中國的銀行應該減肥,瘦身, 張化橋
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_50c88c400101n3p1.html張化橋在路透社撰文:壞銀行,壞主意,
簡介如下:
誰也沒有先見之明。不過,現在回頭看,13年前中國弄出的四大資產管理公司是個巨大的錯誤。
當年,銀行雖然壞帳很嚴重,但是公眾對銀行的信心從來沒有動搖,而且銀行的流動性也很正常。1999-2001年貸款增速開始下降,信貸資金開始轉不動,那本來是好事,它會迫使銀行提高貸款標準,改善資金的使用效率。但是四大資產管理公司的出現以及後來大量的注資破壞了本來應該出現的改革。
這13年來的信貸失控,和高通脹都源於那次的強力注資。現在,中國的銀行又有了很多壞帳。千萬不要再搞"剝離"。中國的銀行資本金太多(不是太少),放款能力太強,應該瘦身。應該停止配售新股,停止優先股,和可轉債。應該大大提高派息,甚至實行大額的特殊派息。
Bad
banks, bad idea,
By Joe Zhang,
At the end of the 1990s, China's banks faced a rising tide of bad debts, and Beijing came to the rescue. Financial insiders still see that move as necessary, wise and courageous. On the contrary, bailing out the banks was a bad idea. It would be a mistake to repeat the trick.
Then, as now, China's lenders had lent too much. Between 1984 and 1997, their loans grew 24 percent per annum. It couldn't continue forever. In 1998, as non-performing loans started to increase, the growth rate fell to 15 percent, and then 8 percent and 6 percent in the next two years. By that point, bad loans in the banking system were close to 30 percent of total lending.
If Beijing had done nothing, this credit slowdown could have forced a loan contraction, or even a recession. That would have been a blessing in disguise: it would have ushered in much-needed improvement in the quality of credit allocation.
Sadly, the necessary adjustment never happened. China's authorities instead set up four asset management companies - Cinda, Orient, Huarong and Great Wall - to take over the 「toxic」 loans, and between 1999 and 2005, they took out around 2 trillion yuan (roughly $300 billion at today's exchange rate) of bad assets. They did this at 100 cents on the dollar, without forcing the banks to take a haircut.
This had two side-effects. First, it gave everyone false hope that the banks had suddenly become solid and that there would be future bailouts