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Three Questions that Count 百萬倉 - Start from One Million

 From
http://philipleung168.blogspot.com/2009/04/three-questions-that-count.html

此為 Ken Fisher (Philips Fisher 兒子) 近作,有別於先前 Superstocks 專注小型反轉股分析,專注於宏觀策略分析,頗適用於一般投資者。

頭數章破常人投資迷思,人云所云‧例如常識偏向投資低 PE 股,但用日常數據驗證下只屬小部份 (R-sqr=0.2),不是主要影響盈虧因素‧作者要人反覆驗證市場迷思,當眾人認為A產生B便發生時,卻知道應大概是C,那你便有 edge 了‧

投 資回報八成以上來自資產調配,只一成多由選股,所以常人應盡量貼近指標表現,除非極有信心市場過熱‧其指標通指為全球股票指數,亦可加新兴指數或各別 sector 指數,其組成為指數基金或個別龍頭股,個股投資不会過五巴仙‧投資者預期未來各國或 sectors 榮枯,會增加減少各比重去跑贏指標,但不會偏離先前比例太遠,估錯來年仲有得追,如脫脚十多巴仙就有排追囉,要知道連八成以上專業經理都跑輸‧

作者反覆告誡不要過份自信集中落注,決定前要諗諗衰左能否追回指標及接受到先‧以作者角度來說,而家肯定吾係清倉守現金時,反應要吸龍頭股貼市,入得早當然預輸,但升上去被甩開的風險更大﹔要知道海嘯后你仍有現金已跑贏大市二三十个,而家買已大賺差距了。



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Turtle Exam Questions Consilient Lollapalooza

http://consilient-lollapalooza.xanga.com/734103291/turtle-exam-questions/

The following true/false questions were sent out to the second group of Turtles. These questions were used to help decide who was picked and who was not:

1. One should favor being long or being short whichever one is comfortable with.
2. On initiation one should know precisely at what price to liquidate if a profit occurs.
3. One should trade the same number of contracts in all markets.
4. If one has $100,000 to risk, one ought to risk $25,000 on every trade.
5. On initiation one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs.
6. You can never go broke taking profits.
7. It helps to have the fundamentals in your favor before you initiate.
8. A gap up is a good place to initiate if an uptrend has started.
9. If you anticipate buy stops in the market, wait until they are finished and buy a little higher than that.
10. Of 3 types of orders (market, stop, and resting), market orders cost the least skid.
11. The more bullish news you hear and the more people are going long the less likely the
uptrend is to continue after a substantial uptrend.
12. The majority of traders are always wrong.
13. Trading bigger is an overall handicap to one’s trading performance.
14. Larger traders can “muscle” markets to their advantage.
15. Vacations are important for traders to keep the proper perspective.
16. Undertrading is almost never a problem.
17. Ideally, average profits should be about 3 or 4 times average losses.
18. A trader should be willing to let profits turn into losses.
19. A very high percentage of trades should be profits.
20. A trader should like to take losses.
21. It is especially relevant when the market is higher than it’s been in 4 and 13 weeks.
22. Needing and wanting money are good motivators to good trading.
23. One’s natural inclinations are good guides to decision making in trading.
24. Luck is an ingredient in successful trading over the long run.
25. When you’re long, “limit up” is a good place to take a profit.
26. It takes money to make money.
27. It’s good to follow hunches in trading.
28. There are players in each market one should not trade against.
29. All speculators die broke
30. The market can be understood better through social psychology than through economics.
31. Taking a loss should be a difficult decision for traders.
32. After a big profit, the next trend-following trade is more likely to be a loss.
33. Trends are not likely to persist.
34. Almost all information about a commodity is at least a little useful in helping make decisions.
35. It’s better to be an expert in 1-2 markets rather than try to trade 10 or more markets.
36. In a winning streak, total risk should rise dramatically.
37. Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities.
38. It’s a good idea to know how much you are ahead or behind during a trading session.
39. A losing month is an indication of doing something wrong.
40. A losing week is an indication of doing something wrong.
41. The big money in trading is made when one can get long at lows after a big downtrend.
42. It’s good to average down when buying.
43. After a long trend, the market requires more consolidation before another trend starts.
44. It’s important to know what to do if trading in commodities doesn’t succeed.
45. It is not helpful to watch every quote in the markets one trades.
46. It is a good idea to put on or take off a position all at once.
47. Diversification in commodities is better than always being in 1 or 2 markets.
48. If a day’s profit or loss makes a significant difference to your net worth, you’re overtrading.
49. A trader learns more from his losses than his profits.
50. Except for commission and brokerage fees, execution “costs” for entering orders are minimal over the course of a year.
51. It’s easier to trade well than to trade poorly.
52. It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life.
53. Uptrends end when everyone gets bearish.
54. The more bullish news you hear the less likely a market is to break out on the upside.
55. For an off-floor trader, a long-term trade ought to last 3 or 4 weeks or less.
56. Other’s opinions of the market are good to follow.
57. Volume and open interest are as important as price action.
58. Daily strength and weakness is a good guide for liquidating long-term positions with big profits.
59. Off-floor traders should spread different markets of different market groups.
60. The more people are going long the less likely an uptrend is to continue in the beginning of a trend.
61. Off-floor traders should not spread different delivery months of the same commodity.
62. Buying dips and selling rallies is a good strategy.
63. It’s important to take a profit most of the time.

Short Answer Questions

On the back of the true/false answer sheet, please answer these questions with one sentence each.

1. What were your standard test results on college entrance exams?
2. Name a book or movie you like and why.
3. Name a historical figure you like and why.
4. Why would you like to succeed at this job?
5. Name a risky thing you have done and why.
6. Explain a decision you have made under pressure and why that was your decision.
7. Hope, fear and greed are said to be enemies of good traders. Explain a decision you may have made under one of these influences and how you view that decision now.
8. What are some good qualities you have that might help in trading?
9. What are some bad qualities you have that might hurt in trading?
10. In trading would you rather be good or lucky? Why?
11. Is there anything else you’d like to add?

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Judge questions businesswoman's evidence

1 : GS(14)@2011-06-11 14:57:59

http://www.rthk.org.hk/rthk/news/englishnews/20110608/news_20110608_56_760917.htm
2 : GS(14)@2011-06-11 14:58:19

http://www.rthk.org.hk/rthk/news ... 10609_55_761117.htm
法 官 稱 蔣 麗 莉 乃 串 謀 詐 騙 案 主 腦
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