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不要姓賴! 巴黎

http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/tonylaw-vaueinvesting/article?mid=5391

巴黎:

以下是Walter Schloss總結自已半生投資生涯的16規條,有人曾問他,為何不注重宏觀經濟,只著重價值投資?價值投資的股票價格不是也會在經濟轉壞時下跌嗎?

他回答:"不是這樣的,以價值投資買的股票,好環境是會升的,在經濟低迷時慢一點吧!"

一些朋友,年前叫別人不要踫美股,說美股無運行,到現在仍執迷不悟。也有一些朋友,眼見巴黎的AIG大升之際,突然非常客觀清醒、並隨風擺柳地轉口風。

我在站內,只得一篇宏觀經濟論,我當時說,錢多貨少,貨價必升,我沒有高深理論,我叫大家,不要以為那些錢是蠢,那些錢只會買價值吸引的貨,而不會蠢貨的,我叫大家不要見貨就買。

你們知不知道為何巴黎不喜多談宏觀經濟呢?

因為如果你不談宏觀經濟,你就不能夠再為自已昨天的錯誤找籍口開脫!

你不會再說,因為外圍影響、因為中央打擊乜乜、因為中央加息、因為12.5改變政策、因為對農民、對汽車、對乜對物改變了.......樣樣都不是你的錯,是其它人引致你賺不到錢!引致那支股票不升價!

不談宏觀經濟後,你就會認真考慮以下的問題:

我幹嗎從來未有好好研究、分析這間企業在變化經濟環境的考驗能力?
我為何從未有認真了解這間企業究竟價值有多少?!
我為何從不作最壞的準備?!
我的分析、思考架構方法存在著什麼問題!?

股票買錯並不是投資道路上最致命,在分析前就找定代罪人才是。而唯有你不以宏觀經濟分析買股票,你才會勇敢對自已所做的任何決定負責!

在只有20%的人賺錢的股票市場,做眾人所做的事從來不會令你有好成績!


Walter Schloss 16 rules

1. Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value

2. Try to establish the value of the company. Remember that a share of stock represents a part of a business and is not just a piece of paper.

3. Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of the enterprise. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity. (Capital and surplus for the common stock).

4. Have patience. Stocks don’t go up immediately.

5. Don’t buy on tips or for a quick move. Let the professionals do that, if they can. Don’t sell on bad news.

6. Don’t be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in your judgment. You can’t be 100% certain but try to look for the weaknesses in your thinking. Buy on a scale down and sell on a scale up.

7. Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision.

8. Have a philosophy of investment and try to follow it. The above is a way that I’ve found successful.

9. Don’t be in too much of a hurry to see. If the stock reaches a price that you think is a fair one, then you can sell but often because a stock goes up say 50%, people say sell it and button up your profit. Before selling try to reevaluate the company again and see where the stock sells in relation to its book value. Be aware of the level of the stock market. Are yields low and P-E rations high. If the stock market historically high. Are people very optimistic etc?

10. When buying a stock, I find it heldful to buy near the low of the past few years. A stock may go as high as 125 and then decline to 60 and you think it attractive. 3 yeas before the stock sold at 20 which shows that there is some vulnerability in it.

11. Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings. Earning can change dramatically in a short time. Usually assets change slowly. One has to know much more about a company if one buys earnings.

12. Listen to suggestions from people you respect. This doesn’t mean you have to accept them. Remember it’s your money and generally it is harder to keep money than to make it. Once you lose a lot of money, it is hard to make it back.

13. Try not to let your emotions affect your judgment. Fear and greed are probably the worst emotions to have inconnection with purchase and sale of stocks.

14. Remember the work compounding. For example, if you can make 12% a year and reinvest the money back, you will double your money in 6 yrs, taxes excluded. Remember the rule of 72. Your rate of return into 72 will tell you the number of years to double your money.

15. Prefer stock over bonds. Bonds will limit your gains and inflation will reduce your purchasing power.

16. Be careful of leverage. It can go against you.

不要 姓賴 巴黎
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青笑怒罵:上市公司無便便改姓賴

1 : GS(14)@2011-10-29 14:31:44

http://m.sharpdaily.hk/detail.ph ... 5307&category=daily
雖然電視廣告都話:「便便係好基本嘅,全面發展先至係叻!」但係如果連基本都做不到或做得不足,那就真的要睇睇究竟係人嘅問題定係奶粉有問題,抑或係有其他問題。
大人無便便,仲話可以食幾粒西梅通一通,上市公司無便便——引小股東埋身、甚至伸完手後,唔肯長進擺番低幾両,無論股價抑或股息都一毛不拔,咁就真係完全唔值得原諒啦﹗
盈利升派息跌,I.T (999)已經有辦你睇;盈利升、派息升、可惜存貨周轉日也上升的利信達(738),同樣係死罪,股價雙雙被洗倉,相信就算連同今天期指結算挾多一鋪,以回補空倉或執死雞為己任的反彈,相信都難以彌補缺失了的市值。
早前匹克(1968)中期業績也是盈利升、毛利升,但派息跌、存貨周轉日數升、淨利潤率跌,股價兩個月跌近六成,才跟博反彈敢死隊升些少,有人更賴說要預留資金在內地擴張。內需變內傷,概念從來都不是免死金牌。

派息升但比率跌屬死罪
然而,有時有便便又如何?都要觀察其形態是否健康,假如係屙粒粒抑或係屙爛屎。
據報載,有一位天天要長途跋涉、由深圳過境來香港上課的跨境學童,就係因為天天都要搭長途巴士往返中港,途中難免會人有三急,卻因學生巴士無法中途停車讓其解決,因日積月累、忍得多,最終變成便秘問題。
根據中大透過訪問調查的發現,有12%小學生有便秘問題,可是當忍便便變成習慣後,最終將演變成失禁,結果淪為「屎王之王」,生人勿近。
在本港上市公司當中,出現便秘問題的比例,肯定高於12%。所謂全面發展,營業額、盈利、毛利率、淨利潤率、股東回報、派息、股價表現,缺一不可。

次級債不計入核心資本金
若再深入分析,派息升同時派息比率跌,一樣可以係死罪。當然,賺錢的企業是否就是好企業,就是另一個更值得討論的話題,但可以肯定的是,好的企業肯定不止是一台賺錢機器。
正如散戶至愛的內銀股,相信一隻二隻會很快告訴你們,要為提升一級資金充足比率而減派息,羊毛出自羊牯身上,也許你會問:內地14家商業銀行,今年不是已經發行2076億元次級債嗎?還有未來兩年的缺口2305億元,為什麼又要打劫小股東?或許你有所不知,次級債是不計入核心資本金的,請準備繼續被宰割吧!小股東們!阿們!

胡孟青
獨立股評人
青笑 怒罵 上市 公司 便便 改姓 姓賴
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