創益太陽能 - 2468 Kyle
http://blog.yahoo.com/_PDW7RFPPPKJ6IWUA42B5OWHPCM/articles/613656/indexYamago 話有人講2468 係一隻物超所值既股票..........既然佢剛出左中期業績報告.........咁就同大家一齊睇下.......下面係中期報告既原文:
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2012/0329/LTN201203293280.PDF我唔會每一條LINE 咁去講...不過我會將一D 重點抽出黎俾大家睇下.........點樣去睇一份報表.......
1) 第五頁既 Chairman statement, 其實係簡單咁反映左管理層對公司前景既睇法........其中有兩句非常重要........
"The Company had to reduce prices of its products accordingly to cope with the imbalance status of this below-cost price in the market." 即係話公司係要以比成本價仲要低既價錢去賣出手上既貨品, 清貨..........連毛利都已經係負數.......扣埋其他admin, operation 等費用就要蝕得仲多.......
"It is expected that the negative effects resulting from the current trend will at least continue until the end of 2012. In response to the depression in the global" 主席已經講定2012 年年尾之前都唔會好......即係話之後既業績只會比現時更衰.........
就咁已經睇得出, 公司業務前景係短期內一定唔會好......
2) 第21頁既 Income statement, 最礙眼就係果 RMB644m 既 Other loss, 參考番note 6 既breakdown, 其實最主要係來自RMB611m 既固定資產impairment.......再跳去note 12 既 property, plant and equipment, 會睇得出其實係因為auditor 覺得佢地公司既盈利前景有問題, 所以固定資產既價值大幅減低.......要知道impairment 係因為長線前景出現問題先要考慮..........反映佢地既睇法同管理層既負面睇法一致........
3) 同樣係Income statement 既Revenue, 由上期既RMB901m 跌到去今期既RMB610, 反映左連市場既market share 佢地都保唔到..........至於GP margin 由上期44% (395,263/900,660) 跌到去今期既 21% (127,180/610,187), 就貼迎上面1) 同 2) 既原因
4) 第22頁既Statement of financial position, 係所有資產入面, 除左現金之外, 其他大部份都係未自佢既property, plant and equipment 同埋 deposits for property for property, plant and equipemnt......你都見到, 佢一年俾auditor 一下已經剷左六億......其實呢D asset 根本就冇咩resale value.....如果係流通既股票或者係物業都話賣出可以值錢.....呢D 機器既野.........如果間公司唔運作..........隨時只係值爛銅爛鐵既價........所以唔好以為佢真係值咁多資產.......
5) 同樣Statement of financial position, Cash 有 RMB983m, short term borrowing 有RMB33m, long term borrowing 有RMB60m.....淨現金有RMB890m 左右........NOTE 20 既Share capital 指出佢年底有約1,585 m 既發行股份.........即係話每股約值RMB0.56 既現金 (890/1,585).....以匯率1.2 計, 有約HK$0.67........同現價HK$0.77 比其實都幾高比重......呢個係佢既最大賣點.......可惜公司預期要年年蝕錢.....所以一定要打個折........
6) 大家會奇怪, 公司蝕咁多......咁點解會有咁多現金??? 請大家再跳去第26 頁既statement of cashflow (condensed), 大家睇番2010 年入面既RMB1,363,896 果粒數.....會發現公司其實係因為係2010 IPO 所以收左成RMB13億.........一年之後其實已經燒左4億.............假設情況不變.........可能過左2年又要再伸手問股東度水.........
我抽左上面既重點出黎........再比較下Yamago 睇人地所講既超值..........你地覺得呢?
就算唔係管理層跳船, 淨睇份報告我都唔覺得隻野OK..............加埋管理層逃亡既風險.....就更加唔值!!!