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John Templeton 的「準備」投資法 土著

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_7b56dde001014hxx.html
非常經典的訪談,亮點如下:
 
從1940年到現在,72年間經歷了14次大事件,每次都給智慧投資人創造了「貪婪」契機。
歷史不會簡單重複,但會驚人地相似,平均5年一次的貪婪機會,逮住它們的秘訣就是
「準備」。
 
1.準備「智慧」資本。
2.準備「現金」資本。
 
 
During the Value Investor'sConference on the past Saturday, Lauren Templeton, the great grandniece of Sir John Templeton, shared her insight on the success ofSir John Templeton. Lauren now runs her own investment firm, LaurenTempleton Capital Management. Thanks to Lauren for sharing thepresentation.

    Sir JohnTempleton went to Yale and paid his tuition by taking three jobsand playing at poker tables. He visited 40 countries after college.His mother thought he was dead while he was traveling. Eventuallyhe came back with a much better understanding of the world. Thislaid the foundation for him as a global investor. At the eve ofWorld War II, he borrowed $10,000 and bought all 140 stocks under$1 on the NYSE. He lost money on only four of them. He turned themoney into $40,000.

    These arethe 15 essential personal attributes that Sir John Templetonthought a successful investor needs:

1. Self-reliance
2. Reasonable risk taking
3. Sense of stewardship
4. A drive towards diversity
5. Bargain-hunting mentality
6. Broad social and political awareness
7. Flexibility
8. Devote large amounts of time to study
9. An ability to retreat from daily pressures
10. Develop an extensive friendship network
11. Patience
12. Thought control
13. Positive thinking
14. Simplicity
15. Great intuitive powers

Sir John Templeton was always very calm. He took a walk every dayafter lunch. He was the friend and mentor of Jim Rogers andPrem Watsa.

These are some of his quotes Lauren shared:

「A MAJOR CAUSE OF HIGHER PRICES is higher prices; but when thetrend is reversed, then lower prices lead to still lower prices. Tobuy when others are despondently selling and to sell when othersare avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays thegreatest ultimate rewards.」

「Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature onoptimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is thebest time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best timeto sell.」

「If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you mustdo things differently from the crowd.」

Successful value investor could take advantage of the crisisevents:(14次危機)

1. Attack on Pearl Harbor (1941)
2. Korean War (1950)
3. President Eisenhower's Heart Attack (1955)
4. Blue Monday (1962)
5. Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
6. President Kennedy Assassination (1963)
7. Black Monday 1987 Crash
8. United Airlines LBO Failure (1989)
9. Persian Gulf War (1990)
10. Tequila Crisis (1994)
11. Asian Financial Crisis (1997-98)
12. September 11
13. Financial Crisis 2008-2009
14. European Debt Crisis (2010 - ?)

How to take advantage of these events? Preparation,Preparation, Preparation

· Always store some funds in reserves. One basis for his thrift ishe sought out crises.
「現金」資本
· Maintain a wish list. He had already researched and prepared alist of companies he wanted to own at a bargain price.
「智慧」資本
· Maintain good-to-cancel limit orders in the market 20% below thecurrent price.
· An optimist, he held a fundamental belief in the continuedinnovation, ambitions and ingenuity of others.


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