📖 ZKIZ Archives

金融詞彙(8)：債券一級及二級市場bond primary and secondary market和債券發行bond issuance 寗零

http://notcomment.com/wp/3872

債券一級巿場primary market
債券一級市場主要由債券發行者 issuer、認購者 /投資者subscriber/ investor 和委託承銷機構lead manager /underwriter組成,其功能在於提供一個債券的發行平台,讓市場資金能有效率地由投資者轉入融資者手中。
委託承銷機構就是代發行人辦理債券發行和銷售業務的中介人,主要有投資銀行、證券公司、商業銀行和信託投資公司等機構。它們也可能是認購者之一。
債券的發行方式有公開發行(Public Offering)、私募發行(Private Placement)和承購包銷(Underwriting)三種。
1.公開發行-是向一般市場而非特定投資者進行推銷，交易面額一般比較小，但發行額比較大。發行成本則通常比私募和承購包銷大，面對更多投資者。
2.私募發行-是直接向特定的投資者銷售新的債券，交易面額一般比較大，發行成本相對較小,發行額也相對較小。
3.承購包銷-指發行人向承銷商Lead manager/underwriter付出一定的費用，換取承銷商承擔在市場需求不足的時候，按發行價買入約定數量的新發行債券。

債券二級巿場secondary market
債券二級巿場是債券發行後，投資者轉手買賣交易的市場，一般都是由投資銀行，證券公司等金融機構作為中介人，由於沒有一個特定的交易所作為一個公衆平台去做買賣，很多時候市場透明度比股票市場低，買賣差價也相對高，流動性相對也不好。

公債發行方式-government debt issuance
公債的發行一般都是採用招標式的公開發行。投標者都是政府允許的一級交易商們(Primary Dealers)。這些一級交易商可以代客戶認購,亦可以本身認購。
政府公債在發行前會先發布該期公債招標的相關細節,包括發行期次、額度、投標截止時間、結算曰,以及其它發行條件等。
有時政府所發行的公債並非新的期次,而是重複先前所發行而目前仍在市場中流邀某一期次債券,只是增加該期次的發行額度而已。此類發行方式稱之為增額發行(Reopen)。增額發行可有助提升該期次的債券的流通量。
通常新發行的公債在二級市場中會享有較高的流通性,一般稱之為熱門券(On-the-Run Issue)。但是若有相同到期期限的新公債隨後發行,則原先的熱門券就會被取待而成為流通量較差的冷門券(Off-the-Run Issue)。

企業債券發行方式corporate issuance
企業債券(Corporate Bond)亦稱為公司債,發行者絕大部分都是已上市的企業。企業債的發行方式可分為公開發行(Public Offering) 和私募(Private Placement)兩種。
由於公開發行是向市場中的普羅大眾募集資金,因此需接受較嚴格的監管,並且要向監管機構申報核備,依證券交易法規定向投資大眾提出公開說明書(Prospectus),並委託承銷商(Underwriter)來銷售債券。
債券若採取私募方式發行,發行者不需事先申報,也無需印製公開說明書,但仍須在發行後向證監機構報備。
私募債券可由發行的公司直接售與個別的投資者,亦可透過承銷商之協助來洽特定的投資者購賣。

公開發行之債券多半是經由證券商承銷認購,在二級市場中配售給其它投資者。承銷方式可分為包銷(Underwriting)與代銷(Best Efforts)兩種。
包銷是由承銷商以承銷價格向發行公司將全部債券賈下,然後透過其銷售網絡將債券售出。
實務上債券的包銷方式會再分為餘額包銷(Standby Underwriting)與確定包銷(Firm-Commitment Underwriting)兩種。餘額包銷是指承銷商在承銷期屆滿後,如未能全數銷售完所包銷之債券,則需自行認購剩餘數額;發行公司需在承銷期屆滿後才獲得資金。確定包銷則是指承銷商先認購全數債券額度,然後再銷售;發行公司可以先行獲得資金。
至於代銷,是指承銷商利用自身的銷售管道來替發行公司銷售債券,在銷售期屆滿後,若未能全部售馨,可將剩餘的數額退還給發行人。

承銷商在企業債的銷售上都是採用洽商銷售方式將債券售與投資者。
有意願爭取承銷權的承​​銷商先決定將發行之債券的銷售價,再通過其銷售管道向特定的投資者(​​多半為機構投資者)洽商他們的認購意願。 若承銷商估量投資者願意認購之總金額足以包銷整批債券,便積極爭取承銷權。

承銷商在企業債的銷售上都是採用洽商銷售方式將債券售與投資者。
有意願爭取承銷權的承​​銷商先決定將發行之債券的銷售價,再通過其銷售管道向特定的投資者(​​多半為機構投資者)洽商他們的認購意願。若承銷商估量投資者願意認購之總金額足以包銷整批債券,便積極爭取承銷權。

承銷商的責任
通常證券承銷商在得知發行公司的融資計畫後,就會積極展開作業以爭取承銷權。他們會就包括債券發行的各種規劃、債券設計等,並透過自身銷售管道探詢市場的購買及出價意願以作為承銷報價之參考。
當發行公司最後敲定承銷商的人選後,債券發行的相關作業例如向監管機構的申請核備,公開說明書的印製,交易所的掛牌申請,律師、會計師的僱用等等都交付給受委託的承銷商來主導辦理。
承銷商的責任並不因債券承銷的結束而終止。一個負責任的承銷商通常會在二級債券市場中對所承銷的債券提供雙邊報價(Two-Way Quotation)以維持該債券在市場的流通性。
如果單筆債券發行金額過於龐大,為減低承銷風險,承銷商會籌組承銷團(Underwriting Syndicate)來分擔風險,並由一或兩家擔任領導或共同領導承銷商(Lead or Co-Lead Underwriters）。

近期最觸目的新債券發行算是十月初工銀亞洲的十年期美元債券（包涵五年call feature 贖回)。為什麼它是那麼觸目？它是首隻complied with Basel III 的銀行發的美元債券。它與2010年前的銀行發的債券多包含了新的 non-viability clause. 這條款對於任何銀行資本債券，當監管機構認將銀行將需要沖銷或注入公共資金來維持運作時，債券可以將迫減為零價值或轉換成股權，這就是所謂非可行性的角度。因為是首次的發行，大家都很想知道這個clause的加入後，債券的coupon 會是多少。結果，由工行的未償還債券來看，非可行性條款花費了約50個基點（50basis point=0.5%p.a.)。
工銀亞洲結果發行了美元500million,4.5%coupon 10 years with one off call on Oct 2018 ，rating BBB+ by Fitch.
Order book mainly from 150 Asian investors with a total of USD 2.3 billion interest.
銷售中介人除工銀亞洲也包括ANZ，BOA，Citi，Credit Agricole，Credit Suisse，Deutsche Bank，Goldman Sachs，HsBC，RBS，UBS。

恭喜工銀亞洲，它是筆者以前的一個好客戶！

Take my heart and you put it in Mike！ 朱泙漫屠龍記

http://johnchrysostom.blogspot.hk/2013/11/take-my-heart-and-you-put-it-in-mike.html

溝通技巧(10)：Appraisal時的Do’s and Don’ts 笨發

http://notcomment.com/wp/?p=9162

又到年尾，好多打工仔女都要忙著去appraisal，唔係幫人做就係幫自己做，要達到有效公司考核人員的目的，又或者要令到自己在上司的心目中留下良好印象，多少都要一些溝通技巧。

無論係大企業，還是只有數十人的中小企，甚至一條數個人的team，要令到每一個人的表現都得到合理的評核，可能的情況下檢討得失，於來年把事情做得更好，就係做appraisal的終極目標，至於會唔會有人因此升職加薪還是燉冬菇，就要睇各位的修為同表現了！

明白「點解要咁做？」下一步就係點做好，黎緊我會分數篇去講appraisal有關的技巧，今篇先講Do’s and Don’ts，即是要點做，同避免做的事情。

1. 無論平日和上司的關係如何，在appraisal的時候都應該保持平靜友好的氣氛，一些人本著告御狀或盡訴心中心的做法，甚至想乘機向老細落其他人藥，睇怕都係不必了。相反，如果平日已經好friend，在appraisal 時反而應該收起過份輕鬆的心情，以一個較認真的態度去處理。

2. 表達的內容要客觀，最好有事實甚至數據支持，以免說服力不足。即使某一些non sales 的functional business unit 如物流部門，也同樣會有相關數據，如出貨的準時率，出貨量／工作人員數目等。

3. 要講事實，而不是觀點，或者個人的感覺。一個有趣的例子是：有上司問下屬點解經常遲到，如果答因為做野辛苦或者成日要OT，就難免淪為意識流小說了！

4. 要貼題，不要失去焦點，即係所謂out of scope。Appraisal係用來量度業績，見成效 (output)，而唔不單純粹講付出幾多 (input)。比如做營業的，跑到幾多數，總係好過見過幾次客、打過幾次電或send過幾多email為合理。

5. 站在參與者立場，做appraisal的終極之道，其實只是兩個字：engagement 和 prospect。公司要員工忠心，就要有前景予以交換，如果只係一味做做做，而員工不知道怎樣才能升職加人工，長遠黎講好的員工就會離去，剩下一班庸兵廢將，對公司又是否有益呢？

下兩篇就分別從管理層和員工的角度去看appraisal。

Pump and Dump 谷高劈貨 巴黎的價值投資

http://parisvalueinvesting.blogspot.hk/2014/02/pump-and-dump.html
巴黎：

Get Everybody Moving!…(and No More Bluffing!) 朱泙漫屠龍記

http://johnchrysostom.blogspot.hk/2014/02/get-everybody-movingand-no-more-bluffing.html

當電視屏幕bigger and bigger

來源: http://www.infzm.com/content/107048

電視屏幕50英寸不是很大，只有更大的80甚至103英寸。為了更大的電視屏幕，可能攢錢買房的人們要改變計劃買豪宅了。

有個朋友開玩笑說，電視廠商應該都轉去做房地產，因為電視經濟也是房地產經濟的一部分，只有人們的住房面積再增加一倍，目前開出來的屏幕產能才能被消化掉。

“知道”（微信號：nz_zhidao）跟你談談當電視屏幕越來越大，給人們帶來的是享受還是甜蜜的負擔？

隨著液晶顯示技術的發展，市面上能看到的電視正在變得越來越薄，越來越大。別的不說，你只要打開淘寶或京東等購物網站，搜索“電視”兩個字，下面出來的熱銷產品，其尺寸都在50英寸上下。而可以選擇的尺寸，從58到80乃至103英寸，每漲幾英寸都有得挑選，消費者可以量廳裁屏，保證滿意。

只不過，雖然現在電視屏幕越來越便宜，廠商也沒法慫恿消費者一味貪大。對於50英寸以上的電視來說，最佳觀看距離是3.5-4.5米，這已經是不少家庭里電視到沙發的極限，60英寸以上就需要4.5米以上的距離才能保證看得清楚又不傷眼睛。因此，即使廠家可以不斷降低大屏幕的價格，也除非豪宅才用得上那麽大的屏幕，消費者想埋單也有心無力。

既然在尺寸上沒法讓消費者不斷更新換代，廠商就在顯示效果上做文章，但是在這上頭可以挖掘的潛力也不大了。兩年前非常高大上的4k即3840*2160分辨率的概念，現在已經是平民級尺寸的標準配置。一萬塊錢左右，國內外品牌的55英寸電視，都是超高分辨率的真4k，只是目前這超高的清晰度除了看廠家帶的樣片外，幾乎毫無用武之地。

首先，電視臺的高清頻道也不過是720P的分辨率，視頻網站還大多數是480P的標清內容，在4k電視上看慘不忍睹，就算網絡和內容源給力了，最後連機頂盒的HDMi接口的輸出也達不到4k。除了拿來看單反拍出來的高清靜態圖片外，4k的分辨率就是純擺設。

進一步來說，4k普不普及，其實已經不關電視廠商什麽事情，而是下遊通信網絡和內容供應商的事情了。如此高清的分辨率，在一般家用環境已經足夠，再大的分辨率，用戶已經無法分辨出區別。至於這幾天美國的CES 2015展覽會上，各個廠家推出的諸如曲面電視、量子點電視，都是在特大屏幕下花哨的賣點，實際上曲高和寡。那麽問題來了，用戶買回4k之後，幾乎沒有什麽理由再會去購買在顯示上更高配置的產品，廠商們以後怎麽過活？

在經濟學上，對於需求的滿足有個邊際效應遞減的說法，粗俗地說，就是當一個人餓的時候，第一個包子哪怕是鹹菜餡兒的也會很香，可當吃到第五、六七個包子已經飽了的時候，哪怕是龍蝦餡兒的包子，他也會膩歪不想要了。在電視大屏幕的視覺追求上來說，現在的4k乃至接下來的量子點，甚至8k等，就已經是視覺享受上的第八九、十個包子了。

於是我們可以看到，現在的電視行業面臨著很大的危機。有個朋友開玩笑說，電視廠商應該都轉去做房地產，因為電視經濟也是房地產經濟的一部分，只有人們的住房面積再增加一倍，目前開出來的屏幕產能才能被消化掉。

但現實是，雖然中國人民對住房的需求是永遠無法被滿足的，住房面積的增長也無論如何是比不上屏幕出貨的增長速度的。可以預見的是，哪怕你不需要，電視的主流屏幕尺寸還是會不斷變大。

進一步地，當大屏幕越來越廉價的時候，電視廠商很可能會轉型成家用建材廠商，把大屏幕當瓷磚、玻璃來賣。你家里的浴室、廚房、臥室，有可能整面整面都是由OLED做裝修的屏幕，你走到哪里，電視就開到哪里，隨時隨地給你調出信息。智能家居，很可能就是用智能來搶家居的飯碗。

上面的場景，已經不是遙遠的科幻，而是又一個正在被自我實現的預言。放眼看去，伴隨著電視屏幕越來越大的，是屏幕已經無處不在。電梯里，公交車上，樓道里，手機中，平板上，手表上，都是屏幕。人們也早已經不單單是在屏幕前呆呆地觀看信息，而是要自然地與屏幕互動。

當電視屏幕越來越大的時候，人們對屏幕的使用方式也在發生改變。早在2013年底，調查就顯示美國青少年一代黃金時段觀看youtube的比例已經高於傳統電視。在未來，成長的一代對電視的依賴會越來越小，以後不單單是春晚，甚至觀看電視本身都可能會變成一種家庭禮儀般的存在。

不過，倘若跳出電視屏幕只是單單為了觀看而存在的框框的話，就會發現電視屏幕越來越大的好處。正如科幻電影中描述的那樣，配合其他交互的技術，人們將可以使用手勢懸浮操作、語音控制等，極其自然，不需要學習地獲取信息、與他人進行交流，而不需要埋頭各看各的手機、刷自己的微信。事實上，就目前的技術來講，大屏幕、手勢檢測、語音識別等，每個單獨的技術組件都已經成熟，就看哪個產品能整合出更好的體驗。

當屏幕越來越大，未來就在眼前。

(作者為meetnow產品經理）

 

Shit and Asshole!

The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer
我们最爱的投资之道

Investing is often described as the process of laying out money now in the expectation of receiving more money in the future. At Berkshire we take a more demanding approach, defining investing as the transfer to others of purchasing power now with the reasoned expectation of receiving more purchasing power – after taxes have been paid on nominal gains – in the future. More succinctly, investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date.

From our definition there flows an important corollary: The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street term encompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but rather by the probability – the reasoned probability – of that investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk.

風險即係損失的可能性。企業的股價雖然激烈波動，可是卻不代表風險惡劣，因為只要企業的價值陸續的合理增加，它反而是最安全的投資。另一方面，固價的投資，卻隱藏了風險。

（1）固息投資
Investments that are denominated in a given currency include money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments. Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as “safe.” In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets. Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge.

High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments – and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label.


（2）黃金
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will pay more for them in the future.

The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful).

Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.

Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400
million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most
profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?

Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.

（3）Productive asset
My own preference – and you knew this was coming – is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. Ideally, these assets should have the ability in inflationary times to deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring a minimum of new capital investment. Farms, real estate, and many businesses such as Coca-Cola, IBM and our own See’s Candy meet that double-barreled test. Certain other companies – think of our regulated utilities, for example – fail it because inflation places heavy capital requirements on them. To earn more, their owners must invest more. Even so, these investments will remain superior to nonproductive or currency-based assets.

Whether the currency a century from now is based on gold, seashells, shark teeth, or a piece of paper (as today), people will be willing to exchange a couple of minutes of their daily labor for a Coca-Cola or some See’s peanut brittle. In the future the U.S. population will move more goods, consume more food, and require more living space than it does now. People will forever exchange what they produce for what others produce.


如果你在低息時期買入（政府債券，定期存款），它就是外表貼着“安全”，裡面卻是通縮無底洞，它會吸幹你的購買力。但是，如果你在高息時期買了，你就是最幸福的人了。

如果你買了高息又能年年合理增加的固息投資，你就是最XXXX幸福的人了。

或者，你認為這是天方夜譚，只有童話才有的情節。如果你認真想一想2009年初的金融風暴，輕而易舉就能買到高息又能年年合理增值的投資。（例如領匯）

或者，你認為這是太久了的馬後炮。那麼2011年末歐洲五豬的風波，你是可以找到高息又能年年合理增值的投資。（例如置富產業信託）（例如在新加波就出現了10%息的產業信託）

企業（股票）亦是如此。

問題是，你是否了解投資的真義？你是否了解自己的局限（能力）？你是否願意誠實接受自己，只在自己能力圈內作投資？


前輩的智慧：
Our country’s businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial “cows” will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of “milk” to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well). Berkshire’s goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses. Our first choice will be to own them in their entirety – but we will also be owners by way of holding sizable amounts of marketable stocks. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we’ve examined. More important, it will be by far the safest.

一只牛，亦是如此。

2011年 Charlie and I

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

In my early days I, too, rejoiced when the market rose. Then I read Chapter Eight of Ben
Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, the chapter dealing with how investors should view fluctuations in stock prices. Immediately the scales fell from my eyes, and low prices became my friend. Picking up that book was one of the luckiest moments in my life.

一只牛：
我是窮牛，當我已經全部買入，市場大升，我會很開心，然後我希望天價賣出。
人生不如意十之八九，哪有可能行運一條龍？尤其是一隻牛。
【The Intelligent Investor】--Investor and Market Fluactuation，並不難懂，平價是好朋友，波動是好朋友，人人都懂。為何大跌市，好股大平賣，卻不敢買入？這是不是似懂非懂？為何股價波動了幾個%，就急着止賺/止蝕，我們是不是似懂非懂？我要多謝Graham，我才能接觸善知識。

In the end, the success of our IBM investment will be determined primarily by its future earnings. But an important secondary factor will be how many shares the company purchases with the substantial sums it is likely to devote to this activity. And if repurchases ever reduce the IBM shares outstanding to 63.9 million, I will abandon my famed frugality and give Berkshire employees a paid holiday.

一只牛：
企業的價值是建立在

• 未來盈利
• 聰明的管理股東權益（例如回購股份）

我發現，未來盈利：

• 獲利能力強
• 成長
• 差異化優勢
  

聰明的管理股東權益：

• excellent management
• 誠實（小股東能分享）
  

Insurance
In most years, including 2011, the industry’s premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry’s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of the average return realized by American industry, a sorry performance almost certain to continue. Berkshire’s outstanding economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running some extraordinary insurance operations. Let me tell you about the major units.

At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must
(1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses;
(2) conservatively evaluate the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does;
(3) set a premium that will deliver a profit, on average, after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and
(4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained.

Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that their competitors are eagerly writing.

一只牛：
如果保險公司是由傻仔打理，後果不堪想像。
就算是國內最大的保險商，由傻仔打理，後果也是不堪想像。

各行各業，哪有競爭不激烈的？
有哪一個上班族沒有壓力？
如果公司是傻仔打理，唯有自求多福。


Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses

A key characteristic of both companies is the huge investment they have in very long-lived, regulated assets,

Both businesses have earning power that even under terrible business conditions amply
covers their interest requirements.
BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.5x.

At MidAmerican, meanwhile, two key factors ensure its ability to service debt under all
circumstances: The stability of earnings that is inherent in our exclusively offering an essential service and a diversity of earnings streams, which shield it from the actions of any single regulatory body.

Measured by ton-miles, rail moves 42% of America’s inter-city freight, and BNSF moves more than any other railroad – about 37% of the industry total. A little math will tell you that about 15% of all inter-city ton-miles of freight in the U.S. is transported by BNSF. It is no exaggeration to characterize railroads as the circulatory system of our economy. Your railroad is the largest artery.

Massive investments of the sort that BNSF is making would be foolish if it could not earn appropriate returns on the incremental sums it commits.

MidAmerican, 89.8% owned by Berkshire, supplies 2.5 million customers in the U.S. with electricity, operating as the largest supplier in Iowa, Utah and Wyoming and as an important provider in six other states as well. Our pipelines transport 8% of the country’s natural gas. Obviously, many millions of Americans depend on us every day. They haven’t been disappointed.

一只牛：
投資公用企業，就要預算它的龐大資本支出，隨時要有出差錯的準備。
所以利息保障比率，我們要懂得計。你看，BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.5x.

投資公用企業，就要選最厲害的，最厲害的才能形成壟斷局勢，才能成為強大。


Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations

A few, however, have very poor returns, a result of some serious mistakes I made in my job of capital allocation. These errors came about because I misjudged either the competitive strength of the business being purchased or the future economics of the industry in which it operated. I try to look out ten or twenty years when making an acquisition, but sometimes my eyesight has been poor.

Overall, the intrinsic value of the businesses in this Berkshire sector significantly exceeds their book value. For many of the smaller companies, however, this is not true. I have made more than my share of mistakes buying small companies. Charlie long ago told me, “If something’s not worth doing at all, it’s not worth doing well,” and I should have listened harder. In any event, our large purchases have generally worked well – extraordinarily well in a few cases – and overall this sector is a winner for us.

一只牛：
原來，巴菲特也是時常犯錯，但是他的犯錯成本非常細小，做對的回報卻很大。

我個人認為，十強之內的企業，找到對的公司的機會很高（它們就是因為做對了，才能在十強之內）。

The different between concern and DOUBTS

Last night, 20May 2010
The Dow dropped 376.36 points,3.6% to 10,068.01.

I asked what is the reason that driven such a panic?
checked the news as below;

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks around the world plunged and commodities slumped as reports cast doubts on the strength of the U.S. economic recovery and European leaders struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis.

I found the key word is: DOUBTS.
The market is doubtful, but all these news already been
well-spreaded since before now, about a month ago.
In fact, I had told myself to go short (DIRECTION, 21February 2010).

The similiar recent PAST panic;
2008 OCT 10(Bloomberg) - Stock tumbled, driving the MSCI World Index to its worst week in more than three decades, on concern the deepening credit crisis will spur the failure of more financial companies and send the flobal economy into recession. The MSCI World Index lost 3.4% to 925.18.

The key words are; on CONCERN the deepening credit crisis.

What impetus driven the last night panic;
Firstly, I think the market is over sold.
(1) The recent crisis is still fresh in everyone head, exaberting the panic, a completely knee jerk jittery upon any "unusual dropping".

(2) Any bad news last night? No, but DOUBTS.

Please be reminded, the world economy is on the recovery path.
Simultaneously, the interest rate is at the historical low. The world is flooded with cheap liduidity, searching for asset-classes that meet its' criteria to stay.

I would be trading against the stocks' dividend yield, high yield stocks would be on my shopping list for short term trading.

AGAIN, I THINK THE MARKET IS OVERSOLD.

Back to the advice from the world's richest man;

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.