📖 ZKIZ Archives

The Beginning of the End… 朱泙漫屠龍記

筆記：The Intelligent Investor, Fourth Edition 聰明的投資者，1973年第四 米可

The little book that beats the market 讀書筆記 米可

Shadow banking is not the issue 張化橋

The Blood of War 朱泙漫屠龍記

據說中海油(00883：HK)正與冰島的Eykon Energy合作申請，在冰島北極海域進行石油和天然氣開發和生產的許可。而根據美國國家地質調查局(U.S. Geological Survey)估計，北極地區的總石油儲量約為900億桶。究竟北極地區的石油對中海油(00883：HK)有多大效益還是遙遠的事，不過值得留意的反而是中海油田服務(02883：HK)。

The Crowe Memorandum 朱泙漫屠龍記

The hot-money hot air 張化橋

信號與噪音（the Signal and the Noise) Value-hunter

污合之眾---the Crowd 巴黎的價值投資

The World As I See It Barrons

人並不自由，也不獨立，但人生並不在終點結束。個人只是時間洪流中的一粒塵埃，其存在依賴於無數的其他人，並受到這些人的影響。這些人有可能是同時代的人，也可能是很久以前的古人。他們的思想，他們的行動，影響了今天的我們。而我們今天的思想與行為，也將影響無數人，包括已出生和尚未出生的人。人可以沒有信仰，可以不相信因果報應，可以不相信來世，但人們今天的言行必將影響未來無數代人的命運。一個人，尤其是公眾人物，其歷史地位不取決於精心編織的公關形象，而是取決於其言行對未來的影響。在我看來，今天很多人的言行，是在透支未來無數代人的幸福。從這個意義上講，因果報應是切切實實存在的。無需來世，今後的人們將做出判斷。

（註：以下只是根據我的理解所翻譯，一切以原文為準。）

我的世界觀

愛因斯坦

我們這些終有一死的凡人是如此奇特。我們每個人都只在這世界做短暫的停留，卻從不知停留的目的，儘管有時會自認為領會了人生的真諦。無需更深的思考，一個人從日常生活可知，我們是為了他人而存在。首先，為了那些親近的人活著，因為我們的幸福完全有賴於他們的歡笑和福祉。其次，為了眾多陌生的人活著，因為他們的命運牽動我們的同情心，把我們和他們聯繫在一起。每天我都無數次提醒自己，我內在和外在的生命倚賴他人的勞動，那些活著和死去的人們的勞動。因此，我必須發揮自己的努力，做出與我已經得到和正在得到的一樣多的貢獻。簡樸的生活對我有強烈的吸引力。我常常因意識到過分佔有了同胞們的勞動而感到壓力。我認為階級差別是不公正的,終究還是憑藉暴力維持。我還認為簡單低調的生活對所有人都有益，無論在物質上還是精神上。

我根本不相信哲學意義上的人類自由。每個人的行為不僅是外部所迫，更是內心所驅。叔本華說「人可以做他想要的，但無法決定他想要什麼。」這句話從青年時代起就一直對我是個非常真切的啟示。在我自己和他人的生活中遇到挫折時，這一直是我心靈的慰籍。這同時也是我寬容之心的無盡源泉。這種領悟幸而減緩了容易讓人感到無助的責任感，也避免了我們對自己和他人過分認真。這尤其有助於形成一種給幽默其應有地位的人生觀。

我總認為從客觀的角度看，探尋一個人自身或所有生物存在的意義或目的是荒謬的。但每個人總有一些理想來決定他努力的方向與個人判斷。從這個意義上講，我從來不把安逸享樂本身看作目的。我把這種以安逸享樂為目標的倫理基礎稱作豬欄理想。一直以來，有一些理想在我人生路上一次又一次啟發了我，給了我新的勇氣去樂觀面對生活，這些就是：真、善、美。如果沒有志同道合者的惺惺相惜，沒有對客觀世界的全神貫注，沒有永無止境的在藝術與科學領域的探索，對我來說，生活就會是空虛的。人類通常為之努力的庸俗目標：財產、功名、奢華，在我看來毫無價值。

我強烈的社會正義與社會責任感，總是與我突出的避免直接與人及社會接觸的傾向形成奇怪的對比。我特立獨行，從沒有全心全意地屬於我的國家，我的家，我的朋友，甚至我的直系親屬。在面對所有這些聯繫時，我從沒有放棄距離感與對孤獨的渴望，而且這種感覺隨著年齡與日俱增。一個人清楚地意識到，與他人的相互理解與共鳴是有限的，卻並不因此而感到遺憾。這樣一個人，毫無疑問，會失去一些天真和無憂。但另一方面，他能在很大程度上獨立於他人的意見、習慣與判斷，避免把自己內心的平衡建立在這些脆弱的基礎之上。

我的政治理念是民主。讓每個人作為個體受到尊重而不讓任何人作為偶像受到崇拜。我自己一直受到了過分的讚美與崇敬，這並不是因為我自己的過錯，也不是我自己的功勞，而只是命運的嘲弄。造成這種情況的原因可能是由於很多人無法實現的渴望。他們渴望理解一些理念，而我憑藉微薄的力量與不懈的努力得到了這些理念。我非常清楚，一個組織要實現其目標，就必須有一個人進行思考與指令，並承擔總的責任。但是，這種領導方式決不能是強迫的。人們必須能選擇他們的領袖。在我看來，依靠壓迫的專制制度會很快腐化墮落。因為暴力總是招引品德低下的人。我相信這是一個亙古不變的道理，天才的暴君總是由惡棍來繼承。由於這個原因，我一直強烈反對目前在意大利和俄國所見的政治制度。今天歐洲存在的問題讓民主制度受到懷疑。但這不應歸咎於民主的原則本身，而是由於缺乏穩定的政府及選舉系統的客觀因素。我認為從這點來說，美國找到了正確的道路。他們的總統由選舉產生，而且有足夠長的任期與充分的權力去真正履行他的職責。另一方面，我對德國政治系統中最讚賞的是，在個人遇到疾病或者急需的情況下，政府給個人提供更廣泛的支持。在我看來，人類生命中壯麗多彩的篇章中，最有價值的不是政治上的國家，而是有著創造性，感覺敏銳的個體，以及他們鮮明的個性。只有這些個體才創造出高尚與崇高。而廣大庸眾則既不善思也不善感。

這個話題觸及了我痛恨的庸眾生活中最醜陋的一面，軍隊制度。一個人居然對四人一組隨著軍樂隊的節奏列隊前行而感到歡樂，這簡直讓我鄙視。給他一個大大的頭腦簡直是錯誤。沒有保護的簡單反射的脊髓對他就足夠了。軍隊制度這一人類文明罪惡的根源應該盡快被清除。英雄主義的命令，冷血的暴力，和以愛國主義為名的可惡蠢行，我強烈憎恨這些！對我來說，戰爭是卑劣而骯髒的。我寧願被千刀萬剮，也不願參與這種可恨的事情。我人類的看法甚高，如果人民的良知不被商業和政治利益通過學校與媒體系統化的腐蝕，戰爭這一人類社會的怪胎早就消失了。

我們所能擁有的最美的體驗是神秘感。真正的藝術與真正的科學發源於這種基本的情感。體驗不到神秘感的人，他不再好奇，不再驚嘆，如行尸走肉，雙目暗淡。正是這種對神秘的體驗，甚至摻雜了恐懼的情感，才催生了宗教。我們知道存在一些我們無法洞察的東西，我們所感受到的最深奧的理性和最絢麗的美，也只能以其最原始的形式而被我們的心智所理解。這種認知和情感構成了真正意義上的宗教信仰。從這個意義上說，而且只是從這個意義上說，我是個虔誠的信教者。我無法設想一個獎懲他所創造之物的上帝，或者上帝也有著我們自己所體會的那種意志。我不能，也不願設想一個人能逃脫他身體的死亡。讓那些脆弱的靈魂，無論是出於恐懼還是愚蠢的利己思想，去珍視如此的想法。我滿足於生命的永恆之神秘，滿足於覺察並窺視現存世界的奇妙結構。我全心致力於領悟那種在自然界中所展現出的深奧理性的一部分，即便是滄海一粟，我也心滿意足。

The World As I See It

AlbertEinstein

How strange is the lot of usmortals! Each of us is here for a brief sojourn; for what purposehe knows not, though he sometimes thinks he senses it. But withoutdeeper reflection one knows from daily life that one exists forother people – first of all for those upon whose smiles andwell-being our own happiness is wholly dependent, and then for themany, unknown to us, to whose destinies we are bound by the ties ofsympathy. A hundred times every day I remind myself that my innerand outer life are based on the labors of other men, living anddead, and that I must exert myself in order to give in the samemeasure as I have received and am still receiving. I am stronglydrawn to a frugal life and am often oppressively aware that I amengrossing an undue amount of the labor of my fellow-men. I regardclass distinctions as unjustified and, in the last resort, based onforce. I also believe that a simple and unassuming life is good foreverybody, physically and mentally.

I do not at all believe in humanfreedom in the philosophical sense. Everybody acts not only underexternal compulsion but also in accordance with inner necessity.Schopenhauer's saying, 「A man can do what he wants, but not wantwhat he wants,」 has been a very real inspiration to me since myyouth; it has been a continual consolation in the face of life'shardships, my own and others', and an unfailing well-spring oftolerance. This realization mercifully mitigates the easilyparalyzing sense of responsibility and prevents us from takingourselves and other people all too seriously; it is conducive to aview of life which, in particular, gives humor its due.

To inquire after the meaning orobject of one's own existence or that of all creatures has alwaysseemed to me absurd from an objective point of view. And yeteverybody has certain ideals which determine the direction of hisendeavors and his judgments. In this sense I have never looked uponease and happiness as ends in themselves--thisethical basis I callthe ideal of a pigsty.The ideals which have lighted my way and timeafter time have given me new courage to face lifecheerfully, havebeen Kindness, Beauty, and Truth. Without the sense of kinship withmen of like mind, without theoccupation with the objectiveworld,the eternally unattainable in the field of art and scientificendeavors, life would have seemed to me empty. The triteobjects ofhuman efforts--possessions, outward success, luxury--have alwaysseemed to me contemptible.      

My passionate sense of socialjustice and social responsibility has always contrasted oddly withmy pronounced lack of need for direct contact with other humanbeings and human communities. I am truly a 「lone traveler」 and havenever belonged to my country, my home, my friends, or even myimmediate family, with my whole heart; in the face of all theseties,I have never lost asense of distance and a needforsolitude--feelingswhich increase with the years. One becomessharply aware, but without regret, of the limits of mutualunderstanding and consonance with other people. No doubt, such aperson loses some his innocence and unconcern; on the other hand,he is largely independent of the opinions, habits, and judgments ofhis fellows and avoids the temptation tobuild his inner equilibriumuponsuch insecure foundations.      

My political ideal is democracy.Let every man be respected as an individual and no man idolized. Itis an irony of fate that I myself have been the recipient ofexcessive admiration and reverencefrom my fellow-beings,through nofault, and no merit, of my own. The cause of this may well be thedesire, unattainable for many, to understand the fewideas to whichI have with my feeble powers attained through ceaseless struggle. Iam quite aware that it is necessary for the achievementof theobjective of an organization that one man should do the thinkingand directing and generally bear the responsibility.But the ledmust not be coerced, they must be able to choose their leader. Anautocratic system of coercion, in my opinion, soon degenerates. Forforce always attracts men of low morality, and I believe it to bean invariable rule that tyrants of genius are succeeded byscoundrels. For this reason I have always been passionately opposedto systems such as we see in Italy and Russia today. The thing thathas brought discredit upon the form of democracy as it exists inEurope today is not to be laid to the door of the democraticprincipleas such, but to the lack of stability of governments andto the impersonal character of the electoral system. I believe thatin this respect the United States of America have found the rightway. They have a President who is elected for a sufficiently longperiod and has sufficient powers really to exercise hisresponsibility.What I value, on the other hand, in theGermanpolitical system is the more extensive provision that itmakes for the individual in case of illness or need. The reallyvaluable thing in the pageant of human life seems to me not thepolitical state,but the creative, sentient individual, thepersonality; it alone creates the noble and the sublime, while theherd as such remains dull in thought and dull infeeling.      

This topic brings me to that worstoutcrop of the herd life, the military system, which I abhor. Thata man can take pleasure in marching in fours to the strains of aband is enough to make me despise him. He has only been given hisbig brain by mistake; unprotected spinal marrow was all he needed.This plague-spot of civilization ought to be abolished with allpossible speed. Heroism on command, senseless violence, and all theloathsome nonsense that goes by the name of patriotism--howpassionately I hate them!How vile and despicable seems war to me! Iwould rather be hacked in pieces than take part in such anabominable business. My opinion of the human race is high enoughthat I believe this bogey would have disappeared long ago, had thesound sense of the peoples not been systematically corrupted bycommercial and political interests acting through the schools andthe Press.      

The most beautiful experience wecan have is the mysterious.It is the fundamental emotion whichstands at the cradle of true art and true science. Whoever does notknow it and can no longer wonder, no longer marvel, is as good asdead, and his eyes are dimmed. It was the experience ofmystery--even if mixed with fear--that engendered religion. Aknowledge of the existence of something we cannot penetrate,ourperceptions of the profoundest reason and the most radiant beauty,which only in their most primitive forms are accessible to ourminds--it is this knowledge and this emotion that constitute truereligiosity; in this sense, and in this alone, I am a deeplyreligious man. I cannot conceive of a God who rewards and punisheshis creatures, or has a will of the kind that we experience inourselves. Neither can I nor would I want to conceive of anindividual that survives his physical death; let feeble souls, fromfear or absurd egoism, cherish such thoughts. I am satisfied withthe mystery of the eternity of life and with the awareness and aglimpse of the marvelous structure of the existing world, togetherwith the devoted striving to comprehend a portion, be it ever sotiny, of the Reason that manifests itself in nature.