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The Future Is Now：如何了解並布局工業4.0？

來源: http://wallstreetcn.com/node/211372

“工業4.0消滅淘寶只需十年。”就在阿里巴巴剛剛創造了互聯網企業IPO神話之後，這話顯得十分誇張，但是近日又在網絡上流傳甚廣。

 

那麽到底什麽是工業4.0？

簡單的說“工業4.0”，是以智能制造為主導的第四次工業革命。

隨著信息技術與工業技術的高度融合，網絡、計算機技術、信息技術、軟件與自動化技術的深度交織產生新的價值模型，在制造領域，這種資源、信息、物品和人相互關聯的“虛擬網絡-實體物理系統（Cyber-Physical System，CPS）”，德國人稱其為“工業4.0”。

工業4.0概念首先由德國提出。2013年4月德國在漢諾威工業博覽會上首次發布《實施“工業4.0”戰略建議書》，德國電氣電子和信息技術協會於2013 年12 月發布“工業4.0”標準化路線圖。2014 年漢諾威工業博覽會的主題“融合的工業——下一步”很好地契合了德國自2013 年以來力推的創新概念“工業4.0”。

東方證券對工業4.0的定義是：在現代智能機器人、傳感器、數據存儲和計算能力實現突破的條件下，通過工業互聯網將供應鏈、生產過程和倉儲物流智能連接，從而實現智能生產的“四化”：供應和倉儲成本較小化，生產過程全自動化，需求相應速度較大化和產品個性化。

工業4.0的終極目的是使制造業脫離勞動力稟賦的桎梏，將全流程成本降到較低，從而實現制造業競爭力的較大化。在4.0 時代，不僅制造環節的人工將得到節省（機器人為主體的自動化生產連線），前端供應鏈管理、生產計劃（互聯網接入，實施管理訂單）、後端倉儲物流管理（WMS+自動化立體倉庫）都將實現實現無人化，以及較低的渠道庫存和物流成本。

 

工業4.0的特點是什麽？

回顧前三次工業革命，實際上是應用機械、電氣和信息技術等越來越先進的工具逐步將人力從生產中解放，從而提高生產效率、降低生產成本的過程。而對於即將到來的工業革命4.0，一項更為偉大的工具 – 互聯網將深度參與到生產過程中去，從而將制造業對勞動力的依賴和生產成本的優化帶到一個全新的高度。

1）工業革命1.0：18 世紀末期始於英國的第一次工業革命，19 世紀中葉結束。這次工業革命的結果是機械生產代替了手工勞動，經濟社會從以農業、手工業為基礎轉型到了以工業以及機械制造帶動經濟發展的模式。

2）工業革命 2.0：第二次工業領域大變革發生在20 世紀初期，形成生產線生產的階段。通過零部件生產與產品裝配的成功分離，開創了產品批量生產的新模式。

3）工業革命3.0：20 世紀70 年代以後，隨著電子工程和信息技術充實到工業過程之中，實現了生產的優化和自動化。自此，機械能夠逐步替代人類作業。

中金公司認為，與現行的大規模、批量化生產相對應，工業4.0 將確保多批次，小產量狀態下產業的獲利能力，確保工藝流程的靈活性和資源利用率。這種生產模式成功後，能夠提供品種更豐富的個性化、功能更齊全的多樣性、性能更穩定的高質量、使用更人性化的產品，中國依靠大規模工業化生產的、高性價比產品的吸引力將會降低。

東方證券指出，互聯網讓工廠設備“能說話，會思考”：

在理想化的智能車間里，所有加工設備、待加工部件（運輸小車）、裝料機器人都裝有CPS，都具有無線上網功能。待加工部件不通過中央控制器，直接與加工設備聯系確定，到哪臺設備進行哪些加工。工件控制工廠負責下道工序的加工設備直接調用待加工件，獨立自主的運輸小車根據地下鋪設的感應線路，把工件送給裝料機器手。所有後續工序需要的產品信息，包括生產銷售文件都由各工件自己攜帶。如果出現差錯，或顧客的特別要求與現有的CAM 數據不符，研發部的工程師會立刻得到報警。補充改進措施會立刻在一個虛擬的試驗環境下檢查，然後發給工件。

 

為什麽要推動工業4.0？

隨著人口紅利的消失，勞動力供給減少、人工成本上升和新一代勞動力制造業就業意願的下降，對我國制造業的國際競爭力形成了巨大制約。有數據顯示中國沿海地區勞動力綜合成本已經與美國本土部分地區接近。客觀上說，推進“工業化和信息化”融合，搶先進入“工業4.0”時代，以保持第一大支出產業-制造業競爭力，是中國無法不選擇的一個命題。

李克強總理2014年10月份訪德期間簽訂“工業4.0”戰略合作框架，顯示出高層對制造業4.0升級改造的強力支持，工業4.0大概率將上升到國家戰略高度。

 

工業4.0在國際上的發展情況

中金指出在國際分工體系中德國成為市場主導者：

德國成為新一代工業生產技術(即CPS)的供應國和主導市場（標準制定者、領先供應商），從而使德國制造業在持續發展的前提下提升它的全球競爭力。意味著德國人創建了新的生產環境，包括新的管理、流程、模型等，還提供新的智能生產裝備和新的技術手段。將推動德國的機器人、制造成套裝備、IT 技術、控制技術、信息技術等核心產業的變革，並加入到工業4.0 體系內，再借助這新的工業體系生產制造出來的產品沖擊世界原有生產體系中的產品，“確保了德國制造業的未來”。

德國的工業4.0 概念是建立在德國在自動化裝備全球領先的優勢地位上，幾乎所有國內的大型自動化工業企業，以及上千的中小企業也將加入到這一體系里去。西門子、菲尼克斯電氣、倍福、施耐德電氣、庫卡等都在朝這一方向努力。

► 西門子（Siemens）：憑借全集成自動化（TIA）和“數字化企業平臺”，西門子長久以來占據著信息技術集成領域的領導地位。西門子公司還將與德國弗勞恩霍夫研究院以及大眾汽車公司，通過利用產品生命周期管理軟件（PLM）進行虛擬生產規劃，可降低生產線上機器人的能耗高達50%。

► 菲尼克斯電氣（Phoenix Contact）：全面投入Profinet 工業以太網的開發，目前形成了全面的基於Profinet 工業以太網的競爭力。

► 倍福（Beckhoff）：與傳感器、視覺系統及機械廠商一起參與“科技自動化-系統化工程”與“極速控制-標準加工設備能效提升”兩個項目的實施。

► 施耐德電氣（Schneider Electric）：推出的EcoStruxure 能效管理平臺，除了實現了對電力、工業、建築樓宇、數據中心和安防5 大領域的技術和專業經驗的整合，EcoStruxure 與其子系統更強調軟件帶來的靈活性。

► 羅克韋爾自動化（Rockwell Automation）：通過與思科密切合作，推進標準以太網EtherNet/IP 快速發展。Ethernet/IP 是未經修改的以太網標準，可以和現在所有的標準以太網設備透明銜接，使得產業融合成為可能。值得關註的是：2014 年4 月全球最大的工業展會“漢諾威工業博覽會”上，西門子展示的新一代汽車生產線吸引了很多人。從表面來看只是機器人對生產線上的車體進行組裝，任何一個汽車工廠都有這樣的組裝線。不過，制造的思路卻完全不同。在該生產線上，車體與機器人一邊“對話”一邊進行組裝。其工作原理為在車體內嵌入IC 標簽，記錄汽車型號、必要零部件以及組裝順序等信息。車體接近機器人時會發出“需要5 扇門”等指示。機器人會按照指示進行作業。

 

其他工業化先進國家也在積極推進“新工業戰略”

與德國的工業4.0 相比，其他工業化國家雖然未普遍使用這一術語，但盡可能降低生產操作成本、提高靈活性和加快創新周期也是這些國家的共同目標。

► 美國：在美國，GE 主導的“工業互聯網”革命同樣如火如荼，已經成為美國“制造業回歸”的一項重要內容。

與工業4.0 的基本理念相似，它同樣倡導將人、數據和機器連接起來，形成開放而全球化的工業網絡，但其內涵已經超越制造過程以及制造業本身，跨越產品生命周期的整個價值鏈，涵蓋航空、能源、交通、醫療等更多工業領域（九大平臺）。

相比於西門子的“工業4.0”，GE 的“工業互聯網”方案更加註重軟件、網絡、大數據等對於工業領域的服務方式的顛覆—— 與德國強調的“硬”制造不同，“軟”服務恰恰是軟件和互聯網經濟發達的美國經濟較為擅長的。

根據GE 的預測，在美國，工業互聯網能夠使生產率每年提高1%-1.5%，那麽未來20 年，它將使美國人的平均收入比當前水平提高25%-40%；如果世界其他地區能確保實現美國生產率增長的一半，那麽工業互聯網在此期間會為全球GDP 增加10 萬億-15 萬億美元—— 相當於再創一個美國經濟。

► 日本：一是采用“小生產線”的企業增多，本田公司通過采取新技術減少噴漆次數、減少熱處理工序等措施把生產線縮短了40%，並通過改變車身結構設計把焊接生產線由18 道工序減少為9 道，建成了世界最短的高端車型生產線。二是采用小型設備的企業增多，日本電裝公司對鋁壓鑄件的生產設備、工藝進行改革，使得鑄造線生產成本降低了30%，設備面積減少80%，能源消費量降低50%。三是通過機器人、無人搬運機、無人工廠、“細胞生產方式”等突破成本瓶頸，佳能公司從“細胞生產方式”到“機械細胞方式”，再到世界首個數碼照相機無人工廠，大幅度地提高了成本競爭力。

此外政府加大了開發力度，加大對3D 打印機等尖端技術的財政投入。2014 年，經濟產業省繼續把3D 打印機列為優先政策扶持對象，計劃當年投資45 億日元，實施名為“以3D 造型技術為核心的產品制造革命”的大規模研究開發項目，開發世界最高水平的金屬粉末造型用3D 打印機。

 

中國面臨什麽樣的挑戰和機遇

東方證券指出，美德等發達國家的工業革命信號給我國制造業敲響了警鐘。歐洲計劃到2030 年將其制造業占GDP的份額提高5個百分點，而競爭的矛頭即直指世界第一制造業大國 - 中國。

反觀我國，隨著人口紅利的消失，勞動力供給減少、人工成本上升和新一代勞動力制造業就業意願的下降，對我國制造業的國際競爭力形成了巨大制約。根據美國某咨詢機構統計，中國沿海地區勞動力單位綜合成本已經與美國本土部分地區接近。

客觀上說，搶先進入“工業4.0”時代、保持第一大支出產業 - 制造業競爭力，是中國無法不選擇的一個命題。

中國作為生產1/3 世界的制造大國如果不積極應對，一方面，規模化生產模式生產出來的產品將受到挑戰；另一方面，產業升級時將被動接受德國的新標準、新設備。

近幾年來，國家及各級政府不斷推出支持工業機器人行業發展的政策，推動行業發展。例如上海 、昆山、徐州、蕪湖等多地規劃了機器人產業園，推出政府引導資金、所得稅優惠等多項產業扶持政策。2013 年11 月，浙江省提出在未來五年年均實施“機器換人”項目5000 項、完成技術改造投入5000 億元。

2014 年10 月，李克強總理訪問德國期間，在第三輪中德政府磋商後發表的《中德合作行動綱要》中宣布，兩國將開展“工業4.0”合作，該領域合作有望成為中德未來產業合作的新方向。

中國社會科學院工業經濟研究所黃群慧等認為，“工業4.0”不僅會削弱中國等發展中國家的低成本比較優勢，而且有利於發達國家形成新的競爭優勢，通過發展現代裝備制造業控制產業制高點，發達國家可以運用現代制造技術和制造系統裝備傳統產業來提高傳統產業的生產效率，通過裝備新興產業來強化新興技術的工程化和產業化能力。同時，其在高端服務業的領先優勢也可能被進一步強化。

因此，後發國家的產業趕超將面臨來自發達國家的全方位抑制。“第三次工業革命”本質是人機關系的深刻變化，這種變化大大增加了對知識和技能的需求。而與先進制造技術相適應的知識和技能的形成和積累，恰恰是中國這樣的發展中國家遇到的最大挑戰。

工業4.0離真正的產業化大規模應用還有相當長的路要走。中金公司在報告中指出：提高生產效率、產品質量、產品能效以及自動化整體水平，降低生產能耗是我國當前制造業轉型的第一步。目前我國已經在兩化深度融合、智能制造裝備重大專項、戰略性新興產業等方面有了諸多布局。中央和各地方政府也在紛紛支持工業機器人、3D 打印等新型智能制造項目的發展。

 

工業4.0應該關註國內那些公司

中金公司在報告中看好機器人、智能工具、智能儀器儀表等智能制造設備。主要因為：

1）系統集成商的業績能夠快速釋放，2）隨著制造業自動化程度的提升，單個集成項目的合同額大幅提高，集聚效應開始顯現，3）現在從事機器人相關集成的兩化融合企業有望統治未來的“智能工廠”的大集成。

中金重點推薦機器人和和利時，關註博實股份：

東方證券則將工業4.0產業分為上中下遊三部分企業，並看好智能工廠解決方案提供商：

從工業4.0 產業鏈的上遊看，現代智能工廠所高度依賴的四大基礎條件 – 傳感器（數據采集）、大容量存儲（數據存儲）、大數據計算能力（數據處理）和工業以太網（數據通信），以及執行單元-智能機器人，均是工業4.0 實施的關鍵要素。智能工廠這種新型生產模式的興起，必將帶來機器人的大規模普及、傳感器的大量使用，以及工業大數據服務商和通信服務商的興起。東方證券建議關註工業以太網服務商東土科技、管理軟件提供商用友軟件、傳感器供應商華天科技和漢威電子等。

從工業4.0 產業鏈下遊看，智能工廠將大幅節省勞動成本、提高生產效率、提升客戶體驗，增強制造廠商的競爭優勢。較早適應4.0 改造的產業和廠商將先受益。建議關註雲印刷運營商長榮股份。

東方證券看好工業4.0 產業鏈中遊環節，即軟硬結合的行業解決方案提供商、智能工廠總包商掌握核心的技術訣竅，也是智能工廠模式興起的直接受益者。由於在中國大部分行業並沒有成熟的智能工廠解決方案，先進入者往往具有較強的先發優勢，在細分行業形成較高進入壁壘。東方證券看好智能工廠行業方案提供商，新松機器人、軟控股份、藍英裝備、博實股份、天奇股份、華昌達、京山輕機、慈星股份、上工申貝等。

（更多精彩財經資訊，點擊這里下載華爾街見聞App)

The big short 巴黎的價值投資

來源: http://parisvalueinvesting.blogspot.hk/2014/12/the-big-shot.html

巴黎：

筆者blog友藏龍伏虎，其中是70/80後兄，他是期權專家，以下是他一實戰：

70/80後兄：

http://hk70s.blogspot.hk/2014/12/blog-post_3.html

呢隻內銀由4.7 升到今日6.58....
買入紀錄以下有LINK



刻下有三個諗法去轉倉


另外, 手頭上現金約有45萬, 唔多又唔少, 如收埋今年股息再加明年工作收入所儲, 2015 年年尾會有170 萬現金, 所以等買貨又得, 沽哂佢就無謂了...


說開期權，筆者7月也決定了一個風險更小的策略，這也是我參考Michael Burry 2008年big shor t 次按債的策略：

1一邊是沽12月5支H內銀較市價有5%相差的價外Call，收Premium
2另一邊是買入12月at the money 的5支A內銀call，付Premium。

背後的邏輯是：若underlying assets value 是價值1千萬，自己要先付出倆者premium的差約3% 30萬。用這30萬，賭1千萬值的A股或H股值的15%（150萬）內銀差價會收窄，唯一會敗的可能是滬港通之後，H股價大於A股15%的現象不單不收窄，還增加至20%以上。而任何內銀AH差價收窄到12%以下的，就是我的純利。

筆者實在想不到為何A價在滬港通車後還會加闊便宜過H，但就是怕一萬，所以買多一個保險。

勿胡亂Catch the Falling Knives

自三月中博士蛙(1698)因auditor辭職而停牌事件至今，不少中資民企股在種種原因(內部企業+行業+市況等風險)而大幅下挫，兩星期內市值不見20%-40%亦不難見到。筆者相信博士蛙事件僅是中資私營企業業務艱難的冰山一角，不難從各種民企"死因"看出眉頭:

1) Account Receivables大升(高於revenue上升速度)，暗示民企要容許客戶延遲付款，削弱現金流
2) 債務水平大幅上升，經營現金轉弱，便要借錢解燃眉之急
3) 降低股息水平，都是現金流的問題
4) Profit margin受壓，除了高通脹下成本高企之外，不少行業(如Sportswear版塊)面對嚴重的割價清存貨的情況
5) 種種原因亦令部份民企管理層鋌而走險，令會計帳目出現問題

種括來說，中資民企股大洗倉並非僅是個別公司和行業問題，而是中國宏觀經濟轉弱的微兆。2月份HSBC PMI預值低見48、中國首2月工業企業盈利下跌5%，都是有力的佐證。

中資民企股短期大挫後，是否有低吸的機遇? 雖然不排除有technical rebound的可能性，筆者的做法是避免"Catch the Falling Knives"。除了突然停牌的風險外，不少民企股股價走勢很凶險，而且2012年盈利有大跌風險。

現時投資重點以1) 優質國家背景的燃氣股, 2) 去i-phone化受惠的中移動(941), 3) 優質國家背景的醫药股為主。相對而論，市場傾向喜好盈利和現金流穩定，而P/E較高的優質實力股

Splash N Dash Aquathon Series Race 4 - The Finale: 自我感覺良好

Race 4 October 10, 2010 (港島淺水灣)


Challenge: 500m swim; 5km run; 500m swim
Sprint: 375m swim； 2.5km run

上星期日，10年10月10日，終於黎到今年整個系列最後一場比賽，地點重回跟第一場比賽路線相同既淺水灣．可以話係巧合又或者十月既氣候應該如此，當日既天氣，由先前幾日風和日麗到當日忽然轉冷及有點微雨，感覺上水溫有點冷，不過就蠻適合跑步．情況跟四月時第一場好類似，只不過自己心情及準備都唔同咗．

上次提到，第三場比賽之後，一直為自己當日發揮唔出應有水平（起碼跟練習時情況大有分別）而耿耿於懷．另外自己都想知道，點解第三場時候臨場點解表現得咁論盡．結果喺第三及第四場之間既兩個週末，特別相約一樣有參加比賽，又比自己有經驗及技巧既朋友安排加操及請教．目標好簡單：我要游好呢場水及做好呢場比賽！

講番比賽情況，做好適當既熱身後，聽過工作人員講解比賽描述，緩緩行到起點區準備起步．或可以講成緊張或策略保守，自己選擇留喺較後位置起步．一來知道自己時間唔算快，避免被其他參加者帶快；二來留喺較後位置起步，游水爭位情況亦應該冇咁緊張，自己可以有更多空間去發揮．

跳進海內之後，之前兩個週末特訓既付出果然有用，今次終於可以用水自己既節奏去游，而且亦應用咗朋友指導既技巧（特別係如何保持向前面目標游）．至於爭位情況其實無可避免，特別係轉游泳方向時，會同時間大量參加者向浮泡附近爭線．有過前兩場既經驗，今次當發現身旁有其他參加者爭位時，適當地留意互相速度上既分別，配合划水動作，利用手部把對方推開，令自己原來游泳路線得以保持．結果大部份時間（九成）可以用上自由式完成游泳部份及轉項時既準備，以18'45"完成(9/14 或 34/44），時間上比第一場完成時間快咗差不多三分半鐘．

回顧番整個系列，參加比賽前，一直認定自己泳術不精：最遠都只係海灘游出過浮台；而中學時從未參加過游泳比賽，更甚至水運會報咗名做逃兵唔參賽；就算到今天，都係繼續用唔正確既蛙腳去踢水。我知自己游得唔快，但我會保持練習時既節奏及姿勢，堅持最後游到終點。所以到目前一刻，能夠做到呢個程度及克服呢個心理樽頸，自我感覺實在良好！

今年可以大膽踏出呢一步，參加咗呢三場兩項鐵人比賽又三場比賽共游咗375米加270米加375米，除咗自己貪玩兼心中有團火外，真係要多謝朋友既鼓勵及指導，同埋呢個比賽形式好適合肥龍呢類初哥及氣氛一流。我會更努力練習，下年再參加再做好啲！

The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer
我们最爱的投资之道

Investing is often described as the process of laying out money now in the expectation of receiving more money in the future. At Berkshire we take a more demanding approach, defining investing as the transfer to others of purchasing power now with the reasoned expectation of receiving more purchasing power – after taxes have been paid on nominal gains – in the future. More succinctly, investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date.

From our definition there flows an important corollary: The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street term encompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but rather by the probability – the reasoned probability – of that investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk.

風險即係損失的可能性。企業的股價雖然激烈波動，可是卻不代表風險惡劣，因為只要企業的價值陸續的合理增加，它反而是最安全的投資。另一方面，固價的投資，卻隱藏了風險。

（1）固息投資
Investments that are denominated in a given currency include money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments. Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as “safe.” In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets. Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge.

High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments – and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label.


（2）黃金
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will pay more for them in the future.

The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful).

Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.

Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400
million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most
profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?

Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.

（3）Productive asset
My own preference – and you knew this was coming – is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. Ideally, these assets should have the ability in inflationary times to deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring a minimum of new capital investment. Farms, real estate, and many businesses such as Coca-Cola, IBM and our own See’s Candy meet that double-barreled test. Certain other companies – think of our regulated utilities, for example – fail it because inflation places heavy capital requirements on them. To earn more, their owners must invest more. Even so, these investments will remain superior to nonproductive or currency-based assets.

Whether the currency a century from now is based on gold, seashells, shark teeth, or a piece of paper (as today), people will be willing to exchange a couple of minutes of their daily labor for a Coca-Cola or some See’s peanut brittle. In the future the U.S. population will move more goods, consume more food, and require more living space than it does now. People will forever exchange what they produce for what others produce.


如果你在低息時期買入（政府債券，定期存款），它就是外表貼着“安全”，裡面卻是通縮無底洞，它會吸幹你的購買力。但是，如果你在高息時期買了，你就是最幸福的人了。

如果你買了高息又能年年合理增加的固息投資，你就是最XXXX幸福的人了。

或者，你認為這是天方夜譚，只有童話才有的情節。如果你認真想一想2009年初的金融風暴，輕而易舉就能買到高息又能年年合理增值的投資。（例如領匯）

或者，你認為這是太久了的馬後炮。那麼2011年末歐洲五豬的風波，你是可以找到高息又能年年合理增值的投資。（例如置富產業信託）（例如在新加波就出現了10%息的產業信託）

企業（股票）亦是如此。

問題是，你是否了解投資的真義？你是否了解自己的局限（能力）？你是否願意誠實接受自己，只在自己能力圈內作投資？


前輩的智慧：
Our country’s businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial “cows” will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of “milk” to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well). Berkshire’s goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses. Our first choice will be to own them in their entirety – but we will also be owners by way of holding sizable amounts of marketable stocks. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we’ve examined. More important, it will be by far the safest.

一只牛，亦是如此。

Monkey with the FCUK t-shirt

Always love the Saturday morning, especially after a raining night, the air is so clean and fresh.

Checked the overnight markets. DOW closed at 10,193.39 +125.38 (1.25%). The content, I saw a group of monkey.

As I always tell others (also myself) to get the market defination right before elaborating further, how to profit from the market.

My defination of market;
(1) A place where legalized all the conman job. OR
(2) A place where, monkey see monkey do.

See the below content;

“Technically speaking we’re very oversold -- really that’s the understatement of the year,” said Walter Todd, who helps manage about $800 million at Greenwood Capital in Greenwood, South Carolina. “I’d rather be buying now than I would three weeks ago.”

“It’s an enormous document -- the devil will be in the details,” said David Katz, chief investment officer at Matrix Asset Advisors Inc. in New York, which manages $1.2 billion. “The early read is that it’s not as onerous as some feared.”

That is why I'm reminding myself, this is a typical;
Monkey see, monkey do market. After event's bull.................


Please be reminded, always STAY AWAY from the market.
Judge and analyse all the available facts and informations, make the very own decisions. Not necessarily has to be a contrarian, but it's a must.

If I'm wrong, at least I am fully awared of what is going on.VIGILANT in analysing all the facts and informations obtained and after the decisions, monitoring the risks stringently.

Don't be the monkey, with the FCUK t-shirt.

The different between concern and DOUBTS

Last night, 20May 2010
The Dow dropped 376.36 points,3.6% to 10,068.01.

I asked what is the reason that driven such a panic?
checked the news as below;

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks around the world plunged and commodities slumped as reports cast doubts on the strength of the U.S. economic recovery and European leaders struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis.

I found the key word is: DOUBTS.
The market is doubtful, but all these news already been
well-spreaded since before now, about a month ago.
In fact, I had told myself to go short (DIRECTION, 21February 2010).

The similiar recent PAST panic;
2008 OCT 10(Bloomberg) - Stock tumbled, driving the MSCI World Index to its worst week in more than three decades, on concern the deepening credit crisis will spur the failure of more financial companies and send the flobal economy into recession. The MSCI World Index lost 3.4% to 925.18.

The key words are; on CONCERN the deepening credit crisis.

What impetus driven the last night panic;
Firstly, I think the market is over sold.
(1) The recent crisis is still fresh in everyone head, exaberting the panic, a completely knee jerk jittery upon any "unusual dropping".

(2) Any bad news last night? No, but DOUBTS.

Please be reminded, the world economy is on the recovery path.
Simultaneously, the interest rate is at the historical low. The world is flooded with cheap liduidity, searching for asset-classes that meet its' criteria to stay.

I would be trading against the stocks' dividend yield, high yield stocks would be on my shopping list for short term trading.

AGAIN, I THINK THE MARKET IS OVERSOLD.

Back to the advice from the world's richest man;

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

Patience .......is the key STILL !

hi ! James,
see the date and what I had put on the table. Look at what the market calling GMG now?

Investing is profoundly needed hell a lot of patience.
Without that, speculating in the property with decent leveraging, would be an idea instrument too. Goodthing about property is no daily price quote for viewing.

Some stocks, I have been holding for years. GMG is considered a mid-term play, but in between I had been traded it.

Again, I shall be available next Tuesday/Wednesday, confirm in due course.

thanks & regards


--- On Mon, 8/24/09, wrote:

From: [email protected]
Subject: GMG-Right issues
To: "Warren Oh"
Date: Monday, August 24, 2009, 7:04 PM
Hi ! Warren,
As mentioned this afternoon about participating GMG Global-Right issues. Before elaborating further, I hereby would like to declare my interest/position in this investment selection.

(1) You may have to double check all the facts I’m going
to put on the table.

(2) I’m not a rubber expert or know a lot about the rubber business.
It is purely from my “reading” as a small investor point of view and it meet most of my criteria to put some monies in it for mid-term.

(3) Unlike my previous speculation on East Asia Bank, which I was pretty much sure, if you still remember, a great rally after bonus issue 1 for 10 at HK$14 & dividends.

(4) Lastly, please forgive me if ever there is any error and correct me if you can.

My criteria for stock speculating in mid-term, briefly;
(1) Every season has a reason, I’m not buying anything just because it’s cheap or undervalue.

(2) Every selection has to be attached with an impetus for its price to be accelerated.

(3) Very important to warm-up prior loading-up any heavy
position.

MGM Global-Right Issues;
(1) 9 for 10 @ Right price SGD0.055.
(2) 1,818,544,446 @ $0.055 to raise SGD$100 million for Future Acquisition.

Myself;

(1) I had been trading on this stock prior till G.O in July 2008 by Sinochem International Corporation, a listed company on Shanghai Stock Exchange. Some players behind... made and lost money before.

The market mechanism;

(1) The theoretical ex-price was $0.092, based on the last cum-price of $0.125.

(2) First day trading after ex (Friday, 21 August 2009), mother price dropped till $0.105 and PAL was trading at the ranged-down from $0.05 till $0.035.

(3) On Friday, a few big blocks, about 50 million PAL was crossed at $0.03/35 level.

24 August 2009; (1) GMG-R, closed at $0.035, transacted 200,087,000 shares. Out of that, 142 million shares crossed mostly @ $0.03 cent with about 20million shares @$0.035.

My market reading on the above scenario;
(1) Market over reacted towards its LOW right issues price. This is normally happen whenever a low right issue/placement price, the market just sell down and off course, those will be happily accumulating at the other end. As a contrarian’s strategy, I always love to buy any non- speculative stock under ordinary market situation.

(2) Heavy arbitraging in between the mother & PAL.

(2) Other than that, I’m totally don’t understand why should a company value dropped so drastic? Again, I would like to emphasize; the right issues is for future acquisition, rather than for debt-settlement.

(3) Based on the two days observation, I would like to take the PAL at 0.03/035 is at the bottom benchmark.

Micro interpretation;

(1) Based on the closing price, PAL is trading at a discount against its mother price of 16.67%.

(3)See the attachment, according to the balance sheet as of 30th June 2009; the NTA is about $0.14 cent, at $0.09 (during the crisis price) entry- level is approximately 55% discounted against its NTA.

(4) How about the earning?
GMG Global earning had been at a stable tight range in year 2008, made a lot of profits in year 2007. How about the prospect? What I know is the rubber price is closely tagged upon the automobile industry. The only country automobile industry is doing extremely well is China. (I have been trading some China automobile stocks in HK market and know a little bit of their fabulous financial results recently)

(5) Don’t forget, the earning was from Europe and US before taken over by Sinochem International Corporation (Paid 51% stake at $0.26 per share).

(6) I don’t know exactly how the earning prospect is going to be, but I’ m quite certain; given the current global economy momentum, rubber price shouldn’t be doing so badly, which ought to be translating a set of good earning for GMG Global Ltd.

Risks;
I always ask about risks involved in any speculation; in this context, whether it could be possibly a/some rubbish injection to take out the $100 million from this company?

Please check the below web; http://www.sinochemintl.com/en/2media/1_detail.asp?id=381

Thus, I think and I would say, the possibly rubbish injection is quite low. Given, Sinochem International Corporation, the major shareholder’s entry cost is $0.26 plus this right issues subscription & under writing.

Other risks, I may not know such as;
(1) The fluctuation of rubber price,

(2) Geo-political/country risks in Cameron, South Africa & Indonesia? I think, being a Malaysian, whom is forced to invest abroad, inevitably to take certain degree of risks. Well, this is our career/life, dealt with it then.

(4) Worse case scenario? I think, at $0.09 cent backed with almost $0.055 cash per share. We are buying into this business at only $0.035/4, I don’t see any severe risks behind? If you know any, please tell me.

When to cash out/sell;
(1) As I said, every season has a reason; an impetus is expected to boost the share price with the $100 million future acquisition.

(2) Highly likely to participate in the robust China automobile industry,which is to deliver a good set of earning given its major shareholder background.

(3) Who the hack had been absorbing the crossed block of shares (PAL) and via open market? Are they buying for long-term or fun??

cheers !

《沒有寄出的信》與《Romance of the North Sea》

 



 

File#599 creatures that are oblivious to the past...

原載《東Touch》1065期 (27Oct2015)