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誰試過看畢證券分析所有版本? 止凡

http://cpleung826.blogspot.hk/2014/04/blog-post_6045.html
早前,止凡這裡被blog友挑戰,直接被擊倒,都怪自己學習不足,招牌不保,不過其實這裡又有什麼招牌可言呢?哈哈。講笑而已,其實這不算是挑戰,反倒看見一個虛心學習的好機會,今天轉載出來,讓大家討論一下。



匿名留言:

Security analysis have 6 version. Do anybody read all of them? If Not, you are not qualified to discuss value investment.


止凡回應:

的確慚愧,我並沒有閱畢security analysis的所有不同version,不過我又不認為我們不能討論價值投資,始終討論能促使大家進步。

看來你也是價值投資高手,能留個名字及一起分享知識嗎? 


SK回應:

Security version 1934 to 1962 (v1-v4) are written BG. V5 and V6 are written by others. They cover the economic cycle of 50 years. Including 1929 depression and world war 2 which we have no experience of it. The risk that we are talking today is meaningless. I remember BG loss a lot of the money when he bought the stock far under net cash value at 1930 due to the irrational market reaction. When you read them, you can under the stock/market volatility between industries to industries, decades to decades and companies herself years to years. Then you can take the advantage of market mis-pricing. BG's investment return is about 15% so I do not think that I can exceed that. 10%-15% is my target.

I have read the version of 1934, 1940, 1951, 1962 and 1975 for the stock part only. My understanding is less than 40% of it and thinking myself is primary level. I have not read the bond part due to more difficult. Conclusion, value investment is difficult combine the knowledge and experience.

PS : your blog is good as you try to teach the others became financial independence.

止凡回應:

很感謝你的分享,你有寫blog嗎?我或許會分享一下你這篇留言。

我們這裡有位blog友,巴黎兄,對BG的價值投資也有很深的研究,讀了這書很多遍,不妨到巴黎兄處看看,作點交流。

多謝你讚賞這blog,不過我沒有資格教授別人,只是作點分享而已,你也不妨多來訪及留言分享。


後記:

相信第一位留言者正是後續回應的那位SK兄,他對我當頭棒喝的一下教訓,讓我更加知道自己的不足。知己不足總比做井底之蛙更好,對於這交流我是高興的,希望在這裡討論的各位也不要有任何"hard feeling",大家都是尋找知識及進步空間的。

SK兄補充了Benjamin Graham的證券分析不同版本的背景,這一點我的確沒有聽聞過,然而,他提醒了我們所身處的環境與當年經濟大蕭條的環境可說是差天共地,就算連Benjamin Graham親自出手也損失了不少資金,已經買入估值相對低的股票,還要輸錢。

按這個世界經濟大周期,可謂50年一個循環,正如SK所言,我們今天在討論的所謂風險,可說是不足掛齒的,因為整個世界主要經濟體都沒有戰亂,又沒有什麼經濟大蕭條。相對於二戰、大股災、香港當年的中英談判等事件,每件事情都足以令一個地方變天,我們現在所擔心的似乎不算太嚴重吧。SK兄的意見,令我跳升了一個看事情的層次,好像巴菲特枱頭有的一條字條,內容大概為「沒有核戰就繼續投資吧」。

不過,我又不是完全贊同SK的觀點,在這裡會繼續討論價值投資,大家追求財務知識要有熱誠,但決不能說沒有看過哪本書就停止討論價值投資。再者,相信這裡高手多的是,小弟不材而沒有看畢證券分析所有版本,不代表這裡沒有高手看過。然而,如果SK兄看過的話,也可以多點到此分享知識,何樂而不為。

最後借了巴黎兄的blog作後緩,希望沒有得罪,如果大家作點「交量」,說不定會對這本「價值投資聖經」有著更高層次的體會,讓一眾blog友有所得著。
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