15年前的3月，納斯達克突破5000點，「老虎基金」被逼清盤 年紀不輕輕吳向軍
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上週美元兌其它貨幣暴漲平均2.4%，引發股市小幅回撤。美國標普500指數從歷史最高水平下跌1.6%，納斯達克指數週一收於5008.1點，為2000年3月以來首次收於5000點以上，距離歷史最高點僅僅差0.5%。但是可惜，納指沒有「Hold」住，上週下跌0.7%，收於5000點以下。
納斯達克指數走勢圖，在過去15年走出了一個完美的「U」字。15年前的3月，納指在互聯網泡沫的推動下狂升到5000點。有意思的是，上週A股創業板也首次站到了2000點。其時，納斯達克的瘋狂遠遠超過現在A股創業板。當時的納斯達克指數的平均市盈率達到150倍。其實，估值到了這個水平，市盈率基本上已經沒有意義。只要和互聯網沾上邊的公司都能夠雞犬升天。無論是面向消費者，還是面向企業，還是電信網絡基礎建設，無不被瘋狂炒作。互聯網公司為了吸引眼球，花大價錢吸引顧客。成本不是問題，利潤無人顧及，點擊率、媒體曝光率比什麼都重要。賣東西的只要在網上，就可以白送。而白送得越多投資人越開心，追加的投資也就越多。只要是和網絡沾邊，投資人的錢是無限的。當年最轟動的故事是一家名不見經傳的Linux公司（VA Linux）上市首日股價竟然上漲7倍之多。
當時美股資深投資人紛紛表示看不懂，而投資新手大賺特賺。新股神層出不窮。如果有人討論估值，頓時會惹來無數人的恥笑。低估值的股票根本沒人看。估值越高越被捧得厲害。老股神們紛紛跌下神壇。從來不投資科技股的「股神」巴菲特成為「古董」，常被人揶揄。巴菲特還好，因為他只做多，不做空。多空都做的老牌對沖基金這時可慘了。1980年Julian Robertson成立的著名對沖「老虎基金」，經過18年的奮鬥，戰場遍佈歐美亞，資產在1998年達到220億美元，為當時最大的對沖基金，年均回報率達32%。結果老觀念遇到了新問題。面對互聯網泡沫，Robertson認為市場股票普遍高估，因此大量買入傳統公司如全美航空（US Airways），同時賣空估值高得離譜的朗訊（Lucent，電信設備）和美光科技（Micron，閃存等芯片公司）。結果不用說，老虎基金在1999年淨值下跌19%，而納斯達克指數當年幾乎翻倍。進入2000年，前兩個月老虎基金淨值又下跌13%。投資人大量抽出資金，老虎基金的資產大幅縮水至60億美元。由於對沖基金一般對於虧損的要求都比較嚴格，基金淨值要回到高點以後才能開始重新獲得佣金。面臨如此窘境，Julian Robertson在2000年3月30日宣佈關閉老虎基金。
Julian Robertson在關閉老虎基金的同時寫給投資人的一封信，當時和後來被廣為傳誦。在信中，他總結了自己的投資風格為簡單的「持續地承諾購買好股票和做空壞股票」（steady commitment to buying the best stocks and shorting the worst）。但是他承認，這個策略只在「理性的」（rational）市場有效，而在無理性的市場是無效的。他認為，當時的互聯網和電信行業的「瘋潮」（craze），以及各種類型投資人的瘋狂投資，製造了一個巨大的「龐氏騙局」（Ponzi Scheme），而這個「騙局」一定會破滅。Robertson對此充滿了信心。只是「老虎基金」無法存在下去了。
事實證明，Robertson的預言是正確的。萬有引力還是存在的，豬是不會飛的，投資最終是要回到客觀規律去的。只是太可惜，納斯達克指數在Robertson關閉了「老虎基金」之後立即轉頭向下，兩年之內下跌了80%。無數互聯網和電信設備商破產倒閉，包括老虎基金重金做空的朗訊科技。「老虎基金」只要再堅持兩個月，就有可能成為互聯網泡沫破裂過程中最大贏家。但是，它沒有堅持下來。 15年之後，滄海桑田，納斯達克又回到5000點。此5000點非彼5000點也。現在的納斯達克估值為21倍市盈率，是15年前的十分之一。收入、盈利、增長均十分健康，可持續性沒有疑問。但是指數中的權重股大變樣。蘋果公司當年還剛剛從破產邊緣脫身，現在市值已達7000億美元，去除現金後的估值只有12倍。15年前，谷歌剛剛初創、Facebook還不存在。搜索引擎市場還呈現由Lycos，Infoseek，Yahoo！，Excite，Inktomi等戰國爭霸的局面。這些搜索引擎當年各個估值數百億美元，現在除Yahoo！外都不存在了。當時電信設備巨頭思科市值首次突破5000億美元，現在市值不過當年的三分之一。北電、朗訊、AOL、WorldCom、Global Crossing、Nokia、Motorola這些當年叱咤風雲的名字現在都不見了。 納斯達克15年一輪迴。我們在重溫舊事的時候到底學到了什麼？歷史總是在不斷地重複自己，只不過時間、地點、人物有所不同而已。 最後附上Julian Robertson在關閉老虎基金是寫給投資人的一封信，以饗讀者。 Tiger Management released the following letter on March 30 of 2000 to its limited partners, announcing the closure of its funds.
In May of 1980, Thorpe McKenzie and I started the Tiger funds with total capital of $8.8 million. Eighteen years later, the $ 8.8 million had grown to $21 billion, an increase of over 259,000 percent . Our compound rate of return to partners during this period after all fees was 31.7 percent . No one had a better record.
Since August of 1998, the Tiger funds have stumbled badly and Tiger investors have voted strongly with their pocketbooks, understandably so. During that period, Tiger investors withdrew some $ 7.7 billion of funds. The result of the demise of value investing and investor withdrawals has been financial erosion, stressful to us all. And there is no real indication that a quick end is in sight.
And what do I mean by, "there is no quick end in sight?" What is "end" the end of? "End" is the end of the bear market in value stocks. It is the recognition that equities with cash-on-cash returns of 15 to 25 percent , regardless of their short-term market performance, are great investments. "End" in this case means a beginning by investors overall to put aside momentum and potential short-term gain in highly speculative stocks to take the more assured, yet still historically high returns available in out-of-favor equities.
There is a lot of talk now about the New Economy (meaning Internet, technology and telecom). Certainly the Internet is changing the world and the advances from biotechnology will be equally amazing. Technology and telecommunications bring us opportunities none of us have dreamed of.
"Avoid the Old Economy and invest in the New and forget about price," proclaim the pundits. And in truth, that has been the way to invest over the last eighteen months.
As you have heard me say on many occasions, the key to Tiger's success over the years has been a steady commitment to buying the best stocks and shorting the worst. In a rational environment, this strategy functions well. But in an irrational market, where earnings and price considerations take a back seat to mouse clicks and momentum, such logic, as we have learned, does not count for much.
The current technology, Internet and telecom craze, fueled by the performance desires of investors, money managers and even financial buyers, is unwittingly creating a Ponzi pyramid destined for collapse. The tragedy is, however, that the only way to generate short-term performance in the current environment is to buy these stocks. That makes the process self-perpetuating until the pyramid eventually collapses under its own excess.
I have great faith though that, "this, too, will pass." We have seen manic periods like this before and I remain confident that despite the current disfavor in which it is held, value investing remains the best course. There is just too much reward in certain mundane, Old Economy stocks to ignore. This is not the first time that value stocks have taken a licking. Many of the great value investors produced terrible returns from 1970 to 1975 and from 1980 to 1981 but then they came back in spades.
The difficulty is predicting when this change will occur and in this regard I have no advantage. What I do know is that there is no point in subjecting our investors to risk in a market which I frankly do not understand. Consequently, after thorough consideration, I have decided to return all capital to our investors, effectively bringing down the curtain on the Tiger funds. We have already largely liquefied the portfolio and plan to return assets as outlined in the attached plan.
No one wishes more than I that I had taken this course earlier. Regardless, it has been an enjoyable and rewarding 20 years. The triumphs have by no means been totally diminished by the recent setbacks. Since inception, an investment in Tiger has grown 85-fold net of fees; more than three time the average of the S&P 500 and five-and-a-half times that of the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index. The best part by far has been the opportunity to work closely with a unique cadre of co-workers and investors.
For every minute of it, the good times and the bad, the victories and the defeats, I speak for myself and a multitude of Tiger's past and present who thank you from the bottom of our hearts.
- Julian Robertson