ZKIZ Archives


Jesse Livermore -- How To Trade In Stocks CUP



看到友Blog評論這本書,由於這書是我認為任何投資者都非讀不可的類別,所以也加入評論一下。

首先要明白這本書的寫作背景。這本書是 Jesse Livermore 在晚期投機失敗後潦倒之作,寫作動機不明,可能是想藉賣書籌錢東山再起(?)不論如何,這書總結了他自己一生以來投機的成功和失敗經驗得來的心法,當中絕大部份大原則都適用至今,十分值得學習。

很多人認為 Jesse Livermore 最後投機失敗,並且因精神問題而自殺,那他的投機方法就一無可取,其實錯過了一塊重要的寶藏。任何曾經顯赫一時的名將,總有可取之處。更何況 Jesse Livermore 這個沒有受過什麼高深教育的奇才,有一些 Schizoid Personality,最後演變成為病態的精神和婚姻問題,以致他無法全心理性地投機,導致失敗也可以理解。

首先,Jesse Livermore 他自己的說話也總結了投機的主要核心思想:

Wall Street never changed, the pockets change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.

All through time, people have basically acted and re-acted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope -- that is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.

他主張投機要有嚴肅的態度:Anyone who is inclined to speculate should look at speculation as a "business" and treat it as such and not regard it as a pure gamble as so many people are apt to do.

他的投機心法主要有幾個重點:

1. Timing is everything. You can beat a horse race, but you can't beat the races. 嚴選時機十分重要:Experience has proved to me that the real money made in speculating has been: "IN COMMITMENTS IN A STOCK OR COMMODITY SHOWING A PROFIT FROM THE START"

2. Markets are never wrong --- opinions often are. If you believe it likely to have a definite bullish or bearish effect marketwise, don't back your judgement "UNTIL THE ACTION OF THE MARKET ITSELF CONFIRMS YOUR OPINION".

3. Emotion control --- It is a human trait to be "HOPEFUL" and equally so to be "FEARFUL", but when you inject hope and fear into the business of speculation, you are faced with a very formidable hazard, because you are apt to get the two confused and in reverse positions.

4. Money Management --- Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do --

  •  As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be hurry to take a profit. You know you are right, because if you were not, you would have no profit at all. Let it ride and ride along with it.
  • You should protect youself by selling your stock before the loss assumes larger proportions. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking the first small loss.
  • It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses.
  • When the margin call reaches you, close your accont --- never meet a margin call.
  • Keep cash reserve. Never make any trade unless you know you can do so with financial safety. I recommended parking fifty percent of your profits from a successful trade, especially where you doubled your original capital. Set this money aside, put it in the bank, hold it in reserve. The single largest regret I have never hand in my financial life was not paying enough attention to this rule.

5. Pivotal points --- I become a buyer as soon as a stock makes a "new high on its movement, after having had a normal reaction".  Major pivotal points can often be accompanied by a heavy increase in "VOLUME".

6. Trend following -- Susscessful traders always follow the line of the least resistance. The trend is your friend.

7. Watch the market leaders, the stocks that have led the charge upward in a bull market. Trade the leading stocks in the leading groups. Behind these major movements is an resistable force.

8. Observe sister stocks --- Understanding industry group action is essential to successful trading. The most intelligent way to get one's mind attuned to market conditions and to be successful is to make a deep study of Industry Groups in order to distinguish the good groups from the bad: get along of those which are in promising position and get out of those Industry Groups which are not.

假如讀者想在此書追尋確實的「方法」照做,將會失望。這書是心法多於手法,而在他那個年代,沒有圖表、沒有電腦、沒有便利的即時報價、即時新聞和公司資料,技術分析亦鮮有人使用,也是讀者值得要留意的地方。

不過肯定的是,他的「心法」甚至是投機的金科玉律,至今已被廣泛使用及認同。