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Jesse Livermore -- How To Trade In Stocks CUP

看到友Blog評論這本書，由於這書是我認為任何投資者都非讀不可的類別，所以也加入評論一下。

首先要明白這本書的寫作背景。這本書是 Jesse Livermore 在晚期投機失敗後潦倒之作，寫作動機不明，可能是想藉賣書籌錢東山再起（？）不論如何，這書總結了他自己一生以來投機的成功和失敗經驗得來的心法，當中絕大部份大原則都適用至今，十分值得學習。

很多人認為 Jesse Livermore 最後投機失敗，並且因精神問題而自殺，那他的投機方法就一無可取，其實錯過了一塊重要的寶藏。任何曾經顯赫一時的名將，總有可取之處。更何況 Jesse Livermore 這個沒有受過什麼高深教育的奇才，有一些 Schizoid Personality，最後演變成為病態的精神和婚姻問題，以致他無法全心理性地投機，導致失敗也可以理解。

首先，Jesse Livermore 他自己的說話也總結了投機的主要核心思想：

Wall Street never changed, the pockets change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.

All through time, people have basically acted and re-acted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope -- that is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.

他主張投機要有嚴肅的態度：Anyone who is inclined to speculate should look at speculation as a "business" and treat it as such and not regard it as a pure gamble as so many people are apt to do.

他的投機心法主要有幾個重點：

1. Timing is everything. You can beat a horse race, but you can't beat the races. 嚴選時機十分重要：Experience has proved to me that the real money made in speculating has been: "IN COMMITMENTS IN A STOCK OR COMMODITY SHOWING A PROFIT FROM THE START"

2. Markets are never wrong --- opinions often are. If you believe it likely to have a definite bullish or bearish effect marketwise, don't back your judgement "UNTIL THE ACTION OF THE MARKET ITSELF CONFIRMS YOUR OPINION".

3. Emotion control --- It is a human trait to be "HOPEFUL" and equally so to be "FEARFUL", but when you inject hope and fear into the business of speculation, you are faced with a very formidable hazard, because you are apt to get the two confused and in reverse positions.

4. Money Management --- Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do --

•  As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be hurry to take a profit. You know you are right, because if you were not, you would have no profit at all. Let it ride and ride along with it.
• You should protect youself by selling your stock before the loss assumes larger proportions. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking the first small loss.
• It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses.
• When the margin call reaches you, close your accont --- never meet a margin call.
• Keep cash reserve. Never make any trade unless you know you can do so with financial safety. I recommended parking fifty percent of your profits from a successful trade, especially where you doubled your original capital. Set this money aside, put it in the bank, hold it in reserve. The single largest regret I have never hand in my financial life was not paying enough attention to this rule.

5. Pivotal points --- I become a buyer as soon as a stock makes a "new high on its movement, after having had a normal reaction".  Major pivotal points can often be accompanied by a heavy increase in "VOLUME".

6. Trend following -- Susscessful traders always follow the line of the least resistance. The trend is your friend.

7. Watch the market leaders, the stocks that have led the charge upward in a bull market. Trade the leading stocks in the leading groups. Behind these major movements is an resistable force.

8. Observe sister stocks --- Understanding industry group action is essential to successful trading. The most intelligent way to get one's mind attuned to market conditions and to be successful is to make a deep study of Industry Groups in order to distinguish the good groups from the bad: get along of those which are in promising position and get out of those Industry Groups which are not.

假如讀者想在此書追尋確實的「方法」照做，將會失望。這書是心法多於手法，而在他那個年代，沒有圖表、沒有電腦、沒有便利的即時報價、即時新聞和公司資料，技術分析亦鮮有人使用，也是讀者值得要留意的地方。

不過肯定的是，他的「心法」甚至是投機的金科玉律，至今已被廣泛使用及認同。

對How to Trade in Stocks一書有點失望 山頂洞人投資手記

http://sddr2010.blogspot.com/2011/07/how-to-trade-in-stocks.html

How to Work Better

How to work better:

1. Do One Thing at A Time
2. Know the Problem
3. Learn to Listen
4. Learn to Ask Questions
5. Distinguish Sense from Nonsense
6. Accept Change is Inevitable
7. Admit Mistakes
8. Say it Simple
9. Be Calm
10. Smile :-)

How People Won’t Remember You

How China Small-Caps Can Come Clean

1 : GS(14)@2011-01-23 15:04:56

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10952955/1/how-china-small-caps-can-come-clean.html?cm_ven=RSSFeed

Rick Pearson is a Beijing-based private investor focusing on U.S.-listed China small-cap stocks. He is a contributing writer to TheStreet whose views on these stocks are independent of TheStreet's news coverage.

BEIJING (TheStreet) -- On Nov. 19, a certain company listed in the U.S. issued the following press release: (the "Company") today announced that it will restate its previously issued financial statements for fiscal years 2007, 2008 and 2009 and the first three quarters of fiscal year 2010 (including the quarterly data for fiscal years 2009 and 2010 and its selected financial data for the relevant periods), due to errors identified in these financial statements. This decision was made by the Company's board of directors, upon the recommendation of the audit committee and in consultation with management. As a result of this decision, investors should no longer rely upon the Company's previously released financial statements for these periods and any earnings releases or other communications relating to these periods. If this were a Chinese small-cap, the consequences would be predictable: widespread allegations of fraud, the stock would plummet 30%-50% and the usual five to 10 lawsuits would roll in within one week. But it wasn't a China small-cap. It was Green Mountain Coffee(GMCR_), and instead of falling, the stock price rose 11% on the day because the restatement was somehow perceived to be not all that bad. So almost four full years of finanicals can no longer be relied upon, and it's "not all that bad!?"

2010 was a rough year for Chinese small-caps, with a number of earnings restatements, allegations of fraud and confirmed outright fraud cases. Companies who have been (rightly or wrongly) impacted include Fuqi International(FUQI_), Rino International(RINO_) Northeast Petroleum(NEP_), China Sky One Medical(CSKI_), China Biotics(CHBT_), China Marine Food Group(CMFO_), China Education Alliance(CEU_) and Orient Paper(ONP_).
I provide additional detail below, but the key conclusion is simple. Obviously, there does exist fraud in some portions of U.S.- listed China stocks. However, the real problem for the larger space as a whole is that these companies are immature in the U.S. capital markets and leave themselves very vulnerable to speculation of fraud even when none exists. As a result, valuations for the entire space have been depressed.
In my opinion, this immaturity in the capital markets can be witnessed in numerous areas including: lack of emphasis on submitting correct domestic State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC) filings, use of unknown auditors, inaccurate and outdated websites, unprofessional reliance on free email services (such as Yahoo! or Gmail), as well as a lack of responsiveness to investors. None of these things are an absolute indication of fraud, but they do weaken general investor confidence and leave companies vulnerable to speculation by short-sellers. The good news is that many companies (the smart ones) are starting to realize these weaknesses and are beginning to change accordingly.
I address each of these points below.
Lack of emphasis on submitting correct domestic filings
By now, anyone who is familiar with the recent spate of short attacks is well aware that the first line of attack by shorts is to cite the fact that a company's SAIC filings do not match its SEC filings. At first, many investors fell for this ruse blindly and viewed it as concrete evidence of fraud causing massive selloffs in a number of small-cap names.

The issue is actually more complicated than that. Much has been recently written about the significance of discrepancies between SAIC and SEC filings. My experience in dealing with many China small-caps leads me to several conclusions.


1. Minor discrepancies in SAIC filings are no cause for concern due to differences in accounting treatment as well as differences in revenue and income recognition for subsidiaries and international sales.
2. Large discrepancies can be (but are not guaranteed to be) a cause for concern. I have spoken with many Chinese CFOs, and many of them have never even paid attention to their SAIC filings. The filings are a perfunctory administrative filing that is often delegated to junior non-financial staff or even outsourced to third-party filing agents. In addition, these statements are not audited by U.S. or Chinese auditors.
Therefore, in many cases they may have no relation to the legitimate profitability of the company. I do, however, view large discrepancies as a red flag and a cause for concern, partly because it reflects sloppiness on the part of management and partly because it opens up the company to short speculation or an outright short attack
3. The real filings that matter are the SAT (Tax) filings of the Chinese company. The Chinese government is focused on collecting tax revenue, and senior management does pay attention to these filings. As a result, if SAT filings do not match, it can be a cause for significant concern. Unfortunately, unlike SAIC filings, these documents are not public and in fact are almost unobtainable. It is possible to get them in some circumstances and can be a very clear indicator of the presence or absence of fraud.
4. The conclusion is a bit complicated, and many investors miss this important nuance. There are two types of corporate structure for Chinese small-caps, variable interest entities (VIEs) and foreign invested enterprises (FIEs). Getting into all of the details is beyond the scope of this particular article, but I hope to do so later. The relevant point to consider here is that for an FIE structured company, the SAIC and SAT financials are reconciled and audited in China and should definitely match. If they do not, then there exists a high probability of either SEC fraud in the U.S. or tax fraud in China. Neither of these things is good. But if the filings do all match up, then much concern can be alleviated.

The good news going forward is that companies are starting to see the havoc that SAIC filings can wreak upon their company. I am increasingly hearing that going forward, companies will make it a priority to file SAIC filings themselves with attention from senior management and that they will make sure that the filings do indeed reflect the profitability of the business which should therefore also match the SEC filings. What we will see going forward is that historical SAIC filings do not match, but 2010 and onward filings will be largely correct. Also, in my dialogue with Chinese companies, I am strongly suggesting that they make an effort to make their own SAIC and SAT filings public (disclosed on their Web sites). Whether or not this actually happens remains to be seen.

Use of unknown auditors
Many Chinese small-caps began their public existence as tiny micro-cap reverse mergers. They therefore engaged small unknown accounting firms who were cheap and willing to do the work. As the firms grow, it is obviously appropriate to switch to a top 10 auditor, or perhaps even a big four auditor. Large companies who use no-name (or even shady) auditors are a major red flag for me and there have been many times where I avoided a company that had great financials simply due to its choice of auditor.
Again, the good news for 2011 is that this is already starting to change and in this area, Chinese small-caps clearly "get it."
Based on recent discussions with China small-cap companies, I expect to see a wave of auditor upgrades during early 2011; hopefully some will be in time to process 2010 10Ks due out in March or early April. This will greatly enhance investor confidence in the space, and I believe it will help separate the good companies from the bad. Companies who are unwilling to upgrade to a reputable auditor will see their share prices suffer.
Recent examples of auditor upgrades that have recently occurred include:
It should be noted that there are more than 500 Chinese companies that trade in the U.S., and it is simply not feasible for all of them to be using big four auditors. For most of the smaller companies, I am perfectly happy with the selection of a top 10 auditor, including auditors such as BDO or Grant Thornton which have a strong and reputable China practice.

Inaccurate and outdated Web sites

It is important to remember that with many of these companies, senior management is not fluent in English and therefore does not focus on their English language website. This is often delegated to an outside firm to design on a one-time basis, and Web sites are not updated. Clearly, this is unacceptable. I have invested in companies that I felt were very solid, and in my discussions with management, I emphasized that their Web sites (which are often downright pathetic) can be a deterrent to other investors and can therefore impact the stock price.
In my experience, many Chinese companies still don't get it, and I still see many terrible Web sites even at companies that are performing very well financially. Typically, companies that use a solid IR firm will have a better-looking Web site, but that is still no guarantee that it will be updated on a regular basis. I am hopeful that this will start to change, and in some instances, I see progress, but in 2011, I still expect to see many pathetic Web sites for Chinese companies.
Also, stating the obvious, even while a great company may have a terrible Web site, a fraudulent company may have a fantastic Web site. The point is that a bad Web site is unacceptable for a company that wants to be shareholder-friendly and, despite being a triviality, it can have an impact on investor demand for the shares, thus affecting the share price.
Unprofessional reliance on free email services
When an investor tries to email the CFO of a NYSE, Nasdaq or Amex-listed company (with a market cap of perhaps several hundred million dollars) and the CFO can only be reached at wang1634@ yahoo.com, it certainly does not inspire confidence. In fact, it immediately conjures up the image of a fraudulent company operating out of someone's basement. With one company, I was so adamant about it changing to professional emails that I even bought a domain name for the company and signed it up for email. The company's excuse was that it had been using the existing Yahoo! email so long that it was reluctant to change. Ultimately, it did acquire a real domain name and now they use professional emails. It took more than a year.
Again, this is very common in China at companies big and small, public and private. It does not raise any eyebrows with investors in China at all, but for companies listed in the U.S., it is not acceptable simply due to the negative image it creates among investors. That said, even a fraudulent company (or perhaps especially a fraudulent company) can have a very professional-looking email address and not be legitimate. My point is that this is just a cosmetic issue that companies need to pay attention to.

Lack of responsiveness to investors


There is a wide gap between Chinese small-caps in terms of their responsiveness to investors. Yesterday, I sent an email to a Chinese small-cap company's internal IR person; he called me within an hour and he was very well informed. In other cases, companies are slow to respond, if they respond at all. Some of this can again be blamed on the language gap, but for larger companies, they either need to be able to respond to investors on a timely basis or cough up some money and hire an external IR firm. The ones who figure this out will trade much better than the ones who don't and as a rule I make it a point to not invest in companies who are not responsive.
The conclusion I reach from all of this is that, while there are frauds in Chinese small caps, the very widespread lack of confidence and depressed valuations for the space as a whole are a crisis of their own making. Some companies will figure this out and make the right changes and will see a benefit to their share price, others will not and will continue to languish.
My goal in 2011 will be to distinguish between the companies that can make these changes on a rapid basis and restore investor confidence. Obviously, the most important changes will be the switch to focusing on filing correct SAIC documents (and hopefully disclosing them) as well as the upgrading of auditors. I am hopeful that we will see significant progress in this area in the first quarter of 2011 and I will be sure to highlight companies that are making the right moves.
Disclosure: The author is long ONP.
The author can be reached at [url=mailto:[email protected]]comments @ pearsoninvestment.com. [/url]

---

2 : GS(14)@2011-01-23 15:05:31

中国在美上市“问题”公司如何自我救赎？
imeigu.com　2010-12-23 22:46:37　来源：i美股　原文链接　作者：　共 7 条跟贴
一位专注于中国概念股研究的美国投资者Pic Pearson 近日在TheStreet撰文表示：在中国在美上市的有些小公司确实存在欺诈行为，而投资者对整个中国概念股的信心不足和估值偏低，其实是这些公司一手造成的。如果这些公司能知错就改，立即采取有效地措施，他们的股价也会随之上涨。而那些执迷不悟的公司只能被投资者遗弃。

(i美股讯）今年11月19日，一家在美国上市的公司公布了一则消息：

“根据公司审计委员会的建议以及在跟管理层商议后，公司董事会做出以下决定：本公司将重新公布2007财年，2008财年、 2009财年及2010财年前三个季度的财务报表，原因是在这些财报中发现了错误。在公布这一决定后，投资者将不要再依赖公司之前所公布的错误财报信息。”

如果这是一家市值比较小的中国公司，我们很容易预测到可能出现的结果：纷至而来的欺诈控告将会使该公司的股价大跌30%-50%，在未来一周之内，该公司将会面临5至10起诉讼。但这家公司不是中国公司，她是绿山咖啡公司（美国一家知名特种咖啡生产商）。奇怪的是，该公司的股价没跌反而一日大涨10%，因为投资者认为他们校对后的财报看起来还不错。

2010年，对在美上市的中国小公司来说是一个“多事之年”：频繁的修改财报数据和收到欺诈指控（甚至被确认为明目张胆的欺诈）。其中涉及到的公司（无论结果是好还是坏）包括福麒国际（FUQI，5.56，-1.24%），绿诺科技（RINO，2.72，-11.11%）、东北石油（NEP，5.90，-3.44%），天一药业（CSKI，6.38，-3.33%），中国生物（CHBT，15.38，+2.33%），海洋食品、中国教育集团和东方纸业（ONP，5.53，-1.95%）。

至于原因我将会在下文作详细说明，但得出的结论很简单——很明显，确实有一些在美上市的中国公司存在着欺诈行为；由于这些公司在美国资本市场上显得比较稚嫩，使得他们很容易成为人们质疑的对象（即使他们根本就没做过任何欺诈行为）。因此，投资者这种以偏概全的思维也使得在美上市的中国概念股普遍被低估。

在我看来，这些中国公司在美国资本市场上表现出的不成熟体现在以下方面：

1）不重视提交给中国工商管理总局（下文统称为“SAIC”）的文件；

2）使用不知名的财务审计机构；

3）公司网站信息不准确或者已经过时；

4）不专业地使用的电子邮件服务（如yahoo和Gmail）；

5）对投资者不负责

尽管这些都不能被绝对指控为欺诈，但他们确实消弱了投资者对公司的信心，并且使公司容易被卖空者“盯”上。

不重视提交给中国工商管理总局的文件

最近卖空者“围攻”了几家被指控存在欺诈行为的公司，任何熟悉这几起案例的人都知道，卖空者发起的第一波攻击就是举证这些公司向中国SAIC提交的文件跟美国SEC文件不匹配。起初，许多投资者盲目地相信了卖空者的这种“伎俩”，认为这就是证明这些公司实施欺诈的证据，并随后大量抛售这些公司的股票。但这一问题事实上绝非像我们所看到的那么简单，有关SAIC文件和SEC文件之间存在差异的报道很多，但根据我的经验，我做了以下结论：

1）由于中美会计计算方面的不同和子公司和国际业务在营收、利润方面会计计算方面不同所导致SAIC文件上财务信息的细微差异不应该成为我们“担心”这些公司的理由。

2）如果上述差异过大，我们的担心就是有必要的。我曾跟许多中国公司的CFO打过交道，他们表示，他们从未对SAIC文件太过在意，因为在他们看来这些文件只是一个繁衍了事的行政文件，经常会会被分配到非财务职员手中，甚至外包到第三方代理机构。除此之外，这些文件都未受美国或者中国审计机构的审查。

在我看来，如果这些文件中的财务信息偏差很大，投资者就会给予这类公司红色警告，自然他们也就会成为被“关注”的对象。部分原因是这种偏差会反映出公司管理层的草率，而另一方面这个公司将会因此成为猎头（短期投机者或者直接做空者）“攻击”的对象，

真正至关紧要的文件是这些公司提交给中国国家税务局（下文统称为“SAT”）的文件。中国政府比较关心财政税收，因此这些公司的高官也就比较重视这类文件。如果SAT文件和SEC文件不匹配，一般会引起市场的极大“关注”。不幸的是，不像SAIC文件，SAT文件不对外公布，实际上想要得到这些文件是很困难的，不过在有些情况下，还是有机会看到这些文件，这类文件将会是判断公司是否存在欺诈行为的一个明确指标。

结论有点复杂，许多投资者都忽视了这一重要的细微差别。中国这类小型公司的组织形式分为两种，即外商投资企业和可变利益实体（是指没有持投票权的股本投资者或未能向这些实体提供足够的财务资源的公司）。需要指出的是，属于外商投资企业结构的公司向SAIC和SAT所提交的财务信息是要在中国进行核对和审查的，并且彼此之间要求绝对相匹配。如果他们存在偏差，极有可能会在美国遭到欺诈指控，或者在中国遭到骗税指控。这两个结果对公司来说都不是什么好事。而如果他们相匹配，外界对这类公司的质疑可能大大减少。

另一个好消息是，现在有许多公司的管理层已经开始认真地做起他们的SAIC文件，从而确保这些文件可以真实的反映出公司的财务盈利能力，当然也必须跟 SEC文件相匹配。我在跟这些公司管理层交谈时，我也强烈建议他们作自己的SAIC和SAT公开文件（在其网站上披露）。不过这种建议到底是否可行还有待观察。

聘用不知名的审计机构

许多中国小型公司都是通过反向收购的方式在美成功上市。因此，他们会雇用一些不知名的、便宜的、规模较小并且愿意为他们工作的会计公司。随着这些公司的不断成长，他们会重新聘用知名的会计事务所，其中就包括我们通常所提及的“四大” ，而那些仍然在聘用不知名的会计事务所的公司现在已经曝露出危险的信号。

不过可喜的是， 这些公司已经清楚地认识这一问题的严重性，他们现在已经开始做出一些变化。 我希望在2011年初，我们能看到一波更换公司财务审计机构的浪潮，并希望在明年3月份或者4月初，这些公司能在2010-10Ks中公布这些信息。届时必将大大提高投资者对整个中国概念股的信心，并将“好”“坏”公司区分开来。那些不愿更换审计机构的公司到时只能坐等股价大跌了。

在最近一段时间内，有几家公司已经付之行动更换了他们财务审计机构，如西安宝润（CBEH，6.47，+0.15%）聘用毕马威会计事务所，万得汽车（WATG，7.56，-1.05%）、UT斯达康（UTSI，2.32，+0.43%）、中汽系统（CAAS，13.87，-2.12%）三家公司聘用普华永道。

需要指出的是，在美国交易的中国公司超过500家，不要指望所有公司都能聘用四大会计事务所来充当他们的审计机构。对于那些小型中国公司来说，我想“top 10”会计事务所是一个不错的选择，如德豪会计师事务所、何均富会计师事务所等，他们在中国都有着不错的口碑。

公司网站信息不准确或者已过时

我们必须牢记，许多这类公司的管理层英语都不咋地，因此他们一般不会太在意公司英文版网站。通常他们会将设计公司网站的工作外包给其他代理公司来做，而且都是一次性的工作，网站信息一般很难更新。这是让人无法接受的，事实上我也投资了这类公司。在和这些公司管理层交谈时，我也强调，他们糟糕的网站让他们错失了许多投资者，这样会对他们的股价不利。

根据我的经验，很多中国公司仍然没有认识到这一点。我也看到，一些财务数据很好的公司，他们的网站却看起来很糟糕。通常情况下，公司会聘用一个固定的公关公司来“美化”公司的网站，但由于都是一次性的工作，无法保证网站信息的更新。我希望在2011年，这种情况能有所改变。

当然，一些知名公司的网站是看起来也是很糟糕的，同样，也有一些“有问题”的公司的网站看起来却很“赏心悦目”。但有一点需要指出的，如果公司想要讨好股东，糟糕的网站是无法被接受的。糟糕的网站会影响投资者对公司股票的需求，进而影响公司的股价。

不专业的使用免费的电子邮件服务

如果投资者想要向给在纽交所、纳斯达克或者美交所上市的中国公司CFO发送电子邮件时，只能发到如[email protected]这类地址，这势必会消弱投资者对公司的信心。通常，人们提及“欺诈”首先想到的是就是公司在地下室经营的场景。我是极力主张公司向专业邮件依赖的转变，我甚至恨不得给这些公司买一个域名，通过它来向公司发送电子邮件。但这些公司给出的理由是：他们的管理层已经使用yahoo邮件很长时间了，因此他们不愿做出变化。

这种现象在中国各类大中型企业中很常见，中国的投资者对这种事也习惯了。但对于在美上市的公司，这是投资者无法接受的，因为它会损害公司在投资者的形象。我的观点是这是一个面子工程，公司应该注意一下。

中国中小企业对投资者的反应差别很大。昨天，我给一家中小企业的投资者关系负责人发了电子邮件，他在一个小时内就给我打电话，而且很多东西都讲得很清楚。但也有些公司反应就很慢。有些可能是因为语言的缘故。但是对绝大多数公司来说，他们应该对投资者询问做出快速回复，或者可以花点钱雇佣专门的公关公司来处理。

我得出的结论是，中国在美上市的有些小公司确实存在欺诈行为，而投资者对整个中国概念股的信心不足和估值偏低其实是这些公司一手造成的。如果这些公司能“知错就改”并立即采取有效措施，他们的股价也会随之上涨。而那些“执迷不悟”的公司最终只能被投资者所“遗弃”。

本文作者为Pic Pearson 是一位专注于在美上市中国公司股票研究的投资者，目前持有东方纸业的多单。

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拔刺者: How to create a portfolio?

1 : GS(14)@2011-09-25 09:52:44

除了一些大環境因素,如遠離工業股及國泰,因如出現高通脹、高增長時代,它們的成本會抵消它們增長;如開衰退則什麼也不用說,所以2009年已是它們黃金時代了。
小弟籠统地將正經股票分為6類,真的真的別將它們一視同仁。
1.Slow growers
2.Asset Plays
3.Stalwarts
4.fast growers
5.Cyclicals
6.Turnarounds
我覺得你喜歡Asset plays&Stalwarts這兩類,前者無疑易於釋別,但卻不知何時才價值顯現,且一般難以買賣,難受重托,雖近年隨網絡的興起和港紙貶值(因一般也派厚息)而重新受重視,但仍不脫鬥長命的缺點。至於後者通常是大市值和強勁現金流,卻有感已脫出最高峰的日子,如941和美股的KO,回報遠遜Fast growers
而那些Fast growers通常會受很多雞金青睞(雖偶有倉海遺珠,但畢竟不高),而且那些股升勢是既急且有一段時日,成交由少變多,至少肯定能容下科林中的支持者。它們其實至少有1倍至10多倍的升幅,前提是不要害怕輸!一隻中海宏洋能抵＋隻希慎之敗,它們是輸有限、贏很多。
至於其它如Cyclical,亦需要拋開雙眼所見(樂天者較易做到),就是要在當下才購入如368、137、316的股票,勿被其盈利嚇怕,這也可令你產生很高回報的,但能否如以往般瘋狂,則有保留,因現在資訊較多,人們是較難瘋狂的。
說到這裡,我相信這些你肯定已是識的,而我亦相信我與你是會較市場走先一群和有主觀性的人,故會走失Turnarounds
最甜蜜的一段。小弟的例子是華晨,此股自推汽車政策(很早以前pm已說,加上管理層認購新股),但它最厲害的一段是管理層於2.5左右配出去之後,為什麼呢?原因是基金看清了它結束了虧損的生意和其負債結構才買進,這是我們領先者的死穴。
我建議湯兄有必要略略抽離股價,其實你本身的組合是(太)很安全的,強烈建議趁現在基金要錢時購入兩至三隻那些Fast growers&Cyclical,組合的一半資金吧!照計其中一隻年內贏1倍、一隻5成、一隻負兩成,已是正4成,以現在價格不難吧?
而小弟一般會在淡市時沽出那些保守型或宏洋和維奧的正數股;換來如1138、3938的股;相反如市旺時,(如去年將王冠一投稿時)購入194、656等股。其餘的,遲些再說

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2 : wilyty(1376)@2011-09-25 12:59:01

agree, 拔刺者's 積極的投資方法 is quite inspiring
不過, 可分注入Fast growers&Cyclical

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3 : idsdown(1658)@2011-09-25 13:25:33

個人都覺得湯大係有D太過保守呢, 同味皇一樣, 以高息為先

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4 : GS(14)@2011-09-25 13:28:12

保守是我的風格嘛

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How to scare by doing Share Swap ?

1 : GS(14)@2012-07-24 18:35:38

2012-07-24 HJ
...
話說近期大市靜過鬼，成交奀到無朋友，i-bank裁員瘦身傳聞此起彼落， 「唉賓架」與其坐以待斃等運到，倒不如主動出擊搵客「做刁」。「毛巾」的發債市場主管占士Bond，決定碌盡「人情卡」，在左搭右、右搭左之下，終於相約到戴孤劃吃飯。
以下就是兩人的飯局對話內容：占士Bond（揮手示意）：戴老闆，呢邊請坐。
戴孤劃：你就係「毛巾」果個發債市場主管？
占士Bond： Yes. Nice to meet you. My name is Bond, 占士Bond.戴孤劃：OK，等咗好耐？
占士Bond：一陣啫。最緊要戴老闆抽到時間嚟食飯。飲開乜野茶？普洱啱唔啱？
戴孤劃：啱、啱，唔該。
集資建廠房
占士Bond：我一直有follow 開戴老闆公司嘅動向，我聽我哋「毛巾」嘅Analyst 講，你哋計劃緊一個大pr oject喎。
戴孤劃：我哋公司呢個project好鬼正㗎，食正內地環保概念條水，而家打算先起兩個廠房。
占士Bond：咁資本開支應該唔少喎！
戴孤劃：初步預算50 億元到啦。
占士Bond：睇返你哋公司手頭現金，只有約10 億元左右，資金似乎有啲緊張喎。
戴孤劃：呢層我哋都知道。
...
戴孤劃：供股要有較大折讓，散戶先肯出錢去供，但抽水金額又唔多囉。
占士Bond：公開發售都一樣。
戴孤劃：高仁仲講過公開發售對小股東唔公平，小股東邊有咁容易幫手。
問銀行借不可行
占士Bond：同銀行借錢？
戴孤劃：你唔係唔知內地嘅情況，我哋公司只係中小型市值公司，兼且未做Rating，要同銀行借三年期以上長錢，可謂難過登天。
占士Bond：其實，你哋可以考慮發債喎。
戴孤劃：發債？如果我哋公司發債的話，實係High Yield Bond，息口閒閒地都要10 幾厘，貴到無朋友。
占士Bond：我講緊嘅係可換股債券。
戴孤劃：CB？
CB滿足公司三個願望
占士Bond：Kinder 出奇蛋可以滿足小朋友三個願望，我哋「毛巾」發行嘅CB 一樣可以滿足公司三個願望，即利息低、時間長和高價賣股。
戴孤劃：咁正？
占士Bond：假設公司發行一筆3 年期零息CB，以面值100 元售出，行使價有三成溢價。三年後，公司以109 元贖回，年息拉勻都係3 厘，低過內地基準利率多多聲。
戴孤劃：聽落好似好吸引，但CB息率咁低，有冇人買㗎？
占士Bond：戴老闆放心啦，我哋「毛巾」負責包銷，一定賣得出。
戴孤劃： 但係我聽公司嘅CFO 講過， CB 價值要Mark To Market，一旦股價高過行使價的話，P&L 就會輸到死；而且CB 被行使之後，公司要回購發行的新股，但又唔知價，好難鎖定回購成本。
占士Bond：唔駛擔心，我哋「毛巾」可以同你哋簽訂協議，順手做埋股份掉期。
戴孤劃：乜嘢係股份掉期？
占士Bond：如果三年後股價高於協定價格，我哋「毛巾」就會賠錢比你哋公司；相反，三年後股價低於協定價格，你哋公司就要支付差額。簡單來講，你哋公司只要把協定價格定於你哋嘅回購目標價格，就可以鎖定回購成本。
戴孤劃：即係話，我哋公司可以對沖CB 的攤薄效應之餘，仲可以減低贖回CB 的損失？
占士Bond：一講就明，果然係老闆。
戴孤劃（心裏就好似影迷見到「哥哥」咁歡喜若狂，嘴角微笑，心諗掂呀）：好！好！
一半資金當抵押品
占士Bond：我哋嘅股份掉期協議咁筍，當然係有一定的條件，就係你哋公司發行CB 嘅一半金額，要先放在我哋度做住抵押品。
戴孤劃（聽到一半資金要被「扣留」，即時由夢中驚醒）：等我返去考慮下先。
故事發展如何，下周的股份掉期心戰篇待續。
本欄逢周二刊出
歡迎交流上市公司的財技個案及招數， 請電郵至[email protected]。
高仁

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2 : GS(14)@2012-07-24 18:36:30

http://realforum.zkiz.com/thread.php?tid=31111
例子一如2007

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3 : GS(14)@2012-07-31 18:37:04

2012-07-31 HJ

股份掉期心戰篇   
...

返到公司之後，戴孤劃坐在大班椅之上，眺望窗外維港優美的景致，精神為之一振。他決定整理手上資料，重新審視新發展項目之要求，詳細分析不同「抽水」途徑的利弊，惟又陷入另一場心戰。

項目上馬取決三因素對於公司的新project，戴孤劃一向不是賣花讚花香之人，因為除了公司CFO 計過數覺得可行性高及回報率吸引之外，甚至連「毛巾」的An alyst 與Fund Man 都相信公司可以受惠國策。

但是，公司的新project 應否上馬，戴孤劃認為要取決於三大考慮因素：（一）資金年期、（二）利息水平、（三）攤薄效應。

（ 一） 資金年期： 由於新project 要興建兩個新廠房，再顧及公司未來發展所需，資金年期不應該太短，起碼要有三年期。如果資金年期太短的話，公司短債便會太多，gearing ratio 太高，不知那裏的投資者隨時會嚇一跳。

（二）利息水平：利息水平當然是愈低愈好，但單位數字的年息率，例如5％、6％或7％，公司尚且可以接受。如果息口太高的話，公司未見官先打三十大板，遑論可以賺錢。

（三）攤薄效應：既然公司新project 咁吸引，戴孤劃固然不希望權益被攤薄，以免被瓜分投資成果。

三個途徑籌措資金至於公司如何籌措資金，戴孤劃記得公司CFO 曾經提到三個途徑：（一）股市、（二） 銀行貸款、（三）債市。

（一） 股市：戴孤劃與高仁老友鬼鬼，學曉「吸水大法」的常見四式。

（A） 配售（Placings）：雖然公司配股「抽水」，日後毋須還錢，但目前股價低殘，不但「抽水」金額少，又有攤薄效應。大股東做生做死後，新project 做出好成績，倒頭來又要與承配人分享成果。況且公司成績好，股價必定上升，承配人「割禾青」賣股，股份同樣有沽壓。

（B） 供股（Rights Issue）：雖然供股對小股東較為公平，而買賣「威士」（Rights，供股權）更可以引入新股東，惟供股價要有較大的折讓，方可以吸引小股東參與。如果大股東參與供股，成事機會較大，但需要獨立股東批准，需時3 至4 個月，可能影響到新project 進度。此外，戴孤劃擁有較多私人業務，手上流動資金不多，公司供股便需要借錢應付，保住權益不變但要還利息，似乎並不划算。

（C） 公開發售（Open Offer）：以公開發售「抽水」，公司不會引入新股東，但製造了大蝦細的形象。

戴孤劃深信「留得青山在，那怕無柴燒」的道理，無謂做衰自己個名， 搞到日後行走「缸湖」困難重重。

（D） 代價發行（ConsiderationIssue）：戴孤劃堅信新project有前景，不值得為一時資金所需，隨便低價發行股票引資，最終引狼入board（董事會）。

以現時市況來看，戴孤劃知道this stock market is dying，所以暫時都無謂諗咁多。

內地難借香港不借

（二） 銀行貸款：要問銀行借錢，戴孤劃直指內地銀行及本港銀行。

（A） 內地：除非公司有手頭項目營運之中，否則難以借到三年期以上的長錢；至於公司所有新發展項目，銀行貸款更是免問。不過，公司還可以向銀行借短錢，借10元貸款的話，有3元要做抵押存款，實際借款只有7 元，以利率7％來計算，實際息率高達10％。

在公司債務虛增之下，B╱S 便會相當難看。

（B） 香港：本港銀團貸款多數批給國企，民營公司幾乎肯定借不到。

另外，戴孤劃以內地項目向銀行貸款，境內營運子公司不可以為境外母公司作擔保，本港銀行通常都會耍手擰頭。

（三） 債市：戴孤劃的公司市值唔算大，又未搵信貸評級機構做rating，發債「抽水」幾乎不可行。即使公司有rating， 最多是single B 或double B，起碼要超過十厘息才可以埋單。所以，公司發高息債不一定有着數，因為真正賺錢的是有free option 的「唉賓架」。

戴孤劃諗來諗去都覺得，以上籌措資金途徑不可行，莫非只有占士Bond 的CB 加股份掉期建議才work？

故事發展如何，下周《股份掉期拆局篇》待續。

本欄逢周二刊出

歡迎交流上市公司的財技個案及招數， 請電郵至[email protected]。

高仁

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4 : drbull(3010)@2012-07-31 21:25:40

好有趣,學到野!

幾時有拆局篇?

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5 : 雪貓(1200)@2012-07-31 22:15:53

好正，湯兄仲搵埋例子，等拆局篇

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6 : ezone2k(22605)@2012-08-01 00:06:07

迫貴完...

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7 : fatlone168(20094)@2012-08-01 02:06:32

留名學野

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8 : GS(14)@2012-08-01 09:21:00

睇埋高仁點寫

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9 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 10:16:48

2樓提及

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http://realforum.zkiz.com/thread.php?tid=31111
例子一如2007

雖然有啲唔同,但令我諗起之前189

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10 : GS(14)@2012-08-01 10:19:47

9樓提及

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2樓提及

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http://realforum.zkiz.com/thread.php?tid=31111
例子一如2007

雖然有啲唔同,但令我諗起之前189

1361都是啦

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11 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 10:22:03

10樓提及

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9樓提及

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2樓提及

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http://realforum.zkiz.com/thread.php?tid=31111
例子一如2007

雖然有啲唔同,但令我諗起之前189

1361都是啦

終於令我諗通189單野

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12 : GS(14)@2012-08-01 10:22:31

11樓提及

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10樓提及

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9樓提及

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2樓提及

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http://realforum.zkiz.com/thread.php?tid=31111
例子一如2007

雖然有啲唔同,但令我諗起之前189

1361都是啦

終於令我諗通189單野

如何想得通?

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13 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 10:27:24

咪住,我收回,都係唔係好通,再度下先

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14 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 10:43:45

http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/financeestate/art/20120421/16268312

之前湯蛇已post過,當時對報導半信半疑
而家睇番,似蛇果佢所講,發cb+借貨,托價配股
不過價錢唔岩+公司反對,拉倒

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15 : GS(14)@2012-08-01 10:47:58

其實公司目的是借錢派息

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16 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 10:49:13

15樓提及

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其實公司目的是借錢派息

我記得你都有講過,但有咩蛛絲馬跡令你咁諗?

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17 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 10:51:29

借錢金額同日期?

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18 : GS(14)@2012-08-01 10:58:05

時間：4月19日下午
事件：銷售文件指公司有意發行最多1.3億美元可換股債券（ CB）


http://webb-site.com/dbpub/outstanding.asp?issue=4936
30-Jun-2012   2,120,552,455   0

http://webb-site.com/dbpub/events.asp?i=493
18-Mar-2012   31-Dec-2011   Final dividend   HKD   0.4000         22-May-2012   14-Jun-2012

計計下，其實要派8億幾...股息稅匯出又要幾千萬...加埋都有大約9億...發行1.3億CB，大約實得都是9億幾...   

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19 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 11:01:28

18樓提及

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時間：4月19日下午
事件：銷售文件指公司有意發行最多1.3億美元可換股債券（ CB）
http://webb-site.com/dbpub/outstanding.asp?issue=4936
30-Jun-2012 2,120,552,455 0
http://webb-site.com/dbpub/events.asp?i=493
18-Mar-2012 31-Dec-2011 Final dividend HKD 0.4000 22-May-2012 14-Jun-2012
計計下，其實要派8億幾...股息稅匯出又要幾千萬...加埋都有大約9億...發行1.3億CB，大約實得都是9億幾...

明白,推論都有理由.
不過佢最尾都冇發到cb,咁派息$咪要自己"吟"荷包囉?

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20 : GS(14)@2012-08-01 11:15:32

銀行都借啦

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21 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 11:18:27

20樓提及

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銀行都借啦

不過息口實冇發cb咁低
加上如果銀行知係借黎派息...

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22 : GS(14)@2012-08-01 11:19:15

好多單都是咁...

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23 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 11:22:16

22樓提及

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好多單都是咁...

明白~多謝解釋! :D

唔覺意騎劫左呢個POST添:D又講番高仁

我真係好想知公司想低息借錢,除左發CB仲有咩橋:D

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24 : GS(14)@2012-08-01 11:23:05

23樓提及

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22樓提及

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好多單都是咁...

明白~多謝解釋! :D
唔覺意騎劫左呢個POST添:D又講番高仁
我真係好想知公司想低息借錢,除左發CB仲有咩橋:D

印option 等人炒起佢...

借錢好難平

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25 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-01 11:26:51

24樓提及

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23樓提及

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22樓提及

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好多單都是咁...

明白~多謝解釋! :D
唔覺意騎劫左呢個POST添:D又講番高仁
我真係好想知公司想低息借錢,除左發CB仲有咩橋:D

印option 等人炒起佢...
借錢好難平

得喎,又係一條橋,服

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26 : GS(14)@2012-08-07 14:49:21

2012-8-7 HJ
...
戴孤劃進一步研究CB 加股份掉期建議，發覺CB 年期長、息率低、攤薄效應又細，加埋股份掉期去鎖定成本，表面看來是天下無敵。不過，戴孤劃不明白「毛巾」要求公司提供現金抵押品的理由，決定搵高仁拆解內裏乾坤。

CB三大好處

與高仁會面之前，戴孤劃先與公司CFO進行研究，得悉CB 是混合式證券（Hybr idSecurity）的一種，包括純粹債券（StraightBond）及認購期權（Call Option ），CB 投資者可於特定期限之內行使權利，要求公司按兌換價發行新股。

「毛巾」的占士Bond 講過，公司發行CB 等於高價賣股，於是戴孤劃向公司CF O 追問市場實況。在港股市場，一般公司發行CB「抽水」，兌換價的溢價都相當之高，有時更接近40%至50%。戴孤劃覺得稍為安心，因為CB 投資者行使權利換股，其攤薄效應相當細，作為大股東也不會太受傷害。

CFO 又指出，一般CB 年期起碼3 年以上，對於有長期資金需求的公司，確實幫助不少。如果公司業績做到有聲有色，股價同步上升，CB 投資者悉數行使權利換股，公司甚至連錢都不用還。

利率方面，誠如占士Bond 所言，公司發行一筆3 年期零息CB，以面值100 元售出，即使三年後股價原地踏步，投資者要求公司以109 元贖回，每年平均息率都是3 厘。公司以年息3 厘借三年長錢，橫計掂計都是除笨有精。

雖然發行CB 有三大好處，但CFO 再一次提醒戴孤劃，CB 價值要Mark To Mark et，公司控制成本將會比較困難。當公司業績愈做愈好，股價愈升愈高，甚至高於兌換價，本來應該值得高興。但根據會計準則的規定，兩者股價差額卻以虧損入賬，倒頭來可能會影響股價。

股份掉期Structure有古怪

戴孤劃身為金庸武俠小說迷，腦袋立刻閃現幻想自己變成「金毛獅王」謝遜，為了練成七傷拳而狂性大發。因為這種七傷拳的拳功，每練深一層便多受一層傷害，實際上是一種先傷自己再傷敵人的武功。

占士Bond 提出的股份掉期建議，公司股價高於協定價格由「毛巾」賠償，股價低於協定價格則由公司支付差額。驟眼看來，正好鎖定成本，以抵銷CB的公平值變動虧損或回購損失。

不過，占士邦要求公司發行CB 所得的一半現金，要存放在「毛巾」處當抵押品。戴孤劃心裏反覆自問： 「股份掉期的Structure 有古怪，就好像粟米煮斑塊，不如相約高仁食飯問個究竟。」以下是高仁與戴孤劃的飯局對話內容：高仁：戴孤劃，因乜嘢事咁好請我來鏞記食飯？

戴孤劃：你食隻左脾先講。

高仁：嘩！仲要出到左脾。

戴孤劃：無事不登三寶殿，梗係有事想請教啦。

高仁：見係隻左脾份咋，即管講啦。

戴孤劃：我之前同「毛巾」嘅「唉賓架」食飯，佢知道我公司有個新Project ，特登整咗一個CB 加股份掉期嘅Proposal俾我。你睇一睇先啦！

高仁（接過文件，細閱條款）：Mmm。

不對稱的對賭合約

戴孤劃：我睇落去就覺得好吸引咁，但唔明點解要有一半錢放喺佢到囉？

高仁：呢份根本就係不對稱嘅對賭合約！

戴孤劃：吓？

高仁：假設你公司發行嘅CB 兌換價3 元，行使後變成10 股。根據股份掉期合約規定，即係有5股股份嘅現金抵押咗俾「毛巾」。

戴孤劃：係呀。如果日後股價高過3 元，佢公司「毛巾」就會賠俾我，金額相當於（P-3 元）x5股；相反，如果股價低過3元，我公司就要支付差額，金額相當於（3 元-P）x5 股。咁睇落去，好公平啫。

高仁：當然唔係啦！ 「毛巾」係有封頂價，輸極有個譜；你公司就唔同，可以係無底深潭。

戴孤劃（滿臉疑惑）：點會咁？

高仁：你睇清楚啲條款，你公司或者「毛巾」嘅任何一方，可以喺公司贖回CB 、投資者行使兌換權或公司強制換股嘅情況之下，隨時終止掉期合約。

戴孤劃（有啲不耐煩）：即係點？唔明喎！

高仁：等我打一個譬喻。如果你公司股價升到4元，你估CB投資者會點做？

戴孤劃：仲洗問，梗係換股啦，有着數嘛。

高仁：咪係囉，一個CB 投資者換股，掉期合約就立刻終止， 「毛巾」頂盡咪輸5 元（〔4元－3元〕x5股）咁大把。

戴孤劃：公司又點？

高仁：你公司失去咗原先嘅保障之餘，其他CB 投資者繼續揸貨嘅話，P&L 嘅Mark To Market Loss將會好大，輸都輸死你公司。

戴孤劃：如果股價下跌又點？

高仁：當然無人換股啦，股價食瀉藥嘅話，最多咪Total Loss 無晒15 元（〔3 元－0〕x5 股）囉。

戴孤劃：嘩！我贏就贏粒糖，但輸就輸間廠。

高仁： 「毛巾」仲有另一樣着數，就係連抵押現金嘅時間值都賺埋。

戴孤劃：好彩你幫我拆局咋，否則我變咗「水魚」都唔知。

高仁：呢餐飯抵請啦。夥計，唔該俾個Menu我。

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27 : GS(14)@2012-08-07 14:52:14

5元就是hedge番個大行蝕錢風險? 但是如果高過行使價都換晒股...咁他無得蝕，除非買CB那些是有友好，特登玩野不換股...想設局打爆個大行先有so...

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28 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-07 20:10:11

27樓提及

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5元就是hedge番個大行蝕錢風險? 但是如果高過行使價都換晒股...咁他無得蝕，除非買CB那些是有友好，特登玩野不換股...想設局打爆個大行先有so...

又或者賣CB嗰時,順帶搵啲友好認番啲
股價跌嗰時照換股,比公司cut左張swap

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29 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-07 20:11:57

不過高仁都冇講到除左發CB仲有咩好橋

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30 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 10:22:51

28樓提及

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27樓提及

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5元就是hedge番個大行蝕錢風險? 但是如果高過行使價都換晒股...咁他無得蝕，除非買CB那些是有友好，特登玩野不換股...想設局打爆個大行先有so...

又或者賣CB嗰時,順帶搵啲友好認番啲
股價跌嗰時照換股,比公司cut左張swap

咁即是變相叫老細注資，找大行做個樣

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31 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 10:23:25

29樓提及

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不過高仁都冇講到除左發CB仲有咩好橋

其實如果好野，就搞分拆上市啦..派股都好，然後先發債，或者供債券

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32 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 10:28:56

30樓提及

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28樓提及

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27樓提及

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5元就是hedge番個大行蝕錢風險? 但是如果高過行使價都換晒股...咁他無得蝕，除非買CB那些是有友好，特登玩野不換股...想設局打爆個大行先有so...

又或者賣CB嗰時,順帶搵啲友好認番啲
股價跌嗰時照換股,比公司cut左張swap

咁即是變相叫老細注資，找大行做個樣

咁都係認一啲啫,少少哋,旨在有咩事就換股黎trigger event

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33 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 10:29:55

31樓提及

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29樓提及

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不過高仁都冇講到除左發CB仲有咩好橋

其實如果好野，就搞分拆上市啦..派股都好，然後先發債，或者供債券

可能係啲新業務呢

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34 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 10:37:51

32樓提及

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30樓提及

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28樓提及

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27樓提及

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5元就是hedge番個大行蝕錢風險? 但是如果高過行使價都換晒股...咁他無得蝕，除非買CB那些是有友好，特登玩野不換股...想設局打爆個大行先有so...

又或者賣CB嗰時,順帶搵啲友好認番啲
股價跌嗰時照換股,比公司cut左張swap

咁即是變相叫老細注資，找大行做個樣

咁都係認一啲啫,少少哋,旨在有咩事就換股黎trigger event

最少都一半啦

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35 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 10:38:05

33樓提及

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31樓提及

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29樓提及

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不過高仁都冇講到除左發CB仲有咩好橋

其實如果好野，就搞分拆上市啦..派股都好，然後先發債，或者供債券

可能係啲新業務呢

新業務咪對賭業績囉

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36 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 10:50:28

如果新業務,可唔可以分拆上市?

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37 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 10:52:27

36樓提及

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如果新業務,可唔可以分拆上市?

借殼都得啦... 最多咪分錢，高招D咪分拆後派股，然後供股，咁咪吸到街外錢囉

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38 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 10:57:57

37樓提及

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36樓提及

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如果新業務,可唔可以分拆上市?

借殼都得啦... 最多咪分錢，高招D咪分拆後派股，然後供股，咁咪吸到街外錢囉

咁殼又有價,又要比一筆呢
同埋咁做會唔會太迂迴,要用好耐時間呢?

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39 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 11:05:13

38樓提及

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37樓提及

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36樓提及

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如果新業務,可唔可以分拆上市?

借殼都得啦... 最多咪分錢，高招D咪分拆後派股，然後供股，咁咪吸到街外錢囉

咁殼又有價,又要比一筆呢
同埋咁做會唔會太迂迴,要用好耐時間呢?

你D新業務邊個知幾多錢呀? 咪擺埋入去，叫個估值師估囉

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40 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 11:06:59

39樓提及

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38樓提及

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37樓提及

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36樓提及

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如果新業務,可唔可以分拆上市?

借殼都得啦... 最多咪分錢，高招D咪分拆後派股，然後供股，咁咪吸到街外錢囉

咁殼又有價,又要比一筆呢
同埋咁做會唔會太迂迴,要用好耐時間呢?

你D新業務邊個知幾多錢呀? 咪擺埋入去，叫個估值師估囉

借殼上市+供股其實時間會唔會好耐?

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41 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 11:08:10

40樓提及

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39樓提及

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38樓提及

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37樓提及

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36樓提及

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如果新業務,可唔可以分拆上市?

借殼都得啦... 最多咪分錢，高招D咪分拆後派股，然後供股，咁咪吸到街外錢囉

咁殼又有價,又要比一筆呢
同埋咁做會唔會太迂迴,要用好耐時間呢?

你D新業務邊個知幾多錢呀? 咪擺埋入去，叫個估值師估囉

借殼上市+供股其實時間會唔會好耐?

其實借殼就是重大收購，一般都幾個月，供股又要一兩個月，但可以同時行嘛

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42 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 11:10:16

明白,咁講真發cb,借錢又真係快好多喎

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43 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 11:11:18

42樓提及

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明白,咁講真發cb,借錢又真係快好多喎

但是你真是走投無路先做啦...

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44 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 11:13:59

哈哈~~~冇錯~~~

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45 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 11:14:39

44樓提及

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哈哈~~~冇錯~~~

有錢就不如叫公司發張CB 畀自己好過啦

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46 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 11:16:24

所以我覺得我嗰招得架~~~等於做左個option spread嘛~哈

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47 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 11:18:02

46樓提及

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所以我覺得我嗰招得架~~~等於做左個option spread嘛~哈

即是印option 炒股那招

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48 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 11:20:25

47樓提及

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46樓提及

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所以我覺得我嗰招得架~~~等於做左個option spread嘛~哈

即是印option 炒股那招

又有啲唔同喎~

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49 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 11:22:02

48樓提及

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47樓提及

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46樓提及

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所以我覺得我嗰招得架~~~等於做左個option spread嘛~哈

即是印option 炒股那招

又有啲唔同喎~

邊招睇唔明

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50 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 11:32:33

49樓提及

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48樓提及

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47樓提及

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46樓提及

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所以我覺得我嗰招得架~~~等於做左個option spread嘛~哈

即是印option 炒股那招

又有啲唔同喎~

邊招睇唔明

你話發option等人炒起佢,係咪即係老闆自己認option->炒起正股->行使獲利?

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51 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 11:41:40

50樓提及

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49樓提及

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48樓提及

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47樓提及

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所以我覺得我嗰招得架~~~等於做左個option spread嘛~哈

即是印option 炒股那招

又有啲唔同喎~

邊招睇唔明

你話發option等人炒起佢,係咪即係老闆自己認option->炒起正股->行使獲利?

唔得啦，至少畀少少甜頭D基金仔至得

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52 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 13:02:06

51樓提及

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50樓提及

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49樓提及

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48樓提及

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47樓提及

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所以我覺得我嗰招得架~~~等於做左個option spread嘛~哈

即是印option 炒股那招

又有啲唔同喎~

邊招睇唔明

你話發option等人炒起佢,係咪即係老闆自己認option->炒起正股->行使獲利?

唔得啦，至少畀少少甜頭D基金仔至得

所以印Option=long call
發cb + swap= short put
發cb + swap + 自己認少少cb = long call + short put = spread

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53 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 13:16:34

印option ，即是我賣 call option 畀人 wor ，唔是short call 咩?

基金買cb =就是bond + long call ，做swap 即只是買bond

如果公司發cb，大股東認左，又做埋swap，整體即是short call+ bond ?

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54 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 13:37:17

53樓提及

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印option ，即是我賣 call option 畀人 wor ，唔是short call 咩?
基金買cb =就是bond + long call ，做swap 即只是買bond
如果公司發cb，大股東認左，又做埋swap，整體即是short call+ bond ?

因為我以為印option係大股東自己買,然後炒起個市行使套現所以=long call
如果賣option套現,套唔到好多咋喎

2.喺買cb嘅投資者嘅角度睇,cb係bond + long call,公司角度即係short call. bond呢part可以分開睇,因為股票升跌同bond冇關
加多個swap,喺投資者角度睇,同short sell冇分別,股票升輸錢,股票跌賺錢,喺公司角度睇,即係long stock

而家我哋用公司老闆角度睇: short call + long stock = short put,市跌公司輸到扒地

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55 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 13:50:00

54樓提及

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53樓提及

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印option ，即是我賣 call option 畀人 wor ，唔是short call 咩?
基金買cb =就是bond + long call ，做swap 即只是買bond
如果公司發cb，大股東認左，又做埋swap，整體即是short call+ bond ?

因為我以為印option係大股東自己買,然後炒起個市行使套現所以=long call
如果賣option套現,套唔到好多咋喎
2.喺買cb嘅投資者嘅角度睇,cb係bond + long call,公司角度即係short call. bond呢part可以分開睇,因為股票升跌同bond冇關
加多個swap,喺投資者角度睇,同short sell冇分別,股票升輸錢,股票跌賺錢,喺公司角度睇,即係long stock
而家我哋用公司老闆角度睇: short call + long stock = short put,市跌公司輸到扒地

唔是wor，公司印option，大股東接option咪中和左囉...

如果印cb，bond唔計啦，大股東接option，公司沽call 又是netural

直至呢個時候，swap 左，大股東畀一半貨源，公司唔關事，即是他short sell左一半，假設他做晒，其實他只是short call 左一半，但是他有貨補番畀人，即是呢個是一半的covered short call。如果股價真是跌，又按晒D股畀人斬倉，他要迫住沽貨，咪賤價供股還番D bond咪搞掂囉

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56 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 13:54:02

你試下砌個payoff graph出黎~
short call + long stock = covered call
covered call 嘅 payoff其實同淨short put係一樣的

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covered_call

同埋個市跌嘅話係要公司比錢毛巾喎,swap係講cash

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57 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 13:55:37

56樓提及

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你試下砌個payoff graph出黎~
short call + long stock = covered call
covered call 嘅 payoff其實同淨short put係一樣的
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covered_call
同埋個市跌嘅話係要公司比錢毛巾喎,swap係講cash

但貨源是他自己控制啊...你要明白呢一點，其實大股東只要財力夠真是無得點輸，輸的都是小股東

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58 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 13:58:25

如果係咁,點解2007嗰單搞成咁?

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59 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 13:59:44

58樓提及

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如果係咁,點解2007嗰單搞成咁?

老細無接到自己D CB，同埋他根本無錢供

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60 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 14:00:09

供左以後就無人買佢D股票，當他老千，呢招絕得滯

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61 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 14:03:48

咪係囉

高仁嗰個case,就係我頭先講嘅,公司short put
的確大股東係有財力,但唔係個個肯攞錢出黎

如果好似我所講,公司肯搵人認返少少cb,股票跌嗰時都照樣行使,然後stop左張swap,咁就已經封左底

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62 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 14:05:20

61樓提及

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咪係囉
高仁嗰個case,就係我頭先講嘅,公司short put
的確大股東係有財力,但唔係個個肯攞錢出黎
如果好似我所講,公司肯搵人認返少少cb,股票跌嗰時都照樣行使,然後stop左張swap,咁就已經封左底

咁點解仲要找投行做D咁複雜的野，直接發張bond畀大股東或者友好就得啦

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63 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 14:05:45

60樓提及

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供左以後就無人買佢D股票，當他老千，呢招絕得滯

就係囉,好地地一間公司唔會想去到咁
佢本身都係想借錢搞生意啫,唔係想good水

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64 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 14:08:02

63樓提及

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60樓提及

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供左以後就無人買佢D股票，當他老千，呢招絕得滯

就係囉,好地地一間公司唔會想去到咁
佢本身都係想借錢搞生意啫,唔係想good水

但是反過頭想，供股其實都幾公平...渣打都供過股啦

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65 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 14:08:15

62樓提及

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61樓提及

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咪係囉
高仁嗰個case,就係我頭先講嘅,公司short put
的確大股東係有財力,但唔係個個肯攞錢出黎
如果好似我所講,公司肯搵人認返少少cb,股票跌嗰時都照樣行使,然後stop左張swap,咁就已經封左底

咁點解仲要找投行做D咁複雜的野，直接發張bond畀大股東或者友好就得啦

我諗原因有幾個
1.未必係個客要求咁做,可能佢同投行講,人哋咪幫佢度橋食佢囉
2.大股東唔想出錢/冇錢
3.友好唔想出錢/錢/冇朋友:P

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66 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 14:09:16

65樓提及

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62樓提及

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61樓提及

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咪係囉
高仁嗰個case,就係我頭先講嘅,公司short put
的確大股東係有財力,但唔係個個肯攞錢出黎
如果好似我所講,公司肯搵人認返少少cb,股票跌嗰時都照樣行使,然後stop左張swap,咁就已經封左底

咁點解仲要找投行做D咁複雜的野，直接發張bond畀大股東或者友好就得啦

我諗原因有幾個
1.未必係個客要求咁做,可能佢同投行講,人哋咪幫佢度橋食佢囉
2.大股東唔想出錢/冇錢
3.友好唔想出錢/錢/冇朋友:P

咁不如做少單啦，咁煩的，老細多心真是給人吃，投資見你無錢，博你唔識野

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67 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 14:11:26

64樓提及

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63樓提及

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60樓提及

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供左以後就無人買佢D股票，當他老千，呢招絕得滯

就係囉,好地地一間公司唔會想去到咁
佢本身都係想借錢搞生意啫,唔係想good水

但是反過頭想，供股其實都幾公平...渣打都供過股啦

其實都係架,不過可能慢哩...
投行由傾到做可能一個月都唔使...我估

同埋供股,又係要郁到大股東個荷包

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68 : kobe bryant(28492)@2012-08-08 14:12:00

勁...留名學嘢...
全部字都識, 就係睇唔明...

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69 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 14:14:02

66樓提及

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65樓提及

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62樓提及

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61樓提及

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咪係囉
高仁嗰個case,就係我頭先講嘅,公司short put
的確大股東係有財力,但唔係個個肯攞錢出黎
如果好似我所講,公司肯搵人認返少少cb,股票跌嗰時都照樣行使,然後stop左張swap,咁就已經封左底

咁點解仲要找投行做D咁複雜的野，直接發張bond畀大股東或者友好就得啦

我諗原因有幾個
1.未必係個客要求咁做,可能佢同投行講,人哋咪幫佢度橋食佢囉
2.大股東唔想出錢/冇錢
3.友好唔想出錢/錢/冇朋友:P

咁不如做少單啦，咁煩的，老細多心真是給人吃，投資見你無錢，博你唔識野

你呢句真係不能同意更多
投行真係好鍾意出埋晒啲怪雞野,只要佢哋先明
做老闆嘅真係最好回歸基本步,用最簡單嘅方法集資就好

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70 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 14:15:13

67樓提及

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64樓提及

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63樓提及

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60樓提及

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供左以後就無人買佢D股票，當他老千，呢招絕得滯

就係囉,好地地一間公司唔會想去到咁
佢本身都係想借錢搞生意啫,唔係想good水

但是反過頭想，供股其實都幾公平...渣打都供過股啦

其實都係架,不過可能慢哩...
投行由傾到做可能一個月都唔使...我估
同埋供股,又係要郁到大股東個荷包

有幾難呢，在供股前後，買大股東是但一項和地產相關的業務就搞掂，只要有收益就得...

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71 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 14:15:14

68樓提及

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勁...留名學嘢...
全部字都識, 就係睇唔明...

大家咁話,我哋都係跟湯SIR學野的好兒童

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72 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 14:16:05

71樓提及

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68樓提及

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勁...留名學嘢...
全部字都識, 就係睇唔明...

大家咁話,我哋都係跟湯SIR學野的好兒童

我跟你學野jer

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73 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 14:24:34

70樓提及

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67樓提及

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64樓提及

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63樓提及

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60樓提及

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供左以後就無人買佢D股票，當他老千，呢招絕得滯

就係囉,好地地一間公司唔會想去到咁
佢本身都係想借錢搞生意啫,唔係想good水

但是反過頭想，供股其實都幾公平...渣打都供過股啦

其實都係架,不過可能慢哩...
投行由傾到做可能一個月都唔使...我估
同埋供股,又係要郁到大股東個荷包

有幾難呢，在供股前後，買大股東是但一項和地產相關的業務就搞掂，只要有收益就得...

呢方面我真係唔知了...可能重點係,公司同大股東都係好純品,冇諗咁多古怪野

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74 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 14:25:12

72樓提及

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71樓提及

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68樓提及

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勁...留名學嘢...
全部字都識, 就係睇唔明...

大家咁話,我哋都係跟湯SIR學野的好兒童

我跟你學野jer

咪咁講啦,期權版大把高手啦
我只識紙上談兵

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75 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 14:29:54

73樓提及

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70樓提及

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67樓提及

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64樓提及

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63樓提及

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60樓提及

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供左以後就無人買佢D股票，當他老千，呢招絕得滯

就係囉,好地地一間公司唔會想去到咁
佢本身都係想借錢搞生意啫,唔係想good水

但是反過頭想，供股其實都幾公平...渣打都供過股啦

其實都係架,不過可能慢哩...
投行由傾到做可能一個月都唔使...我估
同埋供股,又係要郁到大股東個荷包

有幾難呢，在供股前後，買大股東是但一項和地產相關的業務就搞掂，只要有收益就得...

呢方面我真係唔知了...可能重點係,公司同大股東都係好純品,冇諗咁多古怪野

其實注入資產又唔算唔純品的，價錢合理我好歡迎

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76 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 14:33:11

75樓提及

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73樓提及

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70樓提及

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67樓提及

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64樓提及

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63樓提及

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60樓提及

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供左以後就無人買佢D股票，當他老千，呢招絕得滯

就係囉,好地地一間公司唔會想去到咁
佢本身都係想借錢搞生意啫,唔係想good水

但是反過頭想，供股其實都幾公平...渣打都供過股啦

其實都係架,不過可能慢哩...
投行由傾到做可能一個月都唔使...我估
同埋供股,又係要郁到大股東個荷包

有幾難呢，在供股前後，買大股東是但一項和地產相關的業務就搞掂，只要有收益就得...

呢方面我真係唔知了...可能重點係,公司同大股東都係好純品,冇諗咁多古怪野

其實注入資產又唔算唔純品的，價錢合理我好歡迎

都同意:D

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77 : ezone2k(22605)@2012-08-08 23:35:30

贏就贏粒糖，但輸就輸間廠....

2007 迫貴完..

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78 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 23:45:48

我又喺度諗,其實啲投行咁做法,冇事由自可,有事等於同上市公司反面
以後唔使旨意有生意

不過可能上市公司何其多...

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79 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 23:50:18

78樓提及

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我又喺度諗,其實啲投行咁做法,冇事由自可,有事等於同上市公司反面
以後唔使旨意有生意
不過可能上市公司何其多...

他們D人就是好短視，要業績換升職，過幾年轉公司，公司D人又換得七七八八，大家唔認得大家，無所謂啦

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80 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 23:51:48

又係喎~~~真係超現實
都岩嘅~bonus都係快啲落袋好,出年仲係咪喺度做都未知,哈哈

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81 : GS(14)@2012-08-08 23:57:43

80樓提及

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又係喎~~~真係超現實
都岩嘅~bonus都係快啲落袋好,出年仲係咪喺度做都未知,哈哈

做唔好畀人炒呀，所以掠你一筆過左年先

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82 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-08 23:58:48

81樓提及

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80樓提及

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又係喎~~~真係超現實
都岩嘅~bonus都係快啲落袋好,出年仲係咪喺度做都未知,哈哈

做唔好畀人炒呀，所以掠你一筆過左年先

冇錯~
其實佢哋只係表現人性啫~呢啲我哋真係要學下

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83 : GS(14)@2012-08-09 00:02:10

82樓提及

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81樓提及

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80樓提及

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又係喎~~~真係超現實
都岩嘅~bonus都係快啲落袋好,出年仲係咪喺度做都未知,哈哈

做唔好畀人炒呀，所以掠你一筆過左年先

冇錯~
其實佢哋只係表現人性啫~呢啲我哋真係要學下

不過各為其主，但做得的，你賤我都賤

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84 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-09 00:04:57

83樓提及

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82樓提及

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81樓提及

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80樓提及

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又係喎~~~真係超現實
都岩嘅~bonus都係快啲落袋好,出年仲係咪喺度做都未知,哈哈

做唔好畀人炒呀，所以掠你一筆過左年先

冇錯~
其實佢哋只係表現人性啫~呢啲我哋真係要學下

不過各為其主，但做得的，你賤我都賤

有時就係唔識唔肯唔敢賺到盡
係人都知搞劏房好過買豪宅
不過敢發大黎搞又有幾多個?

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85 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-09 00:05:47

有啲離題添:P

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86 : GS(14)@2012-08-09 00:06:46

84樓提及

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83樓提及

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82樓提及

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81樓提及

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80樓提及

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又係喎~~~真係超現實
都岩嘅~bonus都係快啲落袋好,出年仲係咪喺度做都未知,哈哈

做唔好畀人炒呀，所以掠你一筆過左年先

冇錯~
其實佢哋只係表現人性啫~呢啲我哋真係要學下

不過各為其主，但做得的，你賤我都賤

有時就係唔識唔肯唔敢賺到盡
係人都知搞劏房好過買豪宅
不過敢發大黎搞又有幾多個?

你夠膽踩界，人地唔夠膽，你就贏了

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87 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-09 00:12:10

86樓提及

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84樓提及

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83樓提及

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82樓提及

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81樓提及

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80樓提及

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又係喎~~~真係超現實
都岩嘅~bonus都係快啲落袋好,出年仲係咪喺度做都未知,哈哈

做唔好畀人炒呀，所以掠你一筆過左年先

冇錯~
其實佢哋只係表現人性啫~呢啲我哋真係要學下

不過各為其主，但做得的，你賤我都賤

有時就係唔識唔肯唔敢賺到盡
係人都知搞劏房好過買豪宅
不過敢發大黎搞又有幾多個?

你夠膽踩界，人地唔夠膽，你就贏了

冇錯,其實喺香港要搵錢,唔係完全冇機會
敢打肯打刷邊球就得了

睇下而家幾多人爬上高位都比傳媒爆晒出黎就知

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88 : GS(14)@2012-08-09 00:21:22

87樓提及

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86樓提及

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84樓提及

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83樓提及

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82樓提及

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81樓提及

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80樓提及

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又係喎~~~真係超現實
都岩嘅~bonus都係快啲落袋好,出年仲係咪喺度做都未知,哈哈

做唔好畀人炒呀，所以掠你一筆過左年先

冇錯~
其實佢哋只係表現人性啫~呢啲我哋真係要學下

不過各為其主，但做得的，你賤我都賤

有時就係唔識唔肯唔敢賺到盡
係人都知搞劏房好過買豪宅
不過敢發大黎搞又有幾多個?

你夠膽踩界，人地唔夠膽，你就贏了

冇錯,其實喺香港要搵錢,唔係完全冇機會
敢打肯打刷邊球就得了
睇下而家幾多人爬上高位都比傳媒爆晒出黎就知

你真是覺得你乾淨先做官，唔乾淨就算啦

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89 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-09 00:23:13

88樓提及

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87樓提及

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80樓提及

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又係喎~~~真係超現實
都岩嘅~bonus都係快啲落袋好,出年仲係咪喺度做都未知,哈哈

做唔好畀人炒呀，所以掠你一筆過左年先

冇錯~
其實佢哋只係表現人性啫~呢啲我哋真係要學下

不過各為其主，但做得的，你賤我都賤

有時就係唔識唔肯唔敢賺到盡
係人都知搞劏房好過買豪宅
不過敢發大黎搞又有幾多個?

你夠膽踩界，人地唔夠膽，你就贏了

冇錯,其實喺香港要搵錢,唔係完全冇機會
敢打肯打刷邊球就得了
睇下而家幾多人爬上高位都比傳媒爆晒出黎就知

你真是覺得你乾淨先做官，唔乾淨就算啦

真係唔知政府仲可以保得幾多個

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90 : GS(14)@2012-08-09 00:27:04

不如做之前叫毒果做body check 先

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91 : kobe bryant(28492)@2012-08-09 10:06:46

即係話,以後邊個做官, 蘋果話事...
邊個做特首都係蘋果同民調話事?

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92 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-09 10:45:07

91樓提及

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即係話,以後邊個做官, 蘋果話事...
邊個做特首都係蘋果同民調話事?

此言差矣,做body check同係咪話事,係兩件事黎喎
我覺得而家真係好靠傳媒監察,否則市民根本冇可能知官員嘅誠信

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93 : kobe bryant(28492)@2012-08-09 11:07:52

前題係傳媒要中立…點睇蘋果都唔中立啦…
打開港聞版, 都係負面野, 反政府…都無心機睇…
根本就係攞住利器, 自己做法官判案…

佢既COVERAGE 唔夠全面, 佢既角度太偏頗.
如果你只睇蘋果, 你會中毒…
叫佢地做DD??? 唔係飯民, 全部唔全格, 因為政治成分唔好 (民革FEEL)
共產黨點會俾個國民黨(OR法輪功)人做國家主席呀…
黨派有政治立場, 可以…但傳媒要中立

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94 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-09 11:18:03

93樓提及

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前題係傳媒要中立…點睇蘋果都唔中立啦…
打開港聞版, 都係負面野, 反政府…都無心機睇…
根本就係攞住利器, 自己做法官判案…
佢既COVERAGE 唔夠全面, 佢既角度太偏頗.
如果你只睇蘋果, 你會中毒…
叫佢地做DD??? 唔係飯民, 全部唔全格, 因為政治成分唔好 (民革FEEL)
共產黨點會俾個國民黨(OR法輪功)人做國家主席呀…
黨派有政治立場, 可以…但傳媒要中立

某程度上同意,所以其實真係好睇讀者嘅個人嘅判斷
要識得分咩係評論,咩係事實

不能否認嘅係,好多人都唔識

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95 : reference(1610)@2012-08-09 11:18:36

1. Is it a must for you to buy Apple Daily?
2. Is Apple Daily the only newspaper in HK?
3. Are you influenced by the Apple Daily? e.g. would you kill ppl if Apple Daily ask you to do so?

In HK, ppl can choose any info (from WSJ, AppleDaily to Ren Wei Bao) they like and there is no restriction in internet.

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96 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-09 11:21:35

95樓提及

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1. Is it a must for you to buy Apple Daily?
2. Is Apple Daily the only newspaper in HK?
3. Are you influenced by the Apple Daily? e.g. would you kill ppl if Apple Daily ask you to do so?
In HK, ppl can choose any info (from WSJ, AppleDaily to Ren Wei Bao) they like and there is no restriction in internet.

講得好好~ :D

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97 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-09 11:22:34

又比我搞到有啲離題添, SORRY Orz...

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98 : kobe bryant(28492)@2012-08-09 11:32:38

只係想講, 唔可以只叫蘋果做BODY CHECK / DD…睇報紙都唔可以只睇佢…
佢可能係香港第一份免費報紙…都市未黎時, 佢已經網上任睇…

想問個問題…貨品應該有傾銷, 可以入罪?…報紙有無傾銷?點定義?可否逆向思考, 佢蝕錢=傾銷?

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99 : reference(1610)@2012-08-09 12:20:54

98樓提及

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只係想講, 唔可以只叫蘋果做BODY CHECK / DD…睇報紙都唔可以只睇佢…
佢可能係香港第一份免費報紙…都市未黎時, 佢已經網上任睇…
想問個問題…貨品應該有傾銷, 可以入罪?…報紙有無傾銷?點定義?可否逆向思考, 佢蝕錢=傾銷?

Using your logic, 大公報/文匯報 are earlier than Apple/Metro as it is free for viewing for long long time...you can collect their newspaper in many pro-PRC entities.

Using your logic, 大公報文匯報 are criminal as they are financially supported by the central gov't or otherwise they have been closed for long long time.

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100 : GS(14)@2012-08-09 12:31:40

99樓提及

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98樓提及

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只係想講, 唔可以只叫蘋果做BODY CHECK / DD…睇報紙都唔可以只睇佢…
佢可能係香港第一份免費報紙…都市未黎時, 佢已經網上任睇…
想問個問題…貨品應該有傾銷, 可以入罪?…報紙有無傾銷?點定義?可否逆向思考, 佢蝕錢=傾銷?

Using your logic, 大公報/文匯報 are earlier than Apple/Metro as it is free for viewing for long long time...you can collect their newspaper in many pro-PRC entities.
Using your logic, 大公報文匯報 are criminal as they are financially supported by the central gov't or otherwise they have been closed for long long time.

仲有新晚報，但是生果無疑是最激烈，如果他做完bodycheck睇睇最差的事的點，就算拆都有得拆嘛，大公文匯好難做到呢點

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101 : GS(14)@2012-08-09 12:33:12

95樓提及

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1. Is it a must for you to buy Apple Daily?
2. Is Apple Daily the only newspaper in HK?
3. Are you influenced by the Apple Daily? e.g. would you kill ppl if Apple Daily ask you to do so?
In HK, ppl can choose any info (from WSJ, AppleDaily to Ren Wei Bao) they like and there is no restriction in internet.

雖然我都好唔想睇生果D港聞，但是至少可以知道最差的情況是點，文匯雖然太溫和，但你睇他無乜用，因為你睇你自己之嘛

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102 : kobe bryant(28492)@2012-08-09 14:07:44

我只係提出疑問, 睇下有無人可以解答到…不設政治立場…
我每朝都睇蘋果, 抽水講句, 可以話係愛之深, 責之切 !
佢揭時弊, 搞慈悲應急基金, 大家係認同既…

I am willing to have discussion rationally, if any of my inappropriate wording displease your religion / belief / political orientation; trust me, I am not intend to.

Applying your logic, all newspaper are free if you can read them in public libraries.
Applying your logic again, you are implying reporters can give comments when “reporting” an event.
To my knowledge, reporter should not give opinions, but editorial does.

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103 : GS(14)@2012-08-09 14:11:54

解答甚麼?

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104 : kobe bryant(28492)@2012-08-09 14:17:26

103樓提及

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解答甚麼?

如何介定傾銷 / 報紙傾銷....

by the way, it is my bad not to define what is " free newspaper".
actually, i am not able to define...anyone can help on this?

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105 : GS(14)@2012-08-09 14:23:40

104樓提及

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103樓提及

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解答甚麼?

如何介定傾銷 / 報紙傾銷....
by the way, it is my bad not to define what is " free newspaper".
actually, i am not able to define...anyone can help on this?

以價錢來睇，每一份都是傾銷緊

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106 : reference(1610)@2012-08-09 14:45:55

102樓提及

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我只係提出疑問, 睇下有無人可以解答到…不設政治立場…
我每朝都睇蘋果, 抽水講句, 可以話係愛之深, 責之切 !
佢揭時弊, 搞慈悲應急基金, 大家係認同既…
I am willing to have discussion rationally, if any of my inappropriate wording displease your religion / belief / political orientation; trust me, I am not intend to.
Applying your logic, all newspaper are free if you can read them in public libraries.
Applying your logic again, you are implying reporters can give comments when “reporting” an event.
To my knowledge, reporter should not give opinions, but editorial does.

Incorrect, you can pick a 大公報/文匯報 for free near the lobby of many PRC entities, which is not a news. I don't think we can pick Apple Daily for free.

Which words of mine lead you to have such implication?

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107 : reference(1610)@2012-08-09 15:10:26

105樓提及

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104樓提及

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103樓提及

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解答甚麼?

如何介定傾銷 / 報紙傾銷....
by the way, it is my bad not to define what is " free newspaper".
actually, i am not able to define...anyone can help on this?

以價錢來睇，每一份都是傾銷緊

You're correct.

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108 : kobe bryant(28492)@2012-08-09 16:49:15

106樓提及

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102樓提及

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我只係提出疑問, 睇下有無人可以解答到…不設政治立場…
我每朝都睇蘋果, 抽水講句, 可以話係愛之深, 責之切 !
佢揭時弊, 搞慈悲應急基金, 大家係認同既…
I am willing to have discussion rationally, if any of my inappropriate wording displease your religion / belief / political orientation; trust me, I am not intend to.
Applying your logic, all newspaper are free if you can read them in public libraries.
Applying your logic again, you are implying reporters can give comments when “reporting” an event.
To my knowledge, reporter should not give opinions, but editorial does.

Incorrect, you can pick a 大公報/文匯報 for free near the lobby of many PRC entities, which is not a news. I don't think we can pick Apple Daily for free.
Which words of mine lead you to have such implication?

你點define 免費報紙...
無賴d講句, 企酒樓/麥當勞都成日見人執到報紙啦...唔通又全部都係免費啦喎...
我睇完份報紙, 日日都係丟落同一個垃圾桶, 你知道到左, 日日去執, 又係免費咩...
我日日睇蘋果, 佢d標題已經唔夠中性啦...你話佢的報導是中性嗎?

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109 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 11:11:31

2012-8-13 HJ
....

碧桂園輸10億斬纜

要數上市公司的經典案例，高仁相信被市場戲稱為「逼爆園」的碧桂園（2007 ），絕對深深體會到由「唉賓架」提出的CB 加股份掉期建議，對集團日後業績所造成的嚴重負面影響，而集團寧願輸10億元亦要快快斬纜。

碧桂園勁蝕10 億元的源頭，是始於其2008年2月發行CB 之際，竟然與「唉賓架」訂立了一份股份掉期的對賭合約所致。當年集團發行了一筆5 億美元（39億港元）以人民幣計價及以美元結算的CB，年期為5 年，息率2.5%，初步換股價9.05 元；此外，集團與美林訂立一份以現金結算的股份掉期交易，股份價值最多達2.5 億美元（19.5億港元）。

根據股份掉期交易的條款，若果碧桂園的最終價格高於初步價格，集團將會向美林收取款項；相反，若果碧桂園的最終價格低於初步價格，集團將要向美林支付款項。在有效期內，集團更須向美林提供2.5 億美元（19.5 億港元）抵押品，相當於CB 「抽水」金額約一半。

碰巧金融海嘯淹至，全球央行開水喉「放水」，內地熾熱樓市火上加油，惹來中央政府大力打壓，內房股股價表現死氣沈沈。碧桂園更是雪上加霜，因為集團與美林的對賭成績，每年賺蝕都須按市價入賬，2008 年度公允值虧損便達到12.41億元人民幣，令到業績的波動性大增【表】。

碧桂園與美林雖然於2011 年年初修訂了部分對賭合約條款，惟其股價始終未見大起色，所以集團決定提早斬纜終止合約。按照瑞銀估計的結算參考價6.7 元計算，碧桂園以2012 年3 月的現價「投降」，對賭一鋪便勁輸1.3 億美元（10.14億港元）。

中傳動對賭也出招

事件總是一不離二。2008 年4 月，中國高速傳動（658）也發行了近19.963億元三年期零息CB，又與摩根士丹利訂立股份掉期對賭合約。按照合約條款，若果中傳動股價高於13.6783 元，大摩須要向集團賠款；相反，集團則向大摩支付差價；同樣地，集團要把CB 一半款項作為抵押品。

受到金融海嘯衝擊，中傳動股價跟隨下跌， 對賭合約對業績的影響浮現，200 8 年度股份掉期公允價值損失為3.86億元人民幣，佔集團年度純利6.93 億元人民幣高達55.7%。

2009 年5 月，中傳動先行「拆彈」終止84% 掉期合約， 提前終止涉及約6876 萬股的股份掉期，平均價12.8495元。

2011 年5 月，中傳動終於決定斬纜，結束餘下約1261 萬股的股份掉期合約，以每股13.6783元購回且把它註銷。

滙源去年明賺實蝕

另一方面，CB 公平值變動的影響，隨時成為公司的「救命符」，令業績可能由蝕變賺。滙源果汁（1886）2011 年度純利3.1 億元人民幣， 同比大幅增長56.6 %，表面上相當「靚仔」，惟集團有一筆CB 公平值變動所產生的未變現收益3.41 億元人民幣。扣除該項收益之後，2011 年度實際虧損可能約為3100 萬元人民幣。

該筆CB 公平值變動所產生的未變現收益，主要來自CB 換股價與現價差距的收益，包括集團贖回已到期債券產生的換股權公平值變動7575 萬元人民幣，以及集團2016 年到期CB 的換股權公平值變動2.65 億元，兩者金額合共達到3.41 億元人民幣。

由此可見，CB 雖然可以為上市公司「抽水」，但衍生工具部分的影響卻不容忽視，隨時令到公司出現翻天覆地的轉變。

本欄逢周二刊出

歡迎交流上市公司的財技個案及招數， 請電郵至[email protected]。

高仁

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110 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 11:13:06

1886
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/ ... N201104271060_C.pdf
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/ ... TN20120328007_C.pdf

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111 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 11:16:34

658
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/ ... TN20080424765_C.pdf
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/ ... TN20090505003_C.pdf
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/ ... TN20110516191_C.pdf
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/ ... TN20110512006_C.pdf

more info
http://realblog.zkiz.com/greatsoup38/5348
http://realblog.zkiz.com/greatsoup38/5347

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112 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-14 11:19:39

658單野我都記得
嗰期好似正值accumulator嗰類野爆煲,啲人開始關心上市公司有關衍生工具嘅投資狀況

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113 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 11:23:16

112樓提及

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658單野我都記得
嗰期好似正值accumulator嗰類野爆煲,啲人開始關心上市公司有關衍生工具嘅投資狀況

是呀，但是他那類唔會死人的

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114 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-14 11:25:03

113樓提及

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112樓提及

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658單野我都記得
嗰期好似正值accumulator嗰類野爆煲,啲人開始關心上市公司有關衍生工具嘅投資狀況

是呀，但是他那類唔會死人的

係呀,不過嗰期真係好癲
只要嗰間公司有衍生工具喺手,唔理好醜,就一定跌

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115 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 11:26:21

其實我唔覺得是乜大事囉

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116 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-14 11:29:19

115樓提及

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其實我唔覺得是乜大事囉

但真係冇計,嗰時啲人開始醒覺,知道一啲聽完都唔知係咩嘅野嘅危險性
結果over react

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117 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 11:32:13

116樓提及

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115樓提及

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其實我唔覺得是乜大事囉

但真係冇計,嗰時啲人開始醒覺,知道一啲聽完都唔知係咩嘅野嘅危險性
結果over react

咁又可以賺錢啦

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118 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-14 11:35:00

不過嗰期金融海嘯,唔係個個咁夠膽

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119 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-14 11:35:28

同埋嗰期風電股都近水尾

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120 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 11:38:16

118樓提及

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不過嗰期金融海嘯,唔係個個咁夠膽

我當年是無錢，所以細膽，唔是我就買到40仙的623...發左達

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121 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 11:38:30

119樓提及

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同埋嗰期風電股都近水尾

咁都無辦法，不過當年的股票隻隻平

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122 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-14 11:39:34

其實有啲都可以執下,不過問題好多人艇晒,冇錢執

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123 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 11:53:37

122樓提及

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其實有啲都可以執下,不過問題好多人艇晒,冇錢執

我當時有幾萬蚊現金

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124 : drbull(3010)@2012-08-14 11:54:26

123樓提及

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122樓提及

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其實有啲都可以執下,不過問題好多人艇晒,冇錢執

我當時有幾萬蚊現金

那麼你應該發了

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125 : GS(14)@2012-08-14 12:02:47

124樓提及

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123樓提及

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122樓提及

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其實有啲都可以執下,不過問題好多人艇晒,冇錢執

我當時有幾萬蚊現金

那麼你應該發了

就是唔夠膽買D博的

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【健康online】How old.net測極都係老餅　越玩越不安？

1 : GS(14)@2015-05-07 23:55:03

實際年齡不能改變，但外貌卻可騙人。微軟「How Old Do I Look」網站，透過網站軟件偵測相中人歲數，吸引網民瘋狂上傳照片測試，不少女士更只為測出較實際年齡小、年年25歲的結果，但若屢試屢敗，小心引發焦慮情緒。精神科專科醫生周樂怡接受《蘋果》訪問時表示，測試結果若較實際年輕，確可令部份人提升自信，但若本身已有負面情緒，結果不合意反會增加不安與焦慮。以相片的外貌偵測年齡，結果若較實際年紀小，當然令人開心，但屢次「轉相」、多翻測試，結果都較實際年紀大，就難免沮喪又不甘心。曾有女士便用無數相片反覆測試，直至得出結果較實際歲數年輕才滿意「收手」，也有女士找來年齡相若者一同測試，要對方測出較自己「大齡」才甘心。精神科專科醫生周樂怡表示，一般人固然希望自己看起來較實際歲數年輕，只因年輕顯得較有活力及有生命力，特別年紀到達某一階段，對衰老更存有負面心態，因衰老也代表壓力指數，壓力越大老得越快。他指，心理健康正常者會對測試結果一笑置之，部份人若測出結果較心目中年輕，更會增加自信及自我形象。不過，若測試者本身已積存負面情緒，又特別「怕老」，得出結果較實際年齡「老咗」，便會產生負面影響，出現緊張及焦慮的情緒，並會否定測試，「唔接受測試出嚟結果，咪重覆咁試」，若本身較為自卑者，自我形象低落，即使測試結果顯示自己看起來較年輕，相信也難以提升自信及產生愉悅感，故毋須太在意測試結果。





來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/news/art/20150507/19139123

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