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招行投資者的未來:雪球、雪道、推動力 枯榮

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_54e40a1e01014x0v.html

股價不變

       
600036淨利潤攤薄每股收益稅後每股派息持有股份派息派息時股價派息買入股數
2011361.291.670.420849583740332.0411.63477
2012441.591.780.480611311454362.5411.64686
2013494.582.000.541178006362011.65484
2014553.932.240.6012328574571.8211.66429
2015620.402.510.6812971387875.5611.67575
2016694.852.810.76137289104168.611.68980
2017778.233.150.85146269124300.111.610716
2018871.623.530.95156984149414.911.612881
2019976.213.951.07169865181075.411.615610
20201093.364.421.19185475221441.311.619090
20211224.564.931.33204566272440.31419460
20221371.515.501.49224028332822.41917517
20231536.096.141.66241548400306.723.217255
      期末股票市值2151510
      牛市後市值5603908

情景2:

 

股價下跌       
600036淨利潤攤薄每股收益稅後每股派息持有股份派息派息時股價派息買入股數
2011361.291.670.420849583740332.0411.63477
2012441.591.780.480611311454362.5410.445207
2013494.582.000.5411832163901.229.406801
2014553.932.240.6012512275683.058.468950
2015620.402.510.6813407290828.147.6111934
2016694.852.810.76146006110782.66.8516173
2017778.233.150.85162179137820.86.1622356
2018871.623.530.95184536175637.75.5531656
2019976.213.951.07216192230459.84.9946153
20201093.364.421.19262345313217.34.4969696
20211224.564.931.33332040442210.81431586
20221371.515.501.493636275402151928432
20231536.096.141.66392059649742.923.228006
      期末股票市值1178998
      牛市後市值9095775

 

情景3:

股價上漲       
600036淨利潤攤薄每股收益稅後每股派息持有股份派息派息時股價派息買入股數
2011361.291.670.420849583740332.0411.63477
2012441.591.780.480611311454362.5412.764260
2013494.582.000.5411737463389.9114.044516
2014553.932.240.6012189173728.4515.444775
2015620.402.510.6812666685810.9316.985053
2016694.852.810.7613171899941.9118.685350
2017778.233.150.85137068116481.120.555668
2018871.623.530.95142736135853.722.616010
2019976.213.951.07148746158562.624.876377
20201093.364.421.19155123185203.527.356771
20211224.564.931.3316189421561030.097166
20221371.515.501.49169060251160.633.107589
20231536.096.141.66176649292752.536.418041
      期末股票市值4242950
      牛市後市值6431037

 

情景4:

股價\利潤不變      
600036淨利潤攤薄每股收益稅後每股派息持有股份派息派息時股價派息買入股數
2011361.291.670.420849583740332.0411.63477
2012441.591.780.480611311454362.5411.64686
2013441.591.790.4811780056803.5711.64897
2014441.591.790.4812269759164.8411.65100
2015441.591.790.4812779861624.2811.65312
2016441.591.790.4813311064185.9511.65533
2017441.591.790.4813864366854.111.65763
2018441.591.790.4814440769633.1711.66003
2019441.591.790.4815040972527.7611.66252
2020441.591.790.4815666275542.6811.66512
2021441.591.780.4816317478365.9914.005598
2022441.591.770.4816877280729.0919.004249
2023441.591.760.4817302182430.7823.203553
      期末股票市值1817277
      牛市後市值4014078

情景5:

 

股價\利潤變化      
600036淨利潤攤薄每股收益稅後每股派息持有股份派息派息時股價派息買入股數
2011361.291.670.420849583740332.0411.63477
2012441.591.780.480611311454362.5411.64686
201300.000.00117800060
201400.000.00117800050
2015132.4770.540.1411780017041.0744260
2016264.9541.070.2912206135314.7357063
2017397.4311.610.4312912456037.2869340
2018441.591.790.4813846366767.279538
2019441.591.790.4814800171366.52107137
2020441.591.790.4815513874807.8311.66449
2021441.591.780.4816158777603.6714.005543
2022441.591.770.4816713079943.819.004208
2023441.591.760.4817133881628.9323.203518
      期末股票市值1799600
      牛市後市值3975031

 

情景1:假設淨利潤12%的增速,30%的派息,股價維持不動,全額參加2012年配股,10年後出現一波小牛市,股價上漲一倍;

情景2:假設淨利潤12%的增速,30%的派息,股價每年持續下跌10%,全額參加2012年配股,10年後出現一波小牛市,股價累計上漲一倍;

情景3:假設淨利潤12%的增速,30%的派息,股價每年持續上漲10%,全額參加2012年配股,10年後出現一波小牛市,股價累計上漲三倍;

情景4:假設淨利潤保持不變,30%的派息,股價維持不動,全額參加2012年配股,10年後出現一波小牛市,股價上漲一倍;

情景5:假設遭遇經濟危機,2013年-2014年壞賬率從0.56%升至5%,為此撥備超過800億人民幣,導致連續兩年接近虧損,沒有派息,2015年開始逐步緩慢恢復盈利,並且在三年後由於利率市場化導致盈利增速為0。股價繼續大幅下跌,但10年後出現小牛市;

 

結果:有違背常識的是,股價持續下跌和盈利派息持續增長模式下,一旦股價恢復到合理水平(小牛市下PE為3.7倍),總收益率將達到670%,是全部情景中最高的。這比股價持續上漲,年均漲幅10%,累計上漲三倍的情景,高出一倍多!而最悲慘的情景5下面,即便不出現所謂的小牛市,10年股價沒有漲幅,10年累計收益率也有61%。

 

結論:最重要的是公司持續盈利,持續盈利增長,維持高水平派息,至於股價,其實沒有人們想像中那麼重要。而且甚至遇到這類公司,為了長期盈利最大化,你應該期望它持續長期下跌,而不是上漲。這就是招行投資者的未來:雪球、長長的雪道、堅持不懈的現金流推動力(派息、股神的保險、票據業浮存金持續投入)。

 

招行投資者最壞的幾個情景:

情景2:公司沒問題,股價未來10年持續大幅下跌61%,只有熊市,沒有牛市,結果是10年後每年拿到派息31萬人民幣,相當於3年多回收期初投資,期末總市值117.8萬。

情景5:公司出現很大問題,股價大幅下跌,期間最大跌幅60%多,10年期間股價不變,期末每年拿到派息7.48萬人民幣,總市值179.9萬。

 

簡單推算,沒有仔細勘查失誤。


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