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向巴菲特偷師（一） 止凡

來源: http://cpleung826.blogspot.hk/2015/01/blog-post_7.html

說到投資致富，怎能不討論股神巴菲特呢？他是單靠股票投資而可以成為世界首富之列，像這樣的模式實在不多，富豪大多是生意人或企業家，極少是純投資者，所以止凡認為向巴菲特偷師絕對是有效的修行。

其實，坊間寫有關巴菲特的投資智慧的書籍實在很多，看過三幾本之後，我相信大約會掌握到股神的投資模式，其他的都不用再花太多時間去看。然而，如果要向巴菲特偷師的話，另一個方法就是研究巴郡的主要持股，這是在讀書時代，解算式時學會的「從答案估算回頭」，巴郡就是股神的投資答案，研究這個答案看看有何得著。

 巴郡乃股神巴菲特的主要投資旗艦，雖然巴郡所投資的公司都有一百幾十家，但其實巴郡的投資非常集中，主要的投資只是集中在四支股票上，這四支股票加起來佔去巴郡總市值的六成，其實從股神這個安排上亦可以學到集中與分散投資的概念。

 大家一定很有興趣知道這四支股票是什麼，為何股神可以把六成市值都安排到這四支股票之上，如果這四支股票或其中一兩支出事，股神豈不是「一鋪清袋」？為何股神對這四支股票的信心比香港人對物業的信心還要大呢？不如先介紹這四支股票，讓大家自己研究一下。
第一支股票是富國銀行（WFC），佔巴郡總市值大約22%，巴郡持有4億6千多萬股，大約市值240億美元。看看巴菲特在2012年7月對富國銀行的評論：

 “They’ve got a sensational mortgage operation. The total mortgage market was at the $3 trillion level not that long ago. If it goes back up to $3 trillion, I hope Wells is going a third of those.”

“Wells did the best job of the big players in the mortgage market and therefore they’ve garnered a share as the other fellows have fallen by the wayside.”

 “I like Wells Fargo better than anything by far. It complicates life when I and buying things as opposed to the Berkshire Hathaway. I get what is left over…I like Wells Fargo better [than JPMorgan]. We have been buying Wells Fargo month after month for a lot of years. Among the big banks, I think it is the best.”

 大意是指巴菲特認為WFC在房地產市場表現極佳，是眾多銀行之中最好的。
第二支股票是可口可樂（KO），佔巴郡總市值大約16%，巴郡持有4億股，大約市值170億美元。看看巴菲特在2013年4月跟可口可樂主席對話：
“I’m the kind of guy who likes to bet on sure things,” said Buffett, who served on Coke’s board of directors for 17 years. “No business has ever failed with happy customers… and you’re selling happiness.”

“I like wonderful brands,” he added. “If you take care of a great brand, it’s forever.” 

大概意思是指可口可樂有極好的品牌，給予客戶開心，這樣不可能失敗，巴菲特最喜歡投資到可靠的事情之上。
第三支股票是美國運通（AXP），佔巴郡總市值大約12%，巴郡持有1億5千多萬股，大約市值130億美元。大家看看巴菲特買入美國運通時的決定：

In 1964, the “salad oil scandal,” where a vegetable oil company obtained massive loans through falsified collateral, rocked American Express, which had provided warehouses and vouched for the company’s inventory. This event ended up costing the company approximately $58 million and much of its reputation. In the period after the scandal broke, investors couldn’t sell AXP shares fast enough, and the stock lost 50 percent of its value in a short time, falling to $35 per share. Buffett, however, saw this moment of panic for just what it was – a drawback for an otherwise very stable company with long-term growth potential. Buffett observed people beginning to use credit cards in their daily transactions, and recognized AXP’s potential to become an American blue chip. The Berkshire Hathaway CEO purchased shares with a cost basis of $1.28 billion. As of December 31, 2009, the company’s 151.6 billion shares are worth more than $5 billion, an unrealized gain of $3.7 billion and an increase of 290 percent. Berkshire Hathaway currently owns 12.7 percent of American Express.

 可能這故事很多人都聽聞過，當時AXP有訴訟問題，要賠償巨額金錢，但巴菲特卻認為股價跌過了籠，於是就開始觀察人們有否因為這單訴訟事件而影響用AE卡的習慣，最後決定大手買入。
第四支股票是國際商業機器（IBM），佔巴郡總市值大約12%，巴郡持有7000萬股，大約市值133億美元。這是近期的投資，打破了巴菲特不投資科技股的傳統：

 “Their financial management was equally brilliant, particularly in recent years as the company’s financial flexibility improved. Indeed, I can think of no major company that has had better financial management, a skill that has materially increased the gains enjoyed by IBM shareholders.”

 巴菲特讚揚IBM的財務管理，認為它是大型公司之中做得最好的。
其他的持股所佔巴郡市值比重都不到5%，股神及芒格對這4支股票如此有信心，絕對值得大家好好研究一番，以找尋及深入了解股神的投資概念。昨天小弟見報談論有關美股投資，心血來潮發這篇文章，其實我應該更早就寫這個題目，好讓大家可以有個研究方向，亦令自己對巴菲特的投資理念有更好的掌握。
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