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Asia Fund Space 訪問 – HK Analyst Thumbs Up On Thru-Train by 盧志威

來源: http://www.hunghuk.com/2014/10/23/asia-find-space-%e8%a8%aa%e5%95%8f-hk-analyst-thumbs-up-on-thru-train/

Asia Fund Space 訪問 – HK Analyst Thumbs Up On Thru-Train

AT JUST 28, Mr. William Lo already has couple colorful feathers in his fedora – he has not only published his first novel but is also an influential portfolio manager with Ample Capital in Hong Kong. He told Asia Fund Space the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect share trading scheme comes not a moment too soon.

He must be doing something right as the portfolio he manages has risen 12% this year, compared to just a 2% rise for Hong Kong stocks overall.


Not yet thirty, Ample Capital Portfolio Manager Mr. William Lo is not shy on the lecture circuit.

Asia Fund Space:  You just published your first book last month, 一個80後告訴你他為什麽是有錢人 (A Twenty-Something’s Take on How the Rich Get Rich). What made a young busy professional like you decide to write the book and give us the lowdown on what’s inside?

Mr. William Lo, Portfolio Manager, Ample Capital:  I’ve been interested in finance since as long as I can remember. More recently, when I was 17, it was the year 2003. And anyone who was in Hong Kong – or Greater China at the time – remembers the atmosphere of dread we all felt, oftentimes afraid to leave our homes for fear of contracting SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).

But I found great peace, solace and a sense of security studying securities that year, mainly because not only were my peers wary of going to crowded places for much of that year, but they felt much safer locked up at home with their gadgets and games.


一個80後告訴你他為什麽是有錢人
(A Twenty-Something’s Take on How
the Rich Get Rich), by Mr. William Lo

I soon found that I could virtually have libraries to myself, and I would sit in virtual solitude that year in Hong Kong’s nearly empty reading rooms poring over the vast financial and investing sector research materials they had on hand.

At the time, I was too young to put money in the market under my own name, but did have relatives willing to stand behind my hunches and allow me to buy and sell under their name, thus giving me my initial immersion into the business of share trading.

With this in mind, I wanted to write a book that would not only encapsulate my experiences as an analyst and investor, but also inspire other would-be, up-and-coming financial sector professionals to succeed by way of my career example.


The benchmark Hang Seng Index (above) is up just 2% YTD, whlle Hong Kong investor Mr. William Lo’s portfolio has risen 12%.
Chart: Bloomberg

But it’s not just a tome about good and bad picks, or my history of bullish and dud choices.

I would say only about 20% of the book’s content is devoted to the nuts and bolts of investing while a good portion concerns what I have noticed and learned about good business management practices.

In short, it’s an advice book on how successful people make their money, whether via investing or developing their own businesses.

I also devote a chapter to how some of the world’s headline actors and entertainment sector celebrities have managed to make more money than the chairpersons of well-known blue chip enterprises.

So the book is not just about seasoned veterans in the commercial spaces and how they became rich, but is more about how a wide cross-section of the wealthy from various social strata and occupations, became well heeled over time.


Author of his Success:  Ample Capital Portfolio Manager Mr. William Lo published his
first book last month, 一個80後告訴你他為什麽是有錢人 (A Twenty-Something’s Take
on How the Rich Get Rich).

Asia Fund Space:  The Year of the Horse has not been particularly kind to the region, either in terms of GDP performance or equity market prices.

How do you think the Hong Kong stock market will finish out the year?

Mr. William Lo:  I expect sentiment to improve as the year draws to a close, and assuming there are no major shocks in the fourth quarter, I expect the benchmark Hang Seng Index to be rangebound around the 25,000 level.

I also anticipate sentiment further improving next, as I don’t expect the low China GDP growth figures to continue on much longer, thanks to what are likely to be a new raft of stimulus measures from Beijing should the economy maintain such stubbornly sluggish expansion rates into 2015.


Ample Capital Portfolio Manager Mr. William Lo keeps a close eye on market
trends in both Hong Kong and the PRC.

Asia Fund Space:  The Hang Seng Index is currently hovering around 23,000 points. That’s 3.4% higher than year-earlier levels and up 2.2% from the beginning of the year.

However, it’s currently down sharply from the well-over 25,000 achievement seen early last month.

Given the recently sluggishness – and street protests in Hong Kong — investor chat these days is abuzz with talk of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect — a market mechanism which could kick off as early as this month that enables international investors to buy shares in Shanghai while also allowingPRC investors the opportunity to buy stocks listed in Hong Kong.

But some are predicting significant growing pains for the scheme as given the quotas that keep a lid on the amount that can be traded, as well as a proscription on day trading, both regulations that have often been phased out in other more established capital markets overseas.

What is your take on this potentially game changing gambit?

Mr. William Lo:  It may launch by end-October but I think it may be pushed back to November.

The delayed start can most clearly be blamed on differences in the two markets between regulatory issue, especially in terms of taxation.

That being said, it can’t be blamed on either side in particular and I think both sides are so far unprepared on the whole.


House Rules:  Will Singapore and Hong Kong-listed China New Town Development
get a big boost from Shanghai investors finding its easier to investor in Hong Kong
listcos following the imminent launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect plan?

Despite the delays, the plan cannot be launched a moment too soon as I think it is highly anticipated by both sides, and overseas investors as well.

The markets have become even more efficient, and the A/H share premium that was a wide gulf a few years ago has already become something much more resembling dual-listed parity.

And following the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect launch, premiums on either side of the de facto border will become a thing of history.

I think Shanghai will be the bigger beneficiary of the Connect, both in terms of more enhanced transparency and will open up A-shares to global investors, thus making terms like QFII and ETFs potentially relics of history someday.

Overall, the plan is very helpful in bringing about a true, freeflow of capital between markets and continents.

by Andrew Vanburen ([email protected])

盧誌威
《鴻鵠財誌》創辨人盧誌威,現任豐盛資產管理組合交易經理,證監會持牌人,Yahoo財經欄名《鴻鵠經誌》出自史記「燕雀安知鴻鵠之誌」,鴻鵠於古中國是白色鳳凰,善高飛,寓意,燕雀身小深信貧富不問出身,只憑誌氣決心。
Posted in 港股投資 and tagged .
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    國際短片節 – 生與死 Raging Bull

    來源: http://hkcitizensmedia.com/2014/12/22/%E5%9C%8B%E9%9A%9B%E7%9F%AD%E7%89%87%E7%AF%80-%E7%94%9F%E8%88%87%E6%AD%BB/

    今年贊助了會長夫人和一班對電影有濃厚興趣的年青人,拍一部短片參加國際短片比賽。上星期贊助的短片在油麻地百老匯戲院上影,連同兩部國際的短片一齊播出,三齣戲都以父親為題材。

    第一部短片是來自俄羅斯,片名是「父親」。故事發生在俄羅斯一個山區,一個年青人無緣無故的被警察拘捕。接著鏡頭就是被捕年青人的父親,一位老人,他帶著剛屠宰的羊,送給警察,希望能把兒子保釋出來,但得不到要領。老人回山區家時,發現一個逃兵,飢寒交迫,出於好心收留了逃兵。老人想下,如果他拘捕逃兵,交受軍隊可以得到5千美元的報酬,他可以用這筆錢,救他兒子。於是他把逃兵打暈,關了起來,接著就入城通知軍方捉人。

    老人回到家裏竟然發現兒子已經被釋放了,既然兒子已經獲釋,他也不需要舉報逃兵的錢,於是他就放了逃兵。當軍方車到時,把5千美元報酬交給他,老人對軍隊說,逃兵已經跑掉。當然士兵發覺是老人放走逃兵,但沒有出聲。軍隊離開後,老人找逃兵,把寒衣給他,幫助他逃走。但當老人再回到家裏時,他竟然發現一個大包裹,打開才發現是他兒子屍體。他以兒子的生命來換逃兵的生命,短片是對暴政的控訴,劇情緊扣心弦,相當有水準。

    citylifedeath_4

    第二部短片是來自荷蘭,但實在是伊朗製作,片名是戰爭。故事發生在1982年,伊拉克侵略伊朗。伊朗抵抗伊拉克攻擊西部重鎮,霍拉姆沙赫爾Khorramshahr,伊朗保衛國家的英勇戰事。片一開始就在戰壕內,伊朗士兵開戰前早禱,按什葉派傳統,戰士要打自己胸膛,念經,求真主阿拉賜予勇氣,戰勝敵人。 祈禱完畢士兵去攻打伊拉克敵軍,主角穆罕默德發現一個怕得要死的士兵,不停在顫抖。穆罕默德安慰他,說真主會照顧他。下一個鏡頭,怕死的士兵被炮擊中,腸破血流。穆罕默德安慰他,為真主及國家犠牲,將入天堂。跟著,士兵就在穆罕默德手中死去。 伊朗軍隊傷亡慘重,幾乎死了一半士兵,需要後方新血補充。穆罕默德在新兵中,竟然發現自己13歲的兒子來到前方參軍。穆罕默德責罵他的兒子,不準他打仗,一定要他回家。他兒子反駁,為了真主,他一定要參加聖戰,不會理會父親的命令,如果戰死沙場,他會升入天堂。穆罕默德沒有辦法向兒子說明,戰爭的可怕,死亡是完結,真主根本不理會人的死活。最後一個鏡頭是穆罕默德和他13歲兒子一起參加開戰前早禱。這齣戲是關於生和死,真主和生命的意義,戰爭的殘酷,雖然是短片,卻十分動人。

    最後一齣戲是香港製作,描寫一個現代典型父親的故事。開始是主角參加老闆的生日派對,他和五歲兒子表現。主角在一間玩具公司做設計,工作15年,忠誠為僱主工作。老闆夫人叫他要兒子參加多項活動,例如小提琴,遊泳,至少四項活動,令到兒子一點空閒時間都沒有。下一個鏡頭老闆無情的炒他,說他沒有創意。被炒的主角全力投入為兒子找小學,帶兒子去學琴,遊泳等。另一方面老闆是建制派,但他的成年兒子支持佔中,不停和他爭執。最後主角找到新工作,喜劇收場。最後一幕,兩夫婦見小學校長。小學校長讚他們準備好,但校長問兩夫婦,到底他們想兒子長大,成為一個怎樣的人?兩夫婦竟然不知道怎去答,顯示香港教育及家長的膚淺。

    看完這三齣戲感覺好深,一個人的藝術成就,反映自己生活的背景。當一個要面對生與死的抉擇時,自然會感受到生死的衝擊,寫出動人的故事。當一個人生在繁華的香港時,耳濡目染,只能夠關心到的是兒女入學,雨傘運動等。香港的創作,只能反映香港社會的膚淺。繁榮穩定的社會,最關心是兒女的教育,或者是去那裡旅行,日圓滙率等等,藝術家不能表達到對生命的渴求,生死的問題,不能夠寫出動人的故事,或者創作。生於亂世,面對生死,才能有心中的說話。生於太平盛世,只可以流於表面浮華。香港就是這樣的社會,藝術家也只能反映社會的局限。

     

    Ragingbull

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    讀者回信 – 地產霸權及自由行: 香港下世代墜落的根源 by Marie Kwan

    來源: http://www.hunghuk.com/2015/09/23/%e8%ae%80%e8%80%85%e5%9b%9e%e4%bf%a1-%e5%9c%b0%e7%94%a2%e9%9c%b8%e6%ac%8a%e5%8f%8a%e8%87%aa%e7%94%b1%e8%a1%8c-%e9%a6%99%e6%b8%af%e4%b8%8b%e4%b8%96%e4%bb%a3%e5%a2%9c%e8%90%bd%e7%9a%84%e6%a0%b9/

    讀者回信 – 地產霸權及自由行: 香港下世代墜落的根源

    1201092227112403

     

     

    看看近月市況,經濟逆轉,人人自危,很多人已慢慢醒覺地產霸權及自由行的劇毒種子已開始在香港開花結果了,香港人一是選擇繼續被吸乾,一是選擇忍受陣痛開刀切除。但己見香港人已中毒太深,大多都會寧願選擇繼續活於comfort zone當中,反正現在大家都只是活在當下,說到底只是下一代埋單受苦而已。那些發展商、大商家等等有關既得利益者這幾年已賺夠可以走資移民外國嘆世界,那會理下一代港人死活。

    在香港,地產霸權及自由行多年來不斷悄悄然禍害港人自立能力及生活質素。君不見現在滿街金行藥房海味店及所謂"電子免稅店",而且泰半都是"服務"內地人的奸商騙子,香港真的需要這麼多遊客店嗎? 政府又沒有主動把關執法,導致現在香港旅遊業聲名狼藉。

    事實上在香港消費真的是貼錢買難受,租金昂貴令餐廳商店地方異常擠迫,服務態度又日益惡劣,貨品價錢又因租金貴得離譜,滿街都是"服務"內地遊客的老千騙徒,市容每況愈下,計程車司機態度惡劣,拒載頻頻;去過日本旅遊,回到香港完全感受到當中巨大差異。 大多商戶都要謀取"暴利"才足夠交租,但普羅大眾已用大部分工資供/租樓房,根本無力再去消費。 這些所有退步墜落跟民不聊生都是地產霸權跟自由行洐生出來的禍害。香港一年到晚只懂吹噓自己是購物天堂,目的只是想賺盡內地人金錢,完全將旅客體驗跟感受置之不理,連旅遊業都因此弄得一塌糊塗。在地產霸權同自由行這些"容易錢"之下,香港人真的已變得又笨又遲鈍,集我們競爭對手的缺點於一身: 語言差、零創意、高惰性、自欺欺人、大商家壟斷主要行業、貧富越趨懸殊,香港過去賺錢太過容易,引致各行各業不知不覺已落後於人,現在大圍環境逆轉無力轉身,根本完全自甘墮落。

    沒有自由行之前香港是否貧窮地區?反而近幾年大家工資雖然上漲不少,但物價卻狂飆,實際上大家購買力反被榨乾,實際上窮了許多,政府只懂用賬面薪金來欺騙平民百姓,胡說回歸之後港人生活改善了多少。事實上,經濟結構同勞動力是會隨大圍環境自動調節,香港人強頂本來就是靈活變通,但現在正正因為自由行跟地產太過暴利,造成今日產業單一化跟勞動力流動性低的困局,做老板只要投資地產就坐定定年年超高回報,開金行藥房海味店保證賺大錢,為什麼要做實業慢慢來?人家星加坡產業均衡,互惠互利,他們一樣沒有資源,更加不像香港有中央支持什麼"通"及什麼貿易協定,但人家人均GDP早已超越我們香港;人家沒有地產霸權,也沒有一年誇張的幾千萬自由行撐住,看看星加坡,大家就知道根本整個劇本就是發展商、大商家這些既得利益者跟港府編出來的大話和催眠: ~~~ 香港一定"需要"高樓價和炒賣資產跟自由行去續命,根本沒有能力開拓其他產業雲雲~~~沒有地產霸權及自由行香港人就只能做漁夫農民~~~。不對…因為地產霸權及自由行,已令香港人失去本來的生存能力,現在港人可能連做漁夫農民資格也沒有了。

    香港人不想吃老本,要持續開拓發展高增值行業,現在實在需要強忍痛楚,像戒毒一樣,初期必定很痛很辛苦,但總好過最後按捺不住不斷再吸毒致最後返魂無術。香港不趕快轉型繼續只願吃地產同自由行老本,只會讓星加坡韓國不斷拋離,千萬不要推卸責任到高營商成本,借詞工業已死,星加坡人工貴地也貴,不過人家沒有阿爺照顧,所以祇好多動腦筋用耐性做實業逐步前進,香港過去幾年亳不費力就有自由行下來派錢,所以不復過往靈活多變,刻苦耐勞的優良品質。美國同日本人工成本遠超香港,但近年返而不少工業同工種回流本國生產 (http://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5046891)。真慨嘆香港人現在只是像一個將會破產的富家子一樣,不捨 easy money ,但又失去了自己生存能力,不知何去何從,但回頭已太難,覆水難收。

    Posted in 宏觀經濟 and tagged .
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