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恆指Target Price??? 分析員的告白

http://albertanalyst.blogspot.com/2010/09/target-price.html

翻開報紙不難發現不少人正在談論恆指是否能夠突破22,000點，或者所謂的黃金交叉位。老實說，這並不是容易回答的問題，亦非以簡單"低利率"、"市盈 率"等因素便能回答。"低利率"亦可以暗示未來1年"低增長"和"低通漲"的來臨，而且在此環境下，企業的盈利增長可以放緩，而且週期性行業的盈利甚至可 以倒退，而造成今年"15倍P/E"便等同明年的"17倍"的情況。

無論如何，上述論調都是"估下估下"，最重要的還是如何在市場內賺到錢 ^_^

欲賺到錢，可能都是要還原基本長勝法門 ---- "Avoid the crowd"，這不單是我講的，而且是長線贏家所說的:

「低買高賣」是說易行難的法則，因為當每個人都買入時，你也跟著買，造成「貨不抵價」的投資。相反，當股價低、投資者退卻的時候，你也跟著出貨，最終變成「高買低賣」---- 鄧普頓爵士

凡是證券交易所裡人盡皆知的事，不會令我激動。在讀報紙的過程中，可以發現對我來說重要的消息，通常是隱藏在字裡行間的訊息。---- 安德烈·科斯托蘭尼

基於上述原因，現時筆者對以下投資概念興趣不大:
1) 人民幣
2) 黄金
3) 房地產
4) 內需股
5) 中資金融股 (隱藏風險尚未被人所週知)

如果相信中資金融股難以有好表現、中移動(941)和匯控(5)難以大升、內需股和本地地產股已被大眾追捧，在恆指成份股中能夠帶動大市上升的股票可能不太多。

大家可能還記得筆者曾經說過有4大類股票可能具投資價值，或者可以藉機說多一點:

1) 高息公用股/必須性的消費股(Consumer Discretionary)
防守性的高息公用股/必須性的消費股，不用筆者多說，大家都知是那些股票。若然低息環境持續，美債息率低企，這類股票真是不俗。最重要的是，它們真的不太受經濟週期影響，亦即是純"Yield Spread"的遊戲。

近日，筆者亦有留意一隻不斷受大股東增持的本地電訊營運商股票，其現金流亦足以維持4%的股息。

2) 一些還未被投機者炒賣的行頭(或是牛末熊初表現較好的股票)
例 子是"Tech"、"Railway"和"Telecom"行業。在"Telecom"行業中，筆者不太喜歡國內的電訊營運商中移動(941)和聯通 (762)，原因是兩者正面對3G的白熱化競爭，優質的電訊設備股可能是可行之選。另外，優質的本地"Tech股"可能不太多，還須小心選擇。

優質的國企農產品股可能是中短期之選，不過可能要"見好就收"

3) 一些被投資者遺棄的股票，不排除有技術性反彈的可能
選擇真是不多，而且不少被遺棄的股票有個別的企業風險，還須十分小心去觀察

4) 私有化/收購對象
一些港資(或在香港經營)股票，可能成為母公司私有化或對手收購的對象。下一間會是誰? 或許是擁有一定分行數目的中型港資銀行、或許是不斷受大股東增持的本地電訊營運商。

無論如何，祝君投資順利!!

Ztrader – Price Distribution Indicators (1) 港股博弈

To determine the support and resistance area, one method I like to use is to collect the statistics of the price distribution and display it visually on a chart.

For example. # 0135 this year, before it collapse next day:

One can draw a support line a about $15.4. Is this support strong enough ?

Turn on the Volume by Price indicator, the trading volume of the corresponding price level is accumulated and displayed as an overlay on the chart. Longer the bar, means bigger the trading volume at that price level. Green bar is the volume that closing wih a upward price, pink bar is the volume that closing with a downward price :

One can clearly see the region 15.66-15.95 , is dominated by the pink bar, which indicates an resistance more that a support, more than that, the lastest closing is below that region.

The support region from $13 to $15.6 is very weak, observed from the short Volume/Price line.

Extend the chart backward to 2012, the major support seems at $13.5.

In the case, it is better to escape rather than bet for a rebound. Follow that day, It collapsed and tried to rebound later:

Later it fall through the major support at 13.5:

Re-examine the major support at $13.5, There was a placement in 2012. If exclude that placement, support at $13.5 is not that major:

In fact the 857 corruption event was disclosed in late Aug. It seems a lot of related party already knew the investigation much earlier. The stock price stabilized after the event disclosed. If play this stock based on limited FA resources, it is a real disaster.

BTW, I am not challenging FA by TA. It is just the imbalance of information makes a pure “FA” analysis failed. Stock market is never a fair game.

Ztrader – price information overlay 港股博弈

Ztrader is now capable of adding other stocks or user defined data on top of a chart, for example, # 2333′s corresponding A shares and average monthly sales information:

# 1818 , with Gold price, on relative scale:

Note that some information has to be plotted with relative scale or same scale.

# 0669 with Home Depot

Most important, the information is stored separately for each stock, no need to re-enter next time visit the stock again.

長線投資遇上price shocks 的機率？