Clean Up Our Financial Markets

都說香港在沉淪，政府無能、學位難求、樓價高企、蝗蟲成災。想走，總有十萬個理由。

但世界咁大，邊度至啱你？不如請教關景鴻。「選擇比努力更重要。」

他的意思是：著草要找個合適的地方，怕凍的別去西伯利亞，去溫哥華。

用腳投票是為選擇，改變現狀卻須努力。香港人習慣遇事即逃，也是一種「選擇」。

關景鴻本身就是離地中產的代表人物，雖然他的身家達資本家級別。

「我對政治唔敏感。作為香港人，只求安定，唔想有咩動盪。」按理他發的是亂世財。

世道愈差，愈多人走佬，他愈有景。關鍵是，景鴻的業務一早向北，為強國貴人搞投資移民，不愁客路。他在八○年便移民加拿大，護照晨早到手；女兒在彼邦出生，已大學畢業，不愁教育。裝睡的人喚不醒，但他有條件呼呼大睡。

奉勸其他昏昏欲睡的香港人，切勿模仿，因為你不理政治，政治也保證會來找你，否則本刊原銀奉還。

有說香港移民之風再起，回流移民再移民，沒資格去美加澳紐做二等公民的，都信誓旦旦要去台灣。當中有幾多屬真、幾多吹水？一切與移民有關的數字，關景鴻倒背如流：今年上半年，移民海外的港人約有3,900，較去年同期增加8%。相比起九二年的移民高峰期、全年逾66,000人的數字，是小巫見大巫。「但回流移民再離港的數字，保安局沒有統計。」只可說當年有能力出走的，已經有外國護照跟身。而自從○八年金融海嘯後，各移民大國要錢唔要人，封了技術移民的門路：「以前做會計、電腦程式員都OK，但而家要管理人才先夠資格。而且名額也減少了。」做投資移民呢，你得有幾千萬身家。就算香港人想棄城逃跑，大概也只能撩起半圈漣漪。關景鴻也不會因此多了生意，本地客佔他的賬簿早已不足2%，其餘的九成八，都是大陸客。

鬥身家、論走佬的決心，強國人贏到開巷。關景鴻的辦公室位於廣東道，窗外是270度海景，左中環、右西九，正是自由行眼中的香港。他曾在加拿芬道紮根多年，○九年「升格」至此。「順勢而行好重要，而家一講廣東道，全中國都識。」公司設有偌大的貴賓室，方便客人來港血拼時歇腳，並存放戰利品。黃金週那陣子，這裡曾被購物袋坑掉。相比在上水通宵排隊為求一紙幼稚園申請表的家長、或推著大喼搶奶粉的水貨客，這群豪客屬另一檔次。他們買的是香港身份證，投資移民，最少盛惠1,000萬港元。「呢班有錢人唔易服侍。佢哋來到香港見朋友，有地方聚腳，唔使去cafe，會覺得好有面。」發達總是有原因。秋老虎火熱，廣東道人肉橫流，走到天星碼頭，西裝筆挺的關景鴻已額角冒汗，但仍保持著電視廣告中那招牌微笑，向路上每位潛在客戶點頭，差點未向他們「保證申請成功」。

分銷商

港燦憎人富貴嫌人窮，嘲笑暴發戶的品味之餘，又痛恨來港申領福利的窮鬼。但關景鴻，稱他們為「朋友」。既然是朋友，就要事事包容。內地人的舉止有損市容？他說香港人有責任協助新移民適應：「八十年代我哋去到美加澳紐，都俾人話『最大聲嗰啲，就係香港移民』。」豪客們搶貴樓價，助長地產霸權？「資產升值，退休時可以套現，都幾開心。」年輕人蝸居無望點算？「對新一代來說，物價係貴咗。但有通脹經濟先會好，通縮大家都冇錢消費，失業率上升。你揀邊樣？」

回歸以來，每日150名憑單程證來港的「新香港人」，累計逾七十萬，不怕陸沉？「香港出生率低，新移民可幫助解決人口老化問題。建築業青黃不接、洗碗月薪一萬都請唔到人，新來的勞工階層會好樂意去做。」若香港對每日150個單程證配額有審批權，不是更能夠因應本地需要、控制來港人士的質素？「若是《基本法》規定，都唔係我哋（香港）可以處理到，咁爭取都冇用啦。」實情是《基本法》第22條訂明，單程證人數是中央政府「徵求香港的意見後確定」，至於如何分配名額，並無條文規定，理論上有商榷餘地。可惜的是，不能成功爭取，也別指望中央會給香港原銀奉還。他甚至覺得香港人口的目標應該是900萬以上，但房愈劏愈細，新來的住哪兒？「這個……船到橋頭自然直吧。」關景鴻看到的香港與現實有出入，可能因為他「對政治唔敏感」所致。作為投資移民政策的既得利益者，網上有人罵他是劣等人口分銷商、專門輸出蝗蟲，當事人亦有所聽聞：「唯有以平常心看待，凡事低調啲。其實我作為橋樑，幫佢哋（內地投資移民）合法來港，又帶動香港經濟，貢獻都好大。」

方舟

正在天星碼頭閘口前掏出八達通時，售票員告知是日免費，因為有廣告贊助云云。「咁好彩，我廿幾卅年沒搭過小輪了。」但過去廿幾年搭關景鴻的方舟、移民外國的人可不少。他是四邑人，移民基因早種，姐姐在七○年代已移民加拿大Calgary。七八年，他在理工學院畢業，兩年後隨父母到彼邦團聚。與今日拿著大袋銀紙慢慢搣的投資移民不同，他錢不多，冬天仍要在路邊等巴士。「零下三十幾度，用頸巾圍住口、鼻，但不到一分鐘，就睇唔到嘢，原來眼鏡結了冰。」八十年代是香港的黃金時代，發達者眾，當中包括那早他幾年畢業的校友梁振英。在冰天雪地中，他有否覺得被賣豬仔？「都唔係嘅，沒有那十年也就沒有現在的我。」他在加國做會計，懂中、英文和台山話，當地寂寞又無助的老華僑當他是救星，報稅、續牌、一切要入官門解決的事項都由他代行。漸漸連移民官都以為他是移民顧問。移民官後來辭職，與他合作搞移民生意，時為九○年。當人人趕著移民時，他提著公事包穿梭加港兩地。關景鴻的方舟乘著移民潮衝上浪頂。第一年純利有十萬加元，當時折合四十萬港幣，收入比打工時翻了一倍。香港是銷金窩，他嫌廣告費太貴，遂「出口轉內銷」，在加拿大刊登平面廣告，當地華人看見，自會轉告香港的親戚。此計奏效。正躊躇是否該回港一搏，「當時有人話香港的移民潮已是水尾。」但相士批他注定要做移民生意，日後更會憑知名度食胡。九二年，他正式回港設辦事處。九四年，他幫襯亞視買了$38,800、播足廿八次的電視廣告套餐。香港人從此在螢幕中看見他的嘜頭，直到現在。

到九五年，該走的都走了。關景鴻的生意由每月五、六十宗，急降至五、六宗。以為方舟快沉，冷不防加拿大開放中國技術移民，造就他轉戰神州。○三年，我城蕭條，港府開放投資移民，他的方舟駛離加拿大，返轉頭載強國新貴駛入維港。由於香港無權批核中央管轄的子民來港，內地人要先取得第三國的居留權才可落戶香港，加上人民幣有外匯管制，投資移民必需借第三國確保銀紙可來去自如。關景鴻借畿內亞、岡比亞等小國，作為強國人方舟夢的踏腳石。聘陳啟泰賣廣告的行家押注瓦魯阿圖，做獨家代理，高呼「我想住嘅地方」。但關景鴻覺得這些國家政局不穩，合作沒有保障，「瓦魯阿圖早期都有搵過我囉。所謂名譽領事在外面辦好了手續，但當地移民部可以冇記錄。」他寧願不做代理。結論是：「有啲錢唔係你賺，就唔好賺。」

輸唔起的原因，是他「保證申請成功，否則原銀奉還」。「原銀奉還」的概念當年在香港、在中國都是新鮮事，關景鴻在加拿大卻是買粒糖都可以退錢。他的做法是先審核客戶的資料，確保符合移民條件，才接下生意：「有四、五成個案會被拒。」做會計的人謹小慎微，但風險始終不能避免。今年初，加拿大宣佈將○八年前的技術移民申請全部退回，因為積壓的申請太多。他要原銀奉還的個案多達三、四百宗，涉及金額過千萬。「做生意要審慎，一日未攞到簽證，一日都唔可以計入銷售。要保留現金，分清邊啲係我哋嘅錢。」作為中介，他的行家無孔不入，由前幾年替雙非孕婦來港搶床位、到現時為雙非學童排隊搶學位，蠱惑的人轉身快。「其實都唔算係行家，他們在法律界底線邊緣，生意唔長遠，係另一類產業。」此等蝗蟲，港人群起而攻之，但關景鴻不以為然：「如果借假地址來報學校就唔好，法律、安全底線係好重要。」又到黃子華的名句出場：「搵食啫，犯法o架？」同樣道理，為了「保法治」，關景鴻反對佔領中環。「爭民主，應該搵方法去溝通。溝通總好過對抗。」他贊成香港要有民主，「但要按部就班，不要好extreme。不然好似中東國家咁，一有民主就成亂局。」他說的應該是二○一○年尾由突尼斯燃起、蔓延至阿爾及利亞和埃及等地的茉莉花革命。港人嚮往的台灣也是經過多年匍匐前進，才有今日的局面。雖然馬英九的民望比梁振英還要低，但台灣人手中有的是選票。世上沒有免費的民主，離地中產肯定不願意付賬。因為抗爭一旦失敗，從不原銀奉還。

回流

小輪開往中環。關景鴻驚覺維港風景美好，艘船轉眼又折返尖沙嘴。他現時大部分時間在廣州，資產以磚頭為主，分佈中港兩地。隨著兩名女兒大學畢業、回流返港，連加拿大的住宅都已脫手。他說99%的移民最終都會回流，「從表面睇，真係幾浪費時間。但過程中可以見識到好多事情。唔食過葡萄，唔知佢係酸嘅。原來香港始終最好。」大概如此，他的生意才由出口轉內銷，專幫人移民來香港這個最好的地方。今時今日，香港人又再陷入「走唔走」的迷思。回首看上一波移民潮，關景鴻說很多人身在彼邦心在港。追TVB劇、看香港娛樂圈的花邊新聞，貼身過膏藥。「我有時都跟唔到佢哋講乜。最近《好聲音》有個唱得很好的，叫鄭××？」那是《星夢傳奇》的鄭俊弘，《中國好聲音》是另一回事。本性難移的，還有中國人的走難基因。強國人爭相逃出地獄國，關景鴻估計客源在未來十至二十年都不成問題。他雖然移民回流去又返，骨子裡仍是中國得很。口講唔想女兒有太大壓力，卻一心想她們繼承父業。前年計劃上市，也是為了接班部署。只是上次加拿大突然撤回大批技術移民申請，令盈利受挫、計劃就此卡住。但主修心理學的大女無甚興趣；細女讀完商科後，第二學位卻轉讀設計，似乎與老爸的路愈走愈遠。「俾佢哋碰嚇，先知道珍惜。」

AT JUST 28, Mr. William Lo already has couple colorful feathers in his fedora – he has not only published his first novel but is also an influential portfolio manager with Ample Capital in Hong Kong. He told Asia Fund Space the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect share trading scheme comes not a moment too soon.

He must be doing something right as the portfolio he manages has risen 12% this year, compared to just a 2% rise for Hong Kong stocks overall.

Not yet thirty, Ample Capital Portfolio Manager Mr. William Lo is not shy on the lecture circuit.

Asia Fund Space: You just published your first book last month, 一個８０後告訴你他為什麽是有錢人　(A Twenty-Something’s Take on How the Rich Get Rich). What made a young busy professional like you decide to write the book and give us the lowdown on what’s inside?

Mr. William Lo, Portfolio Manager, Ample Capital: I’ve been interested in finance since as long as I can remember. More recently, when I was 17, it was the year 2003. And anyone who was in Hong Kong – or Greater China at the time – remembers the atmosphere of dread we all felt, oftentimes afraid to leave our homes for fear of contracting SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).

But I found great peace, solace and a sense of security studying securities that year, mainly because not only were my peers wary of going to crowded places for much of that year, but they felt much safer locked up at home with their gadgets and games.

一個８０後告訴你他為什麽是有錢人
(A Twenty-Something’s Take on How
the Rich Get Rich), by Mr. William Lo

I soon found that I could virtually have libraries to myself, and I would sit in virtual solitude that year in Hong Kong’s nearly empty reading rooms poring over the vast financial and investing sector research materials they had on hand.

At the time, I was too young to put money in the market under my own name, but did have relatives willing to stand behind my hunches and allow me to buy and sell under their name, thus giving me my initial immersion into the business of share trading.

With this in mind, I wanted to write a book that would not only encapsulate my experiences as an analyst and investor, but also inspire other would-be, up-and-coming financial sector professionals to succeed by way of my career example.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index (above) is up just 2% YTD, whlle Hong Kong investor Mr. William Lo’s portfolio has risen 12%.
Chart: Bloomberg

But it’s not just a tome about good and bad picks, or my history of bullish and dud choices.

I would say only about 20% of the book’s content is devoted to the nuts and bolts of investing while a good portion concerns what I have noticed and learned about good business management practices.

In short, it’s an advice book on how successful people make their money, whether via investing or developing their own businesses.

I also devote a chapter to how some of the world’s headline actors and entertainment sector celebrities have managed to make more money than the chairpersons of well-known blue chip enterprises.

So the book is not just about seasoned veterans in the commercial spaces and how they became rich, but is more about how a wide cross-section of the wealthy from various social strata and occupations, became well heeled over time.

Author of his Success: Ample Capital Portfolio Manager Mr. William Lo published his
first book last month, 一個８０後告訴你他為什麽是有錢人　(A Twenty-Something’s Take
on How the Rich Get Rich).

Asia Fund Space: The Year of the Horse has not been particularly kind to the region, either in terms of GDP performance or equity market prices.

How do you think the Hong Kong stock market will finish out the year?

Mr. William Lo: I expect sentiment to improve as the year draws to a close, and assuming there are no major shocks in the fourth quarter, I expect the benchmark Hang Seng Index to be rangebound around the 25,000 level.

I also anticipate sentiment further improving next, as I don’t expect the low China GDP growth figures to continue on much longer, thanks to what are likely to be a new raft of stimulus measures from Beijing should the economy maintain such stubbornly sluggish expansion rates into 2015.

Ample Capital Portfolio Manager Mr. William Lo keeps a close eye on market
trends in both Hong Kong and the PRC.

Asia Fund Space: The Hang Seng Index is currently hovering around 23,000 points. That’s 3.4% higher than year-earlier levels and up 2.2% from the beginning of the year.

However, it’s currently down sharply from the well-over 25,000 achievement seen early last month.

Given the recently sluggishness – and street protests in Hong Kong — investor chat these days is abuzz with talk of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect — a market mechanism which could kick off as early as this month that enables international investors to buy shares in Shanghai while also allowingPRC investors the opportunity to buy stocks listed in Hong Kong.

But some are predicting significant growing pains for the scheme as given the quotas that keep a lid on the amount that can be traded, as well as a proscription on day trading, both regulations that have often been phased out in other more established capital markets overseas.

What is your take on this potentially game changing gambit?

Mr. William Lo: It may launch by end-October but I think it may be pushed back to November.

The delayed start can most clearly be blamed on differences in the two markets between regulatory issue, especially in terms of taxation.

That being said, it can’t be blamed on either side in particular and I think both sides are so far unprepared on the whole.

House Rules: Will Singapore and Hong Kong-listed China New Town Development
get a big boost from Shanghai investors finding its easier to investor in Hong Kong
listcos following the imminent launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect plan?

Despite the delays, the plan cannot be launched a moment too soon as I think it is highly anticipated by both sides, and overseas investors as well.

The markets have become even more efficient, and the A/H share premium that was a wide gulf a few years ago has already become something much more resembling dual-listed parity.

And following the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect launch, premiums on either side of the de facto border will become a thing of history.

I think Shanghai will be the bigger beneficiary of the Connect, both in terms of more enhanced transparency and will open up A-shares to global investors, thus making terms like QFII and ETFs potentially relics of history someday.

Overall, the plan is very helpful in bringing about a true, freeflow of capital between markets and continents.

by Andrew Vanburen ([email protected])

盧誌威

《鴻鵠財誌》創辨人盧誌威，現任豐盛資產管理組合交易經理，證監會持牌人，Yahoo財經欄名《鴻鵠經誌》出自史記「燕雀安知鴻鵠之誌」，鴻鵠於古中國是白色鳳凰，善高飛，寓意，燕雀身小深信貧富不問出身，只憑誌氣決心。

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