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劉強東:我為什麽要去哥倫比亞上學?

來源: http://new.iheima.com/detail/2013/1223/57331.html

2013年就要過去了,i黑馬很懷戀他。2013年對於京東也是值得懷戀的一年,首先他們的營收額達到了歷史性的1000億,並且,創始人劉強東去美國哥倫比亞大學留學了四個月。而劉強東為什麽要去美國留學?他自己說有兩個原因:思考、考驗團隊。以下為劉強東口述:我在美國哥倫比亞大學。王力宏,大家都知道,就是(在)那所學校(上過幾天課)。大家沒有一個人相信我在那(是)真正上學,很多友商開玩笑說,你在美國幹點什麽重要的事情沒?其實真沒有。(i黑馬註:東哥,王力宏不是哥大的而是伯克利學院的,力宏的老婆是哥大的。)在哥大,我也有很多同學,其中有中國人。我絕對(是)一個純粹的學生,享受最快樂的四個月,我相信這四個月的時光讓任何一個同行知道,他們一定會羨慕得發瘋。在課程方面很簡單,學了英語,我的英語比以前好很多,但我的英語有一個特色,美國人聽不懂。去美國留學,有兩個原因:第一個我需要思考。我覺得去美國上學是很正常的事情,為什麽我不能去上學?享受一下學生平等自由的快樂時光,而且你作為一個創業者,連續15年狂奔,需要時間思考,把事情想透。在國內,我的時間一定會碎片化,助理不斷安排時間,幹這個幹那個,去了美國我把手機號給換了,唯一能找到我的就是郵件。第二,我可以檢驗京東的團隊。我去美國和京東IPO一點關系沒有。很多人覺得京東在我去美國留學四個月的時候,會被打亂,其實沒有打亂。十年了,京東到了檢驗團隊協作,團隊自主性的時候了。如果一個十年的公司,CEO不好的話也是非常危險。檢驗的結果超出我的預期,思考的結果也是超出預期,結論就是做學生真好。但我明年肯定不會再上學了。我覺如果明年再上半年學,京東會發展得很好,但是確確實實對股東不太公平,股東給我發了工資,一年不在,是一個不負責任的CEO。(京東)在美國開年會,我開玩笑說,(我)要(再)學習一年,所有人全跳起來了,第二天都約我見面聊聊。 相關公司: 數據來自 創業項目庫 作者:i黑馬 | 編輯:weiyan | 責編:韋
劉強 為什麼 要去 去哥 倫比 上學
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哥倫比亞環保禁令推高歐洲煤炭價格

來源: http://wallstreetcn.com/node/71756

出於環保考慮,哥倫比亞政府於今年1月1日頒布一項新法律,禁止礦商使用“起重機加駁船”的方法將煤炭裝上貨船。受此影響,哥倫比亞的煤炭出口預計將在今年早期下降1/3。作為全球第四大煤炭出口國,哥倫比亞的煤炭大量出口歐洲。周三周四的交易中,由於煤炭供應的減少,歐洲煤炭價格上漲超過3美元。 起重機加駁船的裝載方法存在缺陷。大約在2007年,政府首次提出要禁止這種做法。而一年前,美國礦商Drummond的駁船由於惡劣的天氣翻船,在哥倫比亞將一堆煤炭撒入加勒比海。這起事件引起了公眾對煤炭裝載問題的關註。通過起重機將煤炭運上駁船,會導致大量煤和灰塵落入大海,汙染海水。而一個全封閉的傳送帶有望消除這個問題。 據路透社報道,高盛全資擁有的哥倫比亞國家資源公司(CNR)在哥倫比亞擁有兩個礦場。據消息人士稱,接下來的幾周內CNR將開始安裝傳送帶,預計需要16至18個月完工。這將使CNR的煤炭出口量下降1/3。 該消息人士稱,CNR正在研究繼續出口的可行方案。唯一的方案是付錢給附近的競爭對手Prodeco,借用其已經配備了合法傳送帶的港口進行出口。 2013年,CNR生產大約350萬噸煤炭。僅占到哥倫比亞煤炭全年產量8200萬噸的4%。這意味著他的減產對市場影響很小。 CNR位於El Hatillo的礦場將繼續生產直到礦場倉庫堆滿。消息人士稱,目前尚不明確這個過程大概需要多久。 CNR的另一處礦場,La Francia去年末已經重新開張。但考慮到新法律的幹擾,他目前產量不大。 消息人士稱,如果運營正常,這兩個礦場年產量可達300萬噸。 哥倫比亞最大的礦商Cerrejon沒有受到新法律的影響。Cerrejon自1980年代開業起,就一直使用傳送帶裝煤。他的主要礦場在Cesar省的北部邊境。 2012年,Cerrejon從位於La Guajira的礦場運輸了3270萬噸煤炭到其位於Puerto Bolivar的港口。 新法律意味著哥倫比亞很可能將失去42億比索(合217萬美元)的稅收收入。對於哥倫比亞來說,這是一個沈重的代價。許多哥倫比亞人仍生活在貧困的環境下,這個國家急需更好的基礎設施。
倫比 亞環 禁令 推高 歐洲 煤炭 價格
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“如果大家把創業當玩一樣,這會很麻煩” ——訪美國哥倫比亞國際大學校長李大西

來源: http://www.infzm.com/content/111106

李大西,現任美國國際華人科技工商協會主席、美國利曼兄弟公司助理副總裁、美國凱思比海外創業投資公司董事長、美國東方銀行董事、美國哥倫比亞國際大學校長。 (陳露/圖)

北京時間2015年7月12日,李大西像往常一樣給“中國風險投資之父”、第九屆、十屆全國人大常委會副委員長成思危寫郵件。

除匯報國際華人科技工商協會的工作內容、關心成思危病情之外,遠在美國的李大西還想告訴成自己有“一個重要的決定”,“已經接受了美國哥倫比亞國際大學的聘請,出任他們的校長”。作為新任校長,李大西想把學校建設成為“世界一流的創新創業傑出大學”,郵件最後,李大西問成思危“覺得可不可行”?

但李大西沒有如往常般等到回複。就在郵件發出去的約九小時前,成思危因病在北京逝世,享年80歲。

從美國歸來、送老友成思危最後一程的李大西,在廣州一家酒店接受了南方周末記者的采訪。這位國家首批公派留學生代表、“李政道項目”的受益者,在經歷從研究物理到去華爾街搞金融的轉變之後,落腳到了教育。

李大西從1997年力推創新創業教育,並為之努力至今。2015年6月,美國哥倫比亞國際大學聘請他為校長,正是源於他長期致力創新創業推廣,與這所新型大學的訴求不謀而合。而在中國辦一所職業教育大學,一直是成思危的願望。據李大西介紹,成思危的這一願望一度無限接近實現,但因種種原因,最終未能辦起來。

創新創業教育與職業教育,因此成為李大西與20年老友成思危共同關註、不斷討論深入的話題。

“鼓勵全民創業, 要循序漸進”

1980年,李大西通過“李政道項目”(又稱中美聯合招考赴美國留學物理研究生項目,由李政道教授主持)公派至美國留學。如今,他有多重身份:國際華人科技工商協會主席,全國政協海外特邀代表等,前不久,他又多了一個新的身份:美國哥倫比亞國際大學校長。

1997年,李大西即意識到創新、創業的重要性。此後數十年至今,他一直在鼓勵呼籲。1997年,亞洲金融危機初期,李大西在美國成立了美國國際華人科技工商協會。通過全國人大常委會,協會將在“華爾街聽到的不同聲音”以及應對金融危機的建議,呈交給時任總理朱镕基,建言“做中流砥柱,堅決支持香港”。

南方周末:你對國內的創新、創業環境和現狀了解嗎?如何評價?

李大西:我們國內現在大力提倡創新、創業。我覺得鼓勵創新、創業是必要的,但要循序漸進。

南方周末:是指現在在大力倡導的“全民創業”嗎?

李大西:我跟你說一句實在話,我一直在鼓吹大家來創業,那是因為很多人不願意創業,但並不是所有的人都合適來創業。而且創業的成功率其實是很低的,10%的成功已經是不錯的了。

南方周末:但是2014年你在廣東省實驗學校作講座時鼓勵每個人做“創客”?

李大西:是,這個題目是我定的。

南方周末:坦白說,中國的孩子,普遍被要求好好讀書、好好高考,考個好大學,找個好工作。當有人把創新能力、藝術、科學放到一塊,好像都是生存之外的東西。

李大西:這個肯定是生存之外的東西,我為什麽要跟他們講,就是讓孩子們想一些要緊的東西。你不能光想著高考,對不對?

南方周末:所以你鼓勵大家做創客?

李大西:對,創客是其中一個。你先要明白,創客跟創業不是一碼事。現在中國有些人把創客和創業當成一碼事了。

創客是什麽呢,創客是從美國過來的,maker,就是自己做東西。因為美國是一個很喜歡動手的國家,大家都可以自己做這個,做那個。所以,這個maker,就是鼓勵大家來做東西。有的maker就變成一個創業者,像喬布斯,他就是一個maker,就做計算機,拿去賣,後來又做蘋果手機。所以說,這個創客和創業是有關聯的,有的創客可以變成創業者,但是有的創客只是自己的一個愛好。我是鼓勵他們做創客,不等於一定要去創業。

失敗了,你才會有進步

2015年6月,李大西正式加入了高校教育校長之列。在註重創新、創業的哥倫比亞國際大學擔任校長的李大西,其主要任務就是“找到傑出的老師和傑出的課程”。李大西觀察美國鼓勵創業、創新的學校,學校氛圍和相關課程往往都做得很到位。

李大西在打造自己學校的“金牌教材”,也希望中國高校的相關課程能早日達標。

南方周末:如何看待大學生創業?

李大西:大學生去創業,成功率更低,因為他連工作經驗都沒有。我不是說他不能創業,他們中也有人創業很成功,但對大量的人來說,這會是有一定的問題。

我最擔心的是開始創業的時候,他也不懂得這個錢來得不容易。如果大家把創業當玩一樣,這會很麻煩。有的父母也不是很寬裕,把積蓄拿來給你燒掉的話,也是挺可惜的。你失敗了,你得有失敗很痛苦的感覺,你才會有進步。

南方周末:所以你很看重高校創新、創業教育。在你寫給成思危的郵件中,提到了要尋找優秀的老師,創“金牌教材”。什麽是金牌教材?

李大西:我給你舉個例子,像我們有一個老師,他是教創新課程的,是人工智能方向很有名的專家,跟現在國家工程院的院長周濟是同學,他們還一起出過一本書。這個老師先後在中國、加拿大創業過。只有這樣,他體會到了創業中的酸甜苦辣,通過他講出來的話,就會很心動。所以這些案例會成為我們的金牌教材。

南方周末:那麽在您的觀察里,國內有無這樣的金牌教材?其創新、創業教育做得如何?

李大西:我再給你舉個例子。如南京大學,我知道他們也有一個創新學院。但是,我並沒有看到他們開出一個創新、創業的課,而他們只是辦一些培訓班而已,沒有系統的課,只是培訓班。我覺得其他學校可能也有類似的問題。

南方周末:為什麽那麽在意學校的創新、創業課?

李大西:因為學生在接受系統教育的過程中,會慢慢明白自己合不合適去創業。不一定你聰明你就能夠創業,不是說你很豪爽、很爽快,你就行。比如股票市場的交易員,他們經常在培訓,實際上就是在淘汰。我跟一些有經驗的交易員聊,他們說有的人是教不會的,有的人教了以後就會。這個過程,實際上把這些交易員淘汰掉之後,就剩下比較懂行的人了。

創業人員可能也有點類似。

“大家有點歧視職業學校”

2013年,在紐約創新與合作峰會上,成思危上臺發言,聊到教育的重要性,成思危說,“經濟只能解決今日問題,科技保證明天,只有教育能確保後天”。李大西坐在臺下,頻頻點頭。

教育是他與成思危之間,經常討論的重要議題。成思危做過中華職業教育社的理事長,這是一家成立近百年的機構。李大西知道,老友成思危一直有一個願望,“做一個中國職業教育大學”。

南方周末:你和成思危討論辦一所新的職業教育大學,是源於對現有的大學不滿意嗎?

李大西:我覺得兩個方面吧,一是職業教育不夠廣泛,現在很多一線上的工人,都沒什麽培訓。中國人有個很麻煩的事情,就是很多人是能糊弄個事情就糊弄。像德國人他當個技工,會為自己從事的這個職業而驕傲。他把它看得很重。這個看重有兩個方面,一是在態度上,對技術一絲不茍,精益求精。第二,當做一門技術,會紮紮實實地學。

南方周末:德國的職業教育,歷來被推崇。

李大西:確實,德國的制造業水平和質量為什麽高?我跟德國朋友聊,一個很重要的問題就是德國的工人都經過職業學校的系統培養,職業學校培養兩個東西,一個是敬業精神,一個是實際操作的技能。

南方周末:剛才說中國的職業教育有兩個問題,那麽還有一個是什麽?

李大西:就是大家有點歧視職業學校一樣的,就覺得好像是低等的人才去,你看什麽一本、二本、三本,然後才是職業學校什麽什麽的。我覺得這也是不應該的,很聰明的人也可以去念職業學校,你喜歡就行了。

南方周末:是不是因為現在中國職業學校里上升空間一定程度受限?

李大西:對,我是覺得應該給他這麽一個空間,你不一定想這是另外一回事,但是只要你想,總還有一些機會給你的。一個社會要穩定,就要使得下一層的人有機會往上升,所以咱們一定要提供很多上升的通道。

南方周末:在我國,大家普遍的觀點是以找工作,作為衡量職業教育能否成功的指標。你同意這樣的觀點嗎?

李大西:我覺得不能夠絕對這麽看。一個職業學校如果教出來的學生都找不到工作,當然會有問題,但是你不能單把找工作,也就是把就業率作為唯一的標準,那就不應該。

南方周末:還應該有哪些衡量標準呢?

李大西:教學成果。很重要的就是到了這個崗位以後,這些學生有沒有用,我覺得還是得往後看。你看中國很多事情都是急功近利,這不行的。培養的學生要看到他們對社會有什麽貢獻,就要看在單位里面起何種作用。

所以,我主張用人單位跟職業學校合作。前兩年在學校,最後一年主要由用人單位來派人教。當然不等於說這些人畢業了就全去這個用人單位。而且因為實踐的人來教他,對這個學生去找別的工作也有好處。

本科轉職校“一刀切”,要慎重

近年來,不斷有人大代表提出將三本院校適當轉化為職業學校的提案。褒之者有之;貶之者亦不少。

2014年中國發展高層論壇上,教育部副部長魯昕表示,中國高等教育將發生革命性調整。調整的重點是1999年大學擴招後“專升本”的六百多所地方本科院校,這些地方高校,將逐步轉型做現代職業教育。

南方周末:在職業教育學校的發展中,政府應該怎麽去理清這里面的權責呢?可能它是一個很關鍵的角色。

李大西:應該熱情支持,增強大家的這種光榮感、榮譽感,其實行行出狀元。我跟你說,也是給大家一種縱向、橫向流動的機會。如果你覺得這個東西還可以做得更好,你要轉換,要上升,都要給一個機會。這樣就比較容易做到人盡其才嘛。

南方周末:政府目前給出了“熱情支持”,2014年教育部副部長魯昕提出,要將七百多所地方本科院校,逐步轉型為職業教育學校。

李大西:我說句實在話,我歷來不是很同意這種叫做一刀切的做法。我覺得是可以鼓勵他們去調整、轉向。當生源越來越少的話,他們自己本身就有這個危機感,招不到人。但是我覺得一定一刀切也不行。像在美國,美國教育的精銳的部分是私立學校,你看像哈佛這些名校,其實都是私立的。我們中國私立學校剛開了一點,當然這個水平總的比公立還是差一點。但是你一定給他留下空間往上發展,不要一刀切,我很不主張這個做法。

而且應該培養一些民辦學校,讓他們往上升。你想把它辦成一個一流學校,你還要努力個十年、二十年、三十年,我覺得給人家個機會,給人家個空間。

南方周末:美國的大學的職業教育是怎麽一個樣子?

李大西:美國有比較專門的職業學校,還有社區學校。他們有一個好處,他給你一個流動的空間,這個社區學校過了兩年以後你就要有一個選擇,你就要繼續去做你的工作,或者你還可以升大學,還可以申請,就是職業學校也是類似的。一個很重要的不同就是給你一個很大的空間,讓你可以向上向左向右這樣去發展,中國也應該這樣子。

李大西

1948年出生於廣東普寧,1975年畢業於華南師院。現任美國國際華人科技工商協會主席、美國利曼兄弟公司助理副總裁、美國凱思比海外創業投資公司董事長、美國東方銀行董事、美國哥倫比亞國際大學校長。 1980年,李大西參加中美物理研究生入學考試(CUSPEA)獲全國第二名,考取“李政道項目”,赴美國紐約市立大學學習物理,並取得博士學位。此後,轉入博士後階段的研究,主要研究當時物理理論界最熱門的“超弦理論”。 他於1997年發起組織國際華人科技工商協會(CASB),為科技與工商搭橋,為中國和世界搭橋。1999年,李大西與80名協會的核心成員成立“工商協會海外創業投資公司”,主要目的是為希望回國創業的留學生和科技創業者提供援助。 

如果 大家 創業 當玩 一樣 這會 會很 麻煩 美國 倫比 國際 大學 校長 大西
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李祿談投資 (2010哥倫比亞大學演講摘要)

從六四民運學生領袖到成功投資家,李祿的經歷都幾傳奇性。 這令我想起剛看完的電影中國合伙人, 中國改革開放這時代巨輪改寫了很多人的命運, 而這都是他們事前無法預料及想象得到。
看過李祿在哥倫比亞大學演講後,感覺他的投資功力果然深厚, 難怪芒格和巴菲特比願意給錢他投資。以下是那次演講摘要,有點長,但絕對值得一看 (筆者嘗試把一部份重點做了underline,希望有所幫助).


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Bruce Greenwald: Warren Buffett says that when he retires, there are three people he would like to manage his money. First is Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group, who you will hear from later in the course. Next is Greg Alexander of the Sequoia Fund. Third is Li Lu. He happens to manage all of Charlie Munger’s money. I have a small investment with him and in four years it is up 400%.

[Applause]

Li Lu: Columbia is where my whole life in America started. I could barely speak the language. In Columbia it was where I had a new life. It was really in the Value Investing class where I got my career start. I was really worried about my student loan debt at the time and a friend told me about this class and said I need to see a lecture from Warren Buffett.

What I heard that night changed my life. He said three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

Those were three powerful concepts. I had never viewed the stock market like that. I viewed it negatively as a place made up of manipulators who were lining their own pockets. I embarked on an intensive two year study learning everything about Buffett.

Two years after that I bought my first stock. After I graduated I worked at an investment bank for a year and realized it was a mistake. I tried to start a fund but I didn’t have a track record. The first year I managed money I lost 19%.

Being a value investor means you look at the downside before looking at the upside. Before becoming an investor you need to look at how you can fail at this game. There are all sorts of ways you can fail. You need to examine who you are and see if you could be good at it. If you could ever find something you can do well that you really like — that will be your best investment. You will do better than competitors. If you can do it with intrinsic passion, that really over time will add enormous value to you.

Back to the game of investing. This concept of margin of safety is an essential concept to be a good investor. The future is unpredictable, you will always be dealt surprises, some positive most negative. You need to build in a level of safety so that whatever happens, you will not get crushed. If you can really successfully know what you are getting into, you can pretty much navigate.

Most people are troubled by what they don’t know. The world is divided by those who know and those who don’t know. If you really know — you will not pull triggers like Wall St. traders. If you are truly intellectually honest, you would not do anything.

This class teaches you to know what you are getting into, especially accepting what things you don’t know. The game of investment is really continuous learning. Everything affects an investment, it constantly changes. You are not investing in the past but the accumulative cash flow of the future. You have to want to find a certain set up where you can know something that most people don’t know. There are plenty of things I don’t know but they don’t factor into the purchase because I am using a huge margin of safety.

Buying a dollar at 50 cents. So if things turn against you, you will be okay. That is not easy. This business is brutally competitive. It is so impossible to know everything and know exactly what is going to happen to a business from now till the end that you really have to accept that what you don’t know.

Finding an edge really only comes from a right frame of mind and years of continuous study. But when you find those insights along the road of study, you need to have the guts and courage to back up the truck and ignore the opinions of everyone else. To be a better investor, you have to stand on your own. You just can’t copy other people’s insights. Sooner or later, the position turns against you. If you don’t have any insights into the business, when it goes from $100 to $50 you aren’t going to know if it will back to $100 or $200.

So this is really difficult, but on the other hand, the rewards are huge. Warren says that if you only come up with 10 good investments in your 40 year career, you will be extraordinarily rich. That’s really what it is. This shows how different value investing is than any other subject.

So how do you really understand and gain that great insight? Pick one business. Any business. And truly understand it. I tell my interns to work through this exercise – imagine a distant relative passes away and you find out that you have inherited 100% of a business they owned. What are you going to do about it? That is the mentality to take when looking at any business. I strongly encourage you to start and understand 1 business, inside out. That is better than any training possible. It does not have to be a great business, it could be any business.

You need to be able to get a feel for how you would do as a 100% owner. If you can do that, you will have a tremendous leg up against the competition. Most people don’t take that first concept correctly and it is quite sad. People view it as a piece of paper and just trade because it is easy to trade. But if it was a business you inherited, you would not be trading. You would really seek out knowledge on how it should be run, how it works. If you start with that, you will eventually know how much that business is worth.

When I started in the business in 1997, it was in the middle of the Asian Financial Crisis. A few years later there was the Internet bubble. A couple years ago was the Great Crash of 2007 – 2008. They are billed as once in a century disasters but happen every few years. Every time it goes against you, your net worth or value of your investments might go down 50%. This is really where that insight and temperament comes in.

In a sense, you have to have a certain confidence in your own judgement and not be swayed by other people’s views.It is not easy. But that is life. It is just a given. It happens to everyone. Berkshire had at least 3 times when the stock went down 50%. It happened to Carnegie. It happened to Rockefeller. It happens to everyone. If you really made a mistake, it would not stop at 50% but go to 0.

This happens to even mighty companies. Look at the top 50 companies in America every 10 years. By the time 20-40 years go by, 2/3rds of them will be gone. By the time it goes to 100 years, there might be only a couple left. It’s just the way it is. Look at what happened to the once mighty General Motors. So thats why I’m saying is, investing is a continuous learning process because your investments are constantly changing

So for those of you that have curiosity and the temperament, this game couldn’t be better. Capitalism rewards people who are talented at capital allocator. So if you have the aptitude and temperament, it is the great game. If you don’t have that then I urge you not to go and become a nuisance. That is really what Wall Street did, they don’t really create anything they just move money around.

Letting the financial industry get too big is bad for the economy, it is just as bad as getting addicted to casinos, drugs, and alcohol. None of them are really useful, they just transfer wealth. That is what I think happened on Wall Street over the last several decades. So avoid being harmful.

With that I am open to questions.

Q: Mohnish Pabrai recently spoke about his reluctance about investing in China due to the multiple accounting books / the possibility of fraud. How do you deal with this given your own investments in China?

Li Lu: Well, you know I think he is right. Every thing has an exception though. Just because a next door neighbor is a fraud doesn’t mean you are. That is one question to ask— whether you can trust the accounting and people running the business. That can have a huge impact on the business. I suggest you spend a lot of time looking at these factors, especially if you are investing for the long haul.

Q: Why did you decide to go into venture capital? How is that different than your other investing?

Li Lu: I always had this bent that I want to build a real business. I started a venture and it was really a lot of fun. Overall, it is a tougher game than simply investing in securities because you have to evolve to the day to day changes in operations and it is just not as easy to build great businesses. Every generation has a handful of great businesses that come from no where and come to dominate their fields.

It is much more rewarding as an investor to pick those. Also, you are more likely to find managers much more capable than yourself. Overall, I learned a lot. I learned a lot in how businesses succeed and how businesses fail. It really was a lot of fun. I probably carried it too far — I eventually ran one of the businesses and it was of course a mistake.

Q: I read that when you look at an industry, you look at the most miserable failures of that industry to see whether you will invest in it. Can you talk a bit about that?

Li Lu: It goes back to understanding the business. Once you have that understanding you can extend it to understanding an industry. A certain industry might have characteristics that make it different than others. In certain industries you might have better prospects than others. Find the best of the players in the industry and the worst players.

And see how they perform over time. And if the worst players perform reasonably well relative to the great players — that tells you something about the characteristics about the industry. That is not always the case but it is often the case. Certain industries are better than others.

So if you can understand a business inside out you can then eventually extend that to understanding an industry. If you can get that insight, it is enormously beneficial. If you can then concentrate that on a business with superior economics in an industry with superior economics with good management and you get them at the right price — the chances are that you can stay for a very long time.

Q: Did you have any specific example?

Li Lu: I have studied many over the years. As I have said, don’t copy other people’s insights because it doesn’t work. Automobiles are amazing. If you look at the early days it started with several players and concentrated with just a few players that became enormously profitable. Then they became miserable. You then see how the life cycle turns with new automakers in China and India. Everything has a reason.

If you want a good idea — look at General Motors from the early days, look every 5 years and see how the performance metrics change. The Graham and Dodd Center should collect all the data and perform some kind of commentary on it.

Bruce Greenwald:Do you want me to give you the answer to that? In the 1960s, their return on capital was 46%. In the 1970s their return on capital was 28%. In the 1980s it was 9% in the 1990s it was 6%. You want to guess how negative it is now?

Li Lu: So that is really fascinating. If you have that data, the amount of insight that would yield would be astonishing. So instead of just accepting the conventional wisdom that the auto business is bad — that is just not true. Or if you say well those guys just unbelievable money machines — that is not true either. So if you can really examine those statistics and understand it that will give you an advantage for analyzing new situations like in China and India. That is really what turns me on. Understanding this gives you a tremendous leg up.

Q: I wanted to ask you about BYD. I heard that you thought it was important for them to introduce a model to the US and wanted to know why you thought that.

Li Lu: That might be a better question to ask the BYD chairman than myself. Well, If you are just talking about electric vehicles, you know the key — the heart and soul of the electric vehicle age the heart is the battery. There is the battery, electric motor, and the electric control control panel. The electric motor has been there for 100 years, control system is software that can be improved over time.

The battery is really where you get the biggest appreciation and is what determines the value of the electric vehicle. 100 years before the Model-T was introduced, the competition between electric vehicles and gasoline was not nearly as optimistic. Up and till then, 1/3rd of cars being produced were electric. It wasn’t until Rockefeller got oil extracted easily enough that it worked. Henry Ford was able to make the internal combustion work even though it wasted 85% of the energy. He was able to build the engine and produce automobiles that were cheap enough for people to buy and it took off. That is where you find the real winners.

Now, years later, we know that the way that oil is burned contributes to global warming. If it continues, the planet might still be here but all the human beings might not. Human beings have only been on the planet for a tiny bit of the earth’s history. So there are all sorts of good reasons for electric cars. Battery development has advanced so much that it is now comparable to the price and performance of traditional cars. So now with the help of companies like BYD, the balance is about to tilt towards where performance and price are getting to the level that makes them a desirable alternative. It will be desirable everywhere. Eventually, if you have a car that does all that, it will be sold everywhere.

Q: What about BYD versus others in the industry?

Li Lu: The market will determine that.

Q: Yeah – but why BYD versus others?

Li Lu: Well because we also studied all those other guys. We will see when the winner emerges whether we are right or wrong.

Q: Right – but what did you look at to reach that view?

Li Lu: There are a lot of people who have worked over 100 years making great cars. The technology for building a traditional car has been refined enough to where it can be learned in a short period. The place we are still seeing a curve of continuous rapid improvement is with the batteries for cars.

Whoever is leading the charge will have a major advantage. There is really only one company that is a leader in battery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing. There is only one company. To put this together you need a Ford to put that together. So far those two elements need to be put together. It is not an easy process.

Q: So you went to BYD in 2005 and then you brought Berkshire as well. I saw that you sold a small amount of your BYD position at the end of last year. Was it just rebalancing? Can I just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

Li Lu: Actually I started my BYD position in 2002. I sold a small amount of shares because an investor of mine had an emergency redemption.

Q: We read your profile online. I had a question –do you have any problems when trying to invest in China?

Li Lu: Yeah I do have some difficulty. I did not really see a factory plant at BYD until the end of 2008. I really did not have a better understanding till then. That really causes you to question what it is before you make an investment. With investing, you have to work with imperfect information because you are buying a piece of the future. I did not really get a chance to get more information because the problem in Asia till much later but it did not stop me from making my investment decision.

So there is a point, where if you have enough margin of safety– that is why I kept coming back to the elementary concept of margin of safety– you can allow much more uncertainty and unknowns. So the answer of the question is does that stop you from making the investment? No.

Q: So I did some research on lithium ion batteries, and I saw that BYD has a manufacturing advantage with consumer batteries. But I saw that automobile batteries are much more complex. I did not think that the idea of a good consumer battery manufacturer + an automobile maker made much sense. So when Buffett looked at the stock maybe it was a better deal but today it is this dream of vehicles that is really priced in. It does not feel like a good value investor stock. So why would you own it today?

Li Lu: Well that is interesting. One of the most fascinating things about being an investor is that surprises are part of the game. When you get into situations like BYD, you see lots of good surprises. Chuanfu and his team have this fabulous culture, everything people thought they knew turned out to be a few years late. He got into battery manufacturing in that particular way because he really had no other option. He had no money, he only had $300,000 in venture capital funding before IPO and that was it.

He raised money in an IPO and Buffett gave him $200M, now they have 160,000 employees. $6-7B in revenues, $500M in net profit. It is amazing. So he has this ability to adapt in a competitive environment. He has demonstrated that ability again again and again. The way he does automation is far cheaper than anyone else and more reliable.

He continues to surprise me with his ingenuity, to figure out ways to do something better than everyone else. What he is currently doing is very different than what everyone else has done. At the end of the day, you might look at what he has done.

So how do you look at it as an investor with imperfect information? Well I suggest you look at what he has accomplished. 8 years ago I had no idea they would go into the automobile or laptop or cellphone battery business. So that demonstrates how he is. This investment is not easy to understand because it is changing so fast, at such a large scale. An almost unheard of speed. Their manufacturing capabilities will double soon.

This year they will hire 10,000 college graduates, 8 or 9 thousand engineers. The scale is almost unparalleled. So this is why the study of history, of all the great corporations will give you a good insight in seeing what will happen with BYD. I suggested that we start with GM and analyze its performance every 5 years for 100 years to understand at least one aspect of BYD’s business.

Q: One investor came in and said talking to management is a waste of time. They will say what you want them to say. Obviously it sounds like you don’t agree with that. What do you think? Will you pay a premium for a business with a moat?

Li Lu: There is no general rule. The key in investing is to know what you know and know what you don’t know. You can know about management teams without meeting with them. Every situation is slightly different. So I come back to the point that if you know enough on other things that there is enough margin of safety. Even if you meet with management, you may not learn something. Obviously, actions speak louder.

You want to see what they have done. Everything being equal, the more you know about management, the more honest and upfront they are, the more motive they have, the better the situation is and the deeper the discount. You have to analyze it all. The key to analyzing it is you have to ask: do I really know what I think I know, do I really know what I don’t know? If you can’t answer that question, chances are you are gambling.

Q: What kind of preparation do you do before meeting a management team?

Li Lu: I don’t really have a set method. Because I usually am just curious about the business and don’t know a lot. So you are prepared and not prepared. If you are really curious, you want to learn more and study it more. When working at a hedge fund or mutual fund, you are expected to learn a business in one week. You can’t truly understand everything about a business in one week.

It took me 10 years and I am still learning new things about BYD. It is a continuous learning process. You could spend a lifetime studying a business or industry, but in a few seconds I can tell you whether or not I like it. You want to build knowledge by continually learning. There is not set preparation.

Q: Recently, Jim Chanos gave us his thesis on the China Syndrome with there possibly being a bubble.

Li Lu: Well, it is too big of a question for me. I don’t know

Q: 20 years ago you said you challenged conventional wisdom in China. Out of curiosity, in terms of value investing what do you challenge in the conventional wisdom?

Li Lu: Well, the fundamental philosophy of value investing is very sound. Its basically the three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

That is really an intelligent approach. So therefore any intelligent investing is really value investing. There is a certain level of intellectual honesty. If you have all that insight going into analyzing businesses I don’t have any arguments with it.

Q: What is your point of view on long / short positions in value investing?

Li Lu: The most profitable kind of investing is long term investing. You want to allow the time that it might take because you don’t know when the market will catch on. If you can find a business with good management with good industry fundamentals blowing it forward, you have a good opportunity and you can save money on taxes.


A short cannot be a fundamentally long term position. In the long game, the upside is unlimited. Your downside is 100%. In shorting it is opposite. Shorting is also essentially borrowing, so you need money and time on your side. If time is not on your side, you can be right but lose all your money.

The best kind of short usually has some kind of fraud. In those situations, management is determined to keep the fraud. Look at Bernie Madoff, 20 years time. You cannot afford to borrow money for 20 years. So shorting is a short term game. When those positions go against you, there is huge leverage that can utterly crush you.

In theory, long / short is okay, but if you are trading all the time you need to be in tune with all the things moving the market. None of them might be fundamental to the actual business. So you spend all your time chasing noise than studying a long term situation. If you cannot concentrate on things in the long term, and spend all your time thinking about the short term, you will not be able to develop the kinds of insights necessary to identify great investments.

From time to time, you will lose some money on paper. But it is just part of the game. This is why I closed long / short. You know I went through three bubbles. The Asian Financial Crisis, the Internet Bubble, and this most recent financial crisis. The biggest mistake I made is not being able to pick up undervalued companies where I had a unique insight but was tied up with this whole long / short thing. The money I left on the table is still adding up. I am still paying for those mistakes.

Q: In a bull market environment, how do you re-evaluate your thesis?

Li Lu: I don’t ever want to profit from a bubble. Soros does that, that is just not my game. I don’t profess any ability to understand how long a crowd will buy into a bubble. I invest in things that appear to be compelling values that continues. So that is why this game is a continuous learning process – because everything affecting the investment is constantly changing. Including the price. Including the prospects and elements of business success. You really do want to never stop learning. This game looks to be easy but it is not easy.


Q: Given your focus on international investments, how do you think about diversifying your investments regionally?

Li Lu: First of all, I did not really specialize in international investments. I started off doing most of my investments in the US and Canada. In recent years, I just find better bargains outside of it. One of the great things about being an investor is you can look anywhere and find great pockets of opportunities. You cannot do that as a venture capitalist as I experienced myself. So you can look anywhere for opportunities.

I do not take a regional approach to diversification. I have views towards certain countries and currencies, but it is not the driving force for a potential investment. If you have your fundamental things right, if you happen to have macro economic factors behind you, you can run a great wave.

Q: How is your investment style different today than when you started the fund?

Li Lu: A lot of things have changed. One bonus about this profession is you get better over time. Most professions, as you get older, you get out of the game. Take the example of competitive sports. If you are a figure skater or gymnast, after your teenage years you are out of the game. With investing, if you are doing it the right way, you get better over time. Your knowledge accumulates exponentially. When I look back at everything I have done, I would have done it all slightly differently, but that is because I am better at it today.


So if you approach it in a fundamentally sound way, as you mature, you become better and better. That process and progression is like compounding money. In fact, you can compound knowledge faster than money. If you truly love this game, I would suggest that you don’t take short cuts. It might take longer but it is more rewarding.

Q: What is the difference between being a top political criminal in China versus a hedge fund manager today (referring to the ire directed at Wall Street)?

Li Lu: I don’t consider myself a criminal. I don’t think China considers me a criminal. What I think we are doing today with our investment in BYD in China is really helping China march towards a modern era of prosperity. BYD is providing a solution to both China and the US, to migrate from the past to a way that gets us out of the unsustainable carbon age that we live in. Global warming is a vital concern to every human being, so China is providing a great contribution to everybody with BYD.


America has had a great history of invention and here is a great company in China that is about to make a major contribution to human civilization with cheap electric vehicles and solar power.
Ultimately we will have to get our energy from the sun. Most of the energy, even fossil fuels (plants that die and then go into the ground), all originally come from the sun. So if you can figure out a way to take energy from the sun and power vehicles, while using batteries to store it, inexpensively — will really make renewable energy power everything.

The combination of those things holds the key to the future of industrial civilization that we are about to embark on. We didn’t set out with BYD with this in mind, it just happened that way. With great companies, it only looks logical in retrospect. Think about how Bill Gates started Microsoft. I don’t think he knew up front that he would take the entire market — at that time it did not exist. It is the same way with our investment in BYD. Ultimately, I think finding an inexpensive way to store energy that we harness from the sun will be a huge contribution for both China and the US, but more broadly our entire civilization.

 
李祿 祿談 投資 2010 倫比 亞大 演講 摘要
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哥倫比亞新法規:全民都被默認為器官捐獻者

據新華社10日報道,哥倫比亞總統桑托斯日前批準了一項有關國民捐獻器官的新法規,規定所有哥倫比亞公民都被默認為器官捐獻者,除非公民在生前表達過不願捐獻器官的意願。

這項法案的提出者、哥倫比亞國會議員拉臘說,這是一項具有人文關懷的法案,因為目前在哥倫比亞等待器官移植的患者越來越多。

新法規取消了死者家屬決定是否捐獻死者器官的權力,擴大了捐獻器官的來源,有望挽救更多患者的生命。

根據哥倫比亞國家器官移植基金會的統計數據,去年哥倫比亞共有2256名患者需要接受器官移植,而器官捐獻者只有195人,僅有2%的人成功移植。

當地醫學專家稱,每位捐獻者提供的器官組織可以挽救7到10名患者生命,捐獻者的各個組織可以讓55人受益。

各國器官捐獻政策大不同

歐盟成員國中大約一半的國家,包括英國、荷蘭、德國和瑞典等,對捐獻器官采取的政策都是“選擇參加”,即需明確表示死後願意捐獻器官,而在比利時和西班牙等國采取的政策則是“選擇退出”,即必須明確拒絕捐獻器官,否則等同於同意捐獻。

中國的器官捐獻在制度層面,尚未建立一套完整法律體系。2010年,中國開始實施公民自願捐獻器官試點,公民自願捐獻器官者6年間增長120倍。僅2015年一年,公民捐獻人數已達2766例,大器官捐獻數達7758個,包括親體捐獻在內的移植手術量達10057例,自願捐獻器官數量已躍居亞洲第一,成為世界上建立自願捐獻體系發展最快的國家。

倫比 亞新 法規 全民 都被 被默 認為 器官 捐獻者 捐獻
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哥倫比亞總統桑托斯獲得諾貝爾和平獎

挪威諾貝爾委員會宣布,將2016年諾貝爾和平獎授予哥倫比亞總統胡安·曼努埃爾·桑托斯,以表彰他對結束哥倫比亞超過50年的內戰所作出的貢獻。

2014年6月15日,在哥倫比亞首都波哥大,桑托斯(右)慶祝自己成功連任。(圖:新華社)

桑托斯1951年8月10日出生於波哥大,畢業於卡塔赫納海軍學院,後在英國倫敦經濟學院和美國哈佛大學攻讀經濟學。1972年,他開始步入政壇,1991年任對外貿易部長,2000年任財政和公共信貸部長。2003年桑托斯被自由黨提名為波哥大市市長候選人,但沒有當選。

2004年桑托斯離開自由黨轉而支持總統烏里韋。2005年在烏里韋的支持下,桑托斯創建了執政黨之一的哥倫比亞民族團結社會黨。2006年6月,他出任國防部長。為了參加2010年舉行的哥倫比亞總統選舉,桑托斯於2009年5月向烏里韋遞交了辭呈。

在2010年6月20日哥倫比亞舉行的總統選舉第二輪投票中,作為民族團結社會黨候選人的桑托斯以較大優勢擊敗綠黨候選人安塔納斯·莫茨庫斯,順利當選為哥倫比亞新一任總統。2014年,桑托斯成功獲得連任,其第二任任期將持續到2018年。

終結52年內戰 桑托斯與叛軍簽署和平協議

據外媒報道,哥倫比亞總統桑托斯與該國最大叛軍組織“哥倫比亞革命武裝力量”(FARC,簡稱哥武)領導人希門尼斯,於當地時間9月26日簽署一項歷史性和平協議,以終結長達52年的內戰。

受邀嘉賓包括聯合國秘書長潘基文、美國國務卿克里以及古巴總統勞爾·卡斯特羅等拉丁美洲國家領導人。

哥倫比亞總統桑托斯與“哥武”領導人在儀式上握手(圖:法新社)

據新華社8月25日報道,興起於上世紀60年代的“哥武”是哥倫比亞最大的反政府武裝遊擊隊,該國半個多世紀的武裝沖突已造成逾22萬人死亡,數百萬人流離失所。

1984至2002年間,哥政府曾與“哥武”舉行過兩次和談,但都以失敗告終。2012年,在古巴和挪威作為擔保國、委內瑞拉和智利作為觀察國的斡旋下,雙方再次進行和平談判並於2015年8月25日在古巴首都哈瓦那宣布達成全面和平協議。

公投結果反對和平協議 桑托斯表示自己不會放棄

據路透社報道,和平協議需經哥倫比亞人民公投後才能生效。然而,在10月2日舉行的公投中,反對派以50.23%的微弱優勢超過了支持和平協議的陣營。

此前,總統桑托斯曾表示,如果公投結果反對和平協議,那這會給哥倫比亞帶來“災難性”後果,該國也有可能重新進入戰爭狀態。

美聯社報道稱,桑托斯在公投後發表電視講話,表示自己不會放棄,將會繼續尋求和平,請求人民保持平靜。他已要求談判人員於3日回到古巴,與“哥武”領導人進行協商。

桑托斯在講話中引用中國諺語稱,應在任何情況下尋找機遇。他認為,這次公投也可以被視為一個機遇,因為它顯示出了哥倫比亞國內的政治現實。

“哥武”領導人希門尼斯也在古巴首都哈瓦那表示,“哥武”對公投結果表示遺憾,並譴責那些在哥倫比亞人民思想中播撒仇恨與複仇的人。他表示,“哥武”仍然致力於和平。過去一周,“哥武”領導人曾兩次前往深受內戰重創的地區進行道歉,與當地社區討論對屠殺受害者的賠償事宜。

倫比 總統 桑托斯 桑托 獲得 諾貝爾 諾貝 和平獎 和平
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哥倫比亞警方:客機墜毀事故現場發現5名幸存者

當地時間11月28日晚,一架載有包括巴西沙佩科恩斯足球俱樂部隊員在內的81人的客機在哥倫比亞麥德林市國際機場附近失事。據新華社報道,當地官方的最新消息稱,救援人員在事故現場發現5名幸存者,幸存者已被送往醫院接受治療。

經歷墜機事故的巴西沙佩科恩斯足球俱樂部球員Alan Luciano Ruschel接受搶救(圖:中新網)

據報道,麥德林國際機場在其推特賬戶上發布消息說,失事飛機載有72名乘客和9名機組成員。客機原定飛往安蒂奧基亞省省會麥德林的何塞·瑪麗亞·科爾多瓦國際機場,但飛行至拉塞哈市附近時與機場失去聯系。

安蒂奧基亞省救災負責人帕羅迪表示,失事客機屬於玻利維亞拉米亞航空公司,是從玻利維亞起飛的。該航班曾於當地時間28日22時(北京時間29日11時)左右,向機場航空塔臺發出警報,稱飛機出現了電路故障。

哥倫比亞麥德林國際機場附近的墜毀客機殘片(圖:新華社)

據哥倫比亞民航局的信息顯示,72名乘客中22人是巴西足球隊隊員,28人是足球隊技術、管理人員,22人為媒體記者。

墜機現場拍攝的巴西足球甲級聯賽球隊沙佩科恩斯的標誌(圖:新華社)

據報道,該球隊原計劃前往麥德林市參加30日舉行的南美杯決賽,獲悉飛機失事的消息後,南美洲足球協會隨即宣布暫停所有賽事活動。

沙佩科恩斯足球隊原定於本周三參加南美杯決賽

倫比 警方 客機 墜毀 事故 現場 發現 名幸 幸存 存者
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一載有巴西球員的飛機在哥倫比亞墜毀,機上載有72名乘客

據法新社29日報道,一架載有巴西足球隊員的飛機在哥倫比亞城市麥德林附近墜毀,機上有72名乘客和9名機組人員。

據最新的消息報道,目前哥倫比亞醫院已經接收到10名生還者。

哥倫比亞當局表示,飛機墜機事故原因可能是缺乏燃料。

國際在線報道稱,目前,救援組已經趕到墜毀現場,進行救援。但由於惡劣的天氣,空中救援工作受阻,只能在陸地上進行。

飛機在哥倫比亞城市麥德林附近墜毀

哥倫比亞救援隊趕到現場

機場方面表示,該飛機從玻利維亞起飛,載有巴西足球甲級聯賽沙佩科恩斯球隊。

這支球隊原定於周三在麥德林與麥德林球隊Atletico Nacional進行南美俱樂部杯的決賽。

飛機飛行路線

 

載有 巴西 球員 飛機 在哥 倫比 墜毀 機上 72 乘客
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哥倫比亞3,177孕婦染寨卡

1 : GS(14)@2016-02-09 03:34:54

寨卡疫情繼續在美洲蔓延,哥倫比亞感染寨卡病毒的病例(圖)已增至25,645個,當中孕婦感染人數增至3,177人。



首宗孕婦染病墮胎

各省疫情以在毗鄰委內瑞拉的北桑坦德省最嚴重,有近5,000宗個案,受感染孕婦人數亦最多,佔了總數31%。雖然寨卡或跟初生嬰兒患小頭症有關,但當地至今未有小頭症個案。當地容許感染寨卡的孕婦墮胎,傳媒上周五報道了當地首宗因為寨卡病毒感染的墮胎個案。總統桑托斯(Juan Manuel Santos)前日在全國電視講話中指出,以現有病毒蔓延趨勢推斷,該國最終會有多達60萬宗病例,以及1,000宗疑與寨卡有關的罕有神經系統問題──吉巴氏綜合症。他指政府會致力在全國滅蚊,並會協助各家庭清理積水,以防蚊子滋生。路透社





來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20160208/19483973
倫比 177 孕婦 染寨 寨卡
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哥倫比亞與革命軍終簽和議

1 : GS(14)@2016-09-28 05:04:20

哥倫比亞政府與左翼游擊隊「哥倫比亞革命軍」(FARC)的血腥衝突禍延半個世紀,雙方經過四年談判後,前日終於簽訂和議,結束美洲最後的大型武裝衝突。總統桑托斯(Juan Manuel Santos)與FARC領袖隆多尼奧(Rodrigo Londono)在2,500名政要及嘉賓見證下,手執以子彈殼製成的筆桿簽署長達297頁的和議。桑托斯把衣領上戴了多年、象徵和平的白鴿襟章卸下,親手贈予昔日的死敵隆多尼奧,後者隨即掛恤衫上。觀眾大都特意穿上白衣,聚成一片和睦的人海參與這歷史時刻,不少人感動落淚。


半世紀衝突26萬死

隆多尼奧讚揚桑托斯是「勇氣可嘉的夥伴」,承諾FARC不走回頭路,將和平地走入政治,並「為我們來過去造成的痛苦致歉」。桑托斯表示歡迎FARC融入民主。哥倫比亞周日將舉行公投決定是否接受和議,若如民調所料般獲通過,FARC約7,000名成員將解甲釋兵,由聯合國觀察員在半年內逐步收繳他們的武裝。哥倫比亞政府估計,多年的衝突共導致26萬人死亡、4.5萬人失蹤及690萬人流離失所。美聯社/法新社




來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20160928/19784410
倫比 亞與 革命軍 革命 終簽 和議
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「堅定致力結束國家逾50年內戰」哥倫比亞總統奪和平獎

1 : GS(14)@2016-10-10 00:43:40

■桑托斯Juan Manuel Santos



【和平獎】哥倫比亞和平協議剛在周日公投意外被否決,令外界還以為相關人士角逐今年諾貝爾和平獎無望,豈料挪威諾貝爾委員會昨天宣佈頒獎給哥倫比亞總統桑托斯(Juan Manuel Santos),表揚他「堅定致力結束該國逾50年的內戰」,希望為有功虧一簣之危的哥倫比亞和平進程重新上路加把勁。

挪威諾貝爾委員會指1964年開打的哥倫比亞衝突,是現代其中一場最長、也是美洲現時碩果僅存的武裝衝突,至少令22萬人死、近600萬人流離失所。桑托斯四年前啟動跟左翼游擊隊「哥倫比亞革命武裝力量」(FARC)和談,上月達成和議,但被指對叛軍太寬容,尤其是保證他們棄械後可組黨、獲國會議席,和議在公投以不足0.5個百分點得票率之差被否決。



和議拉倒仍遵守停火

委員會承認公投結果令哥國「確實有和平進程中止、衝突死灰復燃之危」,但桑托斯和FARC領袖隆多尼奧(Rodrigo Londono)等各方仍遵守停火協議。委員會又強調民眾在公投並非反對追求和平,只是反對那份和議,而桑托斯廣邀各方參與深化和平進程的全國對話,是連反和議人士都歡迎。和議雖被拉倒,但桑托斯已令這場血腥衝突「顯著地接近和平解決」,包括為驗證FARC解除武裝與全國和解打好基礎,在全國和解與為受害者討回公道之間取得平衡不易,而這次和平進程中有受害者代表參與,更令外界留下深刻印象。雖然和平獎只頒給桑托斯一人,委委員會強調這個獎亦是向參與哥國和平進程各方、哥國人民和衝突受害者致敬,希望「鼓勵所有爭取哥倫比亞和平、和解與公義的人」,鼓勵聲言為和平努力至在任最後一日的桑托斯,在這吃力的工作取得成功,並指只有和平與和解開花結果,哥國才能有效應對除貧、消除社會不公義和毒品罪惡等重大挑戰。挪威諾貝爾委員會主席菲弗被記者問為何只有桑托斯得獎時,指他踏出歷史性第一步,並以「政府領袖身份全身投入,決心取得成果」,但以委員會「一直不評論沒得獎人士」為由避談隆多尼奧是否也應獲獎。有諾貝爾獎史家指想不出和議只得一方得獎的先例,認為委員會為免刺激在公投反和議一派,在最後一刻踢FARC出局。



獎項獻給衝突受害人

外界認為全由挪威人組成的評審,這次決定也暗撐挪威在和談的角色。哥國和談是由挪威和古巴作擔保國,公開階段談判亦是在奧斯陸展開。和平獎按諾貝爾遺囑由挪威諾貝爾委員會管理。桑托斯對獲獎表示感激,稱他將以「哥倫比亞人民名義」接受這個獎,並獻給衝突受害人,又指哥國已「非常非常接近和平」,得獎對哥國追求和平有「很大刺激」作用。他將得800萬瑞典克朗(718萬港元)獎金。隆多尼奧則表示他唯一想要的「獎」,是哥國「和平得來有公義,沒有民兵當道,沒有報復和謊言」。路透社/法新社/美聯社




來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20161008/19794586
堅定 致力 結束 國家 50 年內 倫比 總統 和平獎 和平
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哥倫比亞月底與第二大叛軍和談

1 : GS(14)@2016-10-12 07:52:28

哥倫比亞總統桑托斯上周獲頒諾貝爾和平獎後,國內和平進程再現曙光。政府前日宣佈,本月27日與第二大左翼叛軍組織「國家解放軍」(ELN)於厄瓜多爾首都基多展開和談。桑托斯指,政府經過近3年努力終尋求到和談機會,期望長久的和平即將到來。雙方今年3月同意和談,在委內瑞拉政府斡旋下敲定細節,委內瑞拉外交部讚揚雙方展示誠意。
ELN同樣釋出善意。紅十字國際委員會證實,ELN釋放了一名平民人質,是兩周內釋放的第3名人質。現時ELN仍挾持前國會議員桑切斯。至於哥國政府與最大叛軍組織「哥倫比亞革命武裝力量」(FARC)的和議,在月初公投被否決後,主要反對者、前總統烏里韋前日提出和議新條件,要求FARC領袖失去自由至少5年並禁止參選,但外界一般相信FARC不會接受。法新社/路透社




來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20161012/19798451
倫比 月底 與第 二大 叛軍 和談
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哥倫比亞與叛軍達成新和議

1 : GS(14)@2016-11-16 05:10:10

哥倫比亞政府在總統桑托斯(圖)獲諾貝爾和平獎加持下,前天宣佈與左翼游擊隊「哥倫比亞革命武裝力量」(FARC)達成新和平協議,取代上月初在公投爆冷被否決的原和議,尋求結束逾半世紀內戰,雙方在聲明稱「和平不能再等了」。原和議被批評對FARC太寬厚,新協議仍保留FARC解除武裝後在國會有10個議席等主要條款,但稱已吸納各界意見,修改細節,如規定觸犯戰爭罪行隊員縱不用坐牢,自由也受限制;為此作裁決的特別和平法院取消加入外國裁判官,以及加入要FARC列出資產清單供賠償給內戰受害者等。


不辦公投 交國會通過

英國廣播公司指預計政府不再為新和議辦公投,只交國會通過。反對原和議的前總統烏里韋,據指亦不滿新和議,要求落實前先交他們和受害者研究,提出進一步修改建議。桑托斯指新和議大有改進,將建立「更深入和廣泛的和平」。桑托斯之前受訪時指出,他在原和議被否決後隨即獲得諾貝爾頒發和平獎,如「上天恩賜」,在關鍵時刻保持和平動力,又說原和議被公投否決,事後看來是好事,比在爭議中僅獲通過好。法新社/美聯社




來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20161114/19833011
倫比 亞與 叛軍 達成 新和
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哥倫比亞通過與左翼游擊隊和議

1 : GS(14)@2016-12-03 05:11:21

經長達52年的衝突、4年多的談判,哥倫比亞國會前晚終於通過與左翼游擊隊「哥倫比亞革命武裝力量」(FARC)的和議,結束拉丁美洲為時最久的武裝衝突。


約需150日解除武裝

根據該份長達310頁的協議,FARC有約150日時間逐步解除武裝並成立新政黨,他們亦須協助對抗販毒和農村發展。比起較早前遭公投否決的方案,今次協議要求FARC用其資產賠償受害者、被定罪的FARC成員要面對較嚴厲的懲罰,但是游擊隊領袖仍然毋須入獄,參政的條件亦未有收緊。反對派領袖、前總統烏里韋批評,和平與公義之間必須有平衡,但這份協議之中只看到免罪,他和盟友在表決前離場抗議。最終眾議院以130比0通過方案,參議院較早前亦以75比0通過協議。推動今次協議、獲頒本年度諾貝爾和平獎的總統桑托斯,早前已表示不會有新的公投。他形容哥倫比亞開創了「新紀元」,又指FARC要在5日內按照協議內容遷移、30日內開始解除武裝。不過FARC已表明,國會須先通過特赦2,000名在囚成員,才會正式解除武裝。路透社/美聯社




來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20161202/19852325
倫比 亞通 過與 左翼 遊擊 擊隊 和議
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哥倫比亞總統領和平獎

1 : GS(14)@2016-12-11 14:12:37

【諾獎頒獎禮2016】本屆諾貝爾獎頒獎禮昨日在瑞典和挪威舉行,率先領獎的是和平獎得主、哥倫比亞總統桑托斯,他憑促成政府與最大反對派武裝「哥倫比亞革命武裝力量」(FARC)達成和議、結束長達50年內戰獲此殊榮。桑托斯形容和議是「希望之光」,冀望哥國的例子可為敍利亞、也門、南蘇丹等戰亂國仿效。


卜戴倫缺席 僅送謝辭

哥國和議本遭公投否決,但在和平獎宣佈頒給桑托斯後再接再厲,上月終由國會通過修訂和議。他指獎項是「天賜之禮」,要與哥國全民分享,「有了這張協議,我們就敢說全個美洲由阿拉斯加至巴塔哥尼亞都是和平的」。出席挪威奧斯陸的和平獎頒獎禮,還包括10名內戰受害者,卻欠和議另一推動者、FARC領袖隆多尼奧(Rodrigo Londono)。諾貝爾其他獎項在斯德哥爾摩頒發。文學獎得主、美國搖滾詩人卜戴倫(Bob Dylan)以「有約」為理由明言缺席典禮,亦無派人代領,但有向大會寄送謝辭,會於稍後晚宴上公開,並由搖滾女歌手Patti Smith代他唱其名曲《A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall》。法新社




來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20161211/19861970
倫比 總統 和平獎 和平
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哥倫比亞恐襲 商場爆炸3死9傷

1 : GS(14)@2017-06-23 01:44:30

哥倫比亞首都波哥大一座高級商場前日發生爆炸,造成至少3死9傷,死者包括一名法國女子。當局已將事件列為恐怖襲擊,暫未有組織承認責任。事發於下午5時左右,商場二樓的女廁突然發生爆炸,有三樓店舖員工指聽到爆炸巨響後出店外查看,看到人們沾滿鮮血,很多女子尖叫。從網傳照片可見,有背部被鐵片割傷的女子倚牆躺地,前面另一名女子大腿鮮血淋漓。由於正值周末繁忙時段,加上是父親節前夕,商場當時逼滿購物人潮。警方事後疏散和關閉商場,派出爆破小隊和警犬搜索是否尚有爆炸品。警方指爆炸裝置屬土製炸彈,很可能是以硝酸銨製成。


23歲法國女義工身亡


總統桑托斯指尚未查明施襲者身份,呼籲民眾如常生活享受父親節。波哥大市長佩納洛薩則稱襲擊「明顯是懦弱的恐襲」,指其中一名死者是23歲法國女子,過去半年在當地一所貧民區學校做義工,本來即將與母親一同回國。當地現僅餘的武裝組織「哥倫比亞民族解放軍」(ELN)否認策動襲擊,並譴責這場針對平民的襲擊。ELN近期曾在波哥大發動多宗襲擊,但大多針對警方。法新社/美聯社




來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20170619/20060934
倫比 亞恐 恐襲 商場 爆炸
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財經評論:新盤貴到無與倫比

1 : GS(14)@2018-01-07 15:49:23

2018年港股首個交易日升近600點,昨日仍升45點,有學者估計今年港股將升到你唔信。事實上,不少人都認為港股升至3萬點實在危險,宜趁高套現,奈何股民普遍心態「寧買當頭起」。同一道理,樓市越升越多人追。大埔太和邨一個實用面積得121呎的一人公屋單位,連地價售近200萬元。大家可能會覺得,公屋那有可能值萬六元一呎,同樣呎價市區有大把選擇。奈何現時大多數市民買樓多不理會呎價,只要售價低,就算是100呎單位也有市場。香港樓價已連升20個月,睇怕短期內難有可有令樓市調頭向下的負面消息出現,加上股市一日不爆,樓價難大跌。政府實施樓市辣招逾7年,部份二手屋苑的盤源已漸漸枯乾,令樓價裂口爆升。過往新盤開價,通常首批單位都會給予少許甜頭,低開吸客。但過去半年開售的新盤,全線高開,有些更比同區二手貴逾四成。地產商之前賣樓面對區內二手競爭,現時連二手業主都不賣樓,新盤完全不憂賣。現時地產商售樓部的負責人,不是急着為公司散貨,而是如何與別家賣樓鬥貴,鬥創紀錄。新地(016)旗下的馬鞍山雲海乘港股3萬點之勢,搶先開價,首批折實平均呎價近1.7萬元。該公司副董事總經理雷霆更爆金句,「我形容呢個價係無與倫比價,因項目有地鐵海景優勢,低密度佈局全區罕有,所以價錢絕對是無與倫比。」馬鞍山一房最平都624萬元,可能雷生前面講少兩個字。2018年,樓市同股市一樣升到你唔信,升幅完全取決地產商的良心,新盤勢裂口高開,定價「貴到無與倫比」,有如雲海般高聳入雲。記者:朱連峰



來源: https://hk.finance.appledaily.co ... e/20180104/20264568
財經 評論 新盤 盤貴 貴到 到無 無與 倫比
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