From
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/lgaim-foolman/article?mid=393
以下設定一隻股票乜,股票1蚊,派息5仙,即5釐,股價每年下跌10%,本息續存
股數 股價 股利 紅股數 市值
10000 1 500 500 10500
10500 0.9 525 583 9450
11083 0.81 554 684 8977
11767 0.729 588 806 8578
12573 0.683 629 921 8587
13494 0.615 675 1097 8299
14591 0.553 729 1318 8069
真係多多都唔夠蝕,身家年年縮水,息都蝕埋,買左佢實比人笑到面黃
但是股票只是短期下跌又如何?
股票甲,股票1蚊,派息5仙,即5釐,並且每年增加派息10%,股價每年上升10%,本息續存,20年後股價6.096
股價 股 數 市值 股息 息率
1 10000 10000 500 0.05
1.1 10454.5 +4.55% 11500 +15.00% 575 +15.00% 0.055
1.21 10929.5 +4.54% 13224.7 +14.98% 661 +14.96% 0.0605
1.33 11426.5 +4.55% 15197.2 +14.92% 760 +14.98% 0.06655
1.46 11946 +4.55% 17441.2 +14.77% 874.5 +15.07% 0.0732
1.606 12490.5 +4.56% 20059.7 +15.01% 1005.5 +14.98% 0.0805
1.767 13059.7 +4.56% 23076.5 +15.03% 1156.4 +15.00% 0.08855
1.943 13655 +4.56% 26531.7 +14.97% 1330 +15.01% 0.0974
2.137 14277.4 +4.56% 30510.8 +15.00% 1527.7 +14.86% 0.107
2.35 14927.5 +4.55% 35079.6 +14.97% 1757 +15.01% 0.1177
2.585 15607.2 +4.55% 40344.6 +15.01% 2020.7 +15.01% 0.1295
2.844 16317.8 +4.55% 46407.8 +15.03% 2324.5 +15.03% 0.1425
3.128 17060.8 +4.55% 53366.2 +14.99% 2671.4 +14.92% 0.1566
3.441 17837 +4.55% 61377.1 +15.01% 3072 +15.00% 0.1722
3.785 18648.6 +4.55% 70585 +15.00% 3532 +14.97% 0.1894
4.164 19497 +4.55% 81182.5 +15.01% 4061 +14.98% 0.2083
4.58 20383.7 +4.55% 93372.5 +15.02% 4670 +15.00% 0.2291
5.038 21310.7 +4.55% 107363.3+14.98% 5370 +14.99% 0.252
5.542 22279.7 +4.55% 123570 +15.10% 6175.9 +15.01% 0.2772
6.096 23292.8 +4.55% 141992.9+14.91% 7102.4 +15.00% 0.3049
股票乙,股票1蚊,派息5仙,即5釐,並且每年增加派息10%,股價下跌10%,跌5年之後以10%回升,本息續存,20年後股價2.74
股價 股數 市值 股息 息率
1 10000 10000 500 0.05
0.9 10500 +5 % 9450 -5.5 % 577.5 +15.5 % 0.055
0.81 11213 +6.79 % 9082.5 -4.05 % 678.4 +17.47% 0.0605
0.73 12143.5 +8.3 % 8864.8 -2.4 % 808 +19.10% 0.06655
0.656 13375 +10.01% 8774 -1.02 % 979 +21.16% 0.0732
0.722 14731.7 +10.14% 10636.3 +21.22 % 1185.9 +21.13% 0.0808
0.794 16225.7 +10.14% 12883.2 +21.12% 1436.8 +21.16% 0.08855
0.873 17871.3 +10.14% 15601.2 +21.10% 1740.7 +21.15% 0.0974
0.96 19684.5 +10.15% 18897.1 +21.12% 2106.2 +20.99% 0.107
1.06 21679 +10.13% 22979.7 +21.60% 2551.6 +21.15% 0.1177
1.16 23875.6 +10.13% 27695.7 +20.52% 3091.9 +21.17% 0.1295
1.28 26295.4 +10.14% 33658.1 +21.53% 3747.1 +21.19% 0.1425
1.41 28961.9 +10.14% 40836.3 +21.33% 4535.4 +21.04% 0.1566
1.55 31896 +10.13% 49438.8 +21.07% 5492.5 +21.10% 0.1722
1.7 35126.9 +10.13% 59715.7 +20.79% 6653 +21.13% 0.1894
1.87 38684.6 +10.13% 72340.2 +21.14% 8058 +21.12% 0.2083
2.06 42602 +10.13% 87760.1 +21.32% 9760 +21.12% 0.2291
2.26 46915.4 +10.12% 106028.8 +20.82% 11822.7 +21.13% 0.252
2.49 51665.4 +10.12% 128646.8 +21.33% 14321.7 +21.14% 0.2772
2.74 56896.4 +10.12% 155896.1 +21.18% 17347.7 +21.13% 0.3049
成地眼鏡碎,股票乙的市價居然比甲大,而且股息是甲的兩倍以上,即係乙暗中發左達,而甲仲可以成日笑佢
值得留意的是投資標的只是一間年增長10%的普通公司,成街都係,而投資組合卻以21%的比率在成長
另外由於股息是甲的兩倍以上,因此乙的持有人一早就財務自由,遠不是甲可比的
投資回報=股價x股數 ,股數是同股價有同樣影響力的變量,卻被世人所忽視,股價下跌時將股息再投資而增加股數,令將來的股息加速,即使投資標的是維他奶,一樣可以遠遠跑贏中人壽,從而無視公司的品質,這就是用戰術扭轉普通公司在戰略上的劣勢,從現象來看,是後發制人
(待續)