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iBond 4214 究竟值幾錢 ? clcheung

http://clcheung.wordpress.com/2012/08/23/ibond-4214-%E7%A9%B6%E7%AB%9F%E5%80%BC%E5%B9%BE%E9%8C%A2-%EF%BC%9F/

A. 香港通脹可以長期在4%以下嗎?

1. 內地通縮可能性

2, 農作物失收,明年食物通脹可能性

3. 最低工資上升可能性

4. 政府繼續派糖可能性

 

B. 4214 是零風險,只有港元定期可以比較。低額定期存款在未來3年,利息有多少?

 

Case 1: Very slow recovering

Inflation 3%

Deposit 1.5%

=> 104.3

 

Case 2: Slow recovering

Inflation 4%

Deposit 1.25%

=> $108

 

Case 3: Slow recovering, but high inflation

Inflation 6%

Deposit 1.25%

=> 114

 

Case 4: Very slow recovering, high inflation

Inflation 6%

Deposit 1%

=> 114.7

 

Case 5: Fast recovering in US/Europe, food inflation not happening, China deflation

Inflation 2%

Deposit 2%

=> 100

 

4214 現價105.8像是反映通脹 3-3.5%左右,持有現金的話,不如買iBond


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