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2010目標

2011年2月完成渣打半馬

2010年12月的日本語能力試驗四級合格 (咁都當目標? 請恥笑)

年底前找到新工作

每月一篇讀書筆記

每月至少一篇投資筆記

 

高盛看好香港銀行股及渣打 (19 Jun 2010)

(News / Report consolidated by www.redmonkey.hk)

(節錄自香港經濟日報)

高盛昨日發表報告表示，根據金管局數字，今年4月，本地貸款按年升15.1%，按月升4.5%，由年初至今升了10.2%；當中，香港用途的貸款增長顯著加快，4月份，按年升13.9%，按月升5%。

高盛指，近月貸款增長步伐加快，而並非由按揭帶動，而是建造項目、投資、零售、批發、貿易等貸款。就算樓市放慢，貸款增長步伐料受影響有限。

高盛因此調高了今年本地上市銀行股貸款增長預測，由原來的9.9%升至14.4%。

近期同業拆息上升，利好銀行的淨利息收益率（NIM），近年NIM備受收窄的壓力，獲得紓緩。

高盛表示，隨着內地信貸開始收緊，銀行在中國相關貸款的議價能力提升，亦利好NIM。

基於貸款增長加快、NIM較原預期理想，高盛將本地銀行股2010年撥備前經營溢利增長，由原先25%上調至36%；稅後溢利增長預測由原先21%加快至 32%。


多家大行推薦渣打(2888)，理由其實可以由三點概括，如下︰

1. 夥農行拓內地市場

渣打日前與農行於北京簽署《戰略合作備忘錄》，建立戰略合作夥伴關係。

兩銀行將共同開拓中國及全球業務發展機會，特別是個人銀行、企業銀行產品及服務，並注重亞洲區及亞非貿易通道，致力幫助中國企業運用國際資本市場和金融市場產品，香港已被定為雙方開始合作可能的試點地區。

渣打集團主席莊貝思（John Peace）指，農行是「長期的合作夥伴」，兩行合作有助於渣打在大中華地區增強品牌和業務營運。農行董事長項俊波則指，與渣打合作，有利於兩行發揮國內外市場上的互補優勢。

事實上，由於農行網點覆蓋內地城鄉縣域最廣泛，渣打可藉兩行合作，進一步拓展中國市場。渣打日前公布，該行內地首季貸款按年增長約30%。

除簽署合作備忘外，市傳渣打為農行H股的基礎投資者，認購最多5億美元（38.9億港元）股份。

2. 歐債危機影響較低

歐債危機未完全消散，市場擔心危機會拖累國際銀行盈利。不過，渣打於歐美市場只佔09年度稅前溢利7.3%，受歐債危機影響較低。

相反，渣打主力新興市場業務，可受惠於新興市場經濟復甦。

3. 高盛唱好

高盛昨日發表報告，看好渣打，目標價由235元調高至241元，評級為「買入」。

高盛指，渣打的吸引力高於滙豐，原因是其業務較集中於亞太區，較能受惠於該區的經濟復甦。

高盛指，除香港及馬來西亞外，渣打於亞太區國家的貸款市佔率，均高於滙豐。

高盛指，新興市場中，印度已成渣打盈利主要來源，預期今、日兩年來自印度的稅前盈利，將分別再升10%及20%，至11.7億及14.09億美元。

高盛估計，渣打於香港的貸款增長不俗，今、明兩年分別再增長15%及13%，而2009至12 年間的營業額及盈利複合增長率，分別有10%及16%。高盛指渣打估值低，其預測PB現時為1.61倍，低於歷史平均的2.2倍水平。

高盛指，渣打將於6月28日發表最新營運狀況，料渣打增長勢頭持續，因商業銀行業務增長及個人銀行業務持續反彈。高盛預期渣打今年個人銀行及商業銀行的稅前盈利，將增58.8%及9.1%，至13.77億及44.47億美元（見表4）。

除高盛外，其他大行亦看好渣打，如瑞信便給予目標價234元

[轉載些文化東西]沈旭暉專欄﹕黃興桂球評 被忽略的全球化現象( 2010-06-14 )(體育世界)

【咫尺地球】筆者由於為有線電視主持世界盃政治的環節，不少朋友以為會遇上傳奇足球評述員黃興桂，其實，我們的時間是不會交接的，但這卻意外讓筆者發現，原來社會對「桂神」的二元評價，比對布殊(相關)反恐和政改方案更極端﹕有球迷託筆者帶藥到錄影廠把他毒啞，「挽救整個世界盃」；也有不看足球的女性朋友成為「桂迷」，高呼「沒有黃興桂的比賽就不是波」。

為什麼會這樣？原因必須從國際關係的高度解讀﹕無論我們是否喜歡黃興桂，也不得不承認，曾長期在美國和新加坡生活的他，比其他本土評述員擁有國際視野。傳統港式球評不是資料數據式、就是茶餐廳吹水式，唯獨「桂評」結合英式和拉丁式兩大流派，在這個「亞洲國際都會」，顯得格格不入。兩大流派的發展，有其特定社會時空背景，黃興桂把風格同步移植在香港，能否有如全裸變出白兔的魔術師，絕對見仁見智。

英式球評傳統是簡潔，沒有廢話，不帶立場。每有球員觸球，只會讀出球員名字，直到真正的（注意，是「真正的」）關鍵，才加插精煉評論。筆者讀書時，曾聽名宿連尼加評論英格蘭對德國，最終英格蘭獲勝，他才冷冷的說﹕「作為專業人士，我知道不能表露情感，但容許我慶祝一聲，Yes！」僅此而已。黃興桂常在兩場比賽之間，甚至在同一比賽內180度改變對球員的評價，在英國人心目中，卻可算是不帶感情的「專業」。


「廢話」金句哲理勝過時評

這樣的風格，固然與英國內斂的民族性有關，也假定了任何英國人都是足球專家，毋須額外評論纏擾。更重要的是，英國由英女王開始，提倡超然、工作時不帶感情的專業精神﹕足球作為國技，被認為應反映民族性。小報愈是不放過球星，評述愈冷靜。由於惜字如金，英式評論產生了大量好像很有哲理的金句。著名英國球評Barry Davies有如此代表作傳世﹕「If it had gone in, it would have been a goal」，足以和「桂評」的「今場波邊隊能夠入一粒先，嗰隊就會有優勢」輝映。兩大金句也許都是廢話，但鑽入牛角尖，卻哲理無限，可以解釋為「結果比過程重要的管理型人生觀」，起碼比「曾蔭權(相關)在辯論表現出色就會增加支持度」一類時評，予人思考空間。

英式評論又喜歡使用相關語，即「食字」，偶爾含義不文，例如﹕「Julian Dicks is everywhere. It's like they've got eleven Dicks on the field」。這教人想起日前「桂評」新金句﹕身裁矮小的墨西哥守門員除了有龍門柱這個「好朋友」，還「很短」。


英式風格結合拉丁口味

一般球評有了英式風格，就不可能結合拉丁風格，除了黃興桂。拉丁球評可說是英式的對立，完全是個人表演，無論多沉悶的比賽，球評都會抑揚頓挫不斷發聲，而沒有實質內容。球星由後場帶球到前場，拉丁球評就會以超低音頻喃喃一分鐘說那個球員的名字，中邪般「美斯美斯美斯美斯……」；到了入球，又連續一分鐘大叫「goal」，又或「gol-gol-gol」、「goalaaaaazo」等不同變種。這堆毫無意義的發音，就是「神奇、頂級、超卓、有今生、無來世」的原型。

拉丁球評激情澎拜，除了因為拉丁語系崇尚進攻足球，也有其社會背景。按黃興桂的邏輯，拉美語區有三種「不同」社會問題，分別是無財富、不富有和金錢少，需要通過足球讓國民發泄，看不起歐洲那講求戰術、謹謹慎慎的小家子氣風格。沉悶的比賽，肩負了宣泄的社會功能，球評若把比賽如實反映，反而變成不專業。這流派不但主導西班牙、中南美洲，也征服了美國，因為美國球迷多是來自墨西哥的拉丁後裔﹐把拉丁球評引入美國﹐成了他們在英語國家的身分認同。假如有人說「呢球有機會呀吓，因為係角球嚟」，拉丁球迷會擔心這是身分的背叛。


桂式全球在地化

在地球，也許唯獨「神級」的黃興桂，想到結合對立的兩大球評體系，這不得不算是全球化時代一大特色，打破了「十二碼一係入一係唔入」的黃金定律。桂式全球化結合還帶有本土色彩，「蔗渣嘅價錢踢出燒鵝嘅味道」，創意令英評拉丁評甘拜下風，可見他還是全球在地化先驅。說到底，和其他港式世界盃娛樂環節相比，「桂神」登場，還是可以分辨什麼是國際視野的。問題是，全球化、全球在地化從來極具爭議性，無論從意識形態還是欣賞角度，都讓人愛恨分明，愛者極愛，恨者極恨。特區全球化的通識教材，不但要將「桂評」列為必修，也應邀請黃興桂擔任客席教師，因為只有他有資格和勇氣說﹕「球迷們，全球化就是這樣的！」

美國布魯金斯智庫訪問學人、香港教育學院社會科學系副教授 沈旭暉

[轉] 郎咸平：2010年中国经济的三大困境(金融經濟)

前言﹕挺認同這位學者之言﹐坊間少有的有腦又有良心之言(至少這一篇文章如是)﹐值得一讀。


(短片﹕滯漲在即﹐怨氣更盛﹐是時候唱這首歌了。)

2009年是不平凡的一年，中国的经济面临的问题不是什么时候见底，而是见底之后怎么办，见底之后我们凭什么再次拉动经济复苏。

我从来不预言的，但是我不得不提醒大家，2010年的经济是不容乐观的。我之所以这么讲，都是有根据的。中国经济发展的几驾马车还有哪一辆能拉得起来？消费这一驾马车，我不用说大家心里都清清楚楚的，老百姓哪敢消费！用什么去消费？这一驾马车已经跑不动了。

出口，讲出口就不得不讲奥巴马。这个家伙给我们带来的是贸易大战、汇率大战和成本大战。这三个大战之后，我们的出口马车还能跑多远。现在还有一驾马车拉着中国经济向前走，那就是基础建设。世界上没有哪一个国家能靠持续的投资基础建设发展成为经济强国的。在其它两驾马车跑不动的前提下，靠基础建设把经济拉动起来，是昙花一现。

更惨的是经济不发展的情况下，还有通货膨胀！看看你身边的东西，除了工资其它的都涨了。你们的水费涨了吧，你们的燃气涨了吧，你们炒菜的油涨了吧，就连你们早已经买不起的房子还是涨了吧，美国利用他们的“低碳美元”，还要收你们的呼吸税。你认为这种现象明年会得到改变吗？如果你认为会，请你告诉我理由，我要跟你学习一下，因为以我郎咸平教授的本事目前还看不出明年会得到改变！

还有一个最要命的。大家想想，国内消费这一驾马车跑不动，出口本来就拉不动，再加上奥巴马同志发动三大战役，前景很惨淡的。在这种情况之下，我们把大量的资源集中起来进行基础建设，在西部建起了公路，这些公路建起来又没有车跑，形成产能过剩。

你想想，把资源集中起来搞基础建设，而搞基础建设的基本上都是国企，这些国企一方面占据了资源，另一方面占据了资金，中小企业没有从中得到好处。在这样的情况下他们会干什么？

他们不会投资实体经济了，因为投资之后得不到资金的支持，又得不到好的项目，放在银行又有通货膨胀，没有办法了，只有炒楼炒股、买高档消费品。

国家政策倾向楼市，他们就炒楼。国家政策倾向股市，他们就炒股。这种现象从今年暴涨的楼市可见一斑，尤其是那些中小企业密集倒闭的地区，其楼价的涨幅更是惊人。投资楼市既不要付太多工人的工资，又不用那么累。

这些企业家还就真那么做了，这样一来的结果就是使得解决中国70%以上就业的民营经济所雇佣员工大幅减少，老百姓一失业，就更不敢花钱了，老百姓的消费提高不起来，那中国的第一驾马车还是跑不动。而奥巴马同志的三大战役也只是才开始，所以这种恶性循环的结果就是使得投资环境进一步恶化，然后又回过头来制造资产泡沫。

我真心希望中国在这次全球性的危机中能够安然度过，希望我的预言是错的，真的，如果我错了，最起码大家的日子就会好过一些。（郎咸平）

東岳2010十大成就

1、东岳离子膜成功应用于万吨氯碱生产装置。2010年6月30日，东岳离子膜成功应用于万吨氯碱生产装置，实现了离子膜国产化替代和市场化应用，彻底结束了我国氯碱行业长期受制于人的历史。离子膜项目荣获山东省技术发明一等奖。 2、集团圆满完成年度目标任务。集团先后发动了二季度“生产会战”、“争百亿会战”、“创三新”竞赛和“管好两个现场、抓好两个市场”活动。在全体干部员工的共同努力下，集团顺利完成了年度各项经营指标，经营水平创历史新高。 3、集团股票市值过百亿。在良好的经营业绩和高科技成果消息面支撑下，集团股票成为年度港股表现最好的股票之一，年内上涨223%,股票市值超过百亿。 4、集团成功举办2011产业链合作年会。2010年11月18日-20日，集团在海南三亚举办“品牌共享，携手共赢”东岳集团2011产业链合作年会，会议发布了集团“十二五”发展规划，与美的、格力、海信等十家重点客户建成了战略合作关系，此次会议进一步提高了东岳的市场地位和品牌形象。 5、集团得到各级党委政府强力支持。国务院副总理李克强、张德江分别做出批示支持离子膜国产化推广；离子膜和氟硅材料被列为“七大战略性新兴产业”重点支持对象。市委、市政府在集团召开加快东岳发展专题会议，提出了“打造全球膜材料基地，争创世界级品牌公司，建设千亿级园区”的发展目标，并设立了正县级园区管委会，照单全收解决了事关东岳发展的7个问题。 6、张建宏董事长被树立为重大宣传典型。作为市委市政府确定的重大宣传典型，淄博日报、淄博晚报、淄博电视台、淄博电台、鲁中晨报等媒体大规模对张建宏董事长的创业事迹进行了报道，在社会上引起了强烈反响。 7、集团人才理念和人才机制倍受关注。继李克强副总理、李源潮部长同时充分肯定东岳人才理念和人才机制后，中组部领导在焦点访谈接受采访时专门讲到东岳的人才理念，省委书记姜异康在人民日报撰文，将东岳这一人才理念上升为全省的人才理念，《中国人事报》整版刊文介绍了集团人才创新机制，国内各大媒体全方位介绍东岳人才创新经验。 8、集团年度10大项目相继顺利投产。10月1日，投资6.5亿元的有机硅二期工程投入生产，至此，集团确定的10大项目全部投入生产，为集团百亿目标的实现和园区产业升级提供了强力支撑。 9、张永明博士荣获“全国劳动模范”。4月27日，2010年全国劳动模范和先进工作者表彰大会在北京人民大会堂举行，集团研究院副院长、首席科学家张永明博士荣获“全国劳动模范”，受到胡锦涛、吴邦国、温家宝、贾庆林、李长春、习近平、李克强、贺国强、周永康等党和国家领导人亲切接见。 10、“东岳三号”获国际编号，成为制冷剂替代主力军。经过两年测试、验证和评审，集团自主研发的新型节能环保制冷剂东岳三号DYR-3通过美国供暖制冷空调工程师学会（ASHRAE）审查，成功获取国际编号R439A，并获得中国发明专利优秀奖。该产品年度实现销售收入1.62亿元，是上年销售额的22倍，成为制冷剂替代的主力军。

資料來源: 東岳官方網站

李祿談投資 (2010哥倫比亞大學演講摘要)

從六四民運學生領袖到成功投資家，李祿的經歷都幾傳奇性。 這令我想起剛看完的電影“中國合伙人“， 中國改革開放這時代巨輪改寫了很多人的命運， 而這都是他們事前無法預料及想象得到。
看過李祿在哥倫比亞大學演講後，感覺他的投資功力果然深厚， 難怪芒格和巴菲特比願意給錢他投資。以下是那次演講摘要,有點長,但絕對值得一看 (筆者嘗試把一部份重點做了underline,希望有所幫助).

Bruce Greenwald: Warren Buffett says that when he retires, there are three people he would like to manage his money. First is Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group, who you will hear from later in the course. Next is Greg Alexander of the Sequoia Fund. Third is Li Lu. He happens to manage all of Charlie Munger’s money. I have a small investment with him and in four years it is up 400%.

[Applause]

Li Lu: Columbia is where my whole life in America started. I could barely speak the language. In Columbia it was where I had a new life. It was really in the Value Investing class where I got my career start. I was really worried about my student loan debt at the time and a friend told me about this class and said I need to see a lecture from Warren Buffett.

What I heard that night changed my life. He said three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

Those were three powerful concepts. I had never viewed the stock market like that. I viewed it negatively as a place made up of manipulators who were lining their own pockets. I embarked on an intensive two year study learning everything about Buffett.

Two years after that I bought my first stock. After I graduated I worked at an investment bank for a year and realized it was a mistake. I tried to start a fund but I didn’t have a track record. The first year I managed money I lost 19%.

Being a value investor means you look at the downside before looking at the upside. Before becoming an investor you need to look at how you can fail at this game. There are all sorts of ways you can fail. You need to examine who you are and see if you could be good at it. If you could ever find something you can do well that you really like — that will be your best investment. You will do better than competitors. If you can do it with intrinsic passion, that really over time will add enormous value to you.

Back to the game of investing. This concept of margin of safety is an essential concept to be a good investor. The future is unpredictable, you will always be dealt surprises, some positive most negative. You need to build in a level of safety so that whatever happens, you will not get crushed. If you can really successfully know what you are getting into, you can pretty much navigate.

Most people are troubled by what they don’t know. The world is divided by those who know and those who don’t know. If you really know — you will not pull triggers like Wall St. traders. If you are truly intellectually honest, you would not do anything.

This class teaches you to know what you are getting into, especially accepting what things you don’t know. The game of investment is really continuous learning. Everything affects an investment, it constantly changes. You are not investing in the past but the accumulative cash flow of the future. You have to want to find a certain set up where you can know something that most people don’t know. There are plenty of things I don’t know but they don’t factor into the purchase because I am using a huge margin of safety.

Buying a dollar at 50 cents. So if things turn against you, you will be okay. That is not easy. This business is brutally competitive. It is so impossible to know everything and know exactly what is going to happen to a business from now till the end that you really have to accept that what you don’t know.

Finding an edge really only comes from a right frame of mind and years of continuous study. But when you find those insights along the road of study, you need to have the guts and courage to back up the truck and ignore the opinions of everyone else. To be a better investor, you have to stand on your own. You just can’t copy other people’s insights. Sooner or later, the position turns against you. If you don’t have any insights into the business, when it goes from $100 to $50 you aren’t going to know if it will back to $100 or $200.

So this is really difficult, but on the other hand, the rewards are huge. Warren says that if you only come up with 10 good investments in your 40 year career, you will be extraordinarily rich. That’s really what it is. This shows how different value investing is than any other subject.

So how do you really understand and gain that great insight? Pick one business. Any business. And truly understand it. I tell my interns to work through this exercise – imagine a distant relative passes away and you find out that you have inherited 100% of a business they owned. What are you going to do about it? That is the mentality to take when looking at any business. I strongly encourage you to start and understand 1 business, inside out. That is better than any training possible. It does not have to be a great business, it could be any business.

You need to be able to get a feel for how you would do as a 100% owner. If you can do that, you will have a tremendous leg up against the competition. Most people don’t take that first concept correctly and it is quite sad. People view it as a piece of paper and just trade because it is easy to trade. But if it was a business you inherited, you would not be trading. You would really seek out knowledge on how it should be run, how it works. If you start with that, you will eventually know how much that business is worth.

When I started in the business in 1997, it was in the middle of the Asian Financial Crisis. A few years later there was the Internet bubble. A couple years ago was the Great Crash of 2007 – 2008. They are billed as once in a century disasters but happen every few years. Every time it goes against you, your net worth or value of your investments might go down 50%. This is really where that insight and temperament comes in.

In a sense, you have to have a certain confidence in your own judgement and not be swayed by other people’s views.It is not easy. But that is life. It is just a given. It happens to everyone. Berkshire had at least 3 times when the stock went down 50%. It happened to Carnegie. It happened to Rockefeller. It happens to everyone. If you really made a mistake, it would not stop at 50% but go to 0.

This happens to even mighty companies. Look at the top 50 companies in America every 10 years. By the time 20-40 years go by, 2/3rds of them will be gone. By the time it goes to 100 years, there might be only a couple left. It’s just the way it is. Look at what happened to the once mighty General Motors. So thats why I’m saying is, investing is a continuous learning process because your investments are constantly changing

So for those of you that have curiosity and the temperament, this game couldn’t be better. Capitalism rewards people who are talented at capital allocator. So if you have the aptitude and temperament, it is the great game. If you don’t have that then I urge you not to go and become a nuisance. That is really what Wall Street did, they don’t really create anything they just move money around.

Letting the financial industry get too big is bad for the economy, it is just as bad as getting addicted to casinos, drugs, and alcohol. None of them are really useful, they just transfer wealth. That is what I think happened on Wall Street over the last several decades. So avoid being harmful.

With that I am open to questions.

Q: Mohnish Pabrai recently spoke about his reluctance about investing in China due to the multiple accounting books / the possibility of fraud. How do you deal with this given your own investments in China?

Li Lu: Well, you know I think he is right. Every thing has an exception though. Just because a next door neighbor is a fraud doesn’t mean you are. That is one question to ask— whether you can trust the accounting and people running the business. That can have a huge impact on the business. I suggest you spend a lot of time looking at these factors, especially if you are investing for the long haul.

Q: Why did you decide to go into venture capital? How is that different than your other investing?

Li Lu: I always had this bent that I want to build a real business. I started a venture and it was really a lot of fun. Overall, it is a tougher game than simply investing in securities because you have to evolve to the day to day changes in operations and it is just not as easy to build great businesses. Every generation has a handful of great businesses that come from no where and come to dominate their fields.

It is much more rewarding as an investor to pick those. Also, you are more likely to find managers much more capable than yourself. Overall, I learned a lot. I learned a lot in how businesses succeed and how businesses fail. It really was a lot of fun. I probably carried it too far — I eventually ran one of the businesses and it was of course a mistake.

Q: I read that when you look at an industry, you look at the most miserable failures of that industry to see whether you will invest in it. Can you talk a bit about that?

Li Lu: It goes back to understanding the business. Once you have that understanding you can extend it to understanding an industry. A certain industry might have characteristics that make it different than others. In certain industries you might have better prospects than others. Find the best of the players in the industry and the worst players.

And see how they perform over time. And if the worst players perform reasonably well relative to the great players — that tells you something about the characteristics about the industry. That is not always the case but it is often the case. Certain industries are better than others.

So if you can understand a business inside out you can then eventually extend that to understanding an industry. If you can get that insight, it is enormously beneficial. If you can then concentrate that on a business with superior economics in an industry with superior economics with good management and you get them at the right price — the chances are that you can stay for a very long time.

Q: Did you have any specific example?

Li Lu: I have studied many over the years. As I have said, don’t copy other people’s insights because it doesn’t work. Automobiles are amazing. If you look at the early days it started with several players and concentrated with just a few players that became enormously profitable. Then they became miserable. You then see how the life cycle turns with new automakers in China and India. Everything has a reason.

If you want a good idea — look at General Motors from the early days, look every 5 years and see how the performance metrics change. The Graham and Dodd Center should collect all the data and perform some kind of commentary on it.

Bruce Greenwald:Do you want me to give you the answer to that? In the 1960s, their return on capital was 46%. In the 1970s their return on capital was 28%. In the 1980s it was 9% in the 1990s it was 6%. You want to guess how negative it is now?

Li Lu: So that is really fascinating. If you have that data, the amount of insight that would yield would be astonishing. So instead of just accepting the conventional wisdom that the auto business is bad — that is just not true. Or if you say well those guys just unbelievable money machines — that is not true either. So if you can really examine those statistics and understand it that will give you an advantage for analyzing new situations like in China and India. That is really what turns me on. Understanding this gives you a tremendous leg up.

Q: I wanted to ask you about BYD. I heard that you thought it was important for them to introduce a model to the US and wanted to know why you thought that.

Li Lu: That might be a better question to ask the BYD chairman than myself. Well, If you are just talking about electric vehicles, you know the key — the heart and soul of the electric vehicle age the heart is the battery. There is the battery, electric motor, and the electric control control panel. The electric motor has been there for 100 years, control system is software that can be improved over time.

The battery is really where you get the biggest appreciation and is what determines the value of the electric vehicle. 100 years before the Model-T was introduced, the competition between electric vehicles and gasoline was not nearly as optimistic. Up and till then, 1/3rd of cars being produced were electric. It wasn’t until Rockefeller got oil extracted easily enough that it worked. Henry Ford was able to make the internal combustion work even though it wasted 85% of the energy. He was able to build the engine and produce automobiles that were cheap enough for people to buy and it took off. That is where you find the real winners.

Now, years later, we know that the way that oil is burned contributes to global warming. If it continues, the planet might still be here but all the human beings might not. Human beings have only been on the planet for a tiny bit of the earth’s history. So there are all sorts of good reasons for electric cars. Battery development has advanced so much that it is now comparable to the price and performance of traditional cars. So now with the help of companies like BYD, the balance is about to tilt towards where performance and price are getting to the level that makes them a desirable alternative. It will be desirable everywhere. Eventually, if you have a car that does all that, it will be sold everywhere.

Q: What about BYD versus others in the industry?

Li Lu: The market will determine that.

Q: Yeah – but why BYD versus others?

Li Lu: Well because we also studied all those other guys. We will see when the winner emerges whether we are right or wrong.

Q: Right – but what did you look at to reach that view?

Li Lu: There are a lot of people who have worked over 100 years making great cars. The technology for building a traditional car has been refined enough to where it can be learned in a short period. The place we are still seeing a curve of continuous rapid improvement is with the batteries for cars.

Whoever is leading the charge will have a major advantage. There is really only one company that is a leader in battery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing. There is only one company. To put this together you need a Ford to put that together. So far those two elements need to be put together. It is not an easy process.

Q: So you went to BYD in 2005 and then you brought Berkshire as well. I saw that you sold a small amount of your BYD position at the end of last year. Was it just rebalancing? Can I just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

Li Lu: Actually I started my BYD position in 2002. I sold a small amount of shares because an investor of mine had an emergency redemption.

Q: We read your profile online. I had a question –do you have any problems when trying to invest in China?

Li Lu: Yeah I do have some difficulty. I did not really see a factory plant at BYD until the end of 2008. I really did not have a better understanding till then. That really causes you to question what it is before you make an investment. With investing, you have to work with imperfect information because you are buying a piece of the future. I did not really get a chance to get more information because the problem in Asia till much later but it did not stop me from making my investment decision.

So there is a point, where if you have enough margin of safety– that is why I kept coming back to the elementary concept of margin of safety– you can allow much more uncertainty and unknowns. So the answer of the question is does that stop you from making the investment? No.

Q: So I did some research on lithium ion batteries, and I saw that BYD has a manufacturing advantage with consumer batteries. But I saw that automobile batteries are much more complex. I did not think that the idea of a good consumer battery manufacturer + an automobile maker made much sense. So when Buffett looked at the stock maybe it was a better deal but today it is this dream of vehicles that is really priced in. It does not feel like a good value investor stock. So why would you own it today?

Li Lu: Well that is interesting. One of the most fascinating things about being an investor is that surprises are part of the game. When you get into situations like BYD, you see lots of good surprises. Chuanfu and his team have this fabulous culture, everything people thought they knew turned out to be a few years late. He got into battery manufacturing in that particular way because he really had no other option. He had no money, he only had $300,000 in venture capital funding before IPO and that was it.

He raised money in an IPO and Buffett gave him $200M, now they have 160,000 employees. $6-7B in revenues, $500M in net profit. It is amazing. So he has this ability to adapt in a competitive environment. He has demonstrated that ability again again and again. The way he does automation is far cheaper than anyone else and more reliable.

He continues to surprise me with his ingenuity, to figure out ways to do something better than everyone else. What he is currently doing is very different than what everyone else has done. At the end of the day, you might look at what he has done.

So how do you look at it as an investor with imperfect information? Well I suggest you look at what he has accomplished. 8 years ago I had no idea they would go into the automobile or laptop or cellphone battery business. So that demonstrates how he is. This investment is not easy to understand because it is changing so fast, at such a large scale. An almost unheard of speed. Their manufacturing capabilities will double soon.

This year they will hire 10,000 college graduates, 8 or 9 thousand engineers. The scale is almost unparalleled. So this is why the study of history, of all the great corporations will give you a good insight in seeing what will happen with BYD. I suggested that we start with GM and analyze its performance every 5 years for 100 years to understand at least one aspect of BYD’s business.

Q: One investor came in and said talking to management is a waste of time. They will say what you want them to say. Obviously it sounds like you don’t agree with that. What do you think? Will you pay a premium for a business with a moat?

Li Lu: There is no general rule. The key in investing is to know what you know and know what you don’t know. You can know about management teams without meeting with them. Every situation is slightly different. So I come back to the point that if you know enough on other things that there is enough margin of safety. Even if you meet with management, you may not learn something. Obviously, actions speak louder.

You want to see what they have done. Everything being equal, the more you know about management, the more honest and upfront they are, the more motive they have, the better the situation is and the deeper the discount. You have to analyze it all. The key to analyzing it is you have to ask: do I really know what I think I know, do I really know what I don’t know? If you can’t answer that question, chances are you are gambling.

Q: What kind of preparation do you do before meeting a management team?

Li Lu: I don’t really have a set method. Because I usually am just curious about the business and don’t know a lot. So you are prepared and not prepared. If you are really curious, you want to learn more and study it more. When working at a hedge fund or mutual fund, you are expected to learn a business in one week. You can’t truly understand everything about a business in one week.

It took me 10 years and I am still learning new things about BYD. It is a continuous learning process. You could spend a lifetime studying a business or industry, but in a few seconds I can tell you whether or not I like it. You want to build knowledge by continually learning. There is not set preparation.

Q: Recently, Jim Chanos gave us his thesis on the China Syndrome with there possibly being a bubble.

Li Lu: Well, it is too big of a question for me. I don’t know

Q: 20 years ago you said you challenged conventional wisdom in China. Out of curiosity, in terms of value investing what do you challenge in the conventional wisdom?

Li Lu: Well, the fundamental philosophy of value investing is very sound. Its basically the three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

That is really an intelligent approach. So therefore any intelligent investing is really value investing. There is a certain level of intellectual honesty. If you have all that insight going into analyzing businesses I don’t have any arguments with it.

Q: What is your point of view on long / short positions in value investing?

Li Lu: The most profitable kind of investing is long term investing. You want to allow the time that it might take because you don’t know when the market will catch on. If you can find a business with good management with good industry fundamentals blowing it forward, you have a good opportunity and you can save money on taxes.

A short cannot be a fundamentally long term position. In the long game, the upside is unlimited. Your downside is 100%. In shorting it is opposite. Shorting is also essentially borrowing, so you need money and time on your side. If time is not on your side, you can be right but lose all your money.

The best kind of short usually has some kind of fraud. In those situations, management is determined to keep the fraud. Look at Bernie Madoff, 20 years time. You cannot afford to borrow money for 20 years. So shorting is a short term game. When those positions go against you, there is huge leverage that can utterly crush you.

In theory, long / short is okay, but if you are trading all the time you need to be in tune with all the things moving the market. None of them might be fundamental to the actual business. So you spend all your time chasing noise than studying a long term situation. If you cannot concentrate on things in the long term, and spend all your time thinking about the short term, you will not be able to develop the kinds of insights necessary to identify great investments.

From time to time, you will lose some money on paper. But it is just part of the game. This is why I closed long / short. You know I went through three bubbles. The Asian Financial Crisis, the Internet Bubble, and this most recent financial crisis. The biggest mistake I made is not being able to pick up undervalued companies where I had a unique insight but was tied up with this whole long / short thing. The money I left on the table is still adding up. I am still paying for those mistakes.

Q: In a bull market environment, how do you re-evaluate your thesis?

Li Lu: I don’t ever want to profit from a bubble. Soros does that, that is just not my game. I don’t profess any ability to understand how long a crowd will buy into a bubble. I invest in things that appear to be compelling values that continues. So that is why this game is a continuous learning process – because everything affecting the investment is constantly changing. Including the price. Including the prospects and elements of business success. You really do want to never stop learning. This game looks to be easy but it is not easy.

Q: Given your focus on international investments, how do you think about diversifying your investments regionally?

Li Lu: First of all, I did not really specialize in international investments. I started off doing most of my investments in the US and Canada. In recent years, I just find better bargains outside of it. One of the great things about being an investor is you can look anywhere and find great pockets of opportunities. You cannot do that as a venture capitalist as I experienced myself. So you can look anywhere for opportunities.

I do not take a regional approach to diversification. I have views towards certain countries and currencies, but it is not the driving force for a potential investment. If you have your fundamental things right, if you happen to have macro economic factors behind you, you can run a great wave.

Q: How is your investment style different today than when you started the fund?

Li Lu: A lot of things have changed. One bonus about this profession is you get better over time. Most professions, as you get older, you get out of the game. Take the example of competitive sports. If you are a figure skater or gymnast, after your teenage years you are out of the game. With investing, if you are doing it the right way, you get better over time. Your knowledge accumulates exponentially. When I look back at everything I have done, I would have done it all slightly differently, but that is because I am better at it today.

So if you approach it in a fundamentally sound way, as you mature, you become better and better. That process and progression is like compounding money. In fact, you can compound knowledge faster than money. If you truly love this game, I would suggest that you don’t take short cuts. It might take longer but it is more rewarding.

Q: What is the difference between being a top political criminal in China versus a hedge fund manager today (referring to the ire directed at Wall Street)?

Li Lu: I don’t consider myself a criminal. I don’t think China considers me a criminal. What I think we are doing today with our investment in BYD in China is really helping China march towards a modern era of prosperity. BYD is providing a solution to both China and the US, to migrate from the past to a way that gets us out of the unsustainable carbon age that we live in. Global warming is a vital concern to every human being, so China is providing a great contribution to everybody with BYD.

America has had a great history of invention and here is a great company in China that is about to make a major contribution to human civilization with cheap electric vehicles and solar power.

Ultimately we will have to get our energy from the sun. Most of the energy, even fossil fuels (plants that die and then go into the ground), all originally come from the sun. So if you can figure out a way to take energy from the sun and power vehicles, while using batteries to store it, inexpensively — will really make renewable energy power everything.

The combination of those things holds the key to the future of industrial civilization that we are about to embark on. We didn’t set out with BYD with this in mind, it just happened that way. With great companies, it only looks logical in retrospect. Think about how Bill Gates started Microsoft. I don’t think he knew up front that he would take the entire market — at that time it did not exist. It is the same way with our investment in BYD. Ultimately, I think finding an inexpensive way to store energy that we harness from the sun will be a huge contribution for both China and the US, but more broadly our entire civilization.

 

M1、M2剪刀差迎來2010年以來最高值 降準必要性或下降

今日央行公布上半年金融統計數據，其中最大一個特征是，狹義貨幣M1與廣義貨幣M2呈現的剪刀差進一步創新高。(M1)余額44.36萬億元,同比增長24.6%，而(M2)余額149.05萬億元,同比增長只有11.8%。

“這一剪刀差，達到了繼2010年2月份以來歷史最高值。”中國銀行國際金融研究所研究員李佩伽對《第一財經日報》表示，她認為，造成剪刀差創新高的一個重要原因是企業投資意願不足，此外產能過剩造成資本占用以及資金在金融體系內循環都是原因之一。綜合來看，未來降準的必要性下降。

談到未來一段時間的貨幣政策走向，招商宏觀閆玲也認為降準的必要性下降。理由是：央行有多個政策目標，經濟企穩、下半年下行空間可控、且資本市場平穩，央行的貨幣政策基調維持中性，MLF的投放延後降準的時間點。

M1、M2增速剪刀差為何迎峰值?

招商宏觀閆玲指出，本輪M1上升背後則主要是外生的發債規模快速上升和房地產行業銷售明顯改善所致。M1“滯留”在企業賬面恰恰是經濟主體對經濟前景不夠樂觀，投資動力不足的明證。企業投資意意願不高，導致M1對股市和通脹的傳導受阻。

民生固收李奇霖則指出，M1同比增長24.6%，前值23.7%，主要因為專項建設基金項目信貸限定使用用途且審計嚴格，只能專款專用，不能定期化或購買金融產品，只能囤積於企業的活期賬戶，但這也意味著中央對經濟增長的控制力在增強，如果穩增長政策力度加大，趴在活期賬戶上的錢就會進入實體。但權威人士喊話之後，調結構的訴求優於穩增長。

對於M2增速不高，今日央行調查統計司司長盛松成在2016年上半年金融統計數據報告媒體吹風會上指出，從去年10月以來，央行觀察已到剪刀差越來越擴大。具體原因一共有三條。

“第一、銀行存兌匯票減少，所以準備金存款相應減少;第二，地方債券大量發行，導致銀行貸款形成擠出效應，貨幣派生能力下降，所以M2同比緩慢下降;第三，外匯占款持續下降1.22萬元，同比多降8698億元，直接導致M2下降。”盛松成說。

招商宏觀閆玲指出，考慮到地方政府債券6月發行1萬億，其中定向置換貸款的部分1093億元，那麽信貸總規模超過1.5萬億元。中長期貸款占全部貸款的30%，是二季度的高點;票據融資-151億元，未出現此前票據融資補充貸款規模的現象。居民中長期貸款創歷史新高5639億元，占全部貸款的41%。房地產銷售持續旺盛，住房按揭貸款需求穩定，房企資金加速回籠。

民生固收李奇霖認為，M2同比增長11.8%這一結果已經略好於預期。其一，表內外融資均有所恢複，企業債發行好轉，信用派生加快，其二，財政支出力度加大，6月財政存款新增-3295億，而去年受存量財政資金盤活的影響，同期新增1301億元;其三，外匯占款轉正，對M2拖累減弱。

李奇霖預期，預計7月M2同比進一步滑落至11.2%左右，主要受去年救市導致非銀在銀行的存款高基數影響。從我們草根調研的情況看，7月信貸仍會保持一個較高的增長，預計規模在1.3萬億左右，但下半年增長動力不足，尤其是4季度之後，新增人民幣貸款會明顯下行，整體余額同比趨勢略微向下，維持在14%左右。預計融資需求的回落在四季度會較為明顯，屆時貨幣寬松的空間打開，預計債市趨勢性機會出現在四季度，三季度依然維持震蕩，整體策略偏積極，每次收益率反彈都是上車的機會。

近期降準必要性下降

國家統計局7月15日公布數據顯示，2016年上半年國內生產總值(GDP)同比增長6.7%。其中，二季度GDP同比增長6.7%，與一季度GDP增速6.7%持平，仍處於2009年一季度以來最低增速值。

10日，國家統計局公布的數據顯示，今年上半年，全國居民消費價格總水平(CPI)比去年同期上漲2.1%。國家統計局服務業調查中心和中國物流與采購聯合會發布中國制造業和非制造業采購經理指數顯示， 2016年6月份，中國制造業采購經理指數(PMI)為50.0%，比上月微降0.1個百分點，非制造業PMI為53.7，連降兩月後明顯回升。

隨著近期主要經濟指標陸續亮相，由此帶來的貨幣政策預判成為市場關註焦點。市場有觀點認為，鑒於目前我國準備金相對較高，非銀機構資金面相對緊缺，所以不排除下半年降準的可能。

但隨著今日央行公布金融統計數據M1、M2剪刀差創新高，又有觀點認為短期內降準的可能性下降。

李佩伽指出，這表明偏基礎貨幣的增長量是相對比較快的，但並沒形成相應的投資，有理由懷疑企業投資意願不足。其次也懷疑資金在金融體系內循壞。此外，這也與產能過剩造成資本占用有關。從歷史上看，98年M1增速明顯大於M2的情況與今天十分類似。98年就是因為產能過剩是一個重要因素，這就意味著降準的貨幣政策不一定能夠達到效果。

7月13日，央行宣布對13家金融機構開展2590億元MLF(中期借貸便利)操作。其中3個月1010億元、6個月1015億元、1年期565億元，利率與上期持平，分別為2.75%、2.85%、3.0%。

招商宏觀閆玲指出，央行有多個政策目標，經濟企穩、下半年下行空間可控、且資本市場平穩，央行的貨幣政策基調維持中性，MLF的投放延後降準的時間點。央行於7月13日投放中期借貸便利合計2590億元，對沖2270億元到期規模，資本外流規模風險可控，未來存在改善空間，降準的必要性下降。

在岸人民幣兌美元跌破6.7關口 為2010年11月以來首次

在岸人民幣兌美元跌破6.7關口，為2010年11月以來首次。

今日，人民幣兌美元中間價調降156個基點報6.6961，創超5年半新低，超上周最大幅度調降49個基點。

從6月23日起，央行開始連續多次調低中間價，從6.5658 今日的6.6961，貶去1300點。興業研究宏觀分析師表示，人民幣繼續面臨考驗，6.70附近是央行希望暫時得以控制的關口，人民幣保持震蕩或適當回調。

iPhone 4、2010版MacBook Air已過時 蘋果將不再提供硬件服務

據Business Insider報道，蘋果在2010年6月發布的iPhone 4和同年發布的MacBook Air在全世界的很多地方都已經過時了，而蘋果日前在其過時產品網頁上也宣布將這兩款產品列入過時產品庫。

據了解，蘋果在2010年發布的MacBook Air在設計上進行了重要改版，它也是第一款采用楔形設計的蘋果筆記本電腦。目前正在銷售的MacBook Air仍沿用著楔形設計；iPhone 4則是第一款配備Retina顯示屏的蘋果手機，Retina顯示屏的像素密度極高，很快就成了智能手機行業的標準配置。iPhone 4拉開了蘋果智能手機業務長期持續增長的序幕，這款產品正式發布後，iPhone業務連續增長了5年。

蘋果表示，當產品過時的時候，除了在少數特定地區之外，它將不再提供硬件服務。

蘋果在過時產品網頁上寫道：“如無意外，蘋果將不再為過時的產品提供所有的硬件服務。服務供應商也將不能再為過時的產品訂購配件。蘋果所有的零售店和公司在加拿大、歐洲、拉丁美洲和亞太地區的業務都遵循與美國市場一樣的政策。在蘋果零售店和這些業務地區，美國過時產品庫中的產品都將被視為過時產品。”

政府就本港蔬菜的硝酸鹽和亞硝酸鹽含量在2010年做的研究

政府就本港蔬菜的硝酸鹽和亞硝酸鹽含量在2010年做的研究: