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李禄 思想花园


http://sixianghuayuan2.blogspot.com/2010/07/blog-post_31.html


李禄什么时候回过中国的?当局是怎么判断的?是在什么样的情况下,给了他签证的?他需不需要保证什么? 要不然他怎么看比亚迪的?

不免感到好奇。今天中国证监机构,人民银行高层,很多是李禄在美国的同学,应该也起了作用吧。

作为中国人来说,巴菲特如果真的选李禄,这肯定是他最大,最后,最重要,也希望是最好的投资。巴菲特的投资风格,说根到底,还是看人而已。

巴菲特如果选李禄,看来匪夷所思,但起码有两个理由是成立的:

第一,从三十年,五十年的时间尺度来看,未来世界的经济重心必然转移到亚洲,中国很可能取代美国的位置。从投资的角度来说,如果要在未来三十年,还能维持巴郡每年百分之二十的回报率,中国投资市场将起很关键作用。

选一个中国人来接班,是非常前瞻大胆的做法,但也很符合巴菲特的思路,因为他看问题都是看十年二十年以后的。

第二,巴菲特的接班人,为人道德,个人品质方面,必须符合最严格的要求。从这点来说,基金经理很难证明自己的track record,不是说做做义工,把收入捐一些给慈善机构就能完事的。

李禄刚好有八九的经历,作为副总指挥,后来亡命天涯,等于是经受了最严格的个人品质考验,能当大器。

新浪网对李禄在八九年的经历只字不提。

可以肯定,如果李禄真的接巴菲特的班,八九平反的日程肯定加快很多,本来就是一个时间问题而已。中共最会顺水推舟,做个人情而已。

连冯小刚在接受访问时也说,他考虑过在唐山大地震中拍这段,但还是放弃了。

如果邓文迪接管了新闻集团,李禄接管了巴郡,那二十年后,(大陆)中国人在国际舞台上的力量真不可小看。软的硬的都有了,西方主流的精华到时候都在中国人手里了。


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08 年 9 月 27 日,當巴群入股比亞迪的消息於媒體曝光時,比亞迪的股價仍未到 $20。

09 年 8 月,比亞迪的股價平均企穩 $80 以上。

09 年 10 月,據內地傳媒報導,中國汽車工業協會常務副會長董揚,在全國機械工業行業協會工作會議上透露,為落實《汽車產業調整和振興規劃》提出的發展電動汽車的規 劃目標,國內前十位整車企業已簽署《電動汽車發展共同行動綱要》。簽署的十家汽車商,包括為上汽集團、一汽集團、東風汽車集團、長安汽車集團、廣汽集團、 北汽集團、中國重汽、華晨汽車、奇瑞汽車、江淮汽車。這十家均是大型的汽車廠。

請注意:比亞迪榜上無名。

之後,比亞迪股價開始一浪低於一浪。

今年 7 月,國土資源部在官方網站發佈公告,稱陜西省戶縣比亞迪汽車有限公司擴建工程涉及違法佔地。

昨日,比亞迪股價收 $53.45。

以上兩則消息,一般散戶也知道

- 比亞迪並非如紫金有強硬後台
- 對比亞迪的股價有嚴重長遠負面影響

翻查港交所有關持比亞迪逾 5% 股權者之持股變化,不覺巴群於以上兩則消息曝光前後大幅減持比亞迪股份。

若李祿全權負責巴群比亞迪股份之增減,對以上兩則消息不為所動,堅持長持比亞迪股份,或巴菲特屬意由他接班後,大大加強巴群持中資股的比例之餘,長期持有之風格不變,個人不懷疑他當巴菲特接班人的能力,只懷疑他能獲巴菲特垂青,背後是否國家暗中安排。


...





連我等小散戶也明白,中資股絕不能長期持有,股價頂多只有 7 年風光的定律,李祿不可能不清楚。

民企如非紫金這類後台特別強硬的,不論 公認行業龍頭或由頂級財技高手親自操盤,股價頂多只有 7 年風光。就算如網絡界的騰訊,被媒體指其強勢和霸度足以扼殺所有後來創業者的毅力和創意,相信由它 04 年 6 月上市到今年 3 月尾壹周刊傳出馬化騰與阿 Sa 的緋聞及隨之而來,國家隊網絡產業登場,三網融合後內地各種加強監管網絡產業的通知和法規,騰訊對網絡創業者的殺傷力可能繼續有效,但其股價長升長有的神 話恐怕不再。

民企能稱霸 7 年,除非如蒙牛,獲國企資金於企業遇到危機時,相對低價入股變成半國有化,否則其發展勢頭,必遭對其既得利益垂涎之國家機器打壓。國進民退,骨子裡仍是根 本國策。國家愈是煞有介事推出鼓勵民營資本參與壟斷行業的通知或政策文件出台,愈相信這只是引蛇 (民營資本) 出洞,把蛇養肥後再由國家機器配合政策改變去宰殺之毒招。


...





至於國企,個人認為,因國家不欲開放,只想進一步收緊民眾及媒體對國企這類最大利益集團之監督能力,為免因此引起的反彈太大,唯有將國企分批分期上市,讓境內外大戶資金及其股價背後反映之訊息,加強其企業行為之透明度作補償。

其次當然是趁市旺時盡量圈錢,及將國家為國企過往嚴重侵害國家利益之行為所帶來的風險,例如內銀過往之鉅額呆壞帳,卸給市場眾參與者分攤。

小股東的利益,從來,及可見將來,絕非國家首要或次要考慮。

雖中國國企相對外國龍頭企業的壟斷能力會令巴群選股時獲優先考慮,但其上市之根本目的,若李祿刻意不對巴菲特多加提點,巴群的投資團隊,可能因過份看重其壟斷能力,決定長期持有而鑄成大錯。

李祿 思想 花園
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李禄 -2 思想花园


http://sixianghuayuan2.blogspot.com/2010/08/2.html


太妙了!

前面伊马打君的评论实在是太妙了!

伊马打君提出了“中国民企的成长性”这个命题,如果中国民企的成长性存在着一个GLASS CEILING,那李录将来可能的投资王者宝座,不过是建在浮沙上而已,一个美丽的误会。

对李录事件的评论,我已经看了很多,这是我到目前为止,看到的最精辟,最深入的评论。这样的评论,能出现在这个博客上,作为这个博客的主人之一,我深深感到自豪。

这个角度,实际上把几个重大的问题连接起来了:不同的投资理念,不同的意识形态对立,甚至和二十一世纪人类发展历史最大的悬念息息相关,也就是,中国的发展模式到底能否持续?

更妙的地方是,对于这个问题的讨论,海外和香港不会达到太高的深度,而内地则不可能充分展开。所以读者诸君共勉之,一起来思考和交流。

在这个论题上,可以深入讨论的问题有很多,我先想到了几个:

1,如果李禄掌管了巴郡,他对国企会是什么态度?

巴菲特没有意识形态的包袱,他可以投资中石油,而且,他也是小注怡情而已。但即使是巴菲特,也有他的旗舰项目,例如保险公司,可口可乐等。如果李琭要有自己的旗舰项目,他不能回避这个问题。

2,民企的成长性,是否真的就有上限?

我们说,一个成功的投资者,在于能发掘出在一个长的时间尺度持续成长的企业,对巴郡这样的大型基金来说,更是如此。

中国经济发展的历史其实很短,不管才二三十年,对比西方几百年的发展,说不上有什么历史参考价值。而中国民企的所面对的政经风险,西方投资者未必能理解。李录能理解吗?

美国没有“民企”的概念,所以巴郡可以放心持有华邮,可口可乐,吉列,而不用考虑企业的存续问题。

何况,就算到现在,也不能说得上比亚迪的投资,就能经得起历史的考验。

3,还是国企的问题。

如果不能重仓民企,那是否就重仓国企?如果出现当年“苏东波”这样的局面(也就是李录本身当年想致力达致的局面),那国企是否还有投资价值?这都是象巴郡这样的基金所要考虑的。

李祿 思想 花園
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李禄-3 思想花园


http://sixianghuayuan2.blogspot.com/2010/08/3.html


(1)
承接前面提出的三个问题,有关的问题和思考,继续讨论。

4,巴郡基金将如何面对将来的宏调风险?

我们都知道,巴菲特的投资风格,是bottom up的,所谓的gobal marcro factors起着不是很重要的作用。

问题是,如果李禄接管巴郡,是否愿意面对中国的宏调政策?还是觉得不重要?还有,是否能够理解?毕竟,他出国已经那么多年了,而且一直处在一个截然不同的意识形态背景中。

作为比较,重新出山的东尼波顿,想在中国大展拳脚。他所上的第一课,就是认识什么是宏观调控。按照他说的,中国政府会选择在每个行业中扶持“龙头企业”,认识这点,对中国的行业投资至为重要。

可是这和巴郡的投资风格又何其南辕北辙!首先,猜测政府的心意,谁是乖孩子,谁和谁的关系如何,相信政治大于相信市场,这是巴郡从不会做,也更不应该做的事。

更不要忘了,李禄的个人背景,他应该对这些裙带资本主义深痛恶觉才是,否则就是背叛了他自己,也背叛了在投资生涯上一直支持他的人。

好了,问题来了,这样在中国行通吗?

这真是个价值千亿的问题。

5,巴郡的资本运作模式能否在中国复制?

我们也知道,巴郡的资本运作并非只是买卖股票那么简单。每个大刁的背后,都有眼花缭乱的资本安排,并购,不同融资安排等。

这在中国行得通吗?

单不说远,最近就有外资收购汇源和徐工失败的个案。特别是汇源,既不是战略产业,也不是国有公司,外资想并购都面临那么大的政治风险。像巴菲特那样把旗下保险公司当吸水机那样用,更是毫无可能的。

(2)
综上以上观点,巴菲特如果选择李禄,应该是一个错误的决定,因为巴郡的成功模式不可能在中国复制。如果是这样,就没有必要选择李禄,因为他作为一个基金经理的表现实在是平平无奇。

现在传出这样的消息,无非是两种可能。

第一种可能,巴菲特在这个问题上已经失去了理智,感性凌驾理性。虽然巴菲特是个专业投资人,不大可能犯这种错误,但也是可以理解的。

选 择接班人的问题,对于一个习惯独尊的人来说,是很难理性面对的。因为这涉及到自己生死,和一些基本世界观,是否忠诚等。例如毛泽东选择王洪文,金庸选择于 品海做接班人,都是感性凌驾理性,虽然他们自己在各自的领域很有成绩。在成熟的政治环境,最高权力的继承和交接有一套程序;但在没有制衡的情况下,恐怕还 是交班人的个人喜好因素大于一切。

第二种可能,巴菲特是在用激将法。他心目中的接班人并非李禄,而是另有其人,但另外那个人可能到现在还 没有让巴菲特满意的言行,例如表示出忠诚之类,所以巴菲特就放出风来,希望另外那个真命天子着紧一些。要不然就交给一个中国人了,这样应该能起比较大的刺 激作用吧。毕竟,巴菲特也八十了,不能无限期再拖下去。

个人以外,第二种可能更加接近现实。

有关这些继位和接班的运作,中国人已经有了几千年的经验。而几千年的经验告诉我们,凡是在这样的关头,第一个跑出的候选者,多半会不是真命天子。

李祿 思想 花園
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中南海的通緝犯 資本主義的大玩家 李祿 民運人士成巴菲特接班人選


2010-8-9 TWM




有機會成為波克夏投資團隊接班人的李祿,從民運人士到基金操盤手的經歷,宛若一則傳奇故事,為巴菲特引薦比亞迪更是他的得意之作。然而李祿的投資戰果目前看來並不顯赫,如果未來要當巴菲特的接班人,恐怕還需要時間驗證績效。

撰文.周岐原 研究員.楊卓翰二十一年前,他站在中國的中心︱︱北京天安門廣場呼喊民主,日後成為中國官方全面通緝的焦點人物;二十一年後,全球媒體又將他視為焦點,四處追尋他的身影。

他,就是李祿,在中國公安部天安門示威學生通緝名單中,排行第十八;這也是李祿,全球股價最高的波克夏.海瑟威(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)公司成立至今,唯一曝光的接班人選。他的雙重身分充滿了傳奇色彩,有趣的是,無論是逃亡或暴富,李祿的生命,似乎總離不開中國。

自去年開始,「股神」巴菲特(Warren Buffett)舉辦的股東年會,就多了比亞迪公司董事長王傳福的身影。在他身邊陪同一位中年中國人,這位中等身材、下巴突起、說話斯文溫吞的人,就是前 民運人士、現任私募基金經理人李祿。會議結束後,兩人就站在比亞迪的公司攤位前,向所有波克夏股東解說公司的營運內容。由於與會的股東超過三萬人,李祿和 王傳福一講就是一個多小時,離場的時候,兩人的臉上都顯露疲態。

華爾街的「唐山大地震」

這個場景,日後可能成為絕響,李祿的位子,明年或許將移至場內的最前排。因為巴菲特的搭檔孟格(Charlie Munger)透露,目前自行創業的李祿,被視為繼承波克夏投資總監的重要人選之一。儘管巴菲特、孟格都不願證實這樁人事案是否成真,但從孟格用「大局已 定」字眼推測,李祿脫穎而出的機率相當高。看來這位河北省唐山市出身的中國人,已經為華爾街帶來另一次「唐山大地震」。

一九六六年出生的李祿,今年才四十四歲。然而綜觀李祿的前半生,幾乎每十年就會出現一番天搖地動,將他的生命全盤翻轉至另一個方向。例如十歲那年,家鄉唐 山發生強烈地震,文革後好不容易團聚的一家人,面臨親戚、朋友傷亡的慘劇;二十歲時,李祿自南京大學物理系降轉經濟系,從大一開始念起,如果沒有這個決 定,天安門事件發生時,李祿可能已自南京大學畢業;三十歲時,民運領袖李祿經香港支聯會暗中協助逃到香港,轉赴美國完成在哥倫比亞大學的學業,決定踏上證 券投資之路。

一堂演講一門課 愛上投資一九八九年底,李祿被哥倫比亞大學錄取,在後來的七年裡,李祿先後完成經濟學士、法學博士和企管碩士等三個學位,是哥大校史第一人。在這七年中,對李祿最具啟發的學習經驗,是一堂演講與一門課。

一九九三年,李祿參加了校友巴菲特的演講,當時,巴菲特剛剛以八十億美元的身價,成為全美國的首富。面對面聆聽巴菲特闡述價值投資的觀念,讓李祿對投資股 市的興趣更加濃厚。而葛拉漢投資研究中心(The Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing)的價值投資課,就成了李祿最好的選擇。

由名教授格林沃德(Bruce Greenwald)開設的價值投資學簡介(introduction to value investing),堪稱是哥大商學院的招牌課程;每次格林沃德講授這門課,都會吸引數百位學生前來參加。在課堂上,李祿從選股策略開始學起,然後嘗試 評估企業內在價值與抑制投資風險。課程結束後,由葛拉漢(Benjamin Graham)提倡、巴菲特發揚光大的﹁價值投資法﹂,已經對李祿的投資觀念產生深刻影響。

其實,李祿的投資史從初抵美國就開始了。那時候,李祿省下出版自傳︽移山︾(Moving the Mountain)分得的版稅,結合演講得到的贊助津貼,將這些錢拿來投資股票。

在九○年代初期股市大漲帶動下,李祿最初的本錢,為他賺得了第一桶金——十二萬五千美元。這筆足夠支應他的生活開銷和學費的財富,更加堅定了李祿投身金融 業的打算。「那時候起,我就意識到錢滾錢的威力。」李祿回憶道,「資本主義的核心宗旨就是如此,沒有資本,哪能夠談主義?」談到資本主義,李祿的感觸尤 深。曾經帶領群眾示威和經歷殘酷鎮壓的他,把「Free man, free market」這句話當作真理一般信仰。李祿說道:「若沒有人權自由,就不會有自由市場,那只能叫作剝削。」他補充道:「中國沒有資本市場,只有腐敗的官 僚體系,這就是中國。」當時的李祿語氣激烈而直接,彷彿廣場死難學生的陰影,還停留在這位學運副總指揮的面前。

性格鮮明的李祿,對牛市也有一番辛辣的評論,有一次他接受︽紐約觀察家報︾(New York Observer)訪談時指出,資本市場的高峰期,和女性的性高潮性質頗為接近,兩者都會出現多次攀上高點的過程。「但別忘記,高潮不能永久持續,」他 說,股市泡沫總會破滅,就好像女性高潮總會結束一般。然而股市和女性更接近的地方是,都難免出現一段低潮期;在這段期間,投資人感到厭倦,對市場毫無興 趣,而女性則對性高潮提不起勁。

結束學業後,李祿原本想自行創業。然而他的資本不足,本身又缺乏管理經驗,創業的風險太大。因此李祿決定先進入以承銷高息債券聞名的DLJ投資銀行(Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette)任職。

儘管出路不錯,李祿卻對投銀竭力服務客戶的作風感到十分厭倦。隨著網路公司大量出現,創業的念頭又在他的血液裡湧動。恰好李祿遇到一位曾聽過自己講述六四 經歷的富商,在這位富商拿出二百萬美元的「實質鼓勵」下,李祿決定離職創業。一九九七年,在天王搖滾歌手史汀(Sting)等更多股東加入後,李祿的喜馬 拉雅創投(Himalaya Capital Ventures, L.P.)成立了。

最初,李祿的辦公室只有一台電腦、一部彭博系統和一線電話,辦公室空間狹小而侷促。李祿穿著折扣店買來的亞曼尼西裝,夢想在這裡大展鴻圖。然而,他的計畫 很快就被現實打碎了。雖然學巴菲特布局價格低於價值的股票,但他重壓的亞洲股市,因為金融風暴影響全面大跌,光是九八年度,李祿的基金就淨損一九%。

不愛大漲牛市 與孟格契合李祿事後回憶道:「讓股東賠錢的感覺,實在是糟透了。」接下來幾年,他的股票部位隨股市反彈而回升,但他心底對投資的疑問並沒有解決。「到底應該如何選股?」變成撼動李祿投資信念的問題。直到他遇見孟格,這個謎團才得到解答。

○三年的感恩節,李祿透過友人介紹認識了孟格,兩人一見如故。孟格後來形容自己和李祿的共通點,就是「都不喜歡面對大漲的牛市」,從這一點可以看出,李祿 十分奉行價值投資的理念;或許正因如此,宣示接班人「必須對波克夏有特殊感情」的巴菲特與孟格,才會對李祿青睞有加。

在與孟格的一番促膝長談後,李祿的投資觀念改弦易轍。隔年,李祿大幅改組股東陣容,引進孟格資金,並將基金轉型為長期投資。值得注意的是,他的投資績效自 此脫胎換骨,自○四年第四季至去年底,李祿的LL Investment基金繳出年複合報酬率三六%的佳績。而從基金成立至今的十二年間,李祿的投資報酬率更是超過二十倍。

有趣的是,李祿的投資績效和個人財富,大部分來自比亞迪的貢獻;這家公司的主要市場,正是十多年前他痛斥「沒有資本市場,只有腐敗官僚」的中國。

據了解,今年九月,李祿更將以「特殊身分」在逃亡二十一年後首度返回故鄉中國,帶著微軟創辦人比爾蓋茲(Bill Gates)等人前往深圳,參觀比亞迪總部及工廠。可見在○二年就獨具慧眼大買比亞迪的李祿,已經接受中國崛起的現實。而事過境遷,能否賺錢似乎還是比推 動民主更實際一些。

直到三十歲以前,李祿都戴著一副厚重的圓框眼鏡,那時的他初出茅廬,眼神散發激昂而精明的光采。

三十歲以後,李祿臉上的眼鏡不見了,眼神變得老練而沉穩,正是這雙眼睛,讓他看見股票投資的無窮機會,賺進人生的第一桶金;也是這雙眼睛,讓李祿得以洞察比亞迪日後的龐大爆發力,令他在暴富之餘,更有機會以「投資人士」的身分,重返暌違已久的故鄉。

儘管李祿採取類似巴菲特的「逆勢」投資哲學,讓他在比亞迪一役獲得大勝;然而十多年的證券投資經驗裡,李祿唯一可端上台面的戰功,也只有比亞迪一樁。李祿 自己的基金規模約八千萬美元,和波克夏上千億美元的投資部位比起來只是九牛一毛,兩者的操作難度差距也更遠;若想接下傳奇性的波克夏公司投資職務,李祿還 需要拿出更多實質績效。

據了解,痛恨作空股票的李祿專長﹁巨額投資法﹂,也就是不會在大跌時停損的單邊策略。這種方法在選擇中小型成長股、或大盤多頭時固然很管用,但若遇到漫長 的盤跌,﹁巨額投資法﹂可能會給基金帶來嚴重損失。例如今年上半年,李祿的基金下跌了約一三%,跌幅就比標準普爾五百指數的六.六%高出一倍。

儘管李祿的操作波動起伏劇烈,但是巴菲特和孟格的著眼點,可能是寄望李祿能用發掘比亞迪的眼光,在中國資本市場發掘更多未受注意的璞玉,並且提前買進吧!

司徒華盛讚李祿

有情義不忘本

「後來很多人(民運人士)看到我們,都裝作不認識,只有他(李祿)不忘本!」,談到李祿,香港支聯會(香港市民支援愛國民主運動聯合會)主席司徒華大聲地說。

司徒華回憶,在接受援助逃至香港的民運領袖中,李祿是讓人印象頗深刻的一位。「那時風聲很緊,和學生們相處的時間不多」,司徒華回憶,「但幾次在海外相 見,李祿都認出我來。」司徒華說,救援學生脫險的「黃雀行動」結束多年後,他曾在洛杉磯偶遇李祿,他當場捐了3千美元給支聯會。後來,兩人又在紐約相見, 李祿再次拿了5千美元給司徒華。司徒華說,「憑著這一點,我就知道他是未忘根本的人。」

李祿(右)

出生:1966年

現職:李祿基金(LL Investment)經理人學歷:美國哥倫比亞大學經濟學學士、企管碩士、法學博士經歷:天安門民運領袖之一、喜瑪拉雅避險基金創辦人、李祿基金創辦人


中南海 中南 通緝犯 通緝 資本 主義 的大 玩家 李祿 民運 人士 巴菲特 巴菲 接班 人選
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李祿演講之感想--兼談價值投資(1) slamnow

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_6a54e96a01011hd8.html
感謝surfer的轉貼 
這是一篇非常好的演講。希望多多分享類似級別的演講看了之後獲益匪淺。 

這兩年多來。巴菲特為何投資BYD一直是一個困擾我的原因。一直沒有找到合理的解釋和為何老頭子會投資BYD。 

我曾經找很多朋友討論都沒有什麼可信賴的答案。 
兩年多來最合理的解釋是早前襄陽提出過的一個。巴菲特投資BYD是因為BYD改變汽車生產模式。這和當時BYD用人工替代機械做手機鋰電池一個意思。BYD用人工替代大規模自動化生產線生產汽車。現在看來這個觀點也有瑕疵。 

巴菲特投資思路是在李祿演講的問答階段解釋了。 

其實主要是兩點 

1.電動車替代傳統的柴油汽油車的時代來領。 

2.就汽車時代的經驗三大甚至包含各大汽車廠作為核心技術的發動機都是自己生產。 
電動車的核心是電池+整車 
這世界上唯有BYD是有電池和整車技術 
這是他們投資BYD的核心邏輯。 

「There is really only one company that is a leader in battery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing」 

Q: Right – but what did you look at to reach that view? 
Li Lu: There are a lot of people who have worked over 100 years making great cars. The technology for building a traditional car has been refined enough to where it can be learned in a short period. The place we are still seeing a curve of continuous rapid improvement is with the batteries for cars. Whoever is leading the charge will have a major advantage. There is really only one company that is a leader in battery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing. There is only one company. To put this together you need a Ford to put that together. So far those two elements need to be put together. It is not an easy process. 

李祿演講的錄像資料這裡有: 
http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/fla ... enwald_04-15-10.flv 


說一下我對電動車的思考 

1.電動車替代汽車是大勢所趨。 
但是至於現在是否是迎接轉載點來領說實話我沒太大把握。但是可以肯定轉折點越來越近。 

。 

電動車最大瓶頸確實是電池。這點上李祿的觀點很正確。起碼和我的觀點一致。 

傳統汽車三大部分 

發動機+傳動系統+控制系統(電子控制) 

電動車 

電機+電池+控制系統 

電機是非常成熟的產業。無非是定子和轉子。甚至當前汽車內也有很多比如電動窗和電動座椅用的就是直線電機。 

因為電機的成熟可以讓電動車用四個電機直接至於車輪而改變傳統汽車發動機+傳動系統的結構 

也就是四個電機驅動四個車輪只要用電線連接提供電力。 
這會極大減輕車體重量。 

電機還有一個好處是啟動速度快。詳細數據可以參見用蓮花模型的Tesla上月剛IPO上市。 
插一句。早前寶馬的新能源汽車的方向是氫能源。現在也放棄了。所以電動車可以確定為下一個方向。其他方向的嘗試目前都暫時都停止了。 


2.電池 
電池技術的發展或許可以解釋為近幾年的80塊的油價給了電池技術足夠的科研經費。 

這方面有非常多的研究文章。 

方向上也分 
日系的磷酸錳鋰。美系的磷酸鐵鋰兩大方向。 

李祿文章中提到的BYD是電池和汽車一體是全球唯一一家。這確實是事實。 
但是為何其他所有開發電動車的廠家都是找電池配套的呢? 

從volt - LG chemical 

從ford- jonson control 

從leaf-NEC(合資) 

Chrsyler-Aone (上週這單撤銷了chrsyler重新找合作夥伴) 

包括全球唯一量產的Tesla都宣稱自己不做電池。只做電池控制。 


為什麼其他家都是合資的?只有BYD全產業鏈。難道是世界錯了唯有BYD對了嗎? 

這想法太過瘋狂。 

起碼我不認同。 

但是單就投資角度我不得不說BYD已經是一個標竿式的投資。人家好壞賺了100億。對錯的討論已經沒有任何意義。
李祿 演講 感想 兼談 價值 投資 slamnow
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李祿談投資 (2010哥倫比亞大學演講摘要)

從六四民運學生領袖到成功投資家,李祿的經歷都幾傳奇性。 這令我想起剛看完的電影中國合伙人, 中國改革開放這時代巨輪改寫了很多人的命運, 而這都是他們事前無法預料及想象得到。
看過李祿在哥倫比亞大學演講後,感覺他的投資功力果然深厚, 難怪芒格和巴菲特比願意給錢他投資。以下是那次演講摘要,有點長,但絕對值得一看 (筆者嘗試把一部份重點做了underline,希望有所幫助).


…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Bruce Greenwald: Warren Buffett says that when he retires, there are three people he would like to manage his money. First is Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group, who you will hear from later in the course. Next is Greg Alexander of the Sequoia Fund. Third is Li Lu. He happens to manage all of Charlie Munger’s money. I have a small investment with him and in four years it is up 400%.

[Applause]

Li Lu: Columbia is where my whole life in America started. I could barely speak the language. In Columbia it was where I had a new life. It was really in the Value Investing class where I got my career start. I was really worried about my student loan debt at the time and a friend told me about this class and said I need to see a lecture from Warren Buffett.

What I heard that night changed my life. He said three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

Those were three powerful concepts. I had never viewed the stock market like that. I viewed it negatively as a place made up of manipulators who were lining their own pockets. I embarked on an intensive two year study learning everything about Buffett.

Two years after that I bought my first stock. After I graduated I worked at an investment bank for a year and realized it was a mistake. I tried to start a fund but I didn’t have a track record. The first year I managed money I lost 19%.

Being a value investor means you look at the downside before looking at the upside. Before becoming an investor you need to look at how you can fail at this game. There are all sorts of ways you can fail. You need to examine who you are and see if you could be good at it. If you could ever find something you can do well that you really like — that will be your best investment. You will do better than competitors. If you can do it with intrinsic passion, that really over time will add enormous value to you.

Back to the game of investing. This concept of margin of safety is an essential concept to be a good investor. The future is unpredictable, you will always be dealt surprises, some positive most negative. You need to build in a level of safety so that whatever happens, you will not get crushed. If you can really successfully know what you are getting into, you can pretty much navigate.

Most people are troubled by what they don’t know. The world is divided by those who know and those who don’t know. If you really know — you will not pull triggers like Wall St. traders. If you are truly intellectually honest, you would not do anything.

This class teaches you to know what you are getting into, especially accepting what things you don’t know. The game of investment is really continuous learning. Everything affects an investment, it constantly changes. You are not investing in the past but the accumulative cash flow of the future. You have to want to find a certain set up where you can know something that most people don’t know. There are plenty of things I don’t know but they don’t factor into the purchase because I am using a huge margin of safety.

Buying a dollar at 50 cents. So if things turn against you, you will be okay. That is not easy. This business is brutally competitive. It is so impossible to know everything and know exactly what is going to happen to a business from now till the end that you really have to accept that what you don’t know.

Finding an edge really only comes from a right frame of mind and years of continuous study. But when you find those insights along the road of study, you need to have the guts and courage to back up the truck and ignore the opinions of everyone else. To be a better investor, you have to stand on your own. You just can’t copy other people’s insights. Sooner or later, the position turns against you. If you don’t have any insights into the business, when it goes from $100 to $50 you aren’t going to know if it will back to $100 or $200.

So this is really difficult, but on the other hand, the rewards are huge. Warren says that if you only come up with 10 good investments in your 40 year career, you will be extraordinarily rich. That’s really what it is. This shows how different value investing is than any other subject.

So how do you really understand and gain that great insight? Pick one business. Any business. And truly understand it. I tell my interns to work through this exercise – imagine a distant relative passes away and you find out that you have inherited 100% of a business they owned. What are you going to do about it? That is the mentality to take when looking at any business. I strongly encourage you to start and understand 1 business, inside out. That is better than any training possible. It does not have to be a great business, it could be any business.

You need to be able to get a feel for how you would do as a 100% owner. If you can do that, you will have a tremendous leg up against the competition. Most people don’t take that first concept correctly and it is quite sad. People view it as a piece of paper and just trade because it is easy to trade. But if it was a business you inherited, you would not be trading. You would really seek out knowledge on how it should be run, how it works. If you start with that, you will eventually know how much that business is worth.

When I started in the business in 1997, it was in the middle of the Asian Financial Crisis. A few years later there was the Internet bubble. A couple years ago was the Great Crash of 2007 – 2008. They are billed as once in a century disasters but happen every few years. Every time it goes against you, your net worth or value of your investments might go down 50%. This is really where that insight and temperament comes in.

In a sense, you have to have a certain confidence in your own judgement and not be swayed by other people’s views.It is not easy. But that is life. It is just a given. It happens to everyone. Berkshire had at least 3 times when the stock went down 50%. It happened to Carnegie. It happened to Rockefeller. It happens to everyone. If you really made a mistake, it would not stop at 50% but go to 0.

This happens to even mighty companies. Look at the top 50 companies in America every 10 years. By the time 20-40 years go by, 2/3rds of them will be gone. By the time it goes to 100 years, there might be only a couple left. It’s just the way it is. Look at what happened to the once mighty General Motors. So thats why I’m saying is, investing is a continuous learning process because your investments are constantly changing

So for those of you that have curiosity and the temperament, this game couldn’t be better. Capitalism rewards people who are talented at capital allocator. So if you have the aptitude and temperament, it is the great game. If you don’t have that then I urge you not to go and become a nuisance. That is really what Wall Street did, they don’t really create anything they just move money around.

Letting the financial industry get too big is bad for the economy, it is just as bad as getting addicted to casinos, drugs, and alcohol. None of them are really useful, they just transfer wealth. That is what I think happened on Wall Street over the last several decades. So avoid being harmful.

With that I am open to questions.

Q: Mohnish Pabrai recently spoke about his reluctance about investing in China due to the multiple accounting books / the possibility of fraud. How do you deal with this given your own investments in China?

Li Lu: Well, you know I think he is right. Every thing has an exception though. Just because a next door neighbor is a fraud doesn’t mean you are. That is one question to ask— whether you can trust the accounting and people running the business. That can have a huge impact on the business. I suggest you spend a lot of time looking at these factors, especially if you are investing for the long haul.

Q: Why did you decide to go into venture capital? How is that different than your other investing?

Li Lu: I always had this bent that I want to build a real business. I started a venture and it was really a lot of fun. Overall, it is a tougher game than simply investing in securities because you have to evolve to the day to day changes in operations and it is just not as easy to build great businesses. Every generation has a handful of great businesses that come from no where and come to dominate their fields.

It is much more rewarding as an investor to pick those. Also, you are more likely to find managers much more capable than yourself. Overall, I learned a lot. I learned a lot in how businesses succeed and how businesses fail. It really was a lot of fun. I probably carried it too far — I eventually ran one of the businesses and it was of course a mistake.

Q: I read that when you look at an industry, you look at the most miserable failures of that industry to see whether you will invest in it. Can you talk a bit about that?

Li Lu: It goes back to understanding the business. Once you have that understanding you can extend it to understanding an industry. A certain industry might have characteristics that make it different than others. In certain industries you might have better prospects than others. Find the best of the players in the industry and the worst players.

And see how they perform over time. And if the worst players perform reasonably well relative to the great players — that tells you something about the characteristics about the industry. That is not always the case but it is often the case. Certain industries are better than others.

So if you can understand a business inside out you can then eventually extend that to understanding an industry. If you can get that insight, it is enormously beneficial. If you can then concentrate that on a business with superior economics in an industry with superior economics with good management and you get them at the right price — the chances are that you can stay for a very long time.

Q: Did you have any specific example?

Li Lu: I have studied many over the years. As I have said, don’t copy other people’s insights because it doesn’t work. Automobiles are amazing. If you look at the early days it started with several players and concentrated with just a few players that became enormously profitable. Then they became miserable. You then see how the life cycle turns with new automakers in China and India. Everything has a reason.

If you want a good idea — look at General Motors from the early days, look every 5 years and see how the performance metrics change. The Graham and Dodd Center should collect all the data and perform some kind of commentary on it.

Bruce Greenwald:Do you want me to give you the answer to that? In the 1960s, their return on capital was 46%. In the 1970s their return on capital was 28%. In the 1980s it was 9% in the 1990s it was 6%. You want to guess how negative it is now?

Li Lu: So that is really fascinating. If you have that data, the amount of insight that would yield would be astonishing. So instead of just accepting the conventional wisdom that the auto business is bad — that is just not true. Or if you say well those guys just unbelievable money machines — that is not true either. So if you can really examine those statistics and understand it that will give you an advantage for analyzing new situations like in China and India. That is really what turns me on. Understanding this gives you a tremendous leg up.

Q: I wanted to ask you about BYD. I heard that you thought it was important for them to introduce a model to the US and wanted to know why you thought that.

Li Lu: That might be a better question to ask the BYD chairman than myself. Well, If you are just talking about electric vehicles, you know the key — the heart and soul of the electric vehicle age the heart is the battery. There is the battery, electric motor, and the electric control control panel. The electric motor has been there for 100 years, control system is software that can be improved over time.

The battery is really where you get the biggest appreciation and is what determines the value of the electric vehicle. 100 years before the Model-T was introduced, the competition between electric vehicles and gasoline was not nearly as optimistic. Up and till then, 1/3rd of cars being produced were electric. It wasn’t until Rockefeller got oil extracted easily enough that it worked. Henry Ford was able to make the internal combustion work even though it wasted 85% of the energy. He was able to build the engine and produce automobiles that were cheap enough for people to buy and it took off. That is where you find the real winners.

Now, years later, we know that the way that oil is burned contributes to global warming. If it continues, the planet might still be here but all the human beings might not. Human beings have only been on the planet for a tiny bit of the earth’s history. So there are all sorts of good reasons for electric cars. Battery development has advanced so much that it is now comparable to the price and performance of traditional cars. So now with the help of companies like BYD, the balance is about to tilt towards where performance and price are getting to the level that makes them a desirable alternative. It will be desirable everywhere. Eventually, if you have a car that does all that, it will be sold everywhere.

Q: What about BYD versus others in the industry?

Li Lu: The market will determine that.

Q: Yeah – but why BYD versus others?

Li Lu: Well because we also studied all those other guys. We will see when the winner emerges whether we are right or wrong.

Q: Right – but what did you look at to reach that view?

Li Lu: There are a lot of people who have worked over 100 years making great cars. The technology for building a traditional car has been refined enough to where it can be learned in a short period. The place we are still seeing a curve of continuous rapid improvement is with the batteries for cars.

Whoever is leading the charge will have a major advantage. There is really only one company that is a leader in battery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing. There is only one company. To put this together you need a Ford to put that together. So far those two elements need to be put together. It is not an easy process.

Q: So you went to BYD in 2005 and then you brought Berkshire as well. I saw that you sold a small amount of your BYD position at the end of last year. Was it just rebalancing? Can I just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

Li Lu: Actually I started my BYD position in 2002. I sold a small amount of shares because an investor of mine had an emergency redemption.

Q: We read your profile online. I had a question –do you have any problems when trying to invest in China?

Li Lu: Yeah I do have some difficulty. I did not really see a factory plant at BYD until the end of 2008. I really did not have a better understanding till then. That really causes you to question what it is before you make an investment. With investing, you have to work with imperfect information because you are buying a piece of the future. I did not really get a chance to get more information because the problem in Asia till much later but it did not stop me from making my investment decision.

So there is a point, where if you have enough margin of safety– that is why I kept coming back to the elementary concept of margin of safety– you can allow much more uncertainty and unknowns. So the answer of the question is does that stop you from making the investment? No.

Q: So I did some research on lithium ion batteries, and I saw that BYD has a manufacturing advantage with consumer batteries. But I saw that automobile batteries are much more complex. I did not think that the idea of a good consumer battery manufacturer + an automobile maker made much sense. So when Buffett looked at the stock maybe it was a better deal but today it is this dream of vehicles that is really priced in. It does not feel like a good value investor stock. So why would you own it today?

Li Lu: Well that is interesting. One of the most fascinating things about being an investor is that surprises are part of the game. When you get into situations like BYD, you see lots of good surprises. Chuanfu and his team have this fabulous culture, everything people thought they knew turned out to be a few years late. He got into battery manufacturing in that particular way because he really had no other option. He had no money, he only had $300,000 in venture capital funding before IPO and that was it.

He raised money in an IPO and Buffett gave him $200M, now they have 160,000 employees. $6-7B in revenues, $500M in net profit. It is amazing. So he has this ability to adapt in a competitive environment. He has demonstrated that ability again again and again. The way he does automation is far cheaper than anyone else and more reliable.

He continues to surprise me with his ingenuity, to figure out ways to do something better than everyone else. What he is currently doing is very different than what everyone else has done. At the end of the day, you might look at what he has done.

So how do you look at it as an investor with imperfect information? Well I suggest you look at what he has accomplished. 8 years ago I had no idea they would go into the automobile or laptop or cellphone battery business. So that demonstrates how he is. This investment is not easy to understand because it is changing so fast, at such a large scale. An almost unheard of speed. Their manufacturing capabilities will double soon.

This year they will hire 10,000 college graduates, 8 or 9 thousand engineers. The scale is almost unparalleled. So this is why the study of history, of all the great corporations will give you a good insight in seeing what will happen with BYD. I suggested that we start with GM and analyze its performance every 5 years for 100 years to understand at least one aspect of BYD’s business.

Q: One investor came in and said talking to management is a waste of time. They will say what you want them to say. Obviously it sounds like you don’t agree with that. What do you think? Will you pay a premium for a business with a moat?

Li Lu: There is no general rule. The key in investing is to know what you know and know what you don’t know. You can know about management teams without meeting with them. Every situation is slightly different. So I come back to the point that if you know enough on other things that there is enough margin of safety. Even if you meet with management, you may not learn something. Obviously, actions speak louder.

You want to see what they have done. Everything being equal, the more you know about management, the more honest and upfront they are, the more motive they have, the better the situation is and the deeper the discount. You have to analyze it all. The key to analyzing it is you have to ask: do I really know what I think I know, do I really know what I don’t know? If you can’t answer that question, chances are you are gambling.

Q: What kind of preparation do you do before meeting a management team?

Li Lu: I don’t really have a set method. Because I usually am just curious about the business and don’t know a lot. So you are prepared and not prepared. If you are really curious, you want to learn more and study it more. When working at a hedge fund or mutual fund, you are expected to learn a business in one week. You can’t truly understand everything about a business in one week.

It took me 10 years and I am still learning new things about BYD. It is a continuous learning process. You could spend a lifetime studying a business or industry, but in a few seconds I can tell you whether or not I like it. You want to build knowledge by continually learning. There is not set preparation.

Q: Recently, Jim Chanos gave us his thesis on the China Syndrome with there possibly being a bubble.

Li Lu: Well, it is too big of a question for me. I don’t know

Q: 20 years ago you said you challenged conventional wisdom in China. Out of curiosity, in terms of value investing what do you challenge in the conventional wisdom?

Li Lu: Well, the fundamental philosophy of value investing is very sound. Its basically the three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

That is really an intelligent approach. So therefore any intelligent investing is really value investing. There is a certain level of intellectual honesty. If you have all that insight going into analyzing businesses I don’t have any arguments with it.

Q: What is your point of view on long / short positions in value investing?

Li Lu: The most profitable kind of investing is long term investing. You want to allow the time that it might take because you don’t know when the market will catch on. If you can find a business with good management with good industry fundamentals blowing it forward, you have a good opportunity and you can save money on taxes.


A short cannot be a fundamentally long term position. In the long game, the upside is unlimited. Your downside is 100%. In shorting it is opposite. Shorting is also essentially borrowing, so you need money and time on your side. If time is not on your side, you can be right but lose all your money.

The best kind of short usually has some kind of fraud. In those situations, management is determined to keep the fraud. Look at Bernie Madoff, 20 years time. You cannot afford to borrow money for 20 years. So shorting is a short term game. When those positions go against you, there is huge leverage that can utterly crush you.

In theory, long / short is okay, but if you are trading all the time you need to be in tune with all the things moving the market. None of them might be fundamental to the actual business. So you spend all your time chasing noise than studying a long term situation. If you cannot concentrate on things in the long term, and spend all your time thinking about the short term, you will not be able to develop the kinds of insights necessary to identify great investments.

From time to time, you will lose some money on paper. But it is just part of the game. This is why I closed long / short. You know I went through three bubbles. The Asian Financial Crisis, the Internet Bubble, and this most recent financial crisis. The biggest mistake I made is not being able to pick up undervalued companies where I had a unique insight but was tied up with this whole long / short thing. The money I left on the table is still adding up. I am still paying for those mistakes.

Q: In a bull market environment, how do you re-evaluate your thesis?

Li Lu: I don’t ever want to profit from a bubble. Soros does that, that is just not my game. I don’t profess any ability to understand how long a crowd will buy into a bubble. I invest in things that appear to be compelling values that continues. So that is why this game is a continuous learning process – because everything affecting the investment is constantly changing. Including the price. Including the prospects and elements of business success. You really do want to never stop learning. This game looks to be easy but it is not easy.


Q: Given your focus on international investments, how do you think about diversifying your investments regionally?

Li Lu: First of all, I did not really specialize in international investments. I started off doing most of my investments in the US and Canada. In recent years, I just find better bargains outside of it. One of the great things about being an investor is you can look anywhere and find great pockets of opportunities. You cannot do that as a venture capitalist as I experienced myself. So you can look anywhere for opportunities.

I do not take a regional approach to diversification. I have views towards certain countries and currencies, but it is not the driving force for a potential investment. If you have your fundamental things right, if you happen to have macro economic factors behind you, you can run a great wave.

Q: How is your investment style different today than when you started the fund?

Li Lu: A lot of things have changed. One bonus about this profession is you get better over time. Most professions, as you get older, you get out of the game. Take the example of competitive sports. If you are a figure skater or gymnast, after your teenage years you are out of the game. With investing, if you are doing it the right way, you get better over time. Your knowledge accumulates exponentially. When I look back at everything I have done, I would have done it all slightly differently, but that is because I am better at it today.


So if you approach it in a fundamentally sound way, as you mature, you become better and better. That process and progression is like compounding money. In fact, you can compound knowledge faster than money. If you truly love this game, I would suggest that you don’t take short cuts. It might take longer but it is more rewarding.

Q: What is the difference between being a top political criminal in China versus a hedge fund manager today (referring to the ire directed at Wall Street)?

Li Lu: I don’t consider myself a criminal. I don’t think China considers me a criminal. What I think we are doing today with our investment in BYD in China is really helping China march towards a modern era of prosperity. BYD is providing a solution to both China and the US, to migrate from the past to a way that gets us out of the unsustainable carbon age that we live in. Global warming is a vital concern to every human being, so China is providing a great contribution to everybody with BYD.


America has had a great history of invention and here is a great company in China that is about to make a major contribution to human civilization with cheap electric vehicles and solar power.
Ultimately we will have to get our energy from the sun. Most of the energy, even fossil fuels (plants that die and then go into the ground), all originally come from the sun. So if you can figure out a way to take energy from the sun and power vehicles, while using batteries to store it, inexpensively — will really make renewable energy power everything.

The combination of those things holds the key to the future of industrial civilization that we are about to embark on. We didn’t set out with BYD with this in mind, it just happened that way. With great companies, it only looks logical in retrospect. Think about how Bill Gates started Microsoft. I don’t think he knew up front that he would take the entire market — at that time it did not exist. It is the same way with our investment in BYD. Ultimately, I think finding an inexpensive way to store energy that we harness from the sun will be a huge contribution for both China and the US, but more broadly our entire civilization.

 
李祿 祿談 投資 2010 倫比 亞大 演講 摘要
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華爾街Guru探尋李祿巴 菲特的黃金理論

1 : GS(14)@2010-08-30 21:41:03

2010-8-21 iM

價值投資法(Value Investing)起源於哥倫比亞大學,由格拉咸(Benjamin Graham)和David Dodd於1920年代創立,徹底地改變了很多人的投資態度,被認為是幻變的財富世界裏唯一不變的黃金真理。股神巴菲特及其接班人李祿,也是價值投資法的忠實奉行者,巴菲特攻讀大學時已師承兩位理論創辦人,視兩老為改變人生的恩師,更替長子取名Graham以表答謝。

本刊記者遠赴美國紐約,追尋被認為是價值投資法權威的哥大教授Bruce Greenwald。他是「Graham & Dodd價值投資中心」的統領人,多年來不斷承傳和發展價值投資學,是巴菲特的老友,更是李祿的師傅,《獲紐約時報》奉為「A guru to Wall Street's gurus」(華爾街大師中的大師),其見解和推論深深影響着投資界對股票升跌的理解和演繹。

「gu」是黑暗,「ru」解作光明。在黑暗中迎接光明,兩個字合起來就是梵文裏的「guru」,意思是擁有睿智的人,能夠帶領你認識真理,撥走雲霧;財富如是,處世亦然。

紐約的盛夏,炎熱也涼快。

跟巴菲特的老友、李祿的老師、價值投資法的權威,兼哥倫比亞大學教授Greenwald走在校園裏,迎面而來的學生都跟他點頭頷首。我們經過林蔭大道,朝大學圖書館方向走,太陽照得猛烈,微風卻輕拂臉頰。習慣了香港的悶熱侷促,這樣子又熱又清涼的環境,很讓人心馳神往。

我倆踱步至全美排名第二的哥大新聞學院門前,Greenwald突然說道:「我們的新聞學院很有名,年年慕名報讀的人多如恆河沙數,每年教出來的新聞系學生川流不息。當世界上有太多記者時,問題就出現了……」

他誇張的嘆一口大氣,刻意的要賣一個關子,「你幹嘛當起記者來?」當我幾乎就要吐出「不平則鳴」這四個字時,才意識到這其實不是一個問題,而是這位華爾街Guru所設的圈套,他立時一臉得意的說:「你們都貪戀記者夠glamouring!」

我還來不及自辯,他隨即接著說:「這麼多記者,傳媒機構請人有幾難?請記者成本還會高嗎?除非你成為了很有名氣的記者,你才會有bargaining power,你才能擁有你的相對優勢。」

於是我們就在午後三時日照當頭之下,挑了草坪旁邊一張長凳來坐,由記者的相對「失勢」開始,將討論延伸至如何才能成為一個擁有相對優勢的投資者。Greenwald清清喉嚨,準備將這套改變了股神巴菲特一生的價值投資法,在僅得一個「學生」的草地上開講了。

﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏

Rule No.1股票不是六合彩

當你拿定主意要買入某隻股票時,情況就如一個硬幣的兩面︰有人買入,便有人同時賣出,前者認為股票將會做好,後者覺得其股價勢將滑落;而買家和賣家兩者之中,一個贏錢,另一個就必然輸錢。

「那麼你要留意自己是否在Right side,否則,你就是犯錯那一方了。」Greenwald提醒,你必須經常質疑自己:「Why am I on the right side of the trade?」這個問題絕不容易回答,但原來有捷徑可抄,就是你最起碼要確定,自己不是正在買入那些「Lottery Ticket(彩票)Stocks」,因為選股票從來不等同於買六合彩。

說話聲如洪鐘的Greenwald,突然就喊出這麼一句:「Stay away from the lottery ticket stocks, the boring and the ugly are good!」

幸運彩票幾乎是每個國家都有的玩意兒,大抵每個對投資有興趣的人也買過一張半張六合彩,但他直言這是最Crappy(糟糕)的投資,買六合彩的錢不過是支付一種希望和夢想,幾乎沒有實質意義。

選那些醜陋無名的股票

他說:「你要找尋便宜的股票,而不是一隻有60個分析員同時虎視眈眈的彩票股。你最好讓自己成為唯一欣賞那隻股票的人,留意最沉悶的、最醜陋的,毫不起眼(Obscure)的股票。」

正如股神巴菲特常言,別人貪婪時你要恐懼,別人恐懼時你最好貪婪入貨;價值投資法第一條的精髓,亦在於要戰勝心魔,別安於淪為平庸的羊群,人云亦云,你必須幹一些其他人不會做的事,也避開一些其他人會失足的陷阱。

「一般人都傾向誇大自己相信的東西,他們看不見Uncertainty。」Greenwald舉例說,當你認為伊拉克藏有攻擊性武器,那麼你大概就能肯定伊拉克不可能沒藏有這些具毀滅性的東西;正如一個人認為那是一隻好股票,那麼他就是真正的100%相信這隻股票一定是好東西,不願承認它是一隻好股票的或然率,實際上少於三分之二,有三分之一機會是爛股票。說?教授眨眨眼睛,很有信心的道:「所以呢,好股票往往超買(Overbought)了,而爛股票則每每超賣(Oversold)了。」

eBay Vs Google

eBay是網上交易平台,Google是網上搜尋器,如果要你憑?價值投資法的規律,在兩家公司中二選一作投資,你會如何選擇?

且聽教授Greenwald如何為這兩家公司把脈:「你想想,我們從Yahoo走來,然後是Alta Vista,現在則是Google,意思是,只要有一天有一個更好的搜尋器出現,Google就玩完了。」

那麼eBay勢頭又如何?

「人人都會想去eBay瀏覽,這幾乎成為凝聚人氣的地方。而且,eBay更有相對優勢,他們在一些已壟斷及領先的拍賣項目中非常賺錢,控制了大局,並且很保護這些具優勢的項目。要巿場上出現新的東西與之競爭,困難得多。」

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Rule No.2Local戰勝Global

正值暑假,校園裏學生不是太多,卻三三五五的結集了不少遊人。眼前突然飄來一連串彩色光影,一個皮膚黝黑得發亮的小女孩,手裏牽住寫?「Happy Birthday」的超人圖案氣球,在草地上又叫又跳,自得其樂。

我跟教授相視而笑,他挪動一下拐杖,換了一個坐姿,就要開腔講價值投資者絕對不能干犯的錯誤:「增長(Growth)並不一定是好東西,相反卻是很有條件性的,不要因?一家公司有增長,就認為買它的股票是一項有價值的投資。」

Greenwald指出,要判斷一家公司的價值,必須由審視它的資產(Asset)開始,然後是其賺錢能力,接?才看增長。只有當投資所得的回報高過成本時,這種「增長」才算有意思,否則只會損害了整家公司的價值。

他舉例說,一家公司拿出1億元作投資,假設籌措這筆錢的成本為每年10%利息,即1,000萬元,而這筆投資所得的年回報率則為8%,即800萬;這條淺顯的減數一算,任憑誰都知道公司每年會蝕200萬元。

「這不就是公司(800萬元)增長,到頭來卻損害了股東的例子嗎?所謂的增長,不過在蠶食公司的價值吧。」

當然,還有一種情況是,當公司每月在償還1,000萬的利息時,那一筆投資卻同時在賺取每年2,000萬的回報,這些便屬於極具價值的增長。只是 Greenwald隨即用很富挑戰性的口吻問道:「我問你,有哪些公司可以一邊付1,000萬利息,一邊又在賺2,000萬元?哪有可能咁容易?」

對「特許權」的重新演繹

依循價值投資法的思路,你必須具有很大的相對優勢,才有機會跑贏同行,而特許權(Franchise)就是很關鍵的指標。「惟有當公司擁有特許的專利,它才有可能用1,000萬成本來賺2,000萬的錢。專利必定是一些你能夠做到,但你的對手不能做到,又抄襲不來的東西。你可能以為科技(Technology)是專利吧,你開發了某種技術,那便是你公司的專利。才不!在高速發展的社會,要做到比其他公司高科技和低成本,是愈來愈難的事,就算你做到了,這種優勢「呼」一聲,好快又失去了。」

大塊頭Guru一邊說,一邊滿臉得意的笑了出來。

「哈哈哈!因為Copy太容易了。科技可以抄,甚麼都可以抄。只有對小部分生產程序非常複雜的行業,以及藥劑之類有完善知識產權保障的行業,你才有機會具有高技術的相對優勢呢。」

如果屬於Supply Side的高科技特許權行不通,那麼Demand Side又有沒有找尋到特許權的可能性?Greenwald頓一頓,再用其很富中氣的聲?提醒記者:「總之,那必須是一些很難複製(Replicate)的東西,才有可能發展為專利。」

諸如死守的顧客群(Customer Captivity),便意味?他們會有重複購買的消費模式,這對品牌或公司來說,便算得上是一種特許權。但只得死守的「熟客仔」不夠,還要加上規模生產(Economies of Scale),兩者結合後,才屬於真正有可能讓公司賺錢,並能保障其擁有的相對優勢的真正特許權(Real Franchise)。

簡單的例子如你到一家墨西哥餐廳吃飯,或許會點一罐墨西哥啤酒,卻未必會要一杯墨西哥可樂,寧願飲你最熟悉的可口可樂。又比如當你對你的家庭醫生,以及習慣光顧的健康檢查機構感覺滿意,那大部分人都不會隨便轉換機構,這便是所謂的死守顧客群。

現代規模生產愈細愈妙

然而在如今的國際化社會,一家公司要達到「規模生產」這項相對優勢也愈來愈難;Greenwald對「規模生產」的現代演繹,出乎意料不是「愈大愈好」,卻是「愈細愈妙」!

他聲調鏗鏘的吐出這個字:「L-o-c-a-l!」

「在這樣子一個全球化的年代,你幾乎已沒可能去統治一個好大的全球巿場,你只能在大世界裏,思考微小的本地化。例如Walmart,他最開始時,是先控制(Dominate)一些很小很本土的地方,享用其基礎建設和產品分配的優勢,當在某一小點的生意做得很穩陣兼且享盡地宜之後,才慢慢進攻另一個美國小城,同樣地在享盡另一個小地方的優勢後,才又開始攻勢,最後在全美賺大錢。但當她一搶攻德國、日本、韓國等,便全盤潰敗,因為她不夠當地的Local競爭,Global贏不了Local。目前很多公司以為全球包抄才是擴充的最好方法,他們全部錯了!」

感情充沛的教授,說話總是抑揚頓挫,沒甚麼冷場,他甫說完就圓睜杏眼,肉緊的望?記者說道:「金融機構,更加不能犯這個錯誤。」

記者頓一頓問:「你熟悉香港的?豐銀行嗎?」

Greenwald甫聽到HSBC四個字,便顯得興致勃勃,隨即大力點頭,將拐杖敲敲地面說:「HSBC is starting to make mistakes!」

?豐錯在衝出亞洲

這一頭香港人最鍾情的大笨象?豐控股(00005),教授Greenwald乍聽在耳裏,竟然連連搖頭,重重歎息。?豐銀行經金融海嘯洗禮,去年3月股價一度插水至低見33元,至今攀升至大約80元水位,復元動力似乎不壞,但這個價值投資法權威教授卻矢言,大笨象干犯了大錯,希望她早日回頭是岸。

「銀行業是一個非常本地化的行業,因為它太倚重本地資訊,而HSBC是紮根香港多年的老字號銀行,在本港能掌握很重要的經濟資訊,而香港亦是她回報率最高的地方。」

Greenwald續說,?豐在本港坐擁高回報、亞洲區亦然,但北美洲業務的回報較亞洲低,歐洲的回報再較美國低。顯而易見,?豐銀行在亞洲區擁有「資訊」這一種「特許權」,亦即是她的相對優勢,惟銀行卻一下子要勇闖全球,在北美和歐洲陌生的地方業務,暴露自己的短處。

這件事情落在教授眼中,是一個極大的錯誤,「你知道嗎,一直以來,賺得最多錢的都是本地銀行,而不是國際銀行(Global Bank),你應該在相對優勢最強的地方發展,但HSBC卻去了她最弱的歐洲,在這個地方損失了好多好多錢的同時,現在仍錯而妄想收回失地。」

教授的眼鏡一直滑落至鼻翼,他也少理,瞇起眼睛說道:「如果我是HSBC,第一件事是把所有歐洲業務賣掉給當地大銀行,只保留部分在美國有不錯定位的業務,然後返回亞洲,統戰大局。堅持保留歐洲資產,簡直是浪費金錢和時間!」

一邊搖頭他仍然心有不甘,嘴裏喃喃自語:「They just love the idea of GLOBAL, that's why they keep making mistakes on the expansion……」

----------------------------------

Rule No.3放長綫釣大魚

價值投資法最後一條,最簡單易明,就是放長綫才釣到大魚。

大塊頭Guru說到這裏,搖一搖頭,皺皺眉說:「你必須嚴守上述3條戒律,才算是一個價值投資者,缺一不可。這是唯一能讓你成功的投資態度,我知道這個答案很沒新意,但這是我所能給你最好的忠告。」

這個看起來的確很老套的第三戒是,面對股巿升跌時必須沉?應變,表現出最嚴格紀律,並且流露最大耐性,別沉迷一朝發達。

Greenwald說了一個扣除手續費後,年回報率平均達25%的The Hummingbird Value Fund管理人Paul Sokin的小故事︰他曾於高盛及多家著名投資公司任策略師,並為忠實的價值投資法奉行者。其策略是專買細價股,故此就算他只購入50萬美元(約390萬港元)股票,很多時他已經擁有了一家公司逾5%的股權,而這也意味?,他做到了價值投資法的第一戒,就是沒有選一些早獲巿場60個分析員垂青的彩票股投資,而運用個人的價值研究方法,覷中自己的投資對象。

股價跌時必須保持信心

他的做法是,作了第一手投資後,見其股價滑落便再入貨,股價一邊跌他一邊再買,絲毫沒有方寸大亂而隨便沽貨。結果發現,他所得的25%回報當中,有22%是來自往後的低價買入,而不是來自第一次的買賣。

教授說道:「如果你已經做足了價值投資者所須做的功課,到最後持有這隻股票時,你便要對自己有信心,並且很有紀律的Stick with你的選擇。因為一隻好的股票,只要它的公司的基本價值沒有改變,那麼股價8元時是好股票,當股價跌到4元時,它將是一隻更好的股票。當你見到 Bargains時要堅持自己的看法,別做傻事。」

至於耐性則是,學Greenwald的口吻,全世界的人都希望盡快發達,他們今日投資了10元,就希望最好兩年後能賺到第一桶100萬的金,然而發達從來不會一朝一夕,耐性才是致富不能缺少的東西。

Amazon 之謎

老貓也會燒鬚?

全球最大?上零售商亞馬遜(Amazon),竟然成為竟是Greenwald的最大痛腳!原來他一直認為這家公司是巿場上的大泡沫,惟至今勢頭依然很勁,讓他不得不承認自己大跌眼鏡。

Greenwald說:「我錯了好幾年。我一直認為Amazon是個泡沫,他們沒有死守的顧客群(Customer Captivity)、沒有一種他人難以抄襲的優勢,他們坐擁很大的巿場,卻沒有集中專門業務。」

不過Amazon股價走勢一直凌厲,至上月公布業績,由於獲利低於巿場預期,股價一度大跌,但仍獲分析師?場,指預計其投資會帶動高回報率。

大塊頭教授聳聳肩道:「Amazon一直在賣一個意念,就是他們會繼續增長,但他們同時繼續還債不力。債務一直還不清,最終會招來競爭。所以我始終想不明白,競爭為何不會令他們逐出巿場?這還不是泡沫嗎……真想不明白。」

----------------------------------

香港人17歲不發力就完蛋

被奉為價值投資法權威的Greenwald教授是一名「四十後」,今年64歲的他,在哥倫比亞這家美國長春藤大學執教20載,見盡了X、Y、Z世代的傑出小輩。當香港人似乎很熱衷批評八十、九十後如何不濟時,這位大塊頭Guru卻寬容相待;他打從心底歎喟,香港人迫得孩子太緊了,大器其實也可晚成。

Greenwald的腿不好走路,拄住拐杖的他跟記者漫步校園時,左手要重重地搭在我的肩膊借力。我倆步伐一致的相互配合走?,我心裏緊張得「左右左右」的念念有辭,生怕會叫他絆倒。反倒是教授或許早習慣了讓別人攙扶,故閒閒的一臉從容。

沿路經過大學圖書館門前一排石階,十來個年輕人圍坐?,笑聲似一連串銀鈴,背景是萬里晴空。記者向他問道:「你覺得大學校園裏,有一個很好的國際學生比例嗎?」

好大學趨難考競爭激烈

他點頭笑說:「Terrific!Terrific mix of different countries, of different interest!雖然我多數接觸商學院的學生,但據我所知,美國長春藤大學這麼些年來,研究院都沒有提高新生學額,惟海外學生、女生等的比例,卻幾乎高了3倍,可見好的大學是愈來愈難考入了,競爭非常激烈。」

學術成就很高的大塊頭教授,年輕時畢業於麻省理工學院,主修電機工程,及後於普林斯頓大學取得兩個碩士學位,才又折返麻省理工攻讀經濟學博士。回憶起30多年前的大學生活,宛如喚醒了他一些沉默多年的思緒,興致勃勃的就要講自己的糗事。

Greenwald打一個哈哈說:「當年我在MIT讀學士時,拿很多F的,也取了不少D級,GPA是3.3,但已經是全級的Top 10%!」

「不過……」,吞一吞口水,他一臉讚嘆的道:「你知道嗎,昨日我跟我的研究助理吃飯,他在這裏讀書,告訴我他的GPA有3.95!說得簡單一點,他這個讀書生涯裏,最差也只是拿過幾個A-而已!」

這一代學生的出色表現,連這位名校教授也自愧不如。當香港人普遍認為新生代愈趨幸福,或對八十、九十後諸多批評的時候,Greenwald卻說:「這一輩人不能輕易犯錯,社會不容許他們犯錯了,因為叻人太多,只要稍一失手,成功的就是另一人。所以我覺得他們每一個都極為勤奮、極為專注,我替他們難受呢!」

美國社會包容孩子成長

雖然競爭熾烈得叫教授也看不過眼,但他始終認為美國社會整體氣氛包容,能有充裕空間接納孩子不同的成長步伐。他舉例說,在美國你可以讓自己沉淪至35歲才發力,只要你保留後勁就行了,「你看,小布殊一直酗酒,直到35歲才酒醒,最後還不是當上總統了!」

說完他抿抿嘴巴,皺起眉頭,輕輕的道:「在香港、在中國,如果你17歲時搞砸了,考不上好大學,你的一生就玩完了吧?」

記者心裏嘀咕,在香港17歲也太遲了吧,大概7歲時考不上名校,都幾乎要完蛋了。

Greenwald接?道:「在美國你28歲才覺醒考上大學,短期來說自是很徬徨,彷彿比人家走慢了。但美國文化讓你心底知道自己依然有Second chance,很多可能性,就會有一種特殊的氣氛包容你努力和成長。」

到最後,有人要用上這個酌情的機會才能成熟,當然也有早慧的人根本用不?這個額外的第二次,然而,只要他們都覺得可能性永遠存在,生命顯然已經大為不同了,「這製造了一個更加愉快的環境,你的天空更加廣闊。亦由於此,美國學府這麼多年來,仍然沒有給其他崛起國家的大學取代,而每一年仍有這麼多對自己國家忠心耿耿(tremendous loyalty)的中國學生要千里迢迢來讀書。畢業後我問他們要回國嗎,他們的答案也總是:Not if I can help it。」

與李祿的師徒情

《華爾街日報》最近一篇文章,爆出曾為六四學運領袖、現仍位列中國通緝名單上的李祿,或將成股神巴菲特的接班人,引起了全球對這個當年跟柴玲和吾爾開希並肩天安門廣場的人的無限興趣。

六四後李祿被通緝,流亡美國,1993年獲哥倫比亞大學取錄,師承Greenwald教授。一天他聽了一場股神巴菲特在哥大開講的演說,極受啟發,鋪成了他今日的黃金路。李祿曾說,哥大是他人生的新起點,而那一場講座卻開啟了他的事業生涯。而當日講座的搞手,便是眼前這位大塊頭教授。

Greenwald坦言這位前學生已成為他的老朋友,他甚至是李祿的欽佩者(Admirer),也是李祿管理的基金的投資者。不過按老朋友的意願,他不會公開評論其點滴。

而李祿在那次的演講會後,幾乎買了所有有關巴菲特的書籍研讀,兩年之後買入了人生第一手股票。3年之後的1996年,也即是距離六四事件不過8年,李祿自哥大經濟學、法律學及MBA畢業,成為哥大史上以最短時間修畢最多學位的人。

﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏

Bruce Greenwald 64歲

˙哥倫比亞大學Robert Heilbrunn Centre for Graham & Dodd Investing 主管及商學院教授

˙獲大學最佳教授及教學獎,其教授科目如價值投資法、經濟策略行為、全球化巿場等極受哥大學生歡迎,每每爆滿

˙?有多本書籍,其中《Value Investing︰ From Graham to Buffett and Beyond》被翻繹為多種語文

˙1978年 麻省理工學院經濟學博士

˙1969年 普林斯頓大學公共及國際關係碩士及電機工程系碩士

˙1967年 麻省理工學院電機工程系學士

˙曾先後任職於美國預算局、花旗銀行前身First National City Bank、實驗室及政府機關;並先後任教於衛斯理大學和哈佛大學
華爾街 華爾 Guru 探尋 李祿 祿巴 菲特 黃金 理論
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=270561

周顯﹕比亞迪‧李祿‧向華勝

1 : GS(14)@2016-02-02 15:31:34

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/fin ... mnist/en30_en30.htm


【明報專訊】那天胡思亂想,想到了好多的事情,先是想到中國動力控股(0476),這股票我在兩年前買過,贏了錢,但嫌高位沽得不多,贏得不夠喉。想到這隻電動車股票,不由得想到另一隻國產電動車的龍頭股比亞迪(1211),我沒有買過這股票,但推介過給朋友K君,他贏了幾百萬元,從此奉我為股神……直至我另外推介了幾隻毒瘤股票給他,輸了他不少錢,我的反駁是,個市從兩萬四插到一萬六千,是個市衰,唔關我事!

想到比亞迪,便想到巴菲特,又想到介紹巴菲特入股比亞迪的李祿。我和李祿見過兩次,是向華勝介紹的,話說當年「六四事件」之後,大量民運分子逃到香港,作為轉逃到歐美的中轉站,是為之「黃雀行動」,向華勝正是組織的中心人物之一。

未入股齊贏錢成憾事

所以,他也可以說是李祿的救命恩人,李祿為了感恩,來香港時常常找他。由於李祿的身分特殊,見面時,往往找一間僻靜的K房,尖沙嘴星雅廊之類,我們三人在K房內,通常李祿是搶咪之王,因為他在美國完全沒有機會去唱K,因此回到香港時,老虎搏命去唱中國的老歌。

他唱得很不錯,不過,我的心裏卻老是在想,勝哥為何不找他入股勝哥的股票,必然爆升數十倍,我少說也可贏幾千萬,勝哥則贏幾十億,豈不快哉!只可惜一直沒有成事。

一直想將勝哥的生平軼事寫出來,他在生時,為免影響到他,不方便寫,他初仙去,也不方便抽水,留待現在才寫。我想,寫亡友的事,也許並非為了亡友,而是為了自己的人生留一個記錄。

[周顯 投資二三事]
周顯 比亞 李祿 華勝
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=294996

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