📖 ZKIZ Archives

思考的碎片--6/3 Internet 和Mobile Internet很多判斷和結論 slamnow

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_6a54e96a01012g0t.html

Desktop--Laptop--Mobile handset---Wearable---Embeded slamnow

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_6a54e96a01013ipi.html
Desktop--Laptop--Mobile handset---Wearable---Embeded

BI的好報告：Social+Mobile=Smobile

http://www.yicai.com/news/2012/10/2168985.html
此

前，BusinessInsider 的 BI Intelligence 曾發表了一份含金量十足的美國互聯網趨勢報告。近日，他們又發佈了一份專注於移動（mobile）及社交網絡（social networking）的報告《Social and Mobile》。該報告來自 9 月 27 日 BusinessInsider 主辦的 Social Media ROI 大會上，其中披露的數據及事實都十分耐人尋味。

移動、社交勢不可擋，商業化進程長途漫漫

·去年，全球智能手機銷量超過了 PC。BI 預測在未來幾年，平板電腦的銷量也會超過 PC。

·來自移動端的流量已經佔據全球總流量的 12%。

·截至 2012 年 3 月，人們每個月花在移動網頁以及應用上的總時間已經超過了 1200 億分鐘。一年之前，這個數字還不到 600 億分鐘。

·2011 年到 2012 年間，美國的智能手機佔有率從 35% 上升至 46%，功能手機從 48% 下降到 41%，無手機的人群比例為 12%。

·2012 年 1 月，來自 Nielsen 的數據顯示，智能手機的滲透率（普及率）在年輕高收入人群中最高。

·在美國，「社交」元素在手機使用中的佔有率在不斷攀升，其中社交網絡及博客方面的使用比重增加了兩成，逼近 40%。

·2011 年 12 月的數據，人們每天使用 Apps 的時間為 94 分鐘，瀏覽移動網頁的時間為 72 分鐘。

·在人們使用的 Apps，遊戲以及社交網絡佔了最大比重。來自 Flurry 的數據，2012 年第一季度，人們每天花在遊戲以及社交網絡應用上的時間各為 24 分鐘。

·Facebook 的移動用戶約為 5 億（註：最新數據顯示已經超過 6 億），Twitter 的過半流量來自移動端，純移動應用 Instagram 在兩年內突破了 1 億用戶量。

·交流是人們使用移動設備上社交網絡的最重要需求，而且，他們很喜歡用手機拍照以及接收資訊。

·但人們很少（32%）真正去點擊移動社交網絡上的廣告，移動端的「貨幣化」進程仍舊長途漫漫。

·移動端的 CPM 要遠遠低於桌面端（3.5 美元和 0.75 美元）。智能手機用戶對「突兀的廣告」很不感冒。智能手機上的廣告收效甚微。總之，移動端的廣告收入仍舊只有冰山一角。

移動商業如何靠譜？

移動端如何進行商業運作？有一種理論認為：只要利用好手機的定位功能，讓用戶通過「簽到」或者「許可」的方式分享自己的位置，商家就可以在用戶靠近的時候推送優惠券。然而這種基於位置的優惠券模式卻收效不佳。只有 36% 的用戶會使用商家提供的優惠券。

原因何在？因為這並不是人們平時習慣消費的方式。很少消費者會只因為折扣而走進一家商店，相反，商店裡銷售的東西需要足夠吸引，或者他們正好在那個 時間尋找你所要廣告的產品。另外一種「簽到」的思路似乎也無法成為主流。從數據來看，美國各個年齡層（18-29 歲，30-49 歲和 50 歲以上）人群使用簽到服務的比例都在 25% 以下。

電商沒有從社交網絡那裡得到太多助力。電商的總流量裡，來自 Facebook 以及 Twitter 的總流量僅佔比 0.52%。

BusinessInsider 認為「純正的」（Native）移動廣告才真正可行，比如 Facebook 在移動端推出的 Sponsored Stories，Twitter 的廣告推（Promoted Tweet）。這兩者有個共同特點，都可以被廣泛傳播（highly sharable）。

另外，BI 指出情景化（除了地理位置，根據用戶的愛好，興趣等屬性）的推薦也是可行的模式。在這種模式下，商家在用戶允許的情況下推送信息，並且這類信息應當不頻 繁，與用戶高度相關。此外，這種模式更適用於提供服務的商家，並且這種服務能夠引導用戶直接在智能手機上消費。

領跑的三輛馬車及潛在的贏家

Facebook：5 億以上的移動用戶，「無敵」的移動用戶參與度（mobile engagement）；但缺少有效的位置數據，對 Instagram 及 Glancee 等公司的收購或許會有所幫助。

Twitter：60% 以上的流量來自移動端，產品以及廣告平台都很「移動」，用戶的 Tweets 透露了很多信息。

Google：有非常好的資產組合，在廣告的相關性方面世界領先，擁有最普及（popular）的移動財產和服務；但在社交網絡的數據上，Google 有巨大的劣勢。

而在談及誰有可能拿到「勝利之匙」時，這份報告給出的名單有 Foursquare，Pinterest，Groupon，LivingSocial，蘋果（Apple），Microsoft 以及 Path 等新創公司。

投行思維的本質是資源配置 52mobile

http://xueqiu.com/4839966356/27638960
一、投行思維的意義——要做資源配置者

　　1、世界上有三類人：

　　第一，資源所有者。其實，資源是誰的不重要，關鍵要有資源配置權。

　　第二，資源配置者。在人類物質生產生活中，從事資源的投入-整合-運營-產出工作，或稱資源玩家。

　　第三，資源出賣者。這類人本身就是被配置的資源或資源載體。

　　2、這個世界，看透本質的人，都是在玩資源配置的。

　　政治家沒有本錢，卻可以動用全國資源，甚至影響全球資源流向；金融資本家和產業資本家運用少量資本，就可以借助金融體系支配大量別人的資產。所以，資源名義上都是人民的，實際上都是資源配置者的。看一個人能量多大，關鍵是他能配置多少資源。

　　二、投行思維的本質——宏觀資源配置

　　1、概念（動態角度）——引導資源投向：從國家、產業、到企業。

　　資源配置，個人理解為推動資源投向最有配置效率（利潤率）的地方。空間上，表現為引導資源依次流入最有效率的國家和地區、最有效率的產業、最有效率的企業、最有效率的項目、最有效率的個人。按先生的話說，資本逐利，資本圍繞資本增值率而流動，資本使用效率牽引著資本形成。投行思維的本質是宏觀資源配置（國家、產業、地區、企業）。項目、個人等微觀領域資源配置則是運營層面的事情。

　　2）精髓（靜態角度）——結構重組

　　投行思維的精髓是結構重組。結構重組，即對資源的種類、數量等時空分佈進行調整，產生由「石墨」到「金剛石」的增值效果。宏觀重組，是全社會範圍內進行的資源重組，比如國有經濟重組；中觀重組，是某行業或區域內部的資源重組，比如電力行業整合、上海地區資產重組；微觀重組，是企業內部和企業之間的資產重組，即投行業務中的併購重組。

　　三、投行思維的結構——五大要素、兩種結構

　　1、五大要素

　　1）金子——可以取得豐厚資本回報的價值窪地

　　2）地圖——取得豐厚回報的操作方法

　　3）自行車——金融技術、牽線搭橋等中介服務

　　4）你——客戶或戰略合作夥伴

　　5）我——投資銀行家

　　2、兩種結構

　　1）中介服務結構

　　即：我知道哪有金子，知道路（地圖），忽悠你過去搶，賣給你地圖和自行車。

　　比如，投行家會為客戶描繪產業整合後的美好藍圖，鼓動客戶實施併購戰略，並為其設計交易結構，提供私募融資服務。

　　2）投資控股結構

　　即：我知道哪有金子，知道路（地圖），忽悠你跟著我，給我自行車，我騎著去搶，分給你一點。

　　比如，一個投資控股公司董事長，設計了一個宏偉的商業模型和實施路徑後，便開始尋找能提供局部資源的各類合作夥伴（公司或個人），並說服其加入自己的隊伍，項目成功後，給其分成。

　　四、投行思維能力——四大能力

　　1、畫圖能力（目標+路徑+時點）

　　優秀的投行家，編故事的能力極強，這是其核心競爭力。通過描繪一幅遠方美景，告訴人們哪裡可以投資成功，如何操作可以實現，在什麼時候出手。最終效果是，使人心嚮往之，甘願出錢賣力。

　　2、協調能力

　　併購項目，投行家作為總協調人，需要打理好與監管部門、地方政府、併購方、目標方、會計師事務所、律所、資產評估機構等各方關係，確保萬無一失；具備投行思維、操盤投資控股公司的老總，對於每一步獲取什麼資源，相處到什麼程度等，均能夠做到掌控自如。

　　3、表達能力（文案+口頭）

　　如何把故事講的動聽，讓對方樂於接受，是一門藝術。與政府打交道，需要站在官方的立場，使用公文式的規範語言表達；與大型外資公司打交道，需要使用國際標準，通用語言表達；與性情豪放的民企老總，江湖大佬打交道，需要比他還江湖……總之，寫文案，口頭溝通，需要因人而異，長袖善舞。

　　4、金融能力

　　投行思維最終要體現在行動上。系統的資本經營意識、嫻熟的併購技術、紮實的財務、法律知識，是投資銀行家展現投行思維的必備基礎。

　　五、投行思維的訓練

　　思維方式，是一種長久的習慣，投行思維亦是如此。只有在實踐中不斷訓練投行思維，才有可能理解到位。

　　具體而言，可以先從結構重組的微觀角度入手，投身投資銀行併購業務，縱橫捭闔，或者打造投資控股公司，親自控局，不斷積累實戰經驗，歸納各種操作模式，把握人性冷暖，努力做到收放自如。

　　如果這一層面的事情做得遊刃有餘，又有使命感與好心情，可以切入結構重組的中觀、乃至宏觀領域，將投行思維發揚光大，致力於提升全社會資源配置效率，造福一方水土，善待百姓蒼生。

China Mobile & TenCent.....It's complicated,but

I looked at the market on Thursday, what surprised me the most was both China Mobile (941) and TenCent (700) were moved reciprocal against the market trend. Friday morning, many friends were checking around, what was going on to China Mobile?

In a glance of recent news, I had replied and stated it could be a good set of SPD result, which announced a 3 for 10 bonus issue and dividend of RMB1.50 per share, but why TenCent had been moving parallels against China Mobile two days in a row?

Checking is part of the job, verifying is part of the learning curve or experiences accumulation. Why I bother to put my trading trail/idea into writing? A lot of friends asked about it, simply because good habit is the only way to cultivate the trading discipline and the greatest asset is the discipline to stay discipline.

It’s a record for self revision and hoping to improve it from time to time. Best is someone could point out where I had gone wrong or dipped into any errors.

Every season has a reason
Kindly see the news below; In fact, it has been constantly flowing around the market if you have been the China Mobile audient.

03/02/2010 16:09
併購消息刺激騰訊股價急升６％，中移動澄清無意收購或入股

《經濟通通訊社３日專訊》中移動（００９４１）發言人向外電表示，無意全部或部分收購騰訊控股（００７００）。

有報章報道，中移動董事長王建宙表明，不能排除與騰訊之間有股本合作之可能。受併購消息刺激，騰訊今日一度高見１５１﹒６元，收報１５０﹒４元，顯著上升５﹒９９％。

上月初有內地傳媒報道，王建宙到訪騰訊位於深圳的總部，商討可能收購一事。中移動發言人則在上月初強調，去年１２月底，王建宙是在正常交流拜訪的過程中會見騰訊管理層。（ｅｈ）


04/01/2010 09:45
中移動（００９４１）澄清沒有計劃收購騰訊（００７００）

《經濟通通訊社４日專訊》有內地傳媒報道，中移動（００９４１）董事長兼首席執行官王建宙於上周四（３１日）率領中國移動代表團抵達騰訊（００７００）的深圳總部，就收購騰訊作進一步磋商。不過，中移動發言人作出澄清，指有關消息毫無根據，中移動沒有收購騰訊的意向。
據了解，王建宙曾到訪過深圳多家企業，不只有騰訊一家。

據有關報道，中移動一直有收購騰訊的想法，但因中移動體制問題及騰訊不滿收購條件而未能成事。但隨着中移動即時短訊服務「飛信」需強制對外開放，進軍互聯網亦不順利，使中移動考慮收購有皇牌ＱＱ在手的騰訊。（ｊｗ）


So, pretty obvious that the M&A angel is cooking behind the sense. Even though, China Mobile had been denied it, but the takeover news had been flowing around for the last couple of months. I think it is just same like most other countries, denying doesn’t help because insiders had been waving the price.

“Insider trading is just like having an affair, hate and criticizes others when you are not having it, addicted to it when you are having it. I’m here by not having any insider trading in Chine Mobile or TenCent, but to observe the insider trading.”

Why TenCent?
Briefly, I’m so sorry to say; my understanding toward the TenCent business model is equally like the layman. Thus, please DIY, knowing further about the TenCent business.

On the other hand, I had checked with the industry analysts, concluded the merger in between both companies business is like “如虎添翼”, direct translation is like putting a pair of wings onto a tiger. Or perfect synergy to be precise.
NOTE: Those are young analyst views.

However, saliva is flowing out non-stopping when you look into the TenCent number carefully.

The average net profit margin for its business model is approximately 38%, which attached with an average growth rate of about 58% for the last five years since listed in year 2004.

Very tame total borrowing of merely above RM470 million with backed by net cash position of RMB11.5 billion as of FY-end 2009.

Market capitalization is standing at HK$295,123,290,691.20 as of last Friday at the closing price of HK$161.40. Trading at high P/E of about 49.5x with the support of its high PEG.

Therefore, I’m interested to become TeCent shareholder if the price is reasonable.

How about any clue from China Mobile?
The most recent interview of China Mobile CEO during the recent press conference just after the SPD 20% stake acquisition. As below statement is indicating the future direction of its acquisition; 20 March 2010


“對於未來的並購，我可以明確表態，中國移動不會投資地產、能源等非電信主業的產業。我們的收購一直集中於電信業務，未來也會繼續探索並購目標，能夠通過並購充分發揮公司主業的協同效應，並提高公司EPS。對於並購，我們一直很謹慎，目前暫時還沒有新的目標。”

“If you talk to a man in a language he understands, that goes to his head. If you speak to him in his language, that goes into is heart.” – Nelson Mandela.

Pal, sorry about maintaining the original statement in Mandarin. I’m totally agreed with Nelson Mandela in the above mentioned quote. Please use Google translate, if you need to understand the original juice.

Thus, looking at both share prices performance since last Thursday till today’s before lunch; China Mobile and TenCent rested at HK$80 +$0.70 and HK$163.60 +HK$2.20 respectively. I think the insiders are accumulating.

How the takeover mechanism works?
Putting down the market capitalization as of current price;
(a) TenCent at HK$163.6 is HK$299,146,036,908.80
(b) China Mobile at HK$80.00 is HK$1,604,915,124,880.00
Comparatively, China Mobile is about 18 times bigger than TenCent in term of market capitalization.

Therefore, share issuing could be an idea mechanism to take over TenCent.

Also Very much depends on;
(a) What is the valuation post merger?
(can work out a post merger model)
(b) How much China Mobile is willing to pay?
(c) Whether the Chinese government is involved in the merger?

If the government is involved, the deal is pretty easy to go through.

My strategy is
China Mobile, buy on weakness, regardless whatsoever rumours are flowing around. The bottom line is this company has plenty of cash even post 20% stake SPD acquisition. Most importantly, China Mobile is in the acquire mode, which had been expressed by its’ CEO in many occasions.

It's just an idea from the share prices reflective, which came across my head for your perusal. Please tell me if I'm wrong.
thanks & regards

China Mobile again !!

杀死人的微笑！
The above Mandarin sentence is meaning; “killing smiles”.
This is the world for all the China Mobile’s fan/shareholder currently.

Many were trying to reach me and find out what is going on to the crazy share price, which is moving against the market trend since after 10.30am this morning.

I’m sorry to say; I don’t know much or to be precise, what is the impetus for its price acceleration. However, in a glance of what is going on surrounding China Mobile if you recalled recently;
(1) Listing on SSE.
(2) Acquisition of 20% stake in SPD Bank.

I had just gone through the newly announced SPD Bank FY result, not to elaborate further here because I’m in the rush to meet-up someone, looking for my dealing-platform in KL.

SPB had delivered a not too bad set of FY 2009 result, which attached with a bonus issue of 3 for 10 to its shareholder, and a RMB1.5 dividend.
I think this is the reason that excited the China Mobile share price.
Let’s go in details and digging into SPB later when I’m free.

RMB....China Mobile

I’m not an economist, but who love “rojak”, putting all facts and available information on the table; to find out what’s what, if I get it right, rewards are to be attached by the market and vice-versa.

Recent two years, most of the main stream media have been reporting constantly about appreciation of China’s Yuan or RMB. However, emerged various vary opinions about its VALUE. Wondering how and based on what those VALUE are rated. The world seems trying to shake the rock; billion of hot money has been flushing in China, hoping for the RMB piggy back. How about those companies with significant amount of RMB such as China Mobile?

The below news;
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- China’s yuan is facing increasing pressure to appreciate because of a widening interest-rate differential, the country’s top currency regulator said in a statement. The spread between China’s one-year deposit rate and its U.S. equivalent reached 1.43 percentage points today.

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s inflation reached a 16- month high, Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today.

Based on the news, certainly the RMB is on the appreciation journey. The world is fully aware about the contingent impacts and just like any of us, trying to seek for capital outlet to overcome the inflationary eroding.
Thus, at this moment, letting the bank to generate profit from your saving is not a savvy act.

Come back to China Mobile, according to its Interim 2009 result, reported a net cash position of about RMB246 billion.
If I’m sitting on such a cash pile, I don’t mind paying some fees to get some advices from the investment banker or fund manager; a better idea than putting my cash in the bank?
China Mobile Took the 20% stake in Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPD) at per share of RMB18.03 or RMB39,801,430,722.30 seems created some blast-comments. Virtually, all negative calls for China Mobile.
As a contrarian, I looked at the interim 2009 numbers again. Workout the number, after the 20% stake in SPD settled. China Mobile is still sitting on cash about RMB206 billion.
Comparatively, the SPB 20% stake is too small to shake China Mobile.
Don’t forget, the number is from Interim 2009, how about the China Mobile net profit from 30 June 2009 till now? I think the profit from these nine months “vacuum period”, would be able to add some aids to its cash position and untouched the dividend payout ratio.

The devil is in the details – Asking myself what’s the best estimation full year 2009profit forecast, I don’t know due to the low capacity of my research facility. The only equipment for me to outride others is, working hard to gain familiarity that derives a “feeling” towards the trend briefly.

Again, a glance of the Interim 2009 numbers, China Mobile had delivered a merely above RMB55 billion profit, how much going to be for the second half of the year, a period of six months when we were going through some festive seasons, tendency to consume more of the communication services.

Assuming:
(1) The net profit is to be dropped 10% to about RMB50billion.
(2) CAPEX for 3G is budgeted RMB10billion.
(3) Balance cash of RMB40billion, it is enough to “off-set” the SPB 20% stake
purchase amount included the fees involved.

Note: I don’t think the net profit is going to deteriorate, the number of subscriber had reached 527,398,000 as of 31 January 2010.
Year 2020

The year of 2020, Malaysia is dreamed to be a developed nation. Meanwhile, Shanghai is emerged to be a world financial centre. What is the valuation for a Shanghai home-grown bank when Shanghai becomes the world financial centre?
Or what is the valuation of SPB ten years later?

Lastly, as I always emphasized;

“The greatest risk in life is, not aware of what I don’t know.”

I don’t agree to those institutional on the theory of; no synergy for China Mobile to take the 20% stake in SPB.

I would rather recognize as harmless for China Mobile to have the 20% SPB.
“In the long run, investing in the bank share is better than letting the bank profit from your saving.”

Conclusion is;
the RMB VALUE is expecting to appreciate whereby the inflationary pressure is growing from strength to strength.

Investing in the China Banking business that able to generate some RMB dominated incomes should be priced at a premium multiple earnings ratio than keeping the cash, which would be eroded by inflationary in the long run.

China Mobile valuation shouldn’t be oppressed by the SPB 20% stake purchase.
Rewarding or gruelling by the market, shall see in a week. China Mobile result is expecting to be announced next week.

Ex-China Mobile official gets suspended death sentence

1 : GS(14)@2011-07-30 16:46:18

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-07/23/content_12966609.htm

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2 : GS(14)@2011-07-30 16:46:47

He is thereby inducted into the Webb-site Hall of Shame.
所以他已經被加入Webb-Site的惡人堂。

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