ZKIZ Archives


利人利己之投資 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2011/12/blog-post.html

我最近看到一篇文章﹐我摘錄它的重點﹐和各位分享﹕

************************************

例如銀行業,銀行收集了公眾人士的存款,轉借給企業家開工廠,存款人取得定期存款利息,是贏家;銀行賺取存款和放貸之利息差額,是二贏家;企業家取得所需的資金,開設工廠,生產產品,從中賺取利潤,是三贏家,有此「三贏」,銀行業乃能持久經營。

例如屋業發展公司收集投資者的資金,買地建屋出售,買屋人有屋可住,是一贏家;發展商取得利潤,是二贏家,投資者分到紅利,是三贏家,故屋業能長存。

我們作為股票投資者,將資金交給公司、銀行、工業家,就是委託他們代我們去從事利人利己,大家都受惠,大家都是贏家的事業,作為上市公司的股東,我們其實都是在做事業,只是我們把經營權和管理權,交給董事部去執行,我們沒有直接參與經營和管理事業而已。

作為上市公司股東,我們的回酬,是來自公司的盈利,由於有盈利,股份才會增值,使股東的財富與日俱增,通過這種途徑賺錢,沒有『損人,故能長久投資。

投資能創造價值,故能長久,投機只是股份的轉讓,並非生產行為,不能創造價值,故不能持久。

創造價值,利人利己,人人都是贏家,故能長久經營,你才可以長期投資,長期投資才能賺錢。

利人 利己 投資 一隻 隻牛 牛的 日記
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新年(二)﹕任公子釣魚 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/01/blog-post_18.html

莊子「外物篇」有這樣的一則寓言:

【原文】
任公子為大鉤巨緇,五十犗以為餌餌,蹲乎會稽,投竿東海,旦旦而釣,期年不得魚。已而 大魚食之,牽巨鉤,錎沒而下,鶩揚而奮鬐,白波如山,海水震盪,聲侔鬼神,憚赫千里。任公得若魚,離而臘之,自制河以東 ,蒼梧已北,莫不厭若魚者。已而後世輇才諷說之徒,皆驚而相告也。夫揭竿累(,趣灌瀆,守鯢鮒, 其於得大魚難矣。飾小說以干縣令﹐其於大達亦遠矣,是以未嘗聞任氏之風俗,其不可與輕於世亦遠矣。


意思大約是﹕

很 久以前﹐有個年青人姓任﹐所以街坊叫他作任公子。任公子最厲害的手藝就是釣魚。真的很厲害﹗他的釣餌是五十頭牛﹐用巨鉤穿住﹐然後用大繩索綁住。那時候﹐ 最深的海是東海﹐最高的山是會稽。所以﹐任公子就在會稽山頂﹐把釣竿投向東海。一日復一日﹐每天都這樣釣魚,整整一年一條魚也沒釣到。有一天﹐終於有魚上 釣了。你看﹗非常大的魚﹐它拉著釣鉤急速沉沒海底﹐又迅急地揚起脊背騰身而起,,掀起如山的白浪,海水劇烈震盪,吼聲猶如鬼神,震驚千里之外。任公子釣得 這樣 一條大魚,將它剖開製成魚乾,從浙江以東,到蒼梧以北,沒有誰不飽飽地吃上這條魚的。那些淺薄之人和喜好品評議論之士,都大為吃驚奔走相告。他們舉著釣竿 絲繩,奔跑在山溝小渠旁,守候小魚上釣,至於想得到大魚那就很難很難了。


*******
這個寓言的啟發是如果想要在股市賺錢,當務之急﹐就是先學投資﹑培養正確投資原則。
要到什麼程度呢﹖就看你想得到什麼成就﹗舉著釣竿絲繩,奔跑在山溝小渠旁,守候小魚上釣。還是大鉤巨緇,五十犗以為餌餌﹖
何為投資原則﹖就是可以成功的方法﹐你願意用盡生命去耕耘。當你運用這個原則﹐已經到了胸有成竹﹑上下縱橫皆如意的境界。你就懂得運用巨鉤和地點﹐懂得選大魚而釣。

要有耐心﹐故投資宜長期,長期才能累積財富,並無捷徑可循。

藝高才能膽大﹐學習是永遠的﹐行動是即刻的。買進了對的企業﹐不要怕股價波動。
(大魚食之,牽巨鉤,錎沒而下,鶩揚而奮鬐,白波如山,海水震盪,聲侔鬼神,憚赫千里)
肯拚搏的蛤蟆﹐就有吃天鵝的希望。肯拚搏的烏鴉﹐就有變鳳凰的希望。

身為凡夫俗子,只要堅持一些原則,腳踏實地進行投資,不投機,不取巧,就可以取得可觀的投資成績。投資30年,到退休時就可以做到「財務自主」,做個有尊嚴的樂齡人。


****
2011年8-12月﹐在這段時間釣到大魚﹐如果能夠像任公子一樣﹐大魚食之,牽巨鉤,錎沒而下,鶩揚而奮鬐,白波如山,海水震盪,聲侔鬼神,憚赫千里。那麼﹐你今天有大魚吃鉤了。

****
祝福所有價值法的同門﹐一定要努力﹐這是對的正確投資原則。

新年 公子 釣魚 一隻 隻牛 牛的 投資 日記
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學投資﹐明白投資 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/02/blog-post_22.html

於順境中想要做什麼﹐都可以依照自己的心意﹐做起事來就容易得多。但是情況若相反﹐則困難重重。

一般人迷於順勢﹐為什麼會股票的價格會變動﹐自己都不知道﹐而且也不想探究[價值從何來]的道理﹐每天追著潮流﹐但是往往落在潮流之後﹐所謂差之毫釐﹑失之千里﹐要分毫不差的順勢而達到目標﹐更是難上加難。順勢者眾﹐成功者少。順勢者眾﹐是因為人性使然。

外在環境有阻礙時﹐只要自我有充份的毅力﹐即使再惡劣的環境都能突破。

學投資﹐明白投資﹐就是要打破環境的困難﹐追求[價值從何處來﹐價格往何處去]的道理。

不明白價值之前﹐看到牛/熊市﹐很容易陷於雜亂和妄想。

方向與立場一定要正確﹐這是開啟投資智慧門之匙。


投資 明白 一隻 隻牛 牛的 日記
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值得再三反覆細讀(一) 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/04/blog-post_24.html
再讀2011年巴郡致股東信, 個人認為以下這篇值得再三反覆細讀,
××××××××××××××××××××××
 The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer

Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk.

(1)
Investments that are denominated in a given currency include money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments. Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as 「safe.」 In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets. Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge.

Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as the holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal. This ugly result, moreover, will forever recur. Governments determine the ultimate value of money, and systemic forces will sometimes cause them to gravitate to policies that produce inflation. From time to time such policies spin out of control.

Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire. It takes no less than $7 today to buy what $1 did at that time. Consequently, a tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% interest annually from bond investments over that period to simply maintain its purchasing power. Its managers would have been kidding themselves if they thought of any portion of that interest as 「income.」

For tax-paying investors like you and me, the picture has been far worse. During the same 47-yearperiod, continuous rolling of U.S. Treasury bills produced 5.7% annually. That sounds satisfactory. But if an individual investor paid personal income taxes at a rate averaging 25%, this 5.7%(一隻牛的計算:5.7%x75%=4.275% ,after tax)return would have yielded nothing in the way of real income. This investor's visible income tax would have stripped him of 1.4 points of the stated yield, and the invisible inflation tax would have devoured the remaining 4.3 points. It's noteworthy that the implicit inflation 「tax」 was more than triple the explicit income tax that our investor probably thought of as his main burden. 「In God We Trust」 may be imprinted on our currency, but the hand that activates our government's printing press has been all too human.

High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments – and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label.

Under today's conditions, therefore, I do not like currency-based investments. Even so, Berkshire holds significant amounts of them, primarily of the short-term variety. At Berkshire the need for ample liquidity occupies center stage and will never be slighted, however inadequate rates may be. Accommodating this need, we primarily hold U.S. Treasury bills, the only investment that can be counted on for liquidity under the most chaotic of economic conditions. Our working level for liquidity is $20 billion; $10 billion is our absolute minimum.

Beyond the requirements that liquidity and regulators impose on us, we will purchase currency-related securities only if they offer the possibility of unusual gain – either because a particular credit is mispriced, as can occur in periodic junk-bond debacles, or because rates rise to a level that offers the possibility of realizing substantial capital gains on high-grade bonds when rates fall. Though we've exploited both opportunities in the past – and may do so again – we are now 180 degrees removed from such prospects. Today, a wry comment that Wall Streeter Shelby Cullom Davis made long ago seems apt: 「Bonds promoted as offering risk-free returns are now priced to deliver return-free risk.」


(2)
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.

This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce – it will remain lifeless forever – but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.

The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.

What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As 「bandwagon」 investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while.

Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the 「proof」 delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers – for a time – expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: 「What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.」

Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold's price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.

Let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world's most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?($9.6 trillion美金,可以買多少家新鴻基?,長江?,九龍倉?,總而言之,所有的龍頭藍籌企業?)

Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today's annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.

A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.(以上所買入的龍頭藍籌企業,可以派發多少的股息?)

Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it's likely many will still rush to gold. I'm
confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.


(3)
Our first two categories enjoy maximum popularity at peaks of fear: Terror over economic collapse drives individuals to currency-based assets, most particularly U.S. obligations, and fear of currency collapse fosters movement to sterile assets such as gold. We heard 「cash is king」 in late 2008, just when cash should have been deployed rather than held. Similarly, we heard 「cash is trash」 in the early 1980s just when fixed-dollar investments were at their most attractive level in memory. On those occasions, investors who required a supportive crowd paid dearly for that comfort.

My own preference – and you knew this was coming – is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. Ideally, these assets should have the ability in inflationary times to deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring a minimum of new capital investment. Farms, real estate, and many businesses such as Coca-Cola, IBM and our own See's Candy meet that double-barreled test. Certain other companies – think of our regulated utilities, for example – fail it because inflation places heavy capital requirements on them. To earn more, their owners must invest more. Even so, these investments will remain superior to nonproductive or currency-based assets.

Whether the currency a century from now is based on gold, seashells, shark teeth, or a piece of paper (as today), people will be willing to exchange a couple of minutes of their daily labor for a Coca-Cola or some See's peanut brittle. In the future the U.S. population will move more goods, consume more food, and require more living space than it does now. People will forever exchange what they produce for what others produce.

Our country's businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial 「cows」 will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of 「milk」 to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well). Berkshire's goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses. Our first choice will be to own them in their entirety – but we will also be owners by way of holding sizable amounts of marketable stocks. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we've examined. More important, it will be by far the safest.
值得 再三 反覆 細讀 一隻 隻牛 牛的 投資 日記
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值得再三反覆細讀(二) 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/04/blog-post_6061.html
1)
Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably
certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk.


例子:渣打(2888)


股票數目 股價的波動 每股盈利 景氣循環 價值

(百萬) 每股港元) (每股港元)
PE=10
2003 1,207 82-126 6.33 SARS 63
2004 1,210 116-149 9.78
98
2005 1,309 99-175 11.15
111
2006 1,349 182-231 12.66
127
2007 1,615 211-304 13.19
132
2008 1,638 88-287 14.54 金融風暴 145
2009 1,984 75-217 12.78
128
2010 2,192 176-244 14.82
148
2011 2,395 141-216 15.18 歐債風暴 152

以上,可以發覺:
(這是為了表達我的看法而舉的例子,可能某個事故,這家企業可以變樣)
(而且,PE=10,只是我的估計,不代表是對,也不代表所有企業都適合)

2)
Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably
certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk.

~a tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% interest annually from bond investments over that period to simply maintain its purchasing power.

 巴老是說他的通膨數據是4.3%,如果【市值+股息】的增幅,無法超過通膨,應該是危險的投資。但是,以極便宜的價格買入,造成股息回報超過10%,就可以扭轉乾坤,化危為安。

3)
Under today's conditions, therefore, I do not like currency-based investments. Even so, Berkshire holds significant amounts of them, primarily of the short-term variety. At Berkshire the need for ample liquidity occupies center stage and will never be slighted, however inadequate rates may be. Accommodating this need, we primarily hold U.S. Treasury bills, the only investment that can be counted on for liquidity under the most chaotic of economic conditions. Our working level for liquidity is $20 billion; $10 billion is our absolute minimum.
4)
High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments – and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label.
 5)

值得 再三 反覆 細讀 一隻 隻牛 牛的 投資 日記
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觀察管理人的能力和誠信 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.hk/2012/08/blog-post_9.html
 渣打被紐約州釘牌,我不知道影響有多大。

巴菲特買美國運通的過程,是可以借鏡。

未來,我想渣打的net interest income業務(屋子貸款,消費貸款)應該照常,信用卡(年費收入)照樣用吧。
至於money transaction的業務會更謹慎 ,不要違法。

很多被美國稱為邪惡國家,這裡的民生市場,還是可以找到很多善良的商業活動,他們都需要銀行的服務。這件事,新的銀行應該不會想在這裡插旗,舊的但市場小的很可能因此離開,對渣打應該是好事。

渣打會被罰款多少?暫時無數字, 這個時候最是變化多端。但是,沒有變化,何來機會?

這是個好機會,可以觀察管理人的能力和誠信。
渣打將控狀公開,讓所有股東過目,雖然這不能證明它沒有違法,如果比較同行,顯然強烈分明,值得讚賞。
觀察 管理人 管理 能力 誠信 一隻 隻牛 牛的 投資 日記
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第四版「聰明的投資者」的序言 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.hk/2012/12/blog-post.html
Warren E. Buffet:
To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework. This book ( The Intelligent Investor) precisely and clearly prescribes the proper framework. You must supply the emotional discipline.

If you follow the behavioral and business principles that Graham advocates--and if you pay special attention to the invaluable advice in Chapters 8 and 20--you will not get a poor result from your investments.

Whether you achieve outstanding results will depend on the effort and intellect you apply to your investments, as well as on the amplitudes of stock -market folly that prevail during your investing career.


**************
以上幾句是摘自巴菲特在Financial Analysts Journal, Nov/Dec 1976, 發表的文章,也是第四版「聰明的投資者」的序言。我個人體會是,

如果我們想要這世人最後是投資成功,秘訣是:
這書(The Intelligent Investor)所說的就是對的策略,尤其是第8和20篇。
 
我個人認為「 keep emotions from corroding that framework」
無非就是「信」。如果你不相信這個策略,稍微風吹草動,你就會起心動念,朝令夕改。

想要達到標青的成績,除了努力和聰明,還要看時勢。
三者之間,應先專注在努力,其餘的就相信一切都是好因緣。


時勢即系你這一生能有幾場金融風暴?
 When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.
第四 四版 聰明 投資者 投資 序言 一隻 隻牛 牛的 日記
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強國模式 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.hk/2012/12/blog-post_26.html
公元前362年,商鞅和秦國國君論富國強兵之策,對強國模式提出一下見解,

 強國模式:
  1. 甲兵財貨之強
  2. 明君吏治之強
  3. 山河廣袤之強
 但是以上模式,只強一時,不強長遠。

原因:
  1. 遇明君則強
  2. 遇常君則弱
  3. 遇昏君則亡
根本原因在於:名為法治,實為人治 。

衰弱並且淪亡的國家,其模式可分為:
  1. 守富饒土地而貧窮
  2. 擁強悍之民而兵弱
  3. 據山川形勝而淪喪
對於如此的管理人,惟有常君甚至昏君可以形容,是因為他們不懂得善用先天的優勢,綜合混一為強大國力。

強大國力:
  1. 人口眾多
  2. 農工興旺
  3. 府庫充盈
  4. 甲兵強盛
  5. 民勇公戰


*************************
商鞅在兩千年前的見解,我個人認為,不只是在現代適用,對分析企業的強弱也是一針見血。

甲兵財貨之強:
可以形容企業的員工訓練有素、工廠設備以及生產線上的機械是最新的、資產負債健康、盈利收入強勁。

明君吏治之強:
管理人智勇雙全,各階段的經理能幹。

 山河廣袤之強:
佔據市場的大部分、各種資源豐富。

但是以上種種優勢,不能保證企業長久生存。

根本原因在於人治 。
成功的機率全系在管理人,遇到愚蠢/自私的管理人,企業極可能衰弱並且淪亡。

何謂企業的法治?

制度必需完善無私,依制度不依人。
懲罰先從上層開始,獎賞則從底層開始。
董事會、管理人、股東,三權必需平衡。
對於人事要做到賢而知、知而用、用而任。
務求企業實力增長,激勵全體士氣。
強國 模式 一隻 隻牛 牛的 投資 日記
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=42040

2012年﹐致牛欄股東信 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.hk/2013/01/2012.html
牛太,牛女:

牛欄投資組合在2012年的表現如下,

股票組合的表現:
          帳面值     恆生指數   STI指數
2010   +8.9%         +5.3%       +10.1%
2011    -11.0%       -20.0%        -17.0%
2012   +25.1%      +22.9%      +15.1%


 收息組合的表現:
          帳面值     恆生指數   STI指數
2011      -0.4%       -20.0%        -17.0%
2012   +46.7%      +22.9%       +15.1%

收息組合主要是REIT、商業信託。

股票+收息組合的表現:
            帳面值     恆生指數   STI指數
2011      -1.0%       -20.0%        -17.0%
2012   +32.7%      +22.9%       +15.1%


回顧2011年的股東信,
總結起來﹐自從今年(2011年)八月開始﹐我的策略是﹕
  1. 瞭解自己的能力
  2. 瞭解能力以內的企業的基本數據
  3. 挑選具備持續競爭優勢的企業
  4. 以好價錢買入
  5. 組合分成定息和股票

所以2012年,我在投資資產的分配
            股票      收息
2011      43%       57%       
2012      23%      77%     

當然,以上的分配不是在一天內完成的,而是摸索了6-7個月,逐漸形成的。

我是不是已經瞭解自己?
不,絕對不瞭解自己能力的過程是永遠無止境

(1)
身是菩提樹,心為明鏡台。時時勤拂拭,勿使惹塵埃。

(2)
菩提本無樹,明鏡亦非台,本來無一物,何處惹塵埃。

就如以的兩首禪詩, 世人常讚歎第二首,說是大智慧,比第一首更高境界。就因為如此,我們是否就對第一首不肖一顧呢?有沒有想過,可能第一首更適合自己?

我個人覺得,不要太在意方法是否出名最為重要的是適合自己的能力。
一隻牛來說,就選牛的方法吧如果叫牛用龍的招數,恐怕......。如果只能漸悟,就不要強求頓悟。

Warren E. Buffett :
   To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insight, or inside information. What needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.
   If you follow the behavioral and business principles that Graham advocates, you will not get a poor result from your investments. Whether you achieve outstanding results will depend on the effort and intellect you apply to your investment, as well as on the amplitudes of stock-market folly that prevail during your investing career.

以上幾句是摘自巴菲特在Financial Analysts Journal, Nov/Dec 1976, 發表的文章,也是第四版「聰明的投資者」的序言。我個人體會是,

如果我們想要這世人最後是投資成功,秘訣是:
這書(The Intelligent Investor)所說的就是對的策略,尤其是第8和20篇。

我個人認為「 keep emotions from corroding that framework」
無非就是「信」。如果你不相信這個策略,稍微風吹草動,你就會起心動念,朝令夕改。

想要達到標青的成績,除了努力和聰明,還要看時勢。
三者之間,應先專注在努力,其餘的就相信一切都是好因緣。


時勢即系你這一生能有幾場金融風暴?
 When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.

我個人認為,多閱讀、多嘗試(實驗),在過程中瞭解自己,搜尋適合自己的方法。然後深入研究,再實驗。你可能發現,之前適合自己的方法,很可能經不起考驗;你也可能發現,Graham所述的方法,仍然經得起檢驗;但是,你也可能發現,Graham所述的方法,再加上巴菲特和費雪(Philip Fisher)所述,的確是可以再改善。從種種過程中,最大的收穫就是建立能力(competence )。

2012年,股票組合出現極大的變動,首先是套現恆隆地產,第二是減少股票的部位,增加收息的部位。原因在於當時的收息市場有利潤,而且確定。雖然當時,我覺得股票和收息的利潤可能一樣,但是收息卻有先天的優勢,例如透明和公開的派息政策,以及收息的來源主要是房地產收租,所以可預測和能確定。市價變動是市場的事,我只要計算收息的價值,等待價值和市價的出現足夠的差別。

套現恆隆地產的想法,是因為覺得建設銀行和工商銀行的市價很便宜,而恆隆地產的市價卻合理。 把合理的,換成很便宜,只要是龍頭換龍頭,我覺得還是可以的。(說穿了,就是錢不夠,才出此策)。
 

以上列表(16-7-12),再參考過去幾年的業績, 我個人認為是難得的便宜。龍頭股的特徵之一是對大勢敏感,通常可以在一年之間,有所反應,例如下圖所示:
 圖表用途工商銀行 (1398.HK)

 在6倍PE以下買入,仍然可能「暫時性虧損」,因為我們不可能知道市場瘋狂到何等程度。只要組合經營完善,貢獻合理的股息收入,我們是不必要理會賬面值的「暫時性虧損」。勝利的契機在於:

6倍PE的成本,我們極有可能面對「暫時性虧損」,更何況是10倍PE的成本?


2012年的投資策略仍然適合於2003年

 廣儲糧、高築牆、緩稱王
2012 牛欄 東信 一隻 隻牛 牛的 投資 日記
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=42552

被幾千隻牛蜱吸血狗女奇蹟康復

1 : GS(14)@2016-07-14 08:09:42

希臘雅典街頭一隻流浪狗,去年被人發現時滿身牛蜱,數量之多令人毛管戙。當時狗狗的身體虛弱得幾乎死去,情況非常危急。狗女「布洛瑟姆」(Blossom)遭人遺棄街頭後,身上慘遭數以千計牛蜱依附,大吸特吸牠的血,令「布洛瑟姆」極度瘦弱,幸好牠去年7月被義工救起,並交由獸醫治療。獸醫發現「布洛瑟姆」一雙耳朵因依附了太多牛蜱而下垂,牠的尾巴亦被鐵線纏着,部份組織壞死,因此不得不切除。但值得慶幸的是,獸醫為牠輸血和把牛蜱逐粒移除後,「布洛瑟姆」很快便奇蹟康復,並找到一個愛錫牠的主人,如今更不時與其他狗狗一起玩。英國《每日郵報》





來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20160714/19694486
幾千 隻牛 牛蜱 蜱吸 吸血 血狗 狗女 女奇 奇蹟 康復
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【飲食籽】本地牛皇日劏八隻牛 做純牛肉丸撻到起膠

1 : GS(14)@2016-12-31 10:18:33

莫景雄是本地牛界傳奇,日劏八隻牛。



【飲食籽:追源尋味】喜歡《食神》這套電影,因而對牛丸有一份情意結。莫文蔚用她驚人的腕力,每件牛肉平均要用鐵棒不停地打26,800多次,才能做出「一噴不可收拾」的瀨尿牛丸。要食到彈牙、爆汁的牛丸,似乎要用全身力氣才成。時代改變,牛丸現已轉用半人手半機器打,更為了慳成本,牛丸混入豬肉。要找百分百以純牛肉製造的肉丸,潮州汕頭和香港都有。


香港篇

在香港,要找到百分百純牛肉製的牛丸更難。由於鮮牛供應少,問過不少行家,以牛肉肉檔做的牛丸最穩陣。莫景雄是本地牛界傳奇,無人不識,不但每日劏八隻牛,是全港劏牛最多的人,又供貨往大小火鍋店,而且做到開餐廳,旗下有兩間火鍋店及兩間牛腩店,靠賣牛賺到盤滿缽滿。他今個月在炮台山開新店「牛芳百世」,除賣牛腩外,還主打自家製百分百純牛肉丸。



湯底以牛骨、豬骨、雞骨熬製而成,未入廚房已聞到濃濃牛味。

手打鮮牛肉丸,配上以牛骨熬製的湯底,味道雖然無想像中彈牙,但牛肉味濃。淨牛丸$45

每日用四個部位——腰嘴(上圖)、扒底、胸板、水?打丸。


混合四個部位打丸 人手撻到起膠 

「打牛丸一定要用新鮮牛肉,牛丸才能食到牛肉真鮮味,新鮮牛肉是有光澤,坊間有好多用瘀黑的肉打,都不知道是甚麼肉,人家叫得我做牛皇,點會給人劣質貨!」他牙擦地說。雖然他的牛丸並非全手打,用的是半機器半人手,卻有別於坊間只用後腿肉打牛丸。「打牛丸要用四個部位,分別是腰窩嘴、扒底、胸板、水?,這四個部位每日加埋有幾百斤肉,可以獨立或者混合用來打牛丸,夠韌又具肉汁。」他如數家珍地說。做法和坊間分別不大,牛肉切件絞碎再攪勻成肉漿,其間加入冰塊及鹽糖等調味料,先雪藏一晚待至硬身,再用人手撻,以手唧成肉丸。值得一讚是配上以牛骨熬製的湯底一起吃,味道雖然無想像中彈牙,但牛肉味濃。有說全手打總較機器打好,但雄哥說在香港已沒有全手打牛丸。「現在時代進步了,和以前不同,人工貴,又無人願意入行。其實傳統上用兩支棍打,和機絞碎差不多,但一定要再用人手撻,撻到彈起,這樣膠性才有分別。」



牛芳百世炮台山蜆殼街8號地下



記者:何嘉茵攝影:梁志永、周芝瑩編輯:謝慧珊美術:利英豪




來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/su ... t/20161231/19881800
飲食 本地 牛皇 皇日 八隻 隻牛 做純 牛肉 丸撻 撻到 到起 起膠
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262隻牛證「打靶」 恒指騰訊為主

1 : GS(14)@2017-12-10 20:34:51

【明報專訊】恒指連續跌穿多個整數位,拖累多隻牛證被「打靶」,據聯交所資料,昨日共有262隻牛證被強制收回,當中包括不少恒指及騰訊(0700)牛證。

34隻甫上市即被收回

262隻牛證被強制收回,相信是近期最高紀錄。事實上,今年10月底港股午後一度大跌近600點當天,全日亦只有74隻牛證被殺。近日投資者轉趨進取,輪證市場成交大增,造就這次牛證大屠殺。昨日更有34隻牛證甫上市便被收回,不少是輪商早前發行、行使價在29,000點以上的恒指牛證,或行使價400元以上的騰訊牛證。

瑞銀亞洲股票衍生產品銷售部董事周國威表示,近日不少投資者已先沽出貼價的騰訊牛證,轉倉至收回價360元以下的牛證。截至周二晚騰訊牛證的街貨量相當於不足1000萬股正股,估計往後對正股的影響力會減弱。相反,恒指牛證的投資者仍然進取,資金湧入貼價的牛證。

恒指牛證28000至28049點重貨區

據摩根大通數據,截至昨晚,恒指牛證最新的血肉長城為收回價28,000點至28,049點,共有2.54億份街貨,相當於507張期指。但新增最多的是收回價28,200點至28,249點的牛證,新增期指張數達95張。


來源: http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/dai ... 0838&issue=20171207
262 隻牛 牛證 打靶 騰訊 為主
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495隻牛證打靶 歷來最慘烈

1 : GS(14)@2018-02-12 07:12:49

【明報專訊】恒指昨急瀉1649點,成為歷來第二大跌市,同日大量牛證遭打靶。據港交所數據,昨日共有495隻牛證遭打靶,創歷史新高,為2015年7月8日後,再次有逾400隻牛熊證被強制收回。495隻牛證當中,176隻為恒指牛,96隻則為騰訊(0700)牛,被屠的港交所(0388)牛、平保(2318)牛和匯控(0005)牛亦分別有44、27和18隻。

券商:不少投資者「撈底」購證

瑞萬通博執行董事兼香港上市產品銷售部主管翁世權表示,見投資者昨日開倉做淡指數,同時亦有不少「撈底」購入個股認購證。

昨日窩輪總成交約200億元,牛熊證總成交則為102億元,兩者佔大市成交只有約一成,有見輪證市場成交減少。

收市後牛熊街貨比例為64比36,30,100點至30,199點為牛證最多新增和重貨區間,相對期指對冲張數206張,較上日增加96張,街貨量1.24億份,較上日增加6653萬份。32,600至32,699點區間的熊證為新增最多的區間,32,700至32,799點則為熊證重貨區間,重貨區間中,相對期指對冲張數為161張,較上日減少6張,街貨量為0.83億份,較上日減少81萬份。

另外,港交所昨公布由明天(8日)起調整按金比率,恒指「大期」、「細期」、國指「大期」和「細期」等最低按金率均有所提升。


來源: http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/dai ... 5469&issue=20180207
495 隻牛 牛證 打靶 歷來 慘烈
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好友損失慘重 263隻牛證遭打靶

1 : GS(14)@2018-02-13 03:03:12

■昨多達263隻牛證遭打靶,不少投資者損手。


【本報訊】港股大屠牛,多達263隻牛證遭打靶!美債息上周五抽高,拖低美股表現,港股ADR(港股美國預託證券)亦因而幾近全線走低。受外圍影響,恒指昨日即低開超過800點,最低更見31712點,令88隻恒指牛證見光死,大跌市下全日更有263隻牛證遭強制收回。經此一役,恒指處31900點水平的牛證重倉區已遭攻陷,目前已下移至介乎31500點至31599點水平,涉及3.98億牛證街貨,相對期指對沖張數約770張。

輪證發行商輸3,000萬

港股早段大瀉,多隻股份急插,據港交所資料顯示,除了一隻瑞聲(2018)及一隻舜宇光學(2382)熊證,其餘被強制收回的全數為牛證,反映好友損失或慘重。而跌市下昨日輪證交投亦有所減少,只得約373億元,為上月12日以來最低,佔全日主板成交額僅22%。中銀國際股票衍生產品聯席董事葉匯豪表示,雖然大市低開,投資者普遍仍以追入牛證為主,過夜牛證亦多。輪場方面,資金昨積極撈騰訊(700)及平保(2318)認購證博反彈。葉匯豪補充,恒指昨大幅低開下,輪證發行商亦損失慘重。他解釋,由於市場早前有一批收回價與行使價僅100點距離的牛證,而大市裂口式低開後不單跌穿牛證收回價,亦插穿行使價,令輪證發行商「(高位)沽唔切期指」,並只能在31700點水平沽出,估計輪證發行商因此輸逾3,000萬元,形容情況罕見。瑞通執行董事翁世權亦指,昨有88隻恒指牛證被收回,而騰訊亦有68隻牛證被打靶,「投資者喺恒指牛輸咗1.2億,但喺恒指熊贏咗1.7億!」



來源: https://hk.finance.appledaily.co ... e/20180206/20296895
好友 損失 慘重 263 隻牛 牛證 證遭 打靶
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