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金融雲端:智能手機不育疑惑

1 : GS(14)@2012-09-04 12:45:46

http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/financeestate/art/20120904/18007359
未來兩週,將是新智能手機空群而出的月份,諾基亞、摩托羅拉、蘋果均會相繼推出新機,不過,風光背後,智能電話要提升功能卻越來越困難,絕對會拖慢繁殖新一代手機的時間,有效近50年的摩爾定律似乎到了盡頭,而突破的關鍵,在於一家公司、一家與ASM太平洋(522)極有淵源的公司。
荷蘭上市的ASML,是世上首屈一指的電路板印刷設備生產商,最近獲得幾家IT巨擘的注資,其中英特爾最大手筆,注資41億美元,當中包括入股公司的15%股權,及10.4億歐元的研發費用,至於台積電及三星則宣佈分別投資14億及9.75億美元。這幾家公司都是ASML的客戶,為何這些大客願意出錢又出力,拱手送上近500億港元,來扶腋ASML長大?
智能手機芯片技術 遇樽頸
關鍵在於智能手機的芯片技術已到樽頸位,英特爾的創辦人摩爾曾揚言,集成電路上的晶體管數目,能以每兩年倍升的速度增長。在同一面積上的晶體管數目越多,代表計算能力越強,功能越強大。可是,要把更多的線路擠在一起,需要極強的線路印刷技術,現有的印刷技術使用可見光,波長太長,要突破20微米(五億分之一米)的線路寬度限制,猶如用粗毛筆繪精密地圖。
而ASML掌握的技術,是改用波長較短的紫外光,這等於搵來一支鉛芯筆,先天問題迎刃而解,不過紫外光也有尚未解決的技術障礙,主要是很容易被其他物件例如空氣吸收,故此要在真空操作,而且按ASML最新開發的生產設備,每小時只可生產20至30塊晶圓,若要廣泛應用,生產力起碼要上到100晶圓。再者,這種技術的設備,較現有設備貴逾倍,差不多每台造價逾一億美元。
儘管如此,這已被視為業界的希望,把技術的樽頸推遲,令智能手機的改朝換代步伐不致減慢。幾家芯片用量最高的公司,已急不及待,希望幫ASML一步登天,盡快改良這種技術,以達到可以大量生產的地步。
ASML正處於很微妙的狀態,它的議價能力很大,一來開發費用以高達10億美元計,公司已估計要額外聘請1200個工程師,可見注碼驚人,而且一旦成功,其客戶可以坐享其成,要作出這樣大的投入,可想而知,管理層必定左度右度。而今次這種安排,無疑可以把客戶拖下水,分擔龐大研發費用的風險,亦保證了新產品的客路。難怪三巨頭入股後,ASML的股價一路看悄,過去一年已升近倍。
ASML獲巨頭看中 股價飛昇
交易反映,高新科技研發的成本越來越高,很多時已到了不是一家公司可以承擔的地步,競爭對手、上下游公司共同參與開發,已成為一條出路。正如蘋果是三星的大客仔,但同時間又對簿公堂,又或如手機網絡商共用網絡基建來互相競爭,這種又傾又砌的關係,媲美政治圈的敵友難分。
我見有傳媒把ASML誤報為ASM太平洋的母公司ASMI,查實ASML是ASMI與菲利浦於1984年成立的合資公司,基於不明的原因,ASMI於四年後退股,雙方分道揚鑣。多年下來ASML的市值已去到1852億元,是 ASM太平洋的5倍。
丘亦生
2 : GS(14)@2012-09-04 12:48:26

http://www.asml.com/asml/show.do?lang=EN&ctx=33254&year=1984-1990
ASML founded in 1984

ASML is founded as 50/50 joint venture between Philips and Advanced Semiconductor Materials International (ASMI). The company is temporarily and inauspiciously located in a wooden building next to one of the Philips factories in Eindhoven, the Netherlands. The first PAS 2000 stepper (PAS = Philips Automatic Stepper) ships to Philips Elcoma (Electronic Components and Materials).

1988 - Entering Asia

After Philips starts a joint-venture foundry in Taiwan, ASML begins to make in-roads into the Asian market. In the US, ASML grows from a few employees based in Tempe to 84 employees in 5 locations. ASM International withdraws from the ASML joint venture and is bought out by Philips.
3 : GS(14)@2012-09-04 12:48:42

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
ASML Holding

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASM_International_%28company%29
ASM International (company)
4 : GS(14)@2012-09-04 12:50:08

http://wafer-fabrication.blogspo ... -profiles-asml.html
It all started in 1984 as a "spin-out" of Philips and ASM International. In 1990 ASMI divested the operation into a separate company because of the money-losing lithographic business at that time.

"In retrospect, it may have been the biggest blunder in ASMI's corporate history. ASML, after a rough patch in the early 1990s, began to find favor outside of its traditional base in Europe with American and Taiwanese chip makers." (1)

The company went public in 1995 and acquired SVG in the US in 2001. The lithographic market started in the US, but soon the Japanese producers Nikon and Canon dominated the market until the end of the 20th century. In 2003 that picture is changed completely:

"While - in 2003 -- ASML and No. 2 player Nikon are embroiled in bitter legal battles over intellectual property issues in the United States and Japan, Canon, the No. 3 lithography player, has declared publicly that its goal is to unseat ASML from its top spot within five years." (2)
5 : GS(14)@2012-09-04 12:51:27

http://benjaminwennink.com/Docum ... nt%20-%20Report.pdf

Business Analysis
ASML
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