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John Templeton 的「準備」投資法 土著

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_7b56dde001014hxx.html
非常經典的訪談,亮點如下:
 
從1940年到現在,72年間經歷了14次大事件,每次都給智慧投資人創造了「貪婪」契機。
歷史不會簡單重複,但會驚人地相似,平均5年一次的貪婪機會,逮住它們的秘訣就是
「準備」。
 
1.準備「智慧」資本。
2.準備「現金」資本。
 
 
During the Value Investor'sConference on the past Saturday, Lauren Templeton, the great grandniece of Sir John Templeton, shared her insight on the success ofSir John Templeton. Lauren now runs her own investment firm, LaurenTempleton Capital Management. Thanks to Lauren for sharing thepresentation.

    Sir JohnTempleton went to Yale and paid his tuition by taking three jobsand playing at poker tables. He visited 40 countries after college.His mother thought he was dead while he was traveling. Eventuallyhe came back with a much better understanding of the world. Thislaid the foundation for him as a global investor. At the eve ofWorld War II, he borrowed $10,000 and bought all 140 stocks under$1 on the NYSE. He lost money on only four of them. He turned themoney into $40,000.

    These arethe 15 essential personal attributes that Sir John Templetonthought a successful investor needs:

1. Self-reliance
2. Reasonable risk taking
3. Sense of stewardship
4. A drive towards diversity
5. Bargain-hunting mentality
6. Broad social and political awareness
7. Flexibility
8. Devote large amounts of time to study
9. An ability to retreat from daily pressures
10. Develop an extensive friendship network
11. Patience
12. Thought control
13. Positive thinking
14. Simplicity
15. Great intuitive powers

Sir John Templeton was always very calm. He took a walk every dayafter lunch. He was the friend and mentor of Jim Rogers andPrem Watsa.

These are some of his quotes Lauren shared:

「A MAJOR CAUSE OF HIGHER PRICES is higher prices; but when thetrend is reversed, then lower prices lead to still lower prices. Tobuy when others are despondently selling and to sell when othersare avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays thegreatest ultimate rewards.」

「Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature onoptimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is thebest time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best timeto sell.」

「If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you mustdo things differently from the crowd.」

Successful value investor could take advantage of the crisisevents:(14次危機)

1. Attack on Pearl Harbor (1941)
2. Korean War (1950)
3. President Eisenhower's Heart Attack (1955)
4. Blue Monday (1962)
5. Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
6. President Kennedy Assassination (1963)
7. Black Monday 1987 Crash
8. United Airlines LBO Failure (1989)
9. Persian Gulf War (1990)
10. Tequila Crisis (1994)
11. Asian Financial Crisis (1997-98)
12. September 11
13. Financial Crisis 2008-2009
14. European Debt Crisis (2010 - ?)

How to take advantage of these events? Preparation,Preparation, Preparation

· Always store some funds in reserves. One basis for his thrift ishe sought out crises.
「現金」資本
· Maintain a wish list. He had already researched and prepared alist of companies he wanted to own at a bargain price.
「智慧」資本
· Maintain good-to-cancel limit orders in the market 20% below thecurrent price.
· An optimist, he held a fundamental belief in the continuedinnovation, ambitions and ingenuity of others.


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Templeton不敗投資法讀後感以及操作策略 法國梧桐樹NJ

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_544ef62e0101ebvi.html
同時,也剛剛讀了葛拉汗(格雷厄姆)的《聰明的投資者》,與本書相比,就好像無論怎麼光鮮,怎麼花團錦簇,巴菲特寫序,都無法掩蓋身體裡的霉味,遠遠落後於時代,非常固化的感覺。


按照書中所言,操作策略其實非常容易制定。股市高估了就賣,持有多些現金,越高越沽,甚至可以持有0股票(但是個人不建議,參照《聰明的投資者》,如果完全不持有股票,很容易見到繼續上升會心態失衡,另外一方面,持有一些股票會繼續保持對市場的敏感度,當然,持有多少股票是個性化的事情);股市低估了就買,甚至可以100%持股。這中間,其實最關鍵的一點,就是利用統計分析技術,評估股市當前水準是高還是低(Templeton爵士用過去幾十年的歷史平均PE以及重置成本來考量),而這種方法,最重耐心和堅持。因為短期來講,個人受市場情緒影響,很容易背離投資策略,做出衝動的買進賣出,比如最近幾天,雖然股市已經很便宜,但是如果心裡直覺,股市還會繼續下跌,很容易落袋為安,賣出股票了事,但是實際上,參照自己的投資策略,很可能是買貨的時機,或者持股不動。

上證A股歷史較淺,因此我一向用開恆生指數。恆生指數自從1966年至今,中位數在14倍-15倍左右,我取恆生指數15倍為合理值,就自然可以知道目前股市低估了大概20%多,這個時候是股票持有重貨的時候,而非賣出的時機,甚至,如果恆指繼續下跌,甚至應該100%股票!



Templeton不败投资法读后感以及操作策略




林SIR的強項,就是在歷史的背景下研究投資的大方向,而目前,我們處於什麼地位呢?
Templeton不败投资法读后感以及操作策略
許多人指,現在恆指中加入了許多中國企業,而內地企業受到經濟放緩、尤其是銀行受到壞賬影響,因此恆指的中位數應該與過往幾十年不同,正如Templeton爵士所言,「這次不一樣,是有關投資最危險的五個字」(P186),而也是這班人,在07年時一樣講,恆指加入了國企股,增長較快,PE24倍已經不算高了,結果歷史的慣性還是發揮了作用,因此,太陽底下無新鮮事!


操作策略非常簡單,容易執行,因此剩下的就是機械地、排除個人感情的堅決執行。跟著,「投資人決定了配置在股票上的資金百分比後,就面對挑選最佳股票的問題」(P87).

Templeton爵士對於集中投資和分散投資並無一個硬性規定,在P159中提出,法則7,「分散投資」中講到,「坦伯頓對於買進多少個股才算有效分散投資,並無明確的規則」;「坦伯頓成長基金早起分散投資的程度,遠不如後期規模大幅擴大後」;「在坦伯頓看來,不能因為某些股票具有不同的特質,或它們是某個指數的成分股,就出於分散投資的目的,在它們股價偏高時仍買進。」

在他侄女的書(國內譯本《鄧普頓教你逆向投資》)P38中也提到,「----,他也從不排斥集中投資(甚至就集中到很少的那麼幾隻股票),他不再為其他人理財之後,就經常用自己的錢進行集中投資」,而非常明確的信號是,Templeton爵士從03年-04年起大舉投資中國,而所有投資就集中在兩隻股票上:中國移動、中國人壽。

因此,總體來講,我暫時還是傾向於林奇的「五股理論」,對於小投資者來講,五隻就夠曬數了,再多你也不夠時間研究了。

而在個股選擇上,Templeton爵士注重「價值」高而股價偏低的股票。價值一詞,和葛拉漢(格雷厄姆)時的價值相差很大。例如,P86,「價值投資者喜歡股息率很高的股票,但坦伯頓清楚指出,股息率較低但成長前景較佳的股票,產生豐厚報酬的幾率較高」;
「因此,理論上任何資產皆可能是好的投資標的,關鍵在於價格與成長潛力之結合。」(P47)。
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