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巴菲特認錯 CUP


From


http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/Chui-Cup/article?mid=11801


 

Buffett admits mistakes in annual Berkshire letter

By JOSH FUNK, AP Business Writer Josh Funk, Ap Business Writer – 52 mins ago

 

OMAHA, Neb. – Billionaire Warren Buffett says he made at least one major investing mistake last year by buying a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak.

 

The famous investor recounted his errors in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders released Saturday morning.

 

Berkshire increased its stake in ConocoPhillips from 17.5 million shares in 2007 to 84.9 million shares at the end of 2008.

 

Buffett says he did not anticipate last year's dramatic fall in energy prices, so his decision cost Berkshire shareholders several billion dollars.

 

Buffett says he also spent $244 million on stock in two Irish banks that appeared cheap. But since then, he's had to write down the value of those purchases to $27 million.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090228/ap_on_bi_ge/buffett_letter

Buffett says economy to remain in shambles in 2009
Saturday February 28, 9:33 am ET
By Josh Funk, AP Business Writer


Warren Buffett says America will overcome current economic challenges

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett says all kinds of investors finished 2008 bloodied and confused because of the dysfunctional credit market and other financial turmoil.
And the famous investor said Saturday in his letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shareholders that "the nation's economy will be in shambles throughout 2009."

But Buffett remains optimistic about the country's future. He says America has faced bigger economic challenges in the past, including two World Wars and the Great Depression.

 

He says America's best days remain ahead.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090228/buffett_outlook.html

 

 

股神認衰
巴郡業績 史上最差


 

【明報 專訊】「股神」巴菲特(Warren Buffett)旗下投資旗艦巴郡(Berkshire Hathaway)昨日公布史上最差業績,去年第4季盈利大幅退倒96%,全年純利急跌六成。面對多項投資失利,巴菲特罕有向股東承認錯誤,但對市場回復 長遠健康發展感到樂觀。

 

巴菲特在致股東信件中說﹕「在08年期間,我做了一些愚蠢的投資。我至少作了一個重大的錯誤決定,部分小錯誤也導致了損失……另外,我也犯了由疏忽導致的錯誤,在新形勢到來、應重整思路和果斷採取行動時,我卻吮拇指。」

 

「2008年我做了愚蠢投資」

 

巴菲特 表示,他的重大錯誤決定是在油價接近見頂時,大量增持康菲石油(ConocoPhillips),他萬沒料到在去年下半年油價竟跌得如此急。雖然他仍然相 信未來油價會比現時的每桶40美元至50美元要高得多,但如今他「已鑄成大錯」。他在康菲石油中虧損26.1億美元。

 

至於 「小錯誤」,則包括動用2.44億美元投資兩間「看似便宜的」愛爾蘭銀行,投資金額去年年底只剩2700萬美元,虧損率達89%,今年仍跌勢未止,他形容 這是一次「無壓力犯錯」。但他亦強調,去年參與了數個滿意的投資項目,例如動用145億美元購入箭牌、高盛和通用電氣發行的高息債券。他表示,為了這幾項 投資,他被迫出售部分本想繼續持有的股份套現(包括強生、寶潔和康菲石油)。

 

埋單計 算,巴郡第4季純利僅為1.17億美元,比前年同期的29億美元減少96%。這是巴郡連續第5季錄得盈利退倒,以全年計算,純利由前一年的132.1億美 元下跌至49.9億美元。受各項投資和衍生工具撇帳影響,巴郡去年第4季帳面值下跌9.6%至1093億美元,跌幅為股神1965年收購巴郡以來最大,但 表現仍優於同期跌37%的標普500指數。這是巴郡歷來第二次出現年度帳面值下跌,2001年巴郡帳面值下跌6.2%。

 

衍生工具投資帳面虧蝕大

 

股神用 了很大篇幅對一直備受爭議的衍生工具投資作出回應。巴郡早前與交易對手對賭包括標普500指數在內的4個指數,在2019年某日不會低於特定水平,但全球 股市暴挫,投資者擔心巴郡最終會輸掉370億美元。但巴菲特解釋稱,經計算後這些合約損失暫時為51億美元。巴菲特說﹕「衍生產品十分危險……作為首席風 險監督……若我們在衍生工具輸了錢,這將是我的責任。」

 

對前景樂觀 反對持長債

 

雖然巴郡業績大倒退,但巴菲特對前景仍抱樂觀態度。他預測今年美國經濟會「搖晃不穩」,但「這沒有告訴我們股市會升還是會跌」。

 

巴菲特說﹕「不要忘記我們國家過去也曾面臨更大逆境……但我們沒有失敗,最終克服了難關。」另外,他在信中還指出08年年底美國國債出現泡沬,現時手握現金和長債是很差的選擇。

http://www.mingpaonews.com/20090301/taa1.htm

巴菲特2008年給股東的信:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf



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