本帖最後由 晗晨 於 2014-10-13 21:42 編輯 來自HSCB的環保行業報告:是時候轉變重心 作者:Thomas Zhu 在占中事件持續沖擊以及海外市場回調等多重因素打壓,港股短短一個月間跌逾10%,多數個股泥沙俱下。環保股雖然也順勢調整,但是其抗跌性在弱市中顯露無疑。格隆匯持續看好環保股的邏輯依舊沒有任何改變。本期港股那點事接著分享來自HSCB關於環保股的研究報告。 以下是報告的摘要內容: Fresh momentum. Recent sitevisits and roadshows have highlighted two industry surprises and renewed ourconfidence in China’s environmental story. We were surprised to learn there ismore new water BOT tendering than expected – driven by previous over-statementof the treatment ratio, increasing sewage discharge from urbanization andgovernments pushing forward environmental protection, in our view. In addition,a massive waste-to-energy (WTE) project in Hangzhou highlights that landfillsare filling up fast, and we think the Street has missed large, high-return,low-risk projects in major cities where WTE construction has fallen far behindthe 12th FYP. 最近的調研和路演都強調了兩個市場驚喜從而加強了我們對中國環保的信心。由於之前誇張的水務處理比例,城市汙水排放的增加和政府大力強調環境保護,我們發現新的水務BOT項目超過了我們的預期。此外,一個杭州的大型垃圾發電項目說明垃圾填埋場的負擔繼續加重,我們認為投資者沒有從中國主要城市的高回報低風險的垃圾發電項目中收益,因為垃圾發電建設明顯落後於十二五規劃。 Time to shift focus. While we continue to likeoperators (e.g. Beijing Enterprises Water (BEW)), we think Sound Global (SGL)can outperform from its strong engineering, procurement and construction (EPC)business. EPC earnings often beat expectations during upcycles and we see thishappening for SGL with the unexpected amount of new projects, a pick-up in Chinadomestic peers’ growth, and accelerating upgrades and industrial/rural sewageconstruction from the upcoming Action Plan on Prevention and Control of WaterPollution. In addition, we believe SGL’s recent share price drop has factoredin near term negatives from the proposed deals in September and the marketshould start focusing on the long-term positives. 是時候轉變重心 盡管我們繼續推薦運營商(比方北控水務),我們認為桑德國際可以在他的EPC業務中表現強勁。EPC在升級改造中的收入總是超過我們的預期,由於桑德國際有很多新項目,我認為這種情況正在發生,並且受益於大陸同行的發展,加速升級和工業和生活汙水建設來自接下去的汙染控制計劃。此外,我相信桑德國際最近股價的下跌是受近期負面消息的影響,而市場應該開始關註長期發展。 We reiterate OW on BEW and China Everbright Int’l(CEI) on strong EPS growth (~25% CAGR from 2014-16e) and further EPSupgrade potential on the two industry surprises. We initiate on Dynagreen (DNG)with OW(V) on EPS recovery, potential to lower finance costs, visible growthtrajectory and its SOE background. We upgrade China Conch Venture (CCV) to N(V)after its recent share price weakness. 由於EPS的強勁增長(25%左右的複合年增長率),我們重申對中國光大國際和北控水務的買入評級。由於EPS的恢複,公司的增長潛力和更低的財務成本,可見的增長軌跡和國企背景,我們首次對綠色動力環保給予買入評級。我們在中國海螺創業股價持續走弱的情況下上升了對其的評級至中性。
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