http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/01/vs.html
2000 Berkshire Chairman's Letter :
Our main business — though we have others of great importance — is insurance. To understand
Berkshire, therefore, it is necessary that you understand how to evaluate an insurance company. The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; (2) its cost; and (3) most critical of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.
******
萬法歸宗﹐以上巴老的原則﹐其實可以作為企業分析的原則﹐不局限於保險股。
(1) the amount of float that the business generates;
我們可以把它想像成企業的盈利
(2) its cost;
企業付出的成本(原料﹑員工﹑管理﹑資本等等)
(3) most critical of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.
以上兩個項目的未來變化(即係企業的前景)
證券分析﹐亦是如此
(1) the amount of float that the business generates;
盈利和股息 (公司表現佳﹐經營團隊杰出﹐它的股價遲早會反映其價值)
(2) its cost;
預留安全的價格空間﹐以合理價格買進好公司﹐比好價錢買進平庸公司好多了。決定要靠邏輯和理性。
(3) most critical of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.
把注意力放在可預期前景的公司上。長期一貫營業歷史﹑前景看好﹑基本上生產同樣產品給同樣市場的公司﹐就可以知道這些公司的未來如何。
安全空間﹑承諾﹑低價﹑良好的前景。