http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_627a300f0102dw1a.html
以前曾看過一些前輩的文章,通過分析M1與M2的增長差,來看指數的牛熊走勢。我覺得M1-M2的差,雖然與指數並非完全正相關,但確實可以做一個方向性的判斷,至少可以看出指數的大體估值區位,以及判斷出指數的上漲主要是基本面因素推動還是資金面因素推動。
月份 | M0(億) | m0同比 | M1(億) | m1同比 | M2(億) | m2同比 | M1-M2 | ||||
Jan-05 | |
7.8% | |
15.8% | |
14.5% | 1.3% | ||||
Feb-05 | |
14.0% | |
11.1% | |
14.2% | -3.2% | ||||
Mar-05 | |
10.1% | |
10.4% | |
14.2% | -3.8% | ||||
Apr-05 | |
9.0% | |
10.5% | |
14.3% | -3.8% | ||||
May-05 | |
9.3% | |
10.4% | |
14.6% | -4.2% | ||||
Jun-05 | |
9.6% | |
11.3% | |
15.7% | -4.4% | ||||
Jul-05 | |
9.1% | |
11.0% | |
16.3% | -5.3% | ||||
Aug-05 | |
9.4% | |
11.5% | |
17.3% | -5.8% | ||||
Sep-05 | |
8.5% | |
11.6% | |
17.9% | -6.3% | ||||
Oct-05 | |
9.5% | |
12.1% | |
18.0% | -5.9% | ||||
Nov-05 | |
10.9% | |
12.7% | |
18.3% | -5.6% | ||||
Dec-05 | |
11.9% | |
11.8% | |
17.6% | -5.8% | ||||
Jan-06 | |
22.1% | |
10.6% | |
19.2% | -8.6% | ||||
Feb-06 | |
8.0% | |
12.4% | |
18.8% | -6.4% | ||||
Mar-06 | |
10.5% | |
12.7% | |
18.8% | -6.1% | ||||
Apr-06 | |
11.5% | |
12.5% | |
18.9% | -6.4% | ||||
May-06 | |
12.8% | |
14.0% | |
19.1% | -5.0% | ||||
Jun-06 | |
12.6% | |
13.9% | |
18.4% | -4.5% | ||||
Jul-06 | |
12.2% | |
15.3% | |
18.4% | -3.1% | ||||
Aug-06 | |
13.3% | |
15.6% | |
17.9% | -2.4% | ||||
Sep-06 | |
15.3% | |
15.7% | |
16.8% | -1.1% | ||||
Oct-06 | |
14.0% | |
16.3% | |
17.1% | -0.8% | ||||
Nov-06 | |
13.9% | |
16.8% | |
16.8% | 0.0% | ||||
Dec-06 | |
12.7% | |
17.5% | |
16.9% | 0.5% | ||||
Jan-07 | |
-4.6% | |
19.8% | |
15.8% | 4.0% | ||||
Feb-07 | |
25.1% | |
21.0% | |
17.8% | 3.2% | ||||
Mar-07 | |
16.7% | |
19.8% | |
17.3% | 2.5% | ||||
Apr-07 | |
15.1% | |
20.0% | |
17.1% | 2.9% | ||||
May-07 | |
13.9% | |
19.3% | |
16.7% | 2.5% | ||||
Jun-07 | |
14.5% | |
20.9% | |
17.1% | 3.9% | ||||
Jul-07 | |
15.1% | |
20.9% | |
18.5% | 2.5% | ||||
Aug-07 | |
15.0% | |
22.8% | |
18.1% | 4.7% | ||||
Sep-07 | |
13.0% | |
22.1% | |
18.5% | 3.6% | ||||
Oct-07 | |
13.4% | |
22.2% | |
18.5% | 3.7% | ||||
Nov-07 | |
13.6% | |
21.7% | |
18.5% | 3.2% | ||||
Dec-07 | |
12.2% | |
21.0% | |
16.7% | 4.3% | ||||
Jan-08 | |
31.2% | |
20.5% | |
18.9% | 1.7% | ||||
Feb-08 | |
6.0% | |
19.0% | |
17.4% | 1.6% | ||||
Mar-08 | |
11.1% | |
18.0% | |
16.2% | 1.8% | ||||
Apr-08 | |
10.7% | |
19.1% | |
16.9% | 2.1% | ||||
May-08 | |
12.9% | |
17.9% | |
18.1% | -0.1% | ||||
Jun-08 | |
12.3% | |
14.2% | |
17.4% | -3.2% | ||||
Jul-08 | |
12.3% | |
14.0% | |
16.4% | -2.4% | ||||
Aug-08 | |
10.9% | |
11.5% | |
16.0% | -4.5% | ||||
Sep-08 | |
9.3% | |
9.4% | |
15.3% | -5.9% | ||||
Oct-08 | |
10.6% | |
8.9% | |
15.0% | -6.2% | ||||
Nov-08 | |
9.0% | |
6.8% | |
14.8% | -8.0% | ||||
Dec-08 | |
12.7% | |
9.1% | |
17.8% | -8.8% | ||||
Jan-09 | |
12.0% | |
6.7% | |
18.8% | -12.1% | ||||
Feb-09 | |
8.3% | |
10.9% | |
20.5% | -9.6% | ||||
Mar-09 | |
10.9% | |
17.0% | |
25.5% | -8.5% | ||||
Apr-09 | |
11.3% | |
17.5% | |
26.0% | -8.5% | ||||
May-09 | |
11.2% | |
18.7% | |
25.7% | -7.1% | ||||
Jun-09 | |
11.5% | |
24.8% | |
28.5% | -3.7% | ||||
Jul-09 | |
11.6% | |
26.4% | |
28.4% | -2.1% | ||||
Aug-09 | |
11.5% | |
27.7% | |
28.5% | -0.8% | ||||
Sep-09 | |
16.0% | |
29.5% | |
29.3% | 0.2% | ||||
Oct-09 | |
14.1% | |
32.0% | |
29.4% | 2.6% | ||||
Nov-09 | |
15.0% | |
34.6% | |
29.7% | 4.9% | ||||
Dec-09 | |
11.8% | |
32.4% | |
27.7% | 4.7% | ||||
Jan-10 | |
-0.8% | |
39.0% | |
26.0% | 13.0% | ||||
Feb-10 | |
22.0% | |
35.0% | |
25.5% | 9.5% | ||||
Mar-10 | |
15.8% | |
29.9% | |
22.5% | 7.4% | ||||
Apr-10 | |
15.8% | |
31.3% | |
21.5% | 9.8% | ||||
May-10 | |
15.2% | |
29.9% | |
21.0% | 8.9% | ||||
Jun-10 | |
15.7% | |
24.6% | |
18.5% | 6.1% | ||||
Jul-10 | |
15.5% | |
22.9% | |
17.6% | 5.3% | ||||
Aug-10 | |
16.0% | |
21.9% | |
19.2% | 2.7% | ||||
Sep-10 | |
13.8% | |
20.9% | |
19.0% | 1.9% | ||||
Oct-10 | |
16.6% | |
22.1% | |
19.3% | 2.8% | ||||
Nov-10 | |
16.3% | |
22.1% | |
19.5% | 2.6% | ||||
Dec-10 | |
16.7% | |
21.2% | |
19.7% | 1.5% | ||||
Jan-11 | |
42.5% | |
13.6% | |
17.2% | -3.6% | ||||
Feb-11 | |
10.3% | |
14.5% | |
15.7% | -1.2% | ||||
Mar-11 | |
14.8% | |
15.0% | |
16.6% | -1.6% | ||||
Apr-11 | |
14.7% | |
12.9% | |
15.3% | -2.4% | ||||
May-11 | |
15.4% | |
12.7% | |
15.1% | -2.4% | ||||
Jun-11 | |
14.4% | |
13.1% | |
15.9% | -2.8% | ||||
Jul-11 | |
14.3% | |
11.6% | |
14.7% | -3.1% | ||||
Aug-11 | |
14.7% | |
11.2% | |
13.5% | -2.3% | ||||
Sep-11 | |
12.7% | |
8.9% | |
13.0% | -4.2% | ||||
Oct-11 | |
11.9% | |
8.4% | |
12.9% | -4.5% | ||||
Nov-11 | |
12.0% | |
7.8% | |
12.7% | -4.9% | ||||
Dec-11 | |
13.8% | |
7.9% | |
13.6% | -5.7% |