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投資與賭博（已更新） CUP


From


http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/Chui-Cup/article?mid=13905


 

當人們最認為買股票是賭博行為的時候（通常是股票跌到阿媽都唔認得的時候），它就最具投資價值。當人們認為股票是最可靠的時候（通常是股票升了好一段日子的時候），買股票反而像賭博行為。

 

而賭博和股票投資具有一些難以區分的特質，兩者的區分主要是技術和心態的分別。

 

昨日瀏覽市場先生為谷主的 newsgroup《價值投資谷》，發現不少發言的版友已不再相信價值投資。

 

「價值投資」的價值（係咪最能賺錢的投資法）經常有很多爭議，主要是因為大家對「價值投資」的定義沒有共識。

 

如上所講，投資與否並不是由買什麼所決定。魯莽地買大藍籌長持也可以是賭徒般的決定。

 

對於我自己來講，即使沽空都可能是價值投資（只不過將低買高賣的過程掉轉來做。但要記住，做沽空最不利的地方是，贏的幅度是有限〔max. 100%〕，但輸的幅度卻是無限）。

 

買賣期權都不是洪水猛獸，有人的確是可以 獲利，但要考慮的是 A. 能否長期這樣操作都同樣能獲利；B. 是否明白操作的目的；C. 這是否達到目的最好的工具。我個人相信很多人對自己的期權操作並不是太理解而產生了危險。（大家千萬不要問我關於期權的問題，因為我的確不太擅長這方面的 操作）

即使是市場先生的所謂投機組合，其買入理念都是抱著價值投資的原則來進行。（大家是否認同他對個股的看法是否正確是另一回事）

 

但有一個觀念肯定是錯，那就是認為在現今資訊發達的香港市場，幾乎無可能找到市場錯價的對象，因而無法進行價值投資。

 

一、市場錯價時常存在，只不過是投資者能否找到而已。資訊是很發達，但錯誤或誤導性的資訊同樣發達。

二、如果找不到，等待也是價值投資的技巧之一。例如今年年初，價值投資者會憂愁找不到市場錯價的投資機會嗎？恐怕最令人憂慮的只是現金不夠，不能買入更多。

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Peter Lynch "One Up On Wall Street"

 

Frankly, there is no way to separate investing from gambling into those neat categories that are meant to reassure us. There's simply no Chinese wall, bundling board, or any other absolute division between safe and rash places to store money. It was the late 1920s that common stocks finally reached the status of "prudent investments," whereas previously they were dismissed as barroom wagers -- and this was precisely the moment at which the overvalued market made buying stocks more wager than investment.

 

Historically, stocks are embraced as investments or dismissed as gambles in routine and circular fashion, and usually at the wrong times. Stocks are most likely to be accepted as prudent at the moment they're not.

 

I'm always amused when people describe their investment as "conservative speculations" or else claim that they are "prudently speculating". Usually that means they hope they're investing but they're worried that they're gambling.

 

Once the unsettling fact of the risk in money is accepted, we can begin to separate gambling from investing not by the type of activity (buying bonds, buying stocks, betting on the horses, etc.) but by the skill, dedication, and enterprise of the participant. To a veteran handicapper with the discipline to stick to a system, betting on the horses offers a relatively secure long-term return, which to him has been as reliable as owning a mutual fund, or shares in General Electric. Meanwhile, to the rash and impetuous stockpicker who chases hot tips and rushes in and out of equities, and "investment" in stocks is no more reliable than throwing away paychecks on the horses with the prettiest mane, or the jockey with the purple silks.
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