http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_627a300f0102dw1a.html
以前曾看過一些前輩的文章,通過分析M1與M2的增長差,來看指數的牛熊走勢。我覺得M1-M2的差,雖然與指數並非完全正相關,但確實可以做一個方向性的判斷,至少可以看出指數的大體估值區位,以及判斷出指數的上漲主要是基本面因素推動還是資金面因素推動。
月份 | M0(億) | m0同比 | M1(億) | m1同比 | M2(億) | m2同比 | M1-M2 | ||||
Jan-05 | | 7.8% | | 15.8% | | 14.5% | 1.3% | ||||
Feb-05 | | 14.0% | | 11.1% | | 14.2% | -3.2% | ||||
Mar-05 | | 10.1% | | 10.4% | | 14.2% | -3.8% | ||||
Apr-05 | | 9.0% | | 10.5% | | 14.3% | -3.8% | ||||
May-05 | | 9.3% | | 10.4% | | 14.6% | -4.2% | ||||
Jun-05 | | 9.6% | | 11.3% | | 15.7% | -4.4% | ||||
Jul-05 | | 9.1% | | 11.0% | | 16.3% | -5.3% | ||||
Aug-05 | | 9.4% | | 11.5% | | 17.3% | -5.8% | ||||
Sep-05 | | 8.5% | | 11.6% | | 17.9% | -6.3% | ||||
Oct-05 | | 9.5% | | 12.1% | | 18.0% | -5.9% | ||||
Nov-05 | | 10.9% | | 12.7% | | 18.3% | -5.6% | ||||
Dec-05 | | 11.9% | | 11.8% | | 17.6% | -5.8% | ||||
Jan-06 | | 22.1% | | 10.6% | | 19.2% | -8.6% | ||||
Feb-06 | | 8.0% | | 12.4% | | 18.8% | -6.4% | ||||
Mar-06 | | 10.5% | | 12.7% | | 18.8% | -6.1% | ||||
Apr-06 | | 11.5% | | 12.5% | | 18.9% | -6.4% | ||||
May-06 | | 12.8% | | 14.0% | | 19.1% | -5.0% | ||||
Jun-06 | | 12.6% | | 13.9% | | 18.4% | -4.5% | ||||
Jul-06 | | 12.2% | | 15.3% | | 18.4% | -3.1% | ||||
Aug-06 | | 13.3% | | 15.6% | | 17.9% | -2.4% | ||||
Sep-06 | | 15.3% | | 15.7% | | 16.8% | -1.1% | ||||
Oct-06 | | 14.0% | | 16.3% | | 17.1% | -0.8% | ||||
Nov-06 | | 13.9% | | 16.8% | | 16.8% | 0.0% | ||||
Dec-06 | | 12.7% | | 17.5% | | 16.9% | 0.5% | ||||
Jan-07 | | -4.6% | | 19.8% | | 15.8% | 4.0% | ||||
Feb-07 | | 25.1% | | 21.0% | | 17.8% | 3.2% | ||||
Mar-07 | | 16.7% | | 19.8% | | 17.3% | 2.5% | ||||
Apr-07 | | 15.1% | | 20.0% | | 17.1% | 2.9% | ||||
May-07 | | 13.9% | | 19.3% | | 16.7% | 2.5% | ||||
Jun-07 | | 14.5% | | 20.9% | | 17.1% | 3.9% | ||||
Jul-07 | | 15.1% | | 20.9% | | 18.5% | 2.5% | ||||
Aug-07 | | 15.0% | | 22.8% | | 18.1% | 4.7% | ||||
Sep-07 | | 13.0% | | 22.1% | | 18.5% | 3.6% | ||||
Oct-07 | | 13.4% | | 22.2% | | 18.5% | 3.7% | ||||
Nov-07 | | 13.6% | | 21.7% | | 18.5% | 3.2% | ||||
Dec-07 | | 12.2% | | 21.0% | | 16.7% | 4.3% | ||||
Jan-08 | | 31.2% | | 20.5% | | 18.9% | 1.7% | ||||
Feb-08 | | 6.0% | | 19.0% | | 17.4% | 1.6% | ||||
Mar-08 | | 11.1% | | 18.0% | | 16.2% | 1.8% | ||||
Apr-08 | | 10.7% | | 19.1% | | 16.9% | 2.1% | ||||
May-08 | | 12.9% | | 17.9% | | 18.1% | -0.1% | ||||
Jun-08 | | 12.3% | | 14.2% | | 17.4% | -3.2% | ||||
Jul-08 | | 12.3% | | 14.0% | | 16.4% | -2.4% | ||||
Aug-08 | | 10.9% | | 11.5% | | 16.0% | -4.5% | ||||
Sep-08 | | 9.3% | | 9.4% | | 15.3% | -5.9% | ||||
Oct-08 | | 10.6% | | 8.9% | | 15.0% | -6.2% | ||||
Nov-08 | | 9.0% | | 6.8% | | 14.8% | -8.0% | ||||
Dec-08 | | 12.7% | | 9.1% | | 17.8% | -8.8% | ||||
Jan-09 | | 12.0% | | 6.7% | | 18.8% | -12.1% | ||||
Feb-09 | | 8.3% | | 10.9% | | 20.5% | -9.6% | ||||
Mar-09 | | 10.9% | | 17.0% | | 25.5% | -8.5% | ||||
Apr-09 | | 11.3% | | 17.5% | | 26.0% | -8.5% | ||||
May-09 | | 11.2% | | 18.7% | | 25.7% | -7.1% | ||||
Jun-09 | | 11.5% | | 24.8% | | 28.5% | -3.7% | ||||
Jul-09 | | 11.6% | | 26.4% | | 28.4% | -2.1% | ||||
Aug-09 | | 11.5% | | 27.7% | | 28.5% | -0.8% | ||||
Sep-09 | | 16.0% | | 29.5% | | 29.3% | 0.2% | ||||
Oct-09 | | 14.1% | | 32.0% | | 29.4% | 2.6% | ||||
Nov-09 | | 15.0% | | 34.6% | | 29.7% | 4.9% | ||||
Dec-09 | | 11.8% | | 32.4% | | 27.7% | 4.7% | ||||
Jan-10 | | -0.8% | | 39.0% | | 26.0% | 13.0% | ||||
Feb-10 | | 22.0% | | 35.0% | | 25.5% | 9.5% | ||||
Mar-10 | | 15.8% | | 29.9% | | 22.5% | 7.4% | ||||
Apr-10 | | 15.8% | | 31.3% | | 21.5% | 9.8% | ||||
May-10 | | 15.2% | | 29.9% | | 21.0% | 8.9% | ||||
Jun-10 | | 15.7% | | 24.6% | | 18.5% | 6.1% | ||||
Jul-10 | | 15.5% | | 22.9% | | 17.6% | 5.3% | ||||
Aug-10 | | 16.0% | | 21.9% | | 19.2% | 2.7% | ||||
Sep-10 | | 13.8% | | 20.9% | | 19.0% | 1.9% | ||||
Oct-10 | | 16.6% | | 22.1% | | 19.3% | 2.8% | ||||
Nov-10 | | 16.3% | | 22.1% | | 19.5% | 2.6% | ||||
Dec-10 | | 16.7% | | 21.2% | | 19.7% | 1.5% | ||||
Jan-11 | | 42.5% | | 13.6% | | 17.2% | -3.6% | ||||
Feb-11 | | 10.3% | | 14.5% | | 15.7% | -1.2% | ||||
Mar-11 | | 14.8% | | 15.0% | | 16.6% | -1.6% | ||||
Apr-11 | | 14.7% | | 12.9% | | 15.3% | -2.4% | ||||
May-11 | | 15.4% | | 12.7% | | 15.1% | -2.4% | ||||
Jun-11 | | 14.4% | | 13.1% | | 15.9% | -2.8% | ||||
Jul-11 | | 14.3% | | 11.6% | | 14.7% | -3.1% | ||||
Aug-11 | | 14.7% | | 11.2% | | 13.5% | -2.3% | ||||
Sep-11 | | 12.7% | | 8.9% | | 13.0% | -4.2% | ||||
Oct-11 | | 11.9% | | 8.4% | | 12.9% | -4.5% | ||||
Nov-11 | | 12.0% | | 7.8% | | 12.7% | -4.9% | ||||
Dec-11 | | 13.8% | | 7.9% | | 13.6% | -5.7% |