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è³­ Turnaround stocks CUP

http://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2011/10/turnaround-stocks.html

踏入八至九月份,隻隻股票都跌到傻,有的甚至跌到跳樓價海嘯價,賤過地底泥,大量股票盈警或者見紅,這才是搏 Turnaround stocks (轉機股)的時候。


很多半桶水價值投資者以 P/E ratio 自我設限,非低P/E股不買。但轉機股最佳的投資時機往往是P/E高到離譜(可能是幾百甚至千倍)、甚至是沒有P/E(因為沒有盈利),因此他們注定與反 彈強勁的轉機股無緣,或者是股價殘到不堪而又最值得買時告訴你:今次我想等一下。

有些網友說我這裏鮮有談及基礎分析,日日講圖表、盤路和走勢,是否不看重基本面?老實說,我是極之看重基本面,只不過看法和一般坊間的所謂價值投資者(假值投資者)不同。

首先,我已經不止一次強調,我們做基礎分析應該當那股票是一盤生意去看待;而這正正是很多Graham/Buffett Fans 或者偽專家所忽略。

我們拿住舊錢打算做一盤生意、或者夾份做生意,一開波不是看P/E,而是看大環境是否適合經營生意、經濟是否很差、難唔難借錢、競 爭激唔激烈、business model 能否維持、自己做的產品周期有幾長、R&D 能否維持競爭力不斷推出受歡迎的新產品、銷售渠道問題、公司裏有沒有人才、班子管理能力等等。生存最重要是本夠唔夠厚,現金流能否維持運作和還債,行業低 潮是短暫周期性還是根本上產品已被永久淘汰。

循以上思路來看,假值投資者一開始就主張漠視宏觀經濟分析、漠視產品周期、漠視市場環境已經是超錯。不懂時機,現在站在周期中的哪 一點也不知道,一開始就埋手計historic 的 NAV、P/E、ROE、Net Cash Value、cashflow、dividend yield,儘管你計足十年的數字,也只會被數字愚弄。十年前可能那產品只是短暫性低潮,競爭者稀,所以十年來盈利有個小小 glitch 後又可以穩定地創新高,但十年後的今天是否一樣呢?產品可能被新的永久淘汰(像以前的寶麗來),十年前強勁的管理層可能已換哂班,目前的管理班子可能廢過 以前幾皮(像思捷一樣)。這是要特別留意的。

然後我們看企業倒閉的風險。投資中國,當然先看那公司的背景,大國企大央企倒閉的機會理所當然較微。然後看公司的前科,老千格的一 定危險,高危行業例如農業、林業等除非內幕人士,否則避之則吉。最好是前之已經歷過一個慘痛的 cycle 後,仍然生存過來,之後變得更強者更佳。最後看數字,還債的能力、債務的種類和結構、現金流能否維持等等。

死唔去唔代表一定好,還要看業績有否改善的空間,產品需求和價格在大環境改善後會否追上,公司的應變計劃能否令公司盈利回報正軌,宏觀經濟的轉變和行業的洗牌是否朝公司好的一方發展(有些之前有機會無法還債的高危公司,會否因為信貸環境轉鬆而避過一劫也要考慮)。

然後就看股市和股價,來判斷是否買進了。心中先有個譜,參照返以前熊市或者周期低潮時,那股票的估值狀況,是 trade 幾多倍 Price-to-sales ratio(PSR) 呢(可能沒有盈利,所以不能用P/E)?當時的 Profit Margin 是幾多呢(Profit Margin 高些,PSR就會高些)?

然後看市,股市熊到嘔,股價再便宜也要耐心等待,否則,以為0.6倍 PSR 很便宜,結果跌到0.3倍才停止,那會非常嘔血。或許假值投資者主長愈跌愈買,但我們作為賭徒,雖然基礎分析的功力極有機會比他們更紮實,但我們也要時常 提醒自己有機會看錯、計錯數,所以 average down 仍然是我極不鼓勵的行為,stop-loss 仍然是投資或者投機的金科玉律。等待市場確認我們的判斷為對,我們才進行操作。

當我們看到 Price-and-volume action 開始呈現轉勢,大盤氣氛有改善,那才因應自己的風險承受能力來下注;市場發展傾向有利自己的判斷(即是自己開始有錢賺),那才決定加注與否。大家亦要記 住,股價會遠比實際公司盈利先行,看到幅圖見到有大量資金在低位湧入就開始要醒水,等到公司出業績見到扭虧為盈或者大幅增長後,那已經是慢過慢金油,到了 水尾才加入那就只能成為大戶的點心了。


PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=29534

中國太平(966),TURNAROUND! fatlone's investment paradise

http://fatlone.wordpress.com/2013/08/17/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E5%A4%AA%E5%B9%B3%EF%BC%88966%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%8Cturnaround%EF%BC%81/

有Real Forum實在不愁無股炒,如果上次隻德林國際(1126)要credit雪球高手李沉疴,咁呢隻我會credit RF嘅筆兄。

好,客套話講完,講催化劑:

1)注資

來源:http://finance.sina.com.hk/news/-35000-5901590/1.html

some extracts:

中國太平將以每股15.39元發行8.63億股,作為支付有關收購代價。

中國太平於週一中午停牌前股價收報12.36元,有關新股發行價溢價高達24.5%。

有關新股發行量約佔發行代價股份擴大後的公司已發行股本33.6%。

注資後太平集團於中國太平持股量將由53.27%上升至68.96%;市場流通量,即其他股東股權則由46.73%下降至31.04%。

$15.39是大股東印公仔紙畀自己嘅代價。除非擺落去件嘢係垃圾,否則拉長少少去睇,$15.39以下既價位估值會有個譜。我純粹亂UP,我覺得公司有大動作,股價之後會有大TREND出現。但呢個「之後」是幾耐,我不知道,只知道以上最後交易完成期限是2014年底。我相信2014年若非甚麼金融海嘯再現,回頭望呢個價都可能好抵買都未定,但2014年底仲有差不多年半,世事難料啊⋯⋯

2)業績改善

來源:http://www.hkej.com/template/onlinenews/jsp/detail.jsp?title_id=156910

中國太平附屬首7月保費收入增60%

中國太平保險控股(00966)公布,旗下太平人壽、太平財險及太平養老於今年1月至7月期間的累計保費收入,分別為約349.81億元(人民幣‧下同)、約61.15億元及7.75億元,合共418.7億元。

至於與2012年同期的約212.73億元、約42.71億元及5.47億元,合共約260.92相比,按年分別增長64.43%、43.16%、41.58%及60.47%。

呢一點,我個人就覺得一半半,因為佢到呢一刻都未出盈喜,佢27日就出業績,我諗即係無盈喜。保費增速係強,營收大咗但個MARGIN可唔可以保持住?ANYWAY,起碼我覺得倒退既機會可以降低。業績我唔識睇,我只係睇A股嘅反彈可以令佢未來業績看好,我賭的偏向其PROSPECT。大家都係賭「A股好,內險股好」㗎啦?

3)基金經理劉國傑11蚊增持

詳見港交所披露。

first state 即是首域,劉國傑GOOGLE下都知佢是堅料。

其實以上嘅看法,RF嘅鉛筆兄已經一早講咗,我只係再GOOGLE返尐資料放上呢度「呃POST」。所以,credit 應該歸佢。

========================================

言而⋯⋯佢出現在此博上是其TA面其實都幾SEXY⋯⋯

DOWNSIDE真的有限,我唔覺得12蚊樓下買會輸到跳樓。但UPSIDE,自己睇圖感受下。

好明顯,依家仲係底部,隻股係底部嘅時候,實有好多DEFECTS,但是,當隻股已經個個都知佢好嘅時候,就一定好貴,當然,貴既貨可以貴落去⋯⋯不過一旦逆勢,就會可以好大鑊。

以我嘅小學雞式嘅圖表分析,966真係好有FEEL⋯⋯至於尐圓圈箭咀點講,你自己FEEL下吧⋯⋯

螢幕快照 2013-08-17 下午06.22.42

保險股實在太難分析,我都「無貨可賣」喇。港股中最熟保險股嘅博客首推「市場先生」,有問題可以問佢,又或者唔嫌棄嘅,可以留言分享你嘅見解,因為,可能會有另外嘅高手踩場交換心得都未定!

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題外話:

其實我一直想講下注碼問題,因為,其他有disclose自己個倉同埋回報嘅bloggers, 回報好似都唔太理想,我近來風格已經轉為炒賣型,注碼真係決定勝負。

老實講,見到尐BLOGGER渣住十幾二十隻股而全部都好平均咁分散,就知佢表現大約係點,除非個倉真係大到成5球以上,焗住要分散。例如,1126,我如果個倉有500萬,用十分一倉位50萬買落去我都唔敢。真係怕走唔到)

如果你覺得我呢尐炒炒炒到頭來都只會得個桔,甚至要輸都瞓街,我無所謂的,因為戶口個數字最公道,佢會話你知你啱定錯。

唔係個BLOGGER回報低佢寫嘅嘢就無價值,我從佢地身上都學到好多嘢,有時某尐個股佢地嘅分析我唔認同,但佢地提供到好好嘅資料畀我好快咁了解間公司,所以我對呢班無私嘅博客講聲多謝。因為,昔日嘅我用心鑽研再分享上黎嘅風格應該唔會再係呢度出現。我唔係否定深入鑽研個股呢個做法,而係我見到網路上有太多高手比我好,而又有咁多好股可以炒,我決定自私尐,暫時唔再contribute content,而是consume 呢尐content,不過,背後點樣解讀無數嘅content,都同樣值錢。

唔覺唔覺又吹咗咁多隻字~ 我其實仲有好多嘢可以吹㗎,留返下次先~

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Turnaround第二擊!今次係江西銅業股份(358) fatlone's investment paradise

http://fatlone.wordpress.com/2013/08/23/turnaround%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E6%93%8A%EF%BC%81%E4%BB%8A%E6%AC%A1%E4%BF%82%E6%B1%9F%E8%A5%BF%E9%8A%85%E6%A5%AD%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%BD%EF%BC%88358%EF%BC%89/

呢隻,再次係抄RF筆兄嘅飛,我其實好感激佢。

入正題,講下有乜catalysts

其實就係今日呢單嘢再次喚起我對江銅嘅興趣(之前嗰次係筆兄有貼過銅價嘅消息)

來源:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-22/copper-climbs-as-chinese-manufacturing-index-rises-lme-preview.html

Copper Climbs as Chinese Manufacturing Index Rises: LME Preview

By Jae Hur - Aug 22, 2013 12:43 PM GMT+0800

Copper led gains in industrial metals after a manufacturing index in China increased in August from an 11-month low, adding to signs the world’s second-biggest economy is stabilizing.

Market News:

Metals News:

Metals Prices:

-- Copper rose 1.1% to $7,320.50 a metric ton on the London
Metal Exchange. Relative strength index 61.
-- Aluminum gained 0.6% to $1,907.50 a ton. RSI 61.
-- Nickel climbed 0.7% to $14,520 a ton. RSI 54.
-- Lead added 0.7% to $2,228 a ton. RSI 65.
-- Tin was up 0.5% at $21,850 a ton. RSI 63.
-- Zinc advanced 0.2% to $1,971.75 a ton. RSI 64.

Other markets:         Last          % Change   % YTD
Bloomberg Dollar Index 1,028.99        +0.22       +4.31
Crude Oil               $103.72        -0.13      +12.96
Gold                  $1,361.53        -0.38      -18.73
MSCI World Index         366.22        -0.34       +7.79

Economic Events:
                                      Survey    Prior      Time
                                                       (London)
Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing    Aug      50.7     50.3      9:00
Euro-zone PMI Services         Aug      50.2     49.8      9:00
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims    Aug 17   330K     320K     13:30
U.S. Continuing Claims         Aug 10  2963K    2969K     13:30
U.S. House Price Index MoM     Jun      0.6%     0.7%     14:00

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而WSJ有篇詳盡嘅報道:

來源:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323980604579027171041071610.html

August 21, 2013, 8:20 p.m. ET

Copper Displays Strength

Higher Prices Follow Optimism About Demand and Economic Growth Overseas

The downtrodden copper market is showing signs of a turnaround amid a brightening economic outlook for the world’s two biggest consumers of the metal, China and Europe.

A flurry of relatively strong readings from the manufacturing and industrial sectors in both places has prompted many investors and analysts to revise global-consumption estimates for copper upward in recent weeks.

image

Bloomberg News

Prices of copper are up 9% since July 30. Above, copper cathode sheets in electrolytic tanks in Serbia.

The optimism about demand for copper, which is used in everything from smartphones to refrigerators to cars, has driven prices in the $100 billion futures market up 9% since July 30. Although prices have wavered in recent days amid nervousness about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, copper’s recent strength stands in contrast to its performance in the first half of the year, when prices sank 16%.

On Wednesday, copper futures for August delivery fell 0.8%, or 2.8 cents, to $3.3115 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices remain near two-month highs reached on Friday.

Hedge funds and other money managers as a group turned bullish on copper last week for the first time since February, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They had 7,041 more bets on copper prices rising than wagers on prices falling as of Aug. 13. In early April, investors were betting 38,951 contracts—a record high since at least 2006—in the opposite direction.

“Investors have turned more positive on growth—it’s as simple as that,” says Clive Burstow, portfolio manager of Baring Asset Management’s $11.3 million Global Mining Fund. Mr. Burstow recently has boosted his exposure to copper by buying shares of copper-mining companies.

A surprise expansion in manufacturing activity in July in China, the world’s biggest copper consumer and importer, gave the rally its jump-start. The market maintained momentum as the latest Chinese trade and industrial-production data beat expectations and as the euro zone last week reported its first quarterly gain in gross domestic product since 2011.

MI-BY023_MKTLED_G_20130821175704

China’s manufacturing report was a “huge turning point for copper,” says Jason Rotman, president of Lido Isle Advisors, a commodities investment-management firm in Newport Beach, Calif. Mr. Rotman said the firm began placing bets on higher copper prices shortly after the manufacturing data was released.

To be sure, some say an onslaught of copper production from new mines—a factor in the selloff in the first half of the year—could continue to cause headwinds for prices. Global mine output in the second quarter was up 8.4% from the same period in 2012, Citigroup analysts said in a note, the fifth straight quarter in which production beat year-earlier levels.

And there is potential for the next ream of Chinese economic data to disappoint. A preliminary reading on the country’s manufacturing activity in August is slated for release on Thursday.

Analysts with Credit Suisse said in a note on Tuesday that copper supply will likely exceed demand in the months ahead, citing the chance that this summer’s gains in demand from Chinese auto makers and home builders will prove fleeting.

“Reading too much into one month’s data can be misleading,” the analysts wrote.

Still, bullish investors point out that, not only are copper-demand forecasts being raised, but supplies already are tightening.

Copper stockpiles held in warehouses certified by the London Metal Exchange have declined 16% since late June, a sign of increased demand from manufacturers.

Rising investment in copper-heavy projects such as providing electricity to rural areas and railway expansion mean China’s refined copper consumption is set to rise 9.1% this year, analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate, up from 5% growth in 2012. They expect copper supply to exceed demand by just 53,300 metric tons this year, down from projections for a 124,400 ton surplus at the start of the year.

“Copper’s resilience suggests that the worst is behind us,” says Sameer Samana, a senior international strategist with Wells Fargo Advisors, which manages about $1.3 trillion in assets. “If China was really in as bad of a shape as people have been saying, you would have seen a much bigger pullback” in copper and other industrial metals.

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圖其實都不錯,不過我又講唔出點解不錯,總之就係覺得佢仲有得升,我一向都唔準㗎啦,睇下966就知(唉⋯⋯)

我覺得,純粹9UP咁講,短期1蚊幾毫嘅升幅機會是不少⋯⋯

我覺得呢排尐資源股已經郁咗一段短時間,如果呢個時候仲唔上車,我覺得之後去到「火棒傳遞區」先諗買唔買,第一輸嘅當然係價位,但呢點其實唔緊要,注碼先係最緊要,升到RSI過70樓上,你仲敢唔敢大注渣落去?你唔敢大注渣,已經限制咗你嘅POTENTIAL PROFIT。當然,你唔昅實個市,慢幾怕先留意到,咁只能再努力尐啦~

358-6M-DayChart_20130822

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最後,想share埋呢篇收錄在湯財文庫嘅轉載,觀點係我完全無諗過(其實我好多嘢都無諗過,無乜咁大不了,哈哈~)又學多樣嘢~

來源:http://realblog.zkiz.com/greatsoup38/58683

[神州股票資訊]F T:銅市轉牛跡象——廢銅緊缺

@ 2013-06-15 18:00:48

http://wallstreetcn.com/node/25741

FT:市場早就預期銅價將走弱,因為世界銅礦的產量上升。但看空銅價的投資者可能一直忽略了一個相當重要的銅礦:城市的廢銅。

舊空調、汽車和建築上的銅線和銅管,工業用銅切割剩下的邊料,構成了銅的重要來源,但經常被忽視。

根據國際銅研究集團的數據,廢銅佔了全球銅用量的約1/3。2009年產業活動萎縮導致銅價大跌的時候,廢銅突然從全球市場中消失,幫助了銅價從谷底反彈。

現在,交易員表示,類似的情況正在發生。可用的廢銅大幅下滑,已經吸引了對沖基金和貿易商的注意,這使得他們看多銅價走勢,雖然面對眾多不利於大宗商品的負面消息。

一名商品對沖基金經理表示:「廢銅可能是我們現在傾向於看好銅市的關鍵原因。」

就算基於不透明的金屬市場的標準,廢銅市場的數據也是出了名的粗略的。但在過去三個月,中國的廢銅進口已經比一年前同期下跌了14%。一些交易員和分析師估計,全球市場可用的廢銅今年可能會減少高達15-20%。

這與2009年的廢銅供應下滑幅度無法相比,但如果他們的估算是正確的,那麼這對銅市的影響仍是相當巨大的。

每年約有360萬噸在LME上交易的精銅,是由廢銅生產的。這意味著,廢銅減少10-20%,將減少全球市場銅供應36-72萬噸——這相當於管理了全球最大的銅礦之一。

另一方面,在幾個月前,業界的共識是,今年全球銅將出現30-50萬噸的供過於求。

中國一家大型銅冶煉廠的高管表示:「廢銅的短缺,意味著市場將更為平衡,而不是供應過剩。」

廢銅供應下滑的主要原因是,全球製造業活動過去幾個月的萎靡狀態,這意味著工廠產生的邊料減少了。同時,全球大部分地區增長停滯意味著,越來越少人廢棄舊的空調和汽車。

此外,銅價從今年2月超過8000美元/噸下滑至4月6800美元/噸,已經導致一些廢銅交易商選擇囤貨。

這些因素加在一起,導致了中國的銅冶煉廠集體囤積廢銅。

世界最大的上市廢銅商行Sims Metal Management亞洲主席Michael Lion表示,一些存在廣泛交易的高品位廢銅對倫銅價格的折讓,已經跌至了數年來的最低水平。

市場已經感受到廢銅短缺的影響,特別是中國市場,中國不斷擴張的銅冶煉產業,使中國佔了世界廢銅進口的60%。

巴克萊金屬分析師Gayle Berry表示,市場的壓力還會進一步放大,因為中國的冶煉廠要求一定比重的廢銅,才能避免它們處理低品位銅礦石時不會出現過熱的情況。

在過去六個星期裡,中國三家最大的銅冶煉廠——江西銅業、金川集團和云南銅業都因為廢銅短缺,合共關閉了每年40萬噸的產能。

廢銅市場的緊張,也剛好遇上市場的一些其它變化,使得交易員變得更為看好銅市。

第一,世界的幾家大型銅礦都出現了供應中斷的情況。第二,最近的銅價下跌已經刺激中國的貿易商和銅消費客戶囤積銅。最後,中國具有巨大影響力的國家儲備局最近幾週也在諮詢關於購買銅收儲的事情。

高盛經濟學家Layton表示:「廢銅市場的發展對銅價有支持作用。但單純的廢銅緊缺並不能驅動銅市向牛市的實質性扭轉。」


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