ZKIZ Archives


利人利己之投資 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2011/12/blog-post.html

我最近看到一篇文章﹐我摘錄它的重點﹐和各位分享﹕

************************************

  • 買股票就是買公司的股份
  • 買股份就是參股做生意
  • 做生意就是生產產品,或是提供某種服務
  • 供應產品或提供服務,都使人受惠,都有助於提供社會福祉
  • 廣大人民,都能以合理的價格買到產品或服務,提升了他們的生活素質,這樣有助於增加社會的福祉
  • 公司取得了可觀的利潤,將利潤以股息的方式派給股東,股東是賺到錢。一方面得到股息,一方面股票又增值,股東取得雙重的利益。

例如銀行業,銀行收集了公眾人士的存款,轉借給企業家開工廠,存款人取得定期存款利息,是贏家;銀行賺取存款和放貸之利息差額,是二贏家;企業家取得所需的資金,開設工廠,生產產品,從中賺取利潤,是三贏家,有此「三贏」,銀行業乃能持久經營。

例如屋業發展公司收集投資者的資金,買地建屋出售,買屋人有屋可住,是一贏家;發展商取得利潤,是二贏家,投資者分到紅利,是三贏家,故屋業能長存。

我們作為股票投資者,將資金交給公司、銀行、工業家,就是委託他們代我們去從事利人利己,大家都受惠,大家都是贏家的事業,作為上市公司的股東,我們其實都是在做事業,只是我們把經營權和管理權,交給董事部去執行,我們沒有直接參與經營和管理事業而已。

作為上市公司股東,我們的回酬,是來自公司的盈利,由於有盈利,股份才會增值,使股東的財富與日俱增,通過這種途徑賺錢,沒有『損人,故能長久投資。

投資能創造價值,故能長久,投機只是股份的轉讓,並非生產行為,不能創造價值,故不能持久。

創造價值,利人利己,人人都是贏家,故能長久經營,你才可以長期投資,長期投資才能賺錢。

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新年(二)﹕任公子釣魚 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/01/blog-post_18.html

莊子「外物篇」有這樣的一則寓言:

【原文】
任公子為大鉤巨緇,五十犗以為餌餌,蹲乎會稽,投竿東海,旦旦而釣,期年不得魚。已而 大魚食之,牽巨鉤,錎沒而下,鶩揚而奮鬐,白波如山,海水震盪,聲侔鬼神,憚赫千里。任公得若魚,離而臘之,自制河以東 ,蒼梧已北,莫不厭若魚者。已而後世輇才諷說之徒,皆驚而相告也。夫揭竿累(,趣灌瀆,守鯢鮒, 其於得大魚難矣。飾小說以干縣令﹐其於大達亦遠矣,是以未嘗聞任氏之風俗,其不可與輕於世亦遠矣。


意思大約是﹕

很 久以前﹐有個年青人姓任﹐所以街坊叫他作任公子。任公子最厲害的手藝就是釣魚。真的很厲害﹗他的釣餌是五十頭牛﹐用巨鉤穿住﹐然後用大繩索綁住。那時候﹐ 最深的海是東海﹐最高的山是會稽。所以﹐任公子就在會稽山頂﹐把釣竿投向東海。一日復一日﹐每天都這樣釣魚,整整一年一條魚也沒釣到。有一天﹐終於有魚上 釣了。你看﹗非常大的魚﹐它拉著釣鉤急速沉沒海底﹐又迅急地揚起脊背騰身而起,,掀起如山的白浪,海水劇烈震盪,吼聲猶如鬼神,震驚千里之外。任公子釣得 這樣 一條大魚,將它剖開製成魚乾,從浙江以東,到蒼梧以北,沒有誰不飽飽地吃上這條魚的。那些淺薄之人和喜好品評議論之士,都大為吃驚奔走相告。他們舉著釣竿 絲繩,奔跑在山溝小渠旁,守候小魚上釣,至於想得到大魚那就很難很難了。


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這個寓言的啟發是如果想要在股市賺錢,當務之急﹐就是先學投資﹑培養正確投資原則。
要到什麼程度呢﹖就看你想得到什麼成就﹗舉著釣竿絲繩,奔跑在山溝小渠旁,守候小魚上釣。還是大鉤巨緇,五十犗以為餌餌﹖
何為投資原則﹖就是可以成功的方法﹐你願意用盡生命去耕耘。當你運用這個原則﹐已經到了胸有成竹﹑上下縱橫皆如意的境界。你就懂得運用巨鉤和地點﹐懂得選大魚而釣。

要有耐心﹐故投資宜長期,長期才能累積財富,並無捷徑可循。

藝高才能膽大﹐學習是永遠的﹐行動是即刻的。買進了對的企業﹐不要怕股價波動。
(大魚食之,牽巨鉤,錎沒而下,鶩揚而奮鬐,白波如山,海水震盪,聲侔鬼神,憚赫千里)
肯拚搏的蛤蟆﹐就有吃天鵝的希望。肯拚搏的烏鴉﹐就有變鳳凰的希望。

身為凡夫俗子,只要堅持一些原則,腳踏實地進行投資,不投機,不取巧,就可以取得可觀的投資成績。投資30年,到退休時就可以做到「財務自主」,做個有尊嚴的樂齡人。


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2011年8-12月﹐在這段時間釣到大魚﹐如果能夠像任公子一樣﹐大魚食之,牽巨鉤,錎沒而下,鶩揚而奮鬐,白波如山,海水震盪,聲侔鬼神,憚赫千里。那麼﹐你今天有大魚吃鉤了。

****
祝福所有價值法的同門﹐一定要努力﹐這是對的正確投資原則。

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學投資﹐明白投資 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/02/blog-post_22.html

於順境中想要做什麼﹐都可以依照自己的心意﹐做起事來就容易得多。但是情況若相反﹐則困難重重。

一般人迷於順勢﹐為什麼會股票的價格會變動﹐自己都不知道﹐而且也不想探究[價值從何來]的道理﹐每天追著潮流﹐但是往往落在潮流之後﹐所謂差之毫釐﹑失之千里﹐要分毫不差的順勢而達到目標﹐更是難上加難。順勢者眾﹐成功者少。順勢者眾﹐是因為人性使然。

外在環境有阻礙時﹐只要自我有充份的毅力﹐即使再惡劣的環境都能突破。

學投資﹐明白投資﹐就是要打破環境的困難﹐追求[價值從何處來﹐價格往何處去]的道理。

不明白價值之前﹐看到牛/熊市﹐很容易陷於雜亂和妄想。

方向與立場一定要正確﹐這是開啟投資智慧門之匙。


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值得再三反覆細讀(一) 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/04/blog-post_24.html
再讀2011年巴郡致股東信, 個人認為以下這篇值得再三反覆細讀,
××××××××××××××××××××××
 The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer

Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be ladenwith risk.

(1)
Investments that are denominated in a given currency include money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments. Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as 「safe.」 In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets. Their betamay be zero, but their risk is huge.

Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as the holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal. This ugly result, moreover, will forever recur. Governments determine the ultimate value of money, and systemic forces will sometimes cause them to gravitate to policies that produce inflation. From time to time such policies spin out of control.

Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took overmanagement of Berkshire. It takes no less than $7 today to buy what $1 did at that time. Consequently, a tax-free institution would have needed4.3% interest annually from bond investments over that period to simplymaintain its purchasing power. Its managers would have been kidding themselves if they thought of any portion of that interest as 「income.」

For tax-paying investors like you and me, the picture has been far worse. During the same 47-yearperiod, continuous rolling of U.S. Treasury bills produced 5.7% annually. That sounds satisfactory. But if an individual investor paid personal income taxes at a rate averaging 25%, this 5.7%(一隻牛的計算:5.7%x75%=4.275% ,after tax)return would have yielded nothing in the way of real income. This investor's visible income tax would have stripped him of 1.4 points of the stated yield, and the invisible inflation tax would have devoured the remaining 4.3 points. It's noteworthy that the implicit inflation 「tax」 was more than triple the explicit income tax that our investor probably thought of as his main burden. 「In God We Trust」 may be imprinted on our currency, butthe hand that activates our government's printing press has been all too human.

High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments – and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. Current rates, however, donot come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label.

Under today's conditions, therefore, I do not like currency-based investments. Even so, Berkshire holds significant amounts of them, primarily of the short-term variety. At Berkshire the need for ample liquidity occupies center stage and will never be slighted, however inadequate rates may be. Accommodating this need, we primarily hold U.S.Treasury bills, the only investment that can be counted on for liquidity under the most chaotic of economic conditions. Our working level for liquidity is $20 billion; $10 billion is our absolute minimum.

Beyond the requirements that liquidity and regulators impose on us, we will purchase currency-related securities only if they offer the possibility of unusual gain – either because a particular credit is mispriced, as can occur in periodic junk-bond debacles, or because ratesrise to a level that offers the possibility of realizing substantial capital gains on high-grade bonds when rates fall. Though we've exploited both opportunities in the past – and may do so again – we are now 180 degrees removed from such prospects. Today, a wry comment that Wall Streeter Shelby Cullom Davis made long ago seems apt: 「Bonds promoted as offering risk-free returns are now priced to deliver return-free risk.」


(2)
The second major category of investments involves assets that will neverproduce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.

This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand stillfurther. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce –it will remain lifeless forever – but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.

The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, hastwo significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.

What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As 「bandwagon」 investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while.

Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combiningan initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the 「proof」 delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers – for a time– expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmedonce again: 「What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.」

Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At$1,750 per ounce – gold's price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.

Let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world's most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?($9.6 trillion美金,可以買多少家新鴻基?,長江?,九龍倉?,總而言之,所有的龍頭藍籌企業?)

Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today's annual production of gold command about $160billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.

A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. Youcan fondle the cube, but it will not respond.(以上所買入的龍頭藍籌企業,可以派發多少的股息?)

Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it's likely many will still rush to gold. I'm
confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.


(3)
Our first two categories enjoy maximum popularity at peaks of fear: Terror over economic collapse drives individuals to currency-based assets, most particularly U.S. obligations, and fear of currency collapse fosters movement to sterile assets such as gold. We heard 「cashis king」 in late 2008, just when cash should have been deployed rather than held. Similarly, we heard 「cash is trash」 in the early 1980s just when fixed-dollar investments were at their most attractive level in memory. On those occasions, investors who required a supportive crowd paid dearly for that comfort.

My own preference – and you knew this was coming – is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, orreal estate. Ideally, these assets should have the ability in inflationary times to deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring a minimum of new capital investment. Farms, real estate, and many businesses such as Coca-Cola, IBM and our own See's Candy meet that double-barreled test. Certain other companies – think of our regulated utilities, for example – fail it because inflation places heavy capital requirements on them. To earn more, their owners must invest more. Even so, these investments will remain superior to nonproductive or currency-based assets.

Whether the currency a century from now is based on gold, seashells, shark teeth, or a piece of paper (as today), people will be willing to exchange a couple of minutes of their daily labor for a Coca-Cola or some See's peanut brittle. In the future the U.S. population will move more goods, consume more food, and require more living space than it does now. People will forever exchange what they produce for what othersproduce.

Our country's businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial 「cows」will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of 「milk」 to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well). Berkshire's goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses. Our first choice will be to own them in their entirety – but we will also be owners by way of holding sizable amounts of marketable stocks. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we've examined. More important, it will be by farthe safest.
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值得再三反覆細讀(二) 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/04/blog-post_6061.html
1)
Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably
certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period.And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk.

  • 股價會波動,這是正常的。
  • 經歷無數次景氣循環,雖然盈利在不景氣時少許倒退,但是以10年或更久的經營歷史數據排列,盈利仍然能夠不斷增加,這樣的企業可以被稱為【對的企業】
  • 找到【對的企業】,也要能夠瞭解它的業務,知道如何經營(例如performance keypoint),才能買入,
  • 找到【對的企業】, 也要配合便宜/合理價,才能買入,
  • 如果【對的企業】,繼續以對的方式經營,才可以繼續持有

例子:渣打(2888)


股票數目股價的波動每股盈利景氣循環價值

(百萬)每股港元)(每股港元)
PE=10
20031,20782-1266.33SARS63
20041,210116-1499.78
98
20051,30999-17511.15
111
20061,349182-23112.66
127
20071,615211-30413.19
132
20081,63888-28714.54金融風暴145
20091,98475-21712.78
128
20102,192176-24414.82
148
20112,395141-21615.18歐債風暴152

以上,可以發覺:
  • 如果已經找到【對的企業】,如果不充分瞭解它的業務,就算是買入,恐怕很快的就會被股價波動震走。
  • 雖然股價會波動,但是價值是走在上升的軌道。市值+股息的增幅,如果無法超過通膨,也不能被稱為【對的企業】。所以,買入價非常重要。
  • 每一天的市價,不代表是便宜/合理價,尤其是【對的企業】,都是溢價出售。
  • 天上掉黃金,可遇不可求,一定要用大卡車來裝
(這是為了表達我的看法而舉的例子,可能某個事故,這家企業可以變樣)
(而且,PE=10,只是我的估計,不代表是對,也不代表所有企業都適合)

2)
Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably
certainto deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And aswe will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk.

~a tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% interest annually from bond investments over that period to simply maintain its purchasing power.

 巴老是說他的通膨數據是4.3%,如果【市值+股息】的增幅,無法超過通膨,應該是危險的投資。但是,以極便宜的價格買入,造成股息回報超過10%,就可以扭轉乾坤,化危為安。

3)
Under today's conditions, therefore, I do not like currency-based investments. Even so, Berkshire holds significant amounts of them, primarily of the short-term variety. At Berkshire the need for ample liquidity occupies center stage and will never be slighted, however inadequate rates may be. Accommodating this need, we primarily hold U.S.Treasury bills, the only investment that can be counted on for liquidity under the most chaotic of economic conditions. Our working level for liquidity is $20 billion; $10 billion is our absolute minimum.
  • 這小段,說明了流動性的重要。好的企業,有哪一個不是流動性穩定?出問題的企業,那一個不是因為流動性乾枯?
  • 反省自己,要成為成功的股票投資人,就必須學會理財,時時保持著充裕的生活費用,就算是超級金融風暴再來,也可以繼續持有投資部位,不必賣股買米,甚至股息再投資超值得的企業。 
  • 保持著充裕的生活費用,才不會過度在意股價的波動,才能專注於企業的價值增長。
4)
High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments – and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. Current rates, however, donot come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label.
  • 太美妙了,如果能擁有超越10%利息收入的【AAA級債券,匯豐的定期存款】。如果遇上,記得用大卡車去裝。
  • 【AAA級債券,匯豐的定期存款】只是代名詞,表示超級穩定和不違約。只要用心,市場內多得是。
 5)
  • investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. Ideally, these assets should have theability in inflationary times to deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring a minimum of new capital investment.
  • people will be willing to exchange a couple of minutes of their daily labor for【】
  • Berkshire's goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses.
  • I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to
    be the runaway winner
    among the three we've examined. More important, it will be by far the safest.

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觀察管理人的能力和誠信 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.hk/2012/08/blog-post_9.html
 渣打被紐約州釘牌,我不知道影響有多大。

巴菲特買美國運通的過程,是可以借鏡。

未來,我想渣打的net interest income業務(屋子貸款,消費貸款)應該照常,信用卡(年費收入)照樣用吧。
至於money transaction的業務會更謹慎 ,不要違法。

很多被美國稱為邪惡國家,這裡的民生市場,還是可以找到很多善良的商業活動,他們都需要銀行的服務。這件事,新的銀行應該不會想在這裡插旗,舊的但市場小的很可能因此離開,對渣打應該是好事。

渣打會被罰款多少?暫時無數字, 這個時候最是變化多端。但是,沒有變化,何來機會?

這是個好機會,可以觀察管理人的能力和誠信。
渣打將控狀公開,讓所有股東過目,雖然這不能證明它沒有違法,如果比較同行,顯然強烈分明,值得讚賞。
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第四版「聰明的投資者」的序言 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.hk/2012/12/blog-post.html
Warren E. Buffet:
To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework. This book ( The Intelligent Investor) precisely and clearly prescribes the proper framework. You must supply the emotional discipline.

If you follow the behavioral and business principles that Graham advocates--and if you pay special attention to the invaluable advice in Chapters 8 and 20--you will not get a poor result from your investments.

Whether you achieve outstanding results will depend on the effort and intellect you apply to your investments, as well as on the amplitudes of stock -market folly that prevail during your investing career.


**************
以上幾句是摘自巴菲特在Financial Analysts Journal, Nov/Dec 1976, 發表的文章,也是第四版「聰明的投資者」的序言。我個人體會是,

如果我們想要這世人最後是投資成功,秘訣是:
  • 對的策略
這書(The Intelligent Investor)所說的就是對的策略,尤其是第8和20篇。
 
我個人認為「 keep emotions from corroding that framework」
無非就是「信」。如果你不相信這個策略,稍微風吹草動,你就會起心動念,朝令夕改。

想要達到標青的成績,除了努力和聰明,還要看時勢。
三者之間,應先專注在努力,其餘的就相信一切都是好因緣。


時勢即系你這一生能有幾場金融風暴?
 When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.
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強國模式 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.hk/2012/12/blog-post_26.html
公元前362年,商鞅和秦國國君論富國強兵之策,對強國模式提出一下見解,

 強國模式:
  1. 甲兵財貨之強
  2. 明君吏治之強
  3. 山河廣袤之強
 但是以上模式,只強一時,不強長遠。

原因:
  1. 遇明君則強
  2. 遇常君則弱
  3. 遇昏君則亡
根本原因在於:名為法治,實為人治 。

衰弱並且淪亡的國家,其模式可分為:
  1. 守富饒土地而貧窮
  2. 擁強悍之民而兵弱
  3. 據山川形勝而淪喪
對於如此的管理人,惟有常君甚至昏君可以形容,是因為他們不懂得善用先天的優勢,綜合混一為強大國力。

強大國力:
  1. 人口眾多
  2. 農工興旺
  3. 府庫充盈
  4. 甲兵強盛
  5. 民勇公戰


*************************
商鞅在兩千年前的見解,我個人認為,不只是在現代適用,對分析企業的強弱也是一針見血。

甲兵財貨之強:
可以形容企業的員工訓練有素、工廠設備以及生產線上的機械是最新的、資產負債健康、盈利收入強勁。

明君吏治之強:
管理人智勇雙全,各階段的經理能幹。

 山河廣袤之強:
佔據市場的大部分、各種資源豐富。

但是以上種種優勢,不能保證企業長久生存。

根本原因在於人治 。
成功的機率全系在管理人,遇到愚蠢/自私的管理人,企業極可能衰弱並且淪亡。

何謂企業的法治?

制度必需完善無私,依制度不依人。
懲罰先從上層開始,獎賞則從底層開始。
董事會、管理人、股東,三權必需平衡。
對於人事要做到賢而知、知而用、用而任。
務求企業實力增長,激勵全體士氣。
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2012年﹐致牛欄股東信 一隻牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.hk/2013/01/2012.html
牛太,牛女:

牛欄投資組合在2012年的表現如下,

股票組合的表現:
          帳面值     恆生指數   STI指數
2010   +8.9%         +5.3%       +10.1%
2011    -11.0%       -20.0%        -17.0%
2012   +25.1%      +22.9%      +15.1%


 收息組合的表現:
          帳面值     恆生指數   STI指數
2011      -0.4%       -20.0%        -17.0%
2012   +46.7%      +22.9%       +15.1%

收息組合主要是REIT、商業信託。

股票+收息組合的表現:
            帳面值     恆生指數   STI指數
2011      -1.0%       -20.0%        -17.0%
2012   +32.7%      +22.9%       +15.1%


回顧2011年的股東信,
總結起來﹐自從今年(2011年)八月開始﹐我的策略是﹕
  1. 瞭解自己的能力
  2. 瞭解能力以內的企業的基本數據
  3. 挑選具備持續競爭優勢的企業
  4. 以好價錢買入
  5. 組合分成定息和股票

所以2012年,我在投資資產的分配
            股票      收息
2011      43%       57%       
2012      23%      77%     

當然,以上的分配不是在一天內完成的,而是摸索了6-7個月,逐漸形成的。

我是不是已經瞭解自己?
不,絕對不瞭解自己能力的過程是永遠無止境

(1)
身是菩提樹,心為明鏡台。時時勤拂拭,勿使惹塵埃。

(2)
菩提本無樹,明鏡亦非台,本來無一物,何處惹塵埃。

就如以的兩首禪詩, 世人常讚歎第二首,說是大智慧,比第一首更高境界。就因為如此,我們是否就對第一首不肖一顧呢?有沒有想過,可能第一首更適合自己?

我個人覺得,不要太在意方法是否出名最為重要的是適合自己的能力。
一隻牛來說,就選牛的方法吧如果叫牛用龍的招數,恐怕......。如果只能漸悟,就不要強求頓悟。

Warren E. Buffett :
   To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insight, or inside information. What needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.
   If you follow the behavioral and business principles that Graham advocates, you will not get a poor result from your investments. Whether you achieve outstanding results will depend on the effort and intellect you apply to your investment, as well as on the amplitudes of stock-market folly that prevail during your investing career.

以上幾句是摘自巴菲特在Financial Analysts Journal, Nov/Dec 1976, 發表的文章,也是第四版「聰明的投資者」的序言。我個人體會是,

如果我們想要這世人最後是投資成功,秘訣是:
  • 對的策略
這書(The Intelligent Investor)所說的就是對的策略,尤其是第8和20篇。

我個人認為「 keep emotions from corroding that framework」
無非就是「信」。如果你不相信這個策略,稍微風吹草動,你就會起心動念,朝令夕改。

想要達到標青的成績,除了努力和聰明,還要看時勢。
三者之間,應先專注在努力,其餘的就相信一切都是好因緣。


時勢即系你這一生能有幾場金融風暴?
 When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.

我個人認為,多閱讀、多嘗試(實驗),在過程中瞭解自己,搜尋適合自己的方法。然後深入研究,再實驗。你可能發現,之前適合自己的方法,很可能經不起考驗;你也可能發現,Graham所述的方法,仍然經得起檢驗;但是,你也可能發現,Graham所述的方法,再加上巴菲特和費雪(Philip Fisher)所述,的確是可以再改善。從種種過程中,最大的收穫就是建立能力(competence )。

2012年,股票組合出現極大的變動,首先是套現恆隆地產,第二是減少股票的部位,增加收息的部位。原因在於當時的收息市場有利潤,而且確定。雖然當時,我覺得股票和收息的利潤可能一樣,但是收息卻有先天的優勢,例如透明和公開的派息政策,以及收息的來源主要是房地產收租,所以可預測和能確定。市價變動是市場的事,我只要計算收息的價值,等待價值和市價的出現足夠的差別。

套現恆隆地產的想法,是因為覺得建設銀行和工商銀行的市價很便宜,而恆隆地產的市價卻合理。 把合理的,換成很便宜,只要是龍頭換龍頭,我覺得還是可以的。(說穿了,就是錢不夠,才出此策)。
 

以上列表(16-7-12),再參考過去幾年的業績, 我個人認為是難得的便宜。龍頭股的特徵之一是對大勢敏感,通常可以在一年之間,有所反應,例如下圖所示:
 圖表用途工商銀行 (1398.HK)

 在6倍PE以下買入,仍然可能「暫時性虧損」,因為我們不可能知道市場瘋狂到何等程度。只要組合經營完善,貢獻合理的股息收入,我們是不必要理會賬面值的「暫時性虧損」。勝利的契機在於:
  • 對 「暫時性虧損」的容忍程度。成本便宜,容忍程度越高。龍頭企業, 容忍程度越高。越瞭解企業的基本數據,容忍程度越高。 
  • 耐心等待。龍頭企業, 等待的時間就有可能縮短。

6倍PE的成本,我們極有可能面對「暫時性虧損」,更何況是10倍PE的成本?


2012年的投資策略仍然適合於2003年

 廣儲糧、高築牆、緩稱王
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被幾千隻牛蜱吸血狗女奇蹟康復

1 : GS(14)@2016-07-14 08:09:42

希臘雅典街頭一隻流浪狗,去年被人發現時滿身牛蜱,數量之多令人毛管戙。當時狗狗的身體虛弱得幾乎死去,情況非常危急。狗女「布洛瑟姆」(Blossom)遭人遺棄街頭後,身上慘遭數以千計牛蜱依附,大吸特吸牠的血,令「布洛瑟姆」極度瘦弱,幸好牠去年7月被義工救起,並交由獸醫治療。獸醫發現「布洛瑟姆」一雙耳朵因依附了太多牛蜱而下垂,牠的尾巴亦被鐵線纏着,部份組織壞死,因此不得不切除。但值得慶幸的是,獸醫為牠輸血和把牛蜱逐粒移除後,「布洛瑟姆」很快便奇蹟康復,並找到一個愛錫牠的主人,如今更不時與其他狗狗一起玩。英國《每日郵報》





來源: http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20160714/19694486
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