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鱷兄對中聯石化(346)交易研究


因今日全力update文庫,所以拿回上星期和鱷兄的e-mail 出來貼貼,主要是說說前兩個星期那單印尼Deal,昨天公司更委任一印尼背景董事。

http://realblog.zkiz.com/greatsoup/7728


http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20090512/LTN20090512436_C.pdf


鱷兄:

UWANTS班人果然找上了你的blog,
事實上野村何曾入了股? 那個24樓分析員身份有點奇怪,有點無間度的feel,不知是那一路的高人。
http://www.uwants.com/viewthread.php?tid=7996971&extra=page%3D1&page=7

關於收購目標之一SPE
"Oilex (West Kampar) Limited (Oilex), a wholly owned subsidiary of Oilex Ltd, was assigned a 45% participating interest in the West Kampar PSC pursuant to a farmout agreement entered into with PT Sumatera Persada Energi (SPE) in May 2007. Oilex is continuing to pursue the early development of the Pendalian field and the ongoing work program to maximise the value of the West Kampar asset.

We have reported previously (9 and 30 January 2009) that following Oilex's termination of a second farmout arrangement entered into in August 2008 under which it was proposed that Oilex would acquire an additional 15% interest in the West Kampar PSC, SPE is required to reimburse the monies advanced by Oilex under the terms of that agreement and that Oilex holds security for that reimbursement. The amount due to be repaid is US$3.5 million approximately plus interest and costs. While SPE has acknowledged their obligation to repay monies advanced, no repayment has yet been made. Oilex is vigorously pursuing its rights to recover the monies advanced (plus interest and costs) under the relevant agreements including enforcing security which is held by Oilex.

To that end, Oilex has transferred a 22.5% participating interest in the PSC from SPE to Oilex pursuant to Oilex's rights under a Power of Attorney granted by SPE to Oilex in August 2008 at the time of entering into the second farmout agreement.The transfer is currently before BPMigas, the Indonesian Government regulator. Oilex will pursue the sale of this 22.5% interest to recover monies owed to Oilex.

To ensure that recovery of monies owed to Oilex is maximised, Oilex is also enforcing a parent company guarantee from SPE's parent company PT Asiabumi Petroleo and has commenced an arbitration proceeding against it in the International Chamber of Commerce Court of Arbitration in Singapore in accordance with the provisions of the guarantee.

Oilex is also awaiting BPMigas approval of its application to commence field development of the Pendallian field and other proposals in order to expedite commercial development"
http://www.oilex.com.au/files/09Mar31%20Quarterly%20Report%20Final1.pdf

SPE沒有US$3.5 million賠償給Oilex,結果給了22.5%"油田"給對方填數,這塊"油田"應該值幾多錢?

單單是印尼的"油田",Oilex股權已經比SPE多一倍有多,再加上在其他國家的多個"油田",Oilex的市值也只有區區£17.14m。SPE應該值幾多?

http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/2747942-168887/OEX-Quarterly_Report_to_Shareholders_31_March_2009.html


greatsoup:
你即是指,空氣的價值,但是以高價注入上市公司。
我在幻想,346印公仔紙買埋它,由許先生炒高股價賺一筆,
哈哈哈哈。

鱷兄:
除非許智明是賣方的幕後老闆,否則看不出有動機以高價買入,
不過搵估值師將估值估到天咁高,將差價當盈利入帳,並且營造入荀貨的錯覺,這個正是許智明的拿手好戲,而且不這樣做,許智明是沒有任何方法維持「盈利」水平。

如果我是賣家,一定要現金,不要牆紙,作為行內人,既然知道印尼"油田"點解不值錢,Oilex有眾多"油田"也不值錢,自然理解馬國"油田"其實也是不值錢的道理,可是許智明一定不願,現金用了就沒有,牆紙可以長印長有,寧可印多一倍牆紙,以他的邏輯,又會把發行價訂在1.25,這樣的話收購代價就會看來高得多。

以最近的市況,要炒起不是不能,但我猜測許先生的心思,必定會承機套現。表面上,許智明多次增持346,但我實在看不出他有其他收入來源,他的錢很可能就是賣346而得來,所以即使他不停地買,賣盤就是吸不盡。

消息指3113區已經開始動工,以前死要玩狼來了,如今反而忍口不說,不知他的打算。無論如何,鑽個井與會發達的距離非常遙遠,搞石油的,一邊勘探生產,另一邊繼續長期虧損三五七年是再正常不過的事。Oilex已經有產油了,還不是繼續的蝕本,如果花多兩年就可轉虧已經算他本事。
http://news.google.com.hk/news?client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=s&hl=en&q=sunpec&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wn

greatsoup:

都唔使,賣家都可以要公仔紙,但是價格就等於現金的幾倍,
同時無鎖定期,要分幾個賣家,不超過5%界線就不用披露增/減持情況。

我覺得那些之前賣股套現,其實只是在借高利貸,如如果股價低過1.25,就可以起鎖定貨源的作用,增持貨源其實在減少街貨,但是他如果之後真的炒不上1.25,又用甚麼錢還給人呢?

公司難以維持(真實)盈利水平,加上開油田、搞公關、打莊花費不少,幸好2007年市場大好景都讓他套現不少,加上引晒一大堆小股民落疊,股價尚算維持在高水平,總算是中價毫股。其他的不是變仙,就是低價毫股。

我想就是想保持神祕等人唔知道,但如果不成功,就可以不提,成功破神話。但成功的話,就可以成功散貨,功成身退。不過(公司)都是要虧錢,但是都沒所謂啦,下家吧。



總的來說,基本上這家以油田包裝的公司已經是要繼續玩下去,但是要多少時間才能成功呢,我就不知道了。

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