7月21日消息, 特斯拉CEO伊隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)剛剛披露的最新版《秘密藍圖》談到特斯拉正在研發新的電動汽車,以及在自動駕駛方面的規劃。
馬斯克宣布了升級版《特斯拉秘密藍圖》,內容總結如下:
將開發集成太陽能發電裝置的車頂
擴張特斯拉的生產線,將覆蓋“所有主要的”消費市場,電動重型貨車與電動公共汽車均在研發中
將開發安全性高10倍的自動駕駛技術
將推出汽車共享功能,將使車主在不使用車時能獲得盈利
10年前,2006年馬斯克披露了《特斯拉秘密藍圖》,當時的戰略可以總結如下:
開發跑車
用這些錢開發價格實惠的汽車
再用這些錢開發價格更實惠的汽車
上述過程中,還要提供零排放電動汽車
太陽能動力汽車
馬斯克稱將開發集成太陽能發電裝置的車頂,該產品不僅僅能用太陽能技術自動發電,同時又要兼具美感。計劃稱該產品將通過智能手機和配備的APP進行管理。Musk尤其強調,SolarCity是特斯拉開發太陽能電池產品必不可少的一環。
6月19日,特斯拉(Tesla) 宣布收購太陽能組件生產商SolarCity。以每股收購價介於26.5美元—28.5美元收購SolarCity,此宗交易總價值最高將為28.6億美元。
消息一出引發各方質疑,但Musk在此次計劃發表中強調了太陽能技術的重要性,並稱,特斯拉和SolarCiry作為獨立公司的壁壘將被破除。
更多的車型
特斯拉稱將擴展目前的生產線,其中電動重型貨車,電動的公共汽車是重磅企劃。Musk稱:“兩者都依然在開發的初級階段,有望在明年完成。”
此前馬斯克的預告出爐時,長期跟蹤特斯拉的摩根士丹利分析師亞當· 喬納斯(Adam Jonas)就曾推測將是與公共交通有關的系統。
另外,和Model 3同步,特斯拉將推出更小型的SUV,與Model 3共享操作平臺。Musk指出,特斯拉將覆蓋絕大部分消費級市場,並稱“很可能並不需要比Model 3價格更低的汽車”。
4月,特斯拉發布了首款“平價版”電動汽車Model 3,在美售價為3.5萬美元。該車將於2017年底才投產並陸續向預訂客戶發貨。
自動駕駛
特斯拉稱將開發安全性高10倍的自動駕駛技術。
此前特斯拉剛發第一起無人駕駛命案。5月7日,特斯拉的一輛Model S無人駕駛汽車發生車禍並造成駕駛員死亡。美國國家公路交通安全管理局6月30日表示對事故展開調查,以查清這部特斯拉汽車在事故發生時是否使用了自動駕駛系統。
因為特斯拉並未將這起車禍向投資者及時公開披露,Musk曾與《財富》雜誌編輯在推特上展開罵戰。
汽車共享
馬斯克稱,當自動駕駛被監管部門批準後,用戶就可以隨時隨地召喚(summon)自己的特斯拉了,當汽車接到用戶後,用戶就可以在車上讀書、睡覺、幹任何事情。
用戶還可以通過特斯拉的APP,把自己的車共享出來給有需要的人用,這樣當你不用汽車的時候,它就可以幫你創造收入。
馬斯克還表示,如果在某些城市,特斯拉汽車的需求超過供給,該公司就會運營自己的車隊。
馬斯克還透露出參與分享經濟的野心,他認為,無人駕駛汽車最終將會獲得監管者的批準。他預計,用戶今後幾乎可以隨時隨地召喚特斯拉汽車。一旦坐上汽車,便可睡覺、閱讀,或從事任何事情,而交通運輸工作則完全交給自動駕駛系統來完成。
除此之外,他還計劃組建一支特斯拉汽車共享車隊:車主只需要按下移動應用上的一個按鈕,即可對外出租閑置的汽車。“這將大幅降低私家車的真實擁有成 本,使得任何人都可以擁有特斯拉。由於多數汽車真正得以利用的時間僅為5%至10%,所以無人駕駛汽車的經濟價值將達到普通汽車的好幾倍。”馬斯克寫道。
除了汽車共享計劃外,馬斯克還計劃在供不應求的城市組建自己的車隊,確保用戶隨時隨地都能約車。
博客全文如下:
Master Plan, Part Deux
Elon Musk July 20, 2016
The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn't all that complicated and basically consisted of:
Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car
And...
Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.
The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own. The list of successful car company startups is short. As of 2016, the number of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt is a grand total of two: Ford and Tesla. Starting a car company is idiotic and an electric car company is idiocy squared.
Also, a low volume car means a much smaller, simpler factory, albeit with most things done by hand. Without economies of scale, anything we built would be expensive, whether it was an economy sedan or a sports car. While at least some people would be prepared to pay a high price for a sports car, no one was going to pay $100k for an electric Honda Civic, no matter how cool it looked.
Part of the reason I wrote the first master plan was to defend against the inevitable attacks Tesla would face accusing us of just caring about making cars for rich people, implying that we felt there was a shortage of sports car companies or some other bizarre rationale. Unfortunately, the blog didn't stop countless attack articles on exactly these grounds, so it pretty much completely failed that objective.
However, the main reason was to explain how our actions fit into a larger picture, so that they would seem less random. The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good. That's what "sustainable" means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone.
By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.
Here is what we plan to do to make that day come sooner:
Integrate Energy Generation and Storage
Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.
We can't do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are different companies, which is why we need to combine and break down the barriers inherent to being separate companies. That they are separate at all, despite similar origins and pursuit of the same overarching goal of sustainable energy, is largely an accident of history. Now that Tesla is ready to scale Powerwall and SolarCity is ready to provide highly differentiated solar, the time has come to bring them together.
Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport
Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.
What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.
In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.
With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.
Autonomy
As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.
Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.
I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.
According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after which our system is named.
It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.
Sharing
When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.
You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.
In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it.
(綜合來源:新浪科技、TechWeb、IT之家、華爾街見聞)