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13家央企利比亞大撤退 最大限度保全資產

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中國企業已陸續從利比亞撤退。

3月1日，本報記者從國資委獲悉，利比亞騷亂爆發後，國資委組織駐利比亞央企成立應急指導小組和前方指揮部，並啟動撤離方案。

其中，中國建築、中交集團、中國水電和葛洲壩集團四家央企負責利比亞的4個分區指揮中心，除組織本企業人員撤離外，還統一協調安排了其它中資企業、華僑華人等撤離工作。

除了人員撤離，國資委和其他有關部門還對資產保全工作做了部署。據本報記者瞭解，目前，中資企業在利比亞的項目幾乎全部停工。

國資委規劃發展局規劃一處處長賈立克告訴本報記者，共有13家央企在利比亞有相關業務，各家企業採取了設備關鍵零部件深埋、資產託管、技術資料保存等措施。

賈立克表示，中國企業在利比亞的損失金額尚未統計完全，統計工作由商務部牽頭。

來自中國商務部2月24日提供的消息，截至2月23日，共有27個中國在利比亞企業工地、營地遭到襲擊搶劫，給在利企業造成大量直接經濟損失，包括被搶、砸和燒燬的車輛、施工機具、材料、辦公設備及現金等。

分4區大撤退

利比亞動亂發生後，國資委在第一時間成立了由國資委副主任黃丹華任組長的應急小組，指導、協調央企在利人員撤離工作，並制定了分期分批撤離在利人員、留守人員安全保障和財產保全三大方案。

中國航空集團公司辦公室主任季洪全表示，這是一場「不講價錢，以生命為最高利益」的大撤退。

在此次撤離工作中，國務院按區域確定了4個分區指揮中心的前方總指揮，協助使館做好撤離工作。

例如，葛洲壩集團負責利比亞西區撤離工作，這一區域包括中冶一局、長江岩土、華為、中建材、中海油等11家中資公司，共5000餘人。

目前，葛洲壩集團在利比亞的1060名人員已經全部安全撤離。

中國鐵建在組織撤離其在利比亞項目職工的同時，還全面負責在利比亞首都的黎波里地區的華人華僑的撤離總協調。

來自外交部網站的消息，截至3月1日14時，我國已從利比亞撤出迄今我瞭解掌握的絕大部分在利中國公民，累計約32000人。其中約9000人已回國，約21000人暫時安置在第三國，約2100人正在赴第三國途中。

外交部方面還公佈，我國在利比亞東部和中西部人員已基本撤離完畢，在南部還有約3000人也將搭乘我國軍機及外航包機於日內撤離，暫時安置在第三國人員很快將搭乘中國政府包機回國。

保全資產

據本報記者瞭解，近年來，中國企業尤其是央企在利比亞承攬了不少鐵路、住宅、基礎設施、水利水電等項目，隨著利比亞戰亂爆發，這些項目幾乎全部被迫停工。

中國水利水電建設集團公司是較早進入利比亞市場的央企。在利比亞動亂之前，該公司在利比亞有在建項目6個，合同總額17.88億美元。葛洲壩在利比亞的項目為7300套房建項目，合同金額8.29億美元。

中國鐵建的合同金額可能是央企中最大的。中國鐵建總公司董事會秘書餘興喜透露，中國鐵建在利比亞的合同總額為42.37億美元，其中，已完成6.86億美元，35.51億美元未完成。

本報記者獲悉，目前，國資委組織央企採取了一系列財產保全措施。包括：與當地有關方面簽訂資產保管協議，做好固定資產的登記、備案工作；在營地和工地周圍深挖壕溝，用砌牆、推土等辦法封堵大門，想盡辦法保護好貴重物品，最大限度地保全國有資產。

葛洲壩集團有關負責人對本報記者表示，葛洲壩已與業主協商移交財產，關閉一部分合同，並與中行等金融機構提出資產保全問題，為整個工程保險的索賠做準備。

中建材在利比亞有一家水泥廠，動亂爆發後，中建材深埋了一批重點設備。此外，大部分央企都保存相關財務、經營、技術等有關資料，有的還與當地管理委員會、軍方、業主等有關各方簽訂了物資移交協議。

後續工作

撤退尚未全部結束。

中國水利水電建設集團海外事業部副總經理孫越對本報記者表示，接下來，公司要做個四個確保，確保從營地到機場行進途中的安全；確保登機的安全；確保滯留第三國人員的轉運安全；確保回國後的疏散工作。

葛洲壩集團則將撤離工作重心逐漸轉移到回國人員的接應、疏散、安置等工作上。

季洪全表示，中航集團下階段將繼續增加包機數量，併合理安排運力。

實際上，此次撤退工作的成本極高。例如，對三大航這樣的大型公司而言，抽調一架包機意味著一連串國內航班的取消，多達上百架航班需要重新調整，在經濟利益方面的損失是不言而喻的。

在資產損失上，各家央企將做出相應核算，為後續索賠、合同變更或繼續等做準備。

餘興喜表示，中國鐵建（601186.SH）會在3月1日晚發佈公告，對公司在利比亞項目的損失情況做出解釋。


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李祿談投資 (2010哥倫比亞大學演講摘要)

從六四民運學生領袖到成功投資家，李祿的經歷都幾傳奇性。 這令我想起剛看完的電影“中國合伙人“， 中國改革開放這時代巨輪改寫了很多人的命運， 而這都是他們事前無法預料及想象得到。
看過李祿在哥倫比亞大學演講後，感覺他的投資功力果然深厚， 難怪芒格和巴菲特比願意給錢他投資。以下是那次演講摘要,有點長,但絕對值得一看 (筆者嘗試把一部份重點做了underline,希望有所幫助).


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Bruce Greenwald: Warren Buffett says that when he retires, there are three people he would like to manage his money. First is Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group, who you will hear from later in the course. Next is Greg Alexander of the Sequoia Fund. Third is Li Lu. He happens to manage all of Charlie Munger’s money. I have a small investment with him and in four years it is up 400%.

[Applause]

Li Lu: Columbia is where my whole life in America started. I could barely speak the language. In Columbia it was where I had a new life. It was really in the Value Investing class where I got my career start. I was really worried about my student loan debt at the time and a friend told me about this class and said I need to see a lecture from Warren Buffett.

What I heard that night changed my life. He said three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

Those were three powerful concepts. I had never viewed the stock market like that. I viewed it negatively as a place made up of manipulators who were lining their own pockets. I embarked on an intensive two year study learning everything about Buffett.

Two years after that I bought my first stock. After I graduated I worked at an investment bank for a year and realized it was a mistake. I tried to start a fund but I didn’t have a track record. The first year I managed money I lost 19%.

Being a value investor means you look at the downside before looking at the upside. Before becoming an investor you need to look at how you can fail at this game. There are all sorts of ways you can fail. You need to examine who you are and see if you could be good at it. If you could ever find something you can do well that you really like — that will be your best investment. You will do better than competitors. If you can do it with intrinsic passion, that really over time will add enormous value to you.

Back to the game of investing. This concept of margin of safety is an essential concept to be a good investor. The future is unpredictable, you will always be dealt surprises, some positive most negative. You need to build in a level of safety so that whatever happens, you will not get crushed. If you can really successfully know what you are getting into, you can pretty much navigate.

Most people are troubled by what they don’t know. The world is divided by those who know and those who don’t know. If you really know — you will not pull triggers like Wall St. traders. If you are truly intellectually honest, you would not do anything.

This class teaches you to know what you are getting into, especially accepting what things you don’t know. The game of investment is really continuous learning. Everything affects an investment, it constantly changes. You are not investing in the past but the accumulative cash flow of the future. You have to want to find a certain set up where you can know something that most people don’t know. There are plenty of things I don’t know but they don’t factor into the purchase because I am using a huge margin of safety.

Buying a dollar at 50 cents. So if things turn against you, you will be okay. That is not easy. This business is brutally competitive. It is so impossible to know everything and know exactly what is going to happen to a business from now till the end that you really have to accept that what you don’t know.

Finding an edge really only comes from a right frame of mind and years of continuous study. But when you find those insights along the road of study, you need to have the guts and courage to back up the truck and ignore the opinions of everyone else. To be a better investor, you have to stand on your own. You just can’t copy other people’s insights. Sooner or later, the position turns against you. If you don’t have any insights into the business, when it goes from $100 to $50 you aren’t going to know if it will back to $100 or $200.

So this is really difficult, but on the other hand, the rewards are huge. Warren says that if you only come up with 10 good investments in your 40 year career, you will be extraordinarily rich. That’s really what it is. This shows how different value investing is than any other subject.

So how do you really understand and gain that great insight? Pick one business. Any business. And truly understand it. I tell my interns to work through this exercise – imagine a distant relative passes away and you find out that you have inherited 100% of a business they owned. What are you going to do about it? That is the mentality to take when looking at any business. I strongly encourage you to start and understand 1 business, inside out. That is better than any training possible. It does not have to be a great business, it could be any business.

You need to be able to get a feel for how you would do as a 100% owner. If you can do that, you will have a tremendous leg up against the competition. Most people don’t take that first concept correctly and it is quite sad. People view it as a piece of paper and just trade because it is easy to trade. But if it was a business you inherited, you would not be trading. You would really seek out knowledge on how it should be run, how it works. If you start with that, you will eventually know how much that business is worth.

When I started in the business in 1997, it was in the middle of the Asian Financial Crisis. A few years later there was the Internet bubble. A couple years ago was the Great Crash of 2007 – 2008. They are billed as once in a century disasters but happen every few years. Every time it goes against you, your net worth or value of your investments might go down 50%. This is really where that insight and temperament comes in.

In a sense, you have to have a certain confidence in your own judgement and not be swayed by other people’s views.It is not easy. But that is life. It is just a given. It happens to everyone. Berkshire had at least 3 times when the stock went down 50%. It happened to Carnegie. It happened to Rockefeller. It happens to everyone. If you really made a mistake, it would not stop at 50% but go to 0.

This happens to even mighty companies. Look at the top 50 companies in America every 10 years. By the time 20-40 years go by, 2/3rds of them will be gone. By the time it goes to 100 years, there might be only a couple left. It’s just the way it is. Look at what happened to the once mighty General Motors. So thats why I’m saying is, investing is a continuous learning process because your investments are constantly changing

So for those of you that have curiosity and the temperament, this game couldn’t be better. Capitalism rewards people who are talented at capital allocator. So if you have the aptitude and temperament, it is the great game. If you don’t have that then I urge you not to go and become a nuisance. That is really what Wall Street did, they don’t really create anything they just move money around.

Letting the financial industry get too big is bad for the economy, it is just as bad as getting addicted to casinos, drugs, and alcohol. None of them are really useful, they just transfer wealth. That is what I think happened on Wall Street over the last several decades. So avoid being harmful.

With that I am open to questions.

Q: Mohnish Pabrai recently spoke about his reluctance about investing in China due to the multiple accounting books / the possibility of fraud. How do you deal with this given your own investments in China?

Li Lu: Well, you know I think he is right. Every thing has an exception though. Just because a next door neighbor is a fraud doesn’t mean you are. That is one question to ask— whether you can trust the accounting and people running the business. That can have a huge impact on the business. I suggest you spend a lot of time looking at these factors, especially if you are investing for the long haul.

Q: Why did you decide to go into venture capital? How is that different than your other investing?

Li Lu: I always had this bent that I want to build a real business. I started a venture and it was really a lot of fun. Overall, it is a tougher game than simply investing in securities because you have to evolve to the day to day changes in operations and it is just not as easy to build great businesses. Every generation has a handful of great businesses that come from no where and come to dominate their fields.

It is much more rewarding as an investor to pick those. Also, you are more likely to find managers much more capable than yourself. Overall, I learned a lot. I learned a lot in how businesses succeed and how businesses fail. It really was a lot of fun. I probably carried it too far — I eventually ran one of the businesses and it was of course a mistake.

Q: I read that when you look at an industry, you look at the most miserable failures of that industry to see whether you will invest in it. Can you talk a bit about that?

Li Lu: It goes back to understanding the business. Once you have that understanding you can extend it to understanding an industry. A certain industry might have characteristics that make it different than others. In certain industries you might have better prospects than others. Find the best of the players in the industry and the worst players.

And see how they perform over time. And if the worst players perform reasonably well relative to the great players — that tells you something about the characteristics about the industry. That is not always the case but it is often the case. Certain industries are better than others.

So if you can understand a business inside out you can then eventually extend that to understanding an industry. If you can get that insight, it is enormously beneficial. If you can then concentrate that on a business with superior economics in an industry with superior economics with good management and you get them at the right price — the chances are that you can stay for a very long time.

Q: Did you have any specific example?

Li Lu: I have studied many over the years. As I have said, don’t copy other people’s insights because it doesn’t work. Automobiles are amazing. If you look at the early days it started with several players and concentrated with just a few players that became enormously profitable. Then they became miserable. You then see how the life cycle turns with new automakers in China and India. Everything has a reason.

If you want a good idea — look at General Motors from the early days, look every 5 years and see how the performance metrics change. The Graham and Dodd Center should collect all the data and perform some kind of commentary on it.

Bruce Greenwald:Do you want me to give you the answer to that? In the 1960s, their return on capital was 46%. In the 1970s their return on capital was 28%. In the 1980s it was 9% in the 1990s it was 6%. You want to guess how negative it is now?

Li Lu: So that is really fascinating. If you have that data, the amount of insight that would yield would be astonishing. So instead of just accepting the conventional wisdom that the auto business is bad — that is just not true. Or if you say well those guys just unbelievable money machines — that is not true either. So if you can really examine those statistics and understand it that will give you an advantage for analyzing new situations like in China and India. That is really what turns me on. Understanding this gives you a tremendous leg up.

Q: I wanted to ask you about BYD. I heard that you thought it was important for them to introduce a model to the US and wanted to know why you thought that.

Li Lu: That might be a better question to ask the BYD chairman than myself. Well, If you are just talking about electric vehicles, you know the key — the heart and soul of the electric vehicle age the heart is the battery. There is the battery, electric motor, and the electric control control panel. The electric motor has been there for 100 years, control system is software that can be improved over time.

The battery is really where you get the biggest appreciation and is what determines the value of the electric vehicle. 100 years before the Model-T was introduced, the competition between electric vehicles and gasoline was not nearly as optimistic. Up and till then, 1/3rd of cars being produced were electric. It wasn’t until Rockefeller got oil extracted easily enough that it worked. Henry Ford was able to make the internal combustion work even though it wasted 85% of the energy. He was able to build the engine and produce automobiles that were cheap enough for people to buy and it took off. That is where you find the real winners.

Now, years later, we know that the way that oil is burned contributes to global warming. If it continues, the planet might still be here but all the human beings might not. Human beings have only been on the planet for a tiny bit of the earth’s history. So there are all sorts of good reasons for electric cars. Battery development has advanced so much that it is now comparable to the price and performance of traditional cars. So now with the help of companies like BYD, the balance is about to tilt towards where performance and price are getting to the level that makes them a desirable alternative. It will be desirable everywhere. Eventually, if you have a car that does all that, it will be sold everywhere.

Q: What about BYD versus others in the industry?

Li Lu: The market will determine that.

Q: Yeah – but why BYD versus others?

Li Lu: Well because we also studied all those other guys. We will see when the winner emerges whether we are right or wrong.

Q: Right – but what did you look at to reach that view?

Li Lu: There are a lot of people who have worked over 100 years making great cars. The technology for building a traditional car has been refined enough to where it can be learned in a short period. The place we are still seeing a curve of continuous rapid improvement is with the batteries for cars.

Whoever is leading the charge will have a major advantage. There is really only one company that is a leader in battery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing. There is only one company. To put this together you need a Ford to put that together. So far those two elements need to be put together. It is not an easy process.

Q: So you went to BYD in 2005 and then you brought Berkshire as well. I saw that you sold a small amount of your BYD position at the end of last year. Was it just rebalancing? Can I just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

Li Lu: Actually I started my BYD position in 2002. I sold a small amount of shares because an investor of mine had an emergency redemption.

Q: We read your profile online. I had a question –do you have any problems when trying to invest in China?

Li Lu: Yeah I do have some difficulty. I did not really see a factory plant at BYD until the end of 2008. I really did not have a better understanding till then. That really causes you to question what it is before you make an investment. With investing, you have to work with imperfect information because you are buying a piece of the future. I did not really get a chance to get more information because the problem in Asia till much later but it did not stop me from making my investment decision.

So there is a point, where if you have enough margin of safety– that is why I kept coming back to the elementary concept of margin of safety– you can allow much more uncertainty and unknowns. So the answer of the question is does that stop you from making the investment? No.

Q: So I did some research on lithium ion batteries, and I saw that BYD has a manufacturing advantage with consumer batteries. But I saw that automobile batteries are much more complex. I did not think that the idea of a good consumer battery manufacturer + an automobile maker made much sense. So when Buffett looked at the stock maybe it was a better deal but today it is this dream of vehicles that is really priced in. It does not feel like a good value investor stock. So why would you own it today?

Li Lu: Well that is interesting. One of the most fascinating things about being an investor is that surprises are part of the game. When you get into situations like BYD, you see lots of good surprises. Chuanfu and his team have this fabulous culture, everything people thought they knew turned out to be a few years late. He got into battery manufacturing in that particular way because he really had no other option. He had no money, he only had $300,000 in venture capital funding before IPO and that was it.

He raised money in an IPO and Buffett gave him $200M, now they have 160,000 employees. $6-7B in revenues, $500M in net profit. It is amazing. So he has this ability to adapt in a competitive environment. He has demonstrated that ability again again and again. The way he does automation is far cheaper than anyone else and more reliable.

He continues to surprise me with his ingenuity, to figure out ways to do something better than everyone else. What he is currently doing is very different than what everyone else has done. At the end of the day, you might look at what he has done.

So how do you look at it as an investor with imperfect information? Well I suggest you look at what he has accomplished. 8 years ago I had no idea they would go into the automobile or laptop or cellphone battery business. So that demonstrates how he is. This investment is not easy to understand because it is changing so fast, at such a large scale. An almost unheard of speed. Their manufacturing capabilities will double soon.

This year they will hire 10,000 college graduates, 8 or 9 thousand engineers. The scale is almost unparalleled. So this is why the study of history, of all the great corporations will give you a good insight in seeing what will happen with BYD. I suggested that we start with GM and analyze its performance every 5 years for 100 years to understand at least one aspect of BYD’s business.

Q: One investor came in and said talking to management is a waste of time. They will say what you want them to say. Obviously it sounds like you don’t agree with that. What do you think? Will you pay a premium for a business with a moat?

Li Lu: There is no general rule. The key in investing is to know what you know and know what you don’t know. You can know about management teams without meeting with them. Every situation is slightly different. So I come back to the point that if you know enough on other things that there is enough margin of safety. Even if you meet with management, you may not learn something. Obviously, actions speak louder.

You want to see what they have done. Everything being equal, the more you know about management, the more honest and upfront they are, the more motive they have, the better the situation is and the deeper the discount. You have to analyze it all. The key to analyzing it is you have to ask: do I really know what I think I know, do I really know what I don’t know? If you can’t answer that question, chances are you are gambling.

Q: What kind of preparation do you do before meeting a management team?

Li Lu: I don’t really have a set method. Because I usually am just curious about the business and don’t know a lot. So you are prepared and not prepared. If you are really curious, you want to learn more and study it more. When working at a hedge fund or mutual fund, you are expected to learn a business in one week. You can’t truly understand everything about a business in one week.

It took me 10 years and I am still learning new things about BYD. It is a continuous learning process. You could spend a lifetime studying a business or industry, but in a few seconds I can tell you whether or not I like it. You want to build knowledge by continually learning. There is not set preparation.

Q: Recently, Jim Chanos gave us his thesis on the China Syndrome with there possibly being a bubble.

Li Lu: Well, it is too big of a question for me. I don’t know

Q: 20 years ago you said you challenged conventional wisdom in China. Out of curiosity, in terms of value investing what do you challenge in the conventional wisdom?

Li Lu: Well, the fundamental philosophy of value investing is very sound. Its basically the three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

That is really an intelligent approach. So therefore any intelligent investing is really value investing. There is a certain level of intellectual honesty. If you have all that insight going into analyzing businesses I don’t have any arguments with it.

Q: What is your point of view on long / short positions in value investing?

Li Lu: The most profitable kind of investing is long term investing. You want to allow the time that it might take because you don’t know when the market will catch on. If you can find a business with good management with good industry fundamentals blowing it forward, you have a good opportunity and you can save money on taxes.

A short cannot be a fundamentally long term position. In the long game, the upside is unlimited. Your downside is 100%. In shorting it is opposite. Shorting is also essentially borrowing, so you need money and time on your side. If time is not on your side, you can be right but lose all your money.

The best kind of short usually has some kind of fraud. In those situations, management is determined to keep the fraud. Look at Bernie Madoff, 20 years time. You cannot afford to borrow money for 20 years. So shorting is a short term game. When those positions go against you, there is huge leverage that can utterly crush you.

In theory, long / short is okay, but if you are trading all the time you need to be in tune with all the things moving the market. None of them might be fundamental to the actual business. So you spend all your time chasing noise than studying a long term situation. If you cannot concentrate on things in the long term, and spend all your time thinking about the short term, you will not be able to develop the kinds of insights necessary to identify great investments.

From time to time, you will lose some money on paper. But it is just part of the game. This is why I closed long / short. You know I went through three bubbles. The Asian Financial Crisis, the Internet Bubble, and this most recent financial crisis. The biggest mistake I made is not being able to pick up undervalued companies where I had a unique insight but was tied up with this whole long / short thing. The money I left on the table is still adding up. I am still paying for those mistakes.

Q: In a bull market environment, how do you re-evaluate your thesis?

Li Lu: I don’t ever want to profit from a bubble. Soros does that, that is just not my game. I don’t profess any ability to understand how long a crowd will buy into a bubble. I invest in things that appear to be compelling values that continues. So that is why this game is a continuous learning process – because everything affecting the investment is constantly changing. Including the price. Including the prospects and elements of business success. You really do want to never stop learning. This game looks to be easy but it is not easy.

Q: Given your focus on international investments, how do you think about diversifying your investments regionally?

Li Lu: First of all, I did not really specialize in international investments. I started off doing most of my investments in the US and Canada. In recent years, I just find better bargains outside of it. One of the great things about being an investor is you can look anywhere and find great pockets of opportunities. You cannot do that as a venture capitalist as I experienced myself. So you can look anywhere for opportunities.

I do not take a regional approach to diversification. I have views towards certain countries and currencies, but it is not the driving force for a potential investment. If you have your fundamental things right, if you happen to have macro economic factors behind you, you can run a great wave.

Q: How is your investment style different today than when you started the fund?

Li Lu: A lot of things have changed. One bonus about this profession is you get better over time. Most professions, as you get older, you get out of the game. Take the example of competitive sports. If you are a figure skater or gymnast, after your teenage years you are out of the game. With investing, if you are doing it the right way, you get better over time. Your knowledge accumulates exponentially. When I look back at everything I have done, I would have done it all slightly differently, but that is because I am better at it today.

So if you approach it in a fundamentally sound way, as you mature, you become better and better. That process and progression is like compounding money. In fact, you can compound knowledge faster than money. If you truly love this game, I would suggest that you don’t take short cuts. It might take longer but it is more rewarding.

Q: What is the difference between being a top political criminal in China versus a hedge fund manager today (referring to the ire directed at Wall Street)?

Li Lu: I don’t consider myself a criminal. I don’t think China considers me a criminal. What I think we are doing today with our investment in BYD in China is really helping China march towards a modern era of prosperity. BYD is providing a solution to both China and the US, to migrate from the past to a way that gets us out of the unsustainable carbon age that we live in. Global warming is a vital concern to every human being, so China is providing a great contribution to everybody with BYD.

America has had a great history of invention and here is a great company in China that is about to make a major contribution to human civilization with cheap electric vehicles and solar power.
Ultimately we will have to get our energy from the sun. Most of the energy, even fossil fuels (plants that die and then go into the ground), all originally come from the sun. So if you can figure out a way to take energy from the sun and power vehicles, while using batteries to store it, inexpensively — will really make renewable energy power everything.

The combination of those things holds the key to the future of industrial civilization that we are about to embark on. We didn’t set out with BYD with this in mind, it just happened that way. With great companies, it only looks logical in retrospect. Think about how Bill Gates started Microsoft. I don’t think he knew up front that he would take the entire market — at that time it did not exist. It is the same way with our investment in BYD. Ultimately, I think finding an inexpensive way to store energy that we harness from the sun will be a huge contribution for both China and the US, but more broadly our entire civilization.

 
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西部打造南向大通道 泛歐泛亞大物流漸成

在全國各地紛紛推出中歐班列向西拓展的同時，一條西部地區面向東盟和海洋的南向大通道迅速升溫。

5月22日上午，“川-桂-港（馬）”南向通道（宜賓-欽州）集裝箱鐵路首趟班列從四川宜賓發出，到達欽州港之後，再轉運中國香港和馬來西亞。

此前一周，與宜賓相鄰的瀘州也首發了至欽州的鐵海聯運外貿鐵路班列。

去年以來，重慶、成都、貴陽、蘭州等地陸續開通到廣西欽州港的貨運班列，這些出口貨物再通過海運等多式聯運從欽州港發往東盟、南亞和中東地區。

南向通道與中歐班列的結合，使得泛歐泛亞國際貿易物流大通道逐漸成形。

西南出海大通道

長期以來，中國的對外貿易都是海運為主，因此，廣大內陸地區尤其是西部地區都要經過長距離的運輸才能到達上海、廣州、天津等東部港口出海。這大大影響內陸地區的開放和經濟發展。

新開通的瀘州、宜賓至欽州班列將成為四川出海運距最短鐵路班列。“川-桂”段1642公里，單程運行時間在兩天左右。

西南交通大學區域經濟與城市管理研究中心主任戴賓向第一財經表示，四川最近的出海港就是廣西的欽州港。通過長江航運向東出海，受航道升級遇阻和三峽大壩瓶頸的影響，走廣西出海是現實的選擇。

有業內人士對四川當地媒體介紹，通過長江水道經上海出海，至少要耗時15天。貨物經宜賓出海，公路運輸成本約500元/噸，鐵路運輸成本約300元/噸，水運約200元/噸。鐵路運輸比公路成本低，比水運速度快，優勢明顯。

實際上，近10年來，四川、重慶、貴州和廣西等地一直在打造西南出海大通道，尤其是在“一帶一路”倡議提出後，這條線路的推進更加快速。西部地區可以通過廣西實現國際海鐵聯運，從廣西出海到達泛東南亞各國及印度、中東等地區。

廣西社科院研究員粟慶品向第一財經表示，南向通道是“一帶一路”倡議的需要，也是中新戰略性互聯互通示範項目的需要。十九大提出，形成陸海內外聯動、東西雙向互濟的開放格局。

廣西正好是這樣的連接點。

2017年8月31日，重慶、廣西、貴州、甘肅四方簽署《關於合作共建中新互聯互通項目南向通道的框架協議》，攜手合力打造南向通道。

尤其是蘭渝鐵路2017年9月通車，將西北和西南地區貫通，形成第一條南北縱向大通道，可以銜接“一帶一路”，與中歐班列連接起來。

在這次會議後，重慶、甘肅和貴州都開始組建南向通道運營平臺公司。貴州由遵義交旅投資集團公司牽頭負責貴州省“南向通道”建設運營平臺公司；甘肅省南向通道建設省級物流運營平臺公司已於2018年3月31日掛牌成立。

粟慶品表示，廣西因此成為連接絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路的連接點和門戶。在四省區合作的基礎上，廣西提出“南向、北聯、東融、西拓”全方位開放發展新格局，並邀請其他省份加入南向通道。

今年4月20日在重慶舉行的中新互聯互通項目南向通道2018年中方聯席會議上，四川、雲南、陜西、青海、內蒙古、新疆等省區也派代表參加會議。在這次會議上，重慶市市長唐良智就表示，建設南向通道是國家戰略性項目，是西部地區發展的重大機遇，我們要凝聚共識，積極融入國家戰略，加快形成“陸海內外聯動、東西雙向互濟”全面開放新格局。

貫穿泛歐泛亞

除了海鐵聯運，國際班列也是一個方向。

今年2月26日，成都首次測試成功從越南經憑祥鐵路口岸至成都的“蓉歐+”國際鐵路通道。3月16日，首趟中歐班列（重慶）越南國際班列由廣西憑祥口岸出境，直達越南河內。

去年，廣西、重慶與新加坡簽署協議，開通鐵路集裝箱班列，形成由重慶經廣西北部灣港到新加坡的海陸聯運線路；開通中國至中南半島的公路貨運直通車，形成由重慶經廣西到新加坡的陸路通路；擴展空中航空物流的合作，在南寧合建中新大型綜合物流園區；推動通關便利化，拓展信息物聯，探討跨境電商、智慧物流的合作等。

而成都國際鐵路港投資發展公司也對第一財經表示，成都鐵路港集團與北部灣港務集團對接，商討北部灣港與成都鐵路港的深度合作機制，如參考渝桂新模式，聯合北部灣港和相關具有較強實力的大型物流企業，共同組建成都東盟海鐵聯運通道的輕資產合資運營公司。

成都國際鐵路港投資發展公司副總經理張倞表示，東盟人口密度大，很多低附加值產業轉移過去了。人口多意味著市場就大，產業多就有運輸需求，一些產品還需要到其他國家組裝加工。

尤其是這條線路將東盟、中亞和歐洲連接起來，與中國各城市開行的中歐班列、中亞班列可以對接，顯示出泛歐泛亞國際物流大通道更為廣闊的前景。

成都提出建立以國際鐵路班列、國際海鐵聯運班列和國內互聯互通班列為支撐、連接泛歐泛亞的國際班列體系。重慶提出建設內陸國際物流樞紐，構建西向中歐班列、南向通道、東向出海通道、國際航線網絡化骨架。

不僅如此，戴賓表示，西部地區可以利用廣西的港口航線資源，擴展與東盟地區的物流貿易，另外，還可以從體系更深角度去考慮怎麽利用這個通道，包括建立產業園區。

實際上，2012年9月，四川、廣西兩省區政府就曾經簽訂了《關於加快推進建設西南出海大通道暨合作共建北部灣川桂臨海產業園的協議》。2018年年初，廣西壯族自治區黨委書記彭清華調任四川省委書記，這為助推川桂合作創造更為有利的條件。

粟慶品表示，雲南、貴州和廣西有能源和有色金屬方面的合作，川桂產業園區合作，希望能引進成都這邊的產業進駐。隨著主要官員的調任，四川和廣西兩省區合作將會加強，政策有所擴大。

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東亞大股東﹕有壓力難增持

1 : GS(14)@2012-10-03 23:19:22

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/Finance/20121003/News/ea_eaa1.htm


Caixa Bank則在6日後增持620.78萬股，持股量達到17.1%，繼續保持最大單一股東的地位(見表)。Caxia Bank持有的股份，按上周五(9月28日)收市價29.1元計算，市值約104億元，而東亞主席及行政總裁李國寶，則只持有3.09%。
看好中國前景 與東亞組車貸合營
「Caxia Bank長遠打算將持股增至上限的20%，目前集團承受覑來自經濟危機的壓力，故現階段沒有增持計劃，但我們亦不會減持股份。」Ignacio表示，集團2007年開始入股東亞後，一直保持緊密關係，對李國寶家族亦很了解，故希望繼續保持合作。若找到合適的機會，就會有進一步的增持行動。

與此同時，他看好中國的經濟在未來將會成為世界第一，故此集團預先投資在東亞身上。Caixa Bank與東亞、華晨(1114)於今年8月初宣布成立一間合營公司，進軍內地汽車金融服務的市場。「我們在這市場很有經驗，亦看好中國的汽車市場。」
他說﹕「無疑中國增長放緩，但他們的經濟正轉型至內需，這正是我們投資的主要因素。」不過，他表明Caixa Bank與東亞，或其他外地銀行合作，仍會保持簡單的方法，即是只會直接入股心儀的銀行，作為集團的海外投資，但無意沾手外國的銀行業，即不會到當地開分店、提供銀行服務等。
「外界過分誇大西班牙危機」
Caxia Bank積極向海外投資，正好反映歐洲區內經濟不景氣的情，刺激企業往外找機會。Ignacio坦言，西班牙的確處於很差的情，10年期國債孳息率升至6、7厘的高水平，不少企業都要裁員及減低開支，但他認為外界對西班牙的經濟不甚了解，過分誇大當地的危機。「西班牙的出口正在恢復，預計今年全年的GDP增幅有望變回正數，而銀行體系亦不會崩潰。」
不過，他亦認為西班牙的國民，要扭轉以往「大使」的習慣，開始為自己儲蓄，而銀行業亦要加強監管自身的財政狀及進行改革，他深信歐央行之前公布的無限買債計劃，有助歐洲的銀行渡過危機。
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