A. 香港通脹可以長期在4%以下嗎?
1. 內地通縮可能性
2, 農作物失收,明年食物通脹可能性
3. 最低工資上升可能性
4. 政府繼續派糖可能性
B. 4214 是零風險,只有港元定期可以比較。低額定期存款在未來3年,利息有多少?
Case 1: Very slow recovering
Inflation 3%
Deposit 1.5%
=> 104.3
Case 2: Slow recovering
Inflation 4%
Deposit 1.25%
=> $108
Case 3: Slow recovering, but high inflation
Inflation 6%
Deposit 1.25%
=> 114
Case 4: Very slow recovering, high inflation
Inflation 6%
Deposit 1%
=> 114.7
Case 5: Fast recovering in US/Europe, food inflation not happening, China deflation
Inflation 2%
Deposit 2%
=> 100
4214 現價105.8像是反映通脹 3-3.5%左右,持有現金的話,不如買iBond。