John Templeton 的「準備」投資法 土著
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_7b56dde001014hxx.html非常經典的訪談,亮點如下:
從1940年到現在,72年間經歷了14次大事件,每次都給智慧投資人創造了「貪婪」契機。
歷史不會簡單重複,但會驚人地相似,平均5年一次的貪婪機會,逮住它們的秘訣就是
「準備」。
1.準備「智慧」資本。
2.準備「現金」資本。
During the Value Investor's
Conference on the past Saturday, Lauren Templeton, the great grand
niece of Sir John Templeton, shared her insight on the success of
Sir John Templeton. Lauren now runs her own investment firm, Lauren
Templeton Capital Management. Thanks to Lauren for sharing the
presentation.
Sir John
Templeton went to Yale and paid his tuition by taking three jobs
and playing at poker tables. He visited 40 countries after college.
His mother thought he was dead while he was traveling. Eventually
he came back with a much better understanding of the world. This
laid the foundation for him as a global investor. At the eve of
World War II, he borrowed $10,000 and bought all 140 stocks under
$1 on the NYSE. He lost money on only four of them. He turned the
money into $40,000.
These are
the 15 essential personal attributes that Sir John Templeton
thought a successful investor needs:
1. Self-reliance
2. Reasonable risk taking
3. Sense of stewardship
4. A drive towards diversity
5. Bargain-hunting mentality
6. Broad social and political awareness
7. Flexibility
8. Devote large amounts of time to study
9. An ability to retreat from daily pressures
10. Develop an extensive friendship network
11. Patience
12. Thought control
13. Positive thinking
14. Simplicity
15. Great intuitive powers
Sir John Templeton was always very calm. He took a walk every day
after lunch. He was the friend and mentor of Jim Rogers and
Prem Watsa.
These are some of his quotes Lauren shared:
「A MAJOR CAUSE OF HIGHER PRICES is higher prices; but when the
trend is reversed, then lower prices lead to still lower prices. To
buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others
are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the
greatest ultimate rewards.」
「Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on
optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the
best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time
to sell.」
「If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must
do things differently from the crowd.」
Successful value investor could take advantage of the crisis
events:(14次危機)
1. Attack on Pearl Harbor (1941)
2. Korean War (1950)
3. President Eisenhower's Heart Attack (1955)
4. Blue Monday (1962)
5. Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
6. President Kennedy Assassination (1963)
7. Black Monday 1987 Crash
8. United Airlines LBO Failure (1989)
9. Persian Gulf War (1990)
10. Tequila Crisis (1994)
11. Asian Financial Crisis (1997-98)
12. September 11
13. Financial Crisis 2008-2009
14. European Debt Crisis (2010 - ?)
How to take advantage of these events? Preparation,
Preparation, Preparation
· Always store some funds in reserves. One basis for his thrift is
he sought out crises.
「現金」資本
· Maintain a wish list. He had already researched and prepared a
list of companies he wanted to own at a bargain price.
「智慧」資本
· Maintain good-to-cancel limit orders in the market 20% below the
current price.
· An optimist, he held a fundamental belief in the continued
innovation, ambitions and ingenuity of others.