Last year, I’ve posted a cycle theory on HSI : http://clcheung.wordpress.com/2012/09/23/hidden-cycles
While I have not adjusted the cycle length as far, here is an updated diagram:
To make it clearer to see, zoom in a bit :
It seems the cycle is still in effect. Good news is, if history repeats, HSI has passed the bottom and started a new cycle already. It is on a uptrend.
However, even a cycle really exists, the top and bottom of the cycle may be drifted from the predicted time frame by months. As one may expected there usually deep V at the market collapse bottoms, drifted by such a scale means that the cycle is not that useful.
But since the cycle length is about to be 368 days, a 92 day moving average can be used as a trend trading signal to capture the major wave:
But if the market goes higher, the current turnover seems not enough. Either the index goes sideways and MUPI turn strong, or new money flow into HK to support this cycle.
You can argue that the historical data is not enough or the recent movement seems not fitting well the cycle lines. I have doubts too. It seems the recent price movement indicates the cycle length is widen a bit.
Well, it is a believe it or not theory. Let’s see.
出國洽公難免碰到計程車司機或餐廳侍者態度不佳情況。適時表達不滿雖有必要,但若現場亦有客戶或主管,場面一旦劍拔弩張,恐怕大家都難下台,不妨取巧開個玩笑,既點到痛處,讓對方知所警惕,也不至於有損風度。以下試舉3例。 【情境一】趕時間,計程車司機卻慢吞吞 【與其說】Faster! 快點!【不如說】We finally reached seven miles an hour. 我們的車終於每小時可跑7英里了。 解析:車速1小時7英里其實很慢,但用了「終於」兩字,司機馬上感受到你的不耐煩。seven不是指定用法,可依據實際車速替換數字。 例句:We finally reached ten miles an hour.We may need to take another plane. (我們的車終於每小時可跑10英里,我們可能得搭另一班飛機了。) [情境二]購物時,店員心不在焉找錯錢。 [與其說]You're making a mistake here.你弄錯了。 [不如說I'd like the right change,if you don't mind.你若不介意,請找我正確的零錢。 解析:if you don't mind用在這裡,形式上客氣,但也達到效果。 例句:This is not the first time.I'd Iike the right change,if you don't mind. (這不是第一回了,你若不介意,請找我正確的零錢。) [情境三] ,餐點差,侍者服務態度也很糟 [與其說]I will not come to this restaurant again! 我再也不來這家餐廳了! [不如說]Now I know why nobody comes to this restaurant.現在我知道為何沒人光顧了。 解析:直接表明自己不會再光顧,搞不好被反將一軍『不差你這個客人』;改用『知道為何沒人光顧』,既幽默也夠嗆辣。 例句:Is this So-called hot meal? Now l understand why nobody comes to this restaurant. (這是所謂的熱食?現在我知道為何沒人光顧這家餐廳了。) 撰文者湯名潔 |