咁絕,我哭崩了,媽媽只好扶我入房休息。
我今年17歲,DSE剛放榜。雖然阿爸阿媽幫我搵左好多補習班,但我掛住玩,無心機讀書,結果只係得個位數。
我睡在床上,被角都給我的淚水沾濕了。我哭得倦了,回想起老豆的眼神...好,你要我「出來做」嘛!我便如你所願!
你不要後悔才好。
我下定決心,拿起手機,登入了相片分享網站,加入了PTGF的群組。17歲,卜卜脆;我對我的身材樣貌,絕對有信心。
很快便有了回應。
那是一名叫「大隻仔」的中年男子,約了我第二天在旺角見面。
我心情好了很多,止住了眼淚,收起手機,立心要睡個好覺,明天便是我人生的新一頁。
閱讀更多 »
狂想曲 狂想 十三 雞蟲 蟲的 的二 二十 一口 Twenty-one Staples on Whoremaster
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Boss out on bail over $61m theft charges

1 : GS(14)@2010-09-11 16:01:28

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/ne ... d=102700&con_type=1
2 : GS(14)@2010-09-11 16:01:56

http://realforum.zkiz.com/thread.php?tid=7933&page=0
更多資料
Boss out on bail over 61 theft charges
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Tam poll-graft case hinges on `service'

1 : GS(14)@2011-02-20 12:10:27

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/ne ... d=108230&con_type=1
Tam poll-graft case hinges on service
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ICAC swoops on traders

1 : GS(14)@2011-04-25 16:05:29

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?art_id=110211&con_type=1
ICAC swoops on traders
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Citron Reports on QIHOO 360 (NASDAQ:QIHU)

1 : GS(14)@2011-11-02 22:56:27

http://www.citronresearch.com/in ... hoo-360-nasdaqqihu/
The most overvalued and misunderstood
Chinese Internet Stock:
Target Price-$5

   Recent Market Cap:  $ 2.5 Billion USD
   Last Quarter Revenue: $35.1 million
   Management: Disturbing Record of Deceit
   Outlook: Destined for Single Digits
2 : GS(14)@2011-11-02 22:57:26

http://news.imeigu.com/a/1320157577450.html

(i美股)北京时间11月1日,之前因“狙击”东南融通(NYSE:LFT)而名声大震的美国做空机构Citron再次出手,这次他盯上了今年3月刚上市的明星公司奇虎360。Citron在网站上发布的报告称,奇虎360是“被资本市场最为误解、价值最被高估的中概互联网股票”,给予奇虎360股票5美元的目标价。奇虎360目前的市值约为25亿美元,今年第二季度的营收为3510万美元。

Citron最后还表示将继续推出“续集内容”来追踪奇虎故事,续集将把重点放在上市公司(包括奇虎)的投行向外界所公布大量错误信息上。就像斯凯一样,我们在读许多分析师的报告感到惊讶,这些报告看起像独立分析,但却只是在重复管理层对未来的憧憬。我们期望分析师能发出“刺耳”声音,希望他们给出一些更为实实在在的数据,而不是管理层那些乐观陈述。我们建议独立投资者去寻找或者关注独立数据,尤其像那些可以证实奇虎真实营收范围的数据,不要太看重公司所宣称的未来计划,尤其是那些并没有产生营收的计划。
3 : GS(14)@2011-11-02 22:58:05

http://news.imeigu.com/a/1320164270679.html

(i美股)北京时间11月1日,之前因“狙击”东南融通(NYSE:LFT)而名声大震的美国做空机构Citron再次发文质疑今年3月刚上市的明星公司奇虎360;称奇虎360是“被资本市场最为误解、价值最被高估的中概互联网股票”,给予奇虎360股票5美元的目标价。奇虎360目前的市值约为25亿美元,今年第二季度的营收为3510万美元。报告发布后,奇虎股价目前下跌超过11.23%。

因做空东南融通而声名大噪的香橼研究公司(Citron)是近年来围剿中国概念股最为著名的第三方独立调查机构之一;创始人安德鲁·莱福特可能是该机构唯一调查人和报告撰写者。从2011年以来,他发表了多篇揭露中国概念股造价的报告;有的公司在他引发的质疑声中倒下了,也有被错杀的企业在股价短暂下跌后又重新回到原来的轨道。

Citron最早是针对借壳上市的公司发表质疑文章,像中国生物(PINK:CHBT)、中国高速频道(PINK:CCME)分别于2010年8月和2011年2月被质疑;最后分别于今年7月和5月退入粉单市场交易。不过让Citron成名的是成功猎杀IPO上市公司东南融通一役。

猎杀东南融通一战成名

美国东部时间4月26日上午(北京时间4月26日晚间),Citron在其网站(http://www.citronresearch.com/)发表质疑东南融通涉嫌造假,称其60%-65%的毛利率远高于文思信息(VIT)、海辉软件(HSFT)、软通动力(ISS)和柯莱特(CIS)等同行,其惊人的利润率水平值得怀疑。并指出东南融通高管背景、员工聘用关系等问题。

该文章发布后,东南融通官方也没有及时回应,表示不对质疑发表评论;高盛,德意志银行、法国巴黎银行,加拿大蒙特利尔银行等全球著名投行也纷纷发布研究报告力挺东南融通。但随后Citron又发表了两篇质疑文章,东南融通官方回应了,但回应并未能让投资者信服。随后,高盛高华宣布暂停对东南融通发布评级和目标价;德勤解除与东南融通的业务关系;CFO、独立董事也相继离职。最后,东南融通因不在符合上市要求于2011年8月17日,在停牌整三个月后正式退入粉单市场交易;股价从猎杀前的20美元上方跌至2美元。

错杀斯凯、泰富电气 被称不了解中国

当然,Citron也并非白发百中。今年5月,他就发表文章质疑刚刚上市的斯凯;称不可能形成手机社交网络,因为中国的功能手机只能进行文字聊天,在小屏幕上玩简单的游戏;并对斯凯披露的活跃用户数表示怀疑。

因为斯凯当时还处于静默期不能对质疑进行回应,股价连续两个交易日暴跌超过20%。不过随后一些分析师和斯凯的CFO接受采访时都向外界表示,Citron并不完全了解中国的情况;是信息不对称导致的一些疑问。到现在斯凯并没有因为Citron的质疑而倒下。类似的情况还有中国阀门(NASDAQ:CVVT)。

在最近的一次质疑中,Citron的枪口指向的是准备私有化的泰富电气。今年4月,泰富电气CEO公布以每股24美元/股收购在外流通股的私有化方案后,Citron于6月撰文质疑泰富电气的私有化“子虚乌有”,认为该公司股票仅值7美元或者更低,建议投资者抛开私有化收购要约来对该公司进行估值。泰富电气股价因此大跌50%。Citron随后又接连发了4篇文章连续质疑泰富私有化说法和CEO筹资能力等;但随着国开行的背书以及公司CEO的声明;Citron的报告就不再对股价有大的影响了。泰富电气也于2011年10月31日成功通过了股东投票;即将成功私有化退市。

(i美股 Peter Wu 整理)
4 : GS(14)@2011-11-02 22:58:42

http://news.imeigu.com/a/1320185963429.html

【搜狐IT消息】北京时间11月2日消息,奇虎360今天早上回应了Citron Research的报告,全文如下:

奇虎360相信报告包涵许多数据错误,与事实不符,且有许多猜测,没有依据。公司指出一些事实上的关键错处,如下:

用户基础与网络流量

奇虎360拥有3.7亿活跃用户,主要是通过互联网安全产品获得的。产品主要是桌面应用。在使用奇虎安全解决方案时,用户并不要求访问360.cn。因此,用360.cn网络流量来估计奇虎360的总用户基数并不明智。

Alex排名

Alex主要通过浏览器的工具条插件追踪网络流量。360.cn的用户主要是通过奇虎360安全浏览器、360安全产品接入网站的,安全产品有一个特点:它会封杀不必要的插件,因为这些插件影响用户的在线体验。我们用户的电脑中只有极少数装有Alexa插件。因此Alexa低估了360.cn的流量。

DoubleClick数据

奇虎360与Google合作,主要是在搜索方面,即在奇虎360安全浏览器中整合搜索条,直接将搜索流量导向Google。360.cn并没有提供Doubleclick横幅广告(banner ads),也没有AdSense链接。Doubleclick Adplanner主要追踪横幅广告,而AdSense也无法准确评估360.cn的网络流量。

移动安全

奇虎360在2009年推出移动安全解决方案——360手机卫士,现今拥有超过2000万活跃智能手机用户。在中国,根据第三方数据,其移动安全活跃用户基数相当大,数据在SEC文件中已经有所引用。2011年8月和11月,奇虎360推出针对iPad、Android设备的移动浏览器,推出针对Android应用的移动程序商店,这进一步扩大了公司在中国移动互联网市场的达到率。

在Citron的报告中存在误导性陈述,上述事实只是其中的一些。报告作者未能探知究竟,也未与奇虎360管理层进行沟通。公司相信,文章的作者对中国互联网产业缺乏了解,对奇虎360尤其缺乏了解。

奇虎360致力于对股东的承诺和透明的沟通。(Riddle)
5 : GS(14)@2011-11-02 22:59:15

http://news.imeigu.com/a/1320211833904.html

(i美股讯)北京时间11月2日消息,今天中午,奇虎360公司董事长周鸿祎在微博上点评Citron对360公司的报告,“呵呵,二是不分国界的,在美国上市其实也要经历各种风风雨雨,也是成长必经的磨练。感觉国内行业恶性竞争的套路现在改出口转内销,他们不是不懂或不专业而是揣着明白装糊涂,精心把一堆错误的概念和数据包装,对免费安全及浏览器模式的歪曲和用莫须有罪名搞人身攻击的春秋笔法更像国内作品”。

周鸿祎是在转发@360安全卫士 官方账号发布的【Citron对中国互联网缺乏认知】这一微博时做出上述点评的。


Citron Reports on QIHOO 360 NASDAQ QIHU
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Vegas Bet on Chinese VIPs Raises Red Flags With Feds

1 : GS(14)@2012-12-08 21:43:22

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... 48160626366488.html
AS VEGAS—It could easily be mistaken for Chinese territory. On the
36th floor of the Venetian hotel and casino sits the "Paiza," a unique
gambling salon and suites for high rollers from Asia, adorned with
traditional serene Chinese paintings and a karaoke room. Gambling tables
accommodate as few as one player, for patrons who prefer more privacy.
        


  
    
    
    
    

  
  
  

Las Vegas is on a winning streak with rich
Chinese gamblers, but the WSJ's Kate O'Keeffe explains why big bets are
raising red flags with the U.S. authorities.
        
      
The area is
named after a passport given centuries ago to important Chinese
officials and guests. And the importance of the guests is certainly not
in question: These "whales" of gambling are betting anywhere from
$10,000 to $400,000—per hand.
For Las Vegas Sands Corp.,
LVS -0.43%
owner of the Venetian, and a handful of other casino companies in Las
Vegas, this select niche has become a godsend for an industry stuck in a
financial losing streak for much of the past four years. Jumping on a
business that is virtually invisible to most casino goers, industry
giants like Sands, MGM Resorts International
MGM -0.36%
and Wynn Resorts Ltd.,
WYNN -1.07%
are rolling out the red carpet for an elite group of gamblers, and scoring some remarkable jackpots.
        
        
          
Enlarge Image


          
          
          
          
          
        
        
            
              Triad Story: Connection Seen to Las Vegas Operators
            

          
            
              Sands Probed in Money Moves
            
8/4/2012
            
              China Gains Foothold in U.S. Energy
            
3/6/2012
            
              In the Heart of the Rust Belt, Chinese Funds Provide the Grease
            
2/11/12
        
      
In a single night during the Lunar New Year
last year, Wynn's Las Vegas resort won $16 million in table gambling,
the biggest tables-game night in its history. Asked at an investor
conference about the Chinese business in Las Vegas, Sands' CEO Sheldon Adelson described gambling as a "linchpin" of the Chinese culture. "In my second life, I'm coming back as Chinese," he said.
But while this Asian connection is a potential gold mine, it is
quietly attracting a related and controversial business that has drawn
the attention of federal authorities. China allows residents to take
only $50,000 in currency abroad a year, so some high rollers rely on
foreign tour operators, known as "junkets," to provide access to far
greater sums. Based in the Chinese gambling mecca of Macau, it is an
industry U.S. law enforcement officials and diplomats have long
suspected of money laundering and organized crime.
Now as the big U.S. companies are
upping the ante on their Chinese business, the U.S. Treasury enforcement
arm is focusing on whether some junket operators are importing a new
layer of money laundering to Las Vegas by obscuring the source of their
funding, the method for transferring it to high rollers and the
identities of the gamblers themselves. As part of that focus, the
Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network last month issued a web
alert to casinos advising them to monitor junket operations and junket
patrons and report "all available information" on any suspicious
activity.
        

        
      
The alert isn't the only headache Las
Vegas may face from the world of junkets. According to documents
reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, at least two alleged Chinese
organized crime figures are operating in Las Vegas through Macau-based
junkets; both have been members of Sands' high roller "Chairman's Club."
Law enforcement authorities say they are concerned about casinos
transferring junket deposits across international borders for patron
gambling; without the same scrutiny banks provide, those fund movements
carry a high risk of money laundering, they say.
People close to the junket industry also
provided the Journal with names of four operators who have been
registered to do business in Nevada—but who were found unsuitable last
year by outside investigators for Singapore's gambling authority. Three
of the four are still registered in Nevada, including one who
investigators said had hundreds of millions of dollars in unaccounted
for cash and assets, the people said. Nevada and Singapore gambling
officials declined to comment.
Spokesmen for Sands, MGM and Wynn declined to discuss the specifics
of their junket partnerships, but casino officials say they have been
able to limit junket presence in Las Vegas by working directly with
Chinese patrons. Indeed, while their ranks are growing, the number of
VIP gamblers from the mainland who are making the trip to Las Vegas is
still a relatively small group. The casinos also said their operations
comply with all laws and that their junket partners haven't been charged
with any serious crimes. "We can't be held to account for something
that legal authorities have yet to resolve," said Alan Feldman, a
spokesman for MGM.
Las Vegas' interest in the Chinese
sector is the latest example of U.S. companies noticing—and trying to
capitalize on—increasing flows of assets leaving mainland China. Of
course, that interest by Las Vegas isn't entirely new, dating back to at
least the 1980s, when Caesars Palace famously placed a Buddhist shrine
in front of its casino. Lunar New Year has long been a big event in
town, and some casino hotels avoid rooms with the number "4," considered
unlucky by some Chinese. Still, attracting travelers from mainland
China was rare, since travel was limited and casino companies had few
inroads into the complex gambling scene in Macau, the heart of Chinese
gambling.
        
Enlarge Image


        
        
        
        
        
        Associated Press
        
The Lunar New Year display inside the conservatory at MGM's Bellagio hotel and casino in Las Vegas.
      
In recent years, though, MGM, Wynn and
Sands have opened casinos in Macau, which has catapulted into the
world's largest gambling center, with a remarkable $34 billion in
gambling revenue last year, more than five times the size of the Vegas
Strip. The success the companies have had there—Wynn relied on Macau for
72% of its revenue last year—has given them a new incentive to create a
home-away-from-home for Chinese mainlanders. Sands alone poured $25
million into upgrading just one "Paiza" gambling center in Las Vegas,
while other casinos have been similarly generous, creating ultra luxury
gambling salons with Chinese TV and Chinese food delicacies.
"Guests can have anything they want anytime," Greg Shulman, a vice
president for marketing for MGM's Bellagio hotel, said on a tour earlier
this year of that casino's salon, decorated with gold and red hues and
private spaces. He called the adjacent dim sum and noodle joint "one of
the most important restaurants in the entire building."
In all, the number of mainland Chinese and Hong Kong tourists to Las
Vegas has shot up almost 80% over five years, to 188,000 last year. But
for casinos, the most important payout has come at its baccarat tables,
the game favored by Chinese high rollers. Revenue from that game rose
49% through July this year, compared with the same time period five
years ago, even as overall gambling revenue on the Strip fell almost
10%. Because of baccarat's growth, the game has jumped to more than one
fifth of all Vegas Strip gambling revenues, up from 13%.
"The baccarat growth is entirely driven by mainland Chinese
travelers," said Ben Lee, a casino consultant who has written
extensively about the junket market. "What you have is a small number of
people making a big impact."
        Red Flags
        
View Interactive
          


        
        
      
A good part of
that growth, insiders say, wouldn't have been possible without the
junket industry. Entrenched in Macau casinos since the 1980s, junkets
are essential to many Chinese high rollers because China has tight
restrictions on how much currency residents can carry abroad in a year.
The country doesn't recognize gambling debt either.
To assist high-rollers, junkets give players extensive credit lines
to gamble and then collect debts when the losses pile up. Some allow
high rollers to merely sign IOUs before they go abroad—but exactly how
junkets get around Chinese regulations is shrouded in mystery,
regulators say. "I still to this day have not had anyone be able to show
me how the money leaves mainland China and ends up in Macau," said Mark
Lipparelli, the outgoing chairman of the Nevada Gaming Control Board,
which has sweeping authority over Nevada casinos and their partners. "I
have yet to have anyone explain this to me in a coherent manner."
Analysts estimate there are as many as 10,000 people working in some
capacity for the junket industry, which runs from single-man shops to
formal firms. Many are tied to so-called "super junkets," conglomerates
that operate a wide range of junket activity and in some cases, end up
with quirky assets from years of debt collecting. According to one
former junket employee, Steve Karoul, a Mystic, Conn., casino consultant
who now advises investors on the industry, the parking lot of one
junket he worked for in the 1990s looked like a used car dealership,
because it had seized so many cars from gamblers unable to pay debts.
The company also seized real-estate assets, including a 400-room hotel.
"It's all gray market," he said.
        

        
        
        
        
        
        
        Alexandra Berzon
        
Baccarat table in the 'Paiza'
gambling lounge for Asian high-rollers on the 50th floor of Sands'
Palazzo hotel and casino in Las Vegas.
      
One
operator who talked to the Journal said the industry has been trying to
change its reputation, and now has some firms listed on foreign stock
exchanges. "Junkets are becoming more corporate," said Hoffman Ma,
deputy chairman of Success Universe Group Ltd., which has been in the
junket business since the 1990s. He said some Macau junkets still have
links with organized crime in China, but described that activity as
lessening, with junkets trying to make "more loans legitimate" and
realizing that "violence isn't going to work in Macau anymore."
Mr. Lipparelli, at the Nevada gaming board, said that while those
links may occur in Macau, his office has found no evidence of junkets
introducing organized crime to Las Vegas. "There's nothing that would
indicate that," he said. Still, according to two people knowledgeable
about junkets in Asia, private investigators working for the Casino
Regulatory Authority of Singapore reviewed the application of a junket
operator registered in Nevada—and recommended he not be approved because
he failed to disclose ties to a suspected organized crime figure. The
same investigators found another Nevada-approved operator, Chan Ting
Lai, unsuitable because he listed more than $250 million in cash and
assets he couldn't account for, according to the two people.
Reached in Hong Kong, Mr. Chan, owner of a large interior design firm
who has occasionally appeared at local entertainment industry events,
said he was still waiting for news on his application from the
regulatory authority in Singapore.
        
Enlarge Image


      
Nevada and Singapore regulators
typically share information, but a spokesman for the Nevada Gaming
Control Board wouldn't comment on whether the agency knew about the
outside investigators' report for Singapore. Agency officials say that
with hundreds of casino partnerships to monitor, it doesn't typically do
extensive reviews on applications for smaller operators. The gaming
board did recently increase registration fees, from $750 to $2,000, to
fund more thorough checks, but critics say it still needs to step up
scrutiny of Macau-based operators. "Macau is a real potential source of
embarrassment and difficulty for the Nevada regulators," said Bill
Eadington, a professor at the University of Nevada Reno who has studied
Macau junkets.
On the federal level, fund transfers between Macau and Las Vegas that
casinos handle for junkets have attracted the attention of the Treasury
Department. Chip Poncy, head of a Treasury Department policy office,
said such transfers are "a vulnerability we've seen for quite some time"
and that authorities are working with casinos and regulators to address
"the specific exploitation of it." Such transfers have long been a
concern for regulators internationally. "You've got these layers of
anonymity building up and building up so the player can hide between
quite a few layers of transactions," said Rachael Horton, a former New
Zealand casino regulator who wrote a 2009 report for the Financial
Action Task Force, an anti-money-laundering group based in Paris.
Casino officials for Sands, MGM and
Wynn say they comply with all federal requirements and have policies
guarding against money laundering; gamblers, they say, aren't allowed to
cash transferred funds in Las Vegas, just the winnings they make from
them. "Our company has a detailed compliance program that is submitted
to regulators," said Ron Reese, a Sands spokesman.
        

        
        
        
        Reuters
        
Charles Heung was identified as
a high-ranking triad figure in a 1992 U.S. Senate subcommittee report
on Asian organized crime. He has publicly denied being involved in
organized crime.
      
Details on the movement of funds for
Chinese high rollers into Las Vegas—and some of the more controversial
figures who may be involved—have also emerged since a high-profile,
wrongful-termination suit was filed in 2010 by Steve Jacobs, the former
head of Macau operations for Sands. In the suit, Mr. Jacobs filed copies
of a Sands ledger showing intracompany transactions between Macau and
Las Vegas with junket and individual names blocked out; the Journal has
now seen the names. Two people with past alleged ties to Chinese
organized crime groups known as triads are either listed in the
ledger—or are business partners of junkets on the document.
The two men—Cheung Chi Tai and Charles Heung—have each been
identified as high-ranking triad figures in a 1992 U.S. Senate
subcommittee report on Asian organized crime; the report, which followed
a series of triad-related arrests by the FBI, drew its findings from
law enforcement authorities and informants. More recently, a Hong Kong
appeals court judgment in March 2011 said Mr. Cheung was a "triad
leader" who ordered the death of a casino dealer. He wasn't charged in
the case, but a subordinate was sentenced for conspiracy to commit
murder.
        
Enlarge Image


        
        
        
        
        
        Las Vegas Sands Corp.
        
'Paiza' dining room.
      
Neither
Mr. Cheung nor Mr. Heung has been convicted of triad activity, and Mr.
Heung has publicly denied being involved in organized crime; when
contacted, representatives of the two men declined to comment. According
to people with knowledge of the company, both have also been members of
Sands' "Chairman's Club." The club is a select group of high-rollers
given exclusive access to Sands' most luxurious suites, six-figure
monthly expense accounts and extensive credit lines, according to a
court filing by Mr. Jacobs, who, through his attorney, has declined to
discuss his case.
For their part, Treasury and other law enforcement authorities who
have seen or are familiar with the Sands ledger say they are alarmed by
the size of some of the activity. Although the reasons for the fund
movements aren't known, the Journal found more than two dozen junket
operators on the ledger transferring a total of about $28 million from
2006 to 2010. One junket operator alone transferred $3.6 million in two
days between Macau and Las Vegas in 2009; another transferred $2.4
million in one day, according to the ledger.
        

        
      
Asked about the ledger, which was an
accounting document at Sands, Ron Reese, a company spokesman, wouldn't
comment on the money transfers, the company's use of junkets or any
people identified as moving money through casinos. "We believe the
company has acted properly and we will continue to cooperate with all
our regulators," he said. "But we will not compromise the privacy rights
of our customers."
In the end, some followers of the junket arrival in Las Vegas say the
biggest mystery may be the size of this new industry. In Macau, junkets
accounted for nearly three-fourths of the island's gambling revenues
last year, according to local regulators. Here in Las Vegas, casino
executives say the junket industry is much smaller, accounting for no
more than 20% of their mainland China VIP business. But some consultants
say that number is higher.
One problem: it is hard to track junket revenues because some junkets
don't use formal contracts—part of what Mr. Lee, the expert in the
Chinese gambling market, calls the "shadow junket" industry.
"Getting money over to America is even harder than getting money to
Macau," he said. "That's why the junkets have a big role in Vegas."
—Daniel Lippman, Chester Yung and Chun Han Wong contributed to this article.
        Write to         Alexandra Berzon at [url=mailto:alexandra.berzon@wsj.com]alexandra.berzon@wsj.com[/url], Kate O'Keeffe at         [url=mailto:kathryn.okeeffe@wsj.com]kathryn.okeeffe@wsj.com[/url] and James Grimaldi at         [url=mailto:james.grimaldi@wsj.com]james.grimaldi@wsj.com[/url]
Vegas Bet on Chinese VIPs Raises Red Flags With Feds
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爽視彈:衝上雲霄On Call 朱國亮

1 : GS(14)@2013-03-30 23:06:00

http://www.sharpdaily.hk/article/entertain/20130227/177781
吳鎮宇惡搞說《衝上雲霄II》未能在今年播出的確叫粉絲擔心,幸好只是無聊玩笑。在現今無綫劇撞演員撞角色的當兒,《衝II》確是叫觀眾期待的劇集。馬德鐘陳慧珊換上張智霖陳法拉,卡士未有跌watt,俊男美女加上影帝級鎮宇齊齊制服誘惑,據知已在做後期製作,今年一定有得睇。另一齣拍好了的《金枝慾孽(貳)》,是鄧萃雯、監製戚其義及編審周旭明離開前的最後作品,還未有聲氣,無綫別玩小氣把劇雪藏。
都是續集還有齣《On Call 36小時II》,吳啟華再穿醫生袍,變相成了「妙手Special」,馬國明要靠邊站,之前叫好的「一件頭」面對經典「程至美」,如能勢均力敵馬明肯定「升呢」!
反而黎耀祥再拍《巾幗梟雄3之諜血長天》,「巾幗」鄧萃雯變了胡杏兒,吸引力大大打折扣,無晒興趣。
朱國亮
逢一、三、五
爽視 視彈 衝上 雲霄 On Call 朱國 國亮
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