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It's Over買中移動(941) 蔡東豪

>2008-06-05 NextMagazine期待已久的中國電訊業重組終於落實,具體內容跟市場預期完全脗合。內地傳媒形容重組方案是「被咀嚼了四年的香口膠」─—毫無味道。中移動在重組公布後遭沽售,股價急跌逾一成,有大行甚至把其投資評級從「購入」改為「沽出」,但我認為這是買入中移動的良機。

我對國企股有戒心,因我不大懂分析政策風險。內地股市沒法擺脫政策市,所有國企股都承受着不同程度的政策風險。今次電訊業重組,把「政策市」美麗和醜陋的一面表露無遺。

今 次重組的主角企業都在香港上市,股東不乏國際投資者,但中央一聲令下,參與者欣然接受中央的「鼓勵」(中央公告的字眼的確是「鼓勵」)。還記得○四年電訊 業重組,中移動和聯通對調董事長,內地投資者對這類人事安排可能不足為奇,若換轉是百佳和惠康、中原和美聯對調行政總裁,香港投資者會認為匪夷所思。這是 「政策市」醜陋的一面。

重組影響參與者利益,當事人有贏有輸,商討過程必有爭拗和討價還價,這些都是在公眾視線範圍以外進行。假如投資者看 得通中央長遠目標,懂得分析參與者的政治實力,能預測「政策市」下誰是長勝將軍,「政策市」的特質便可變為投資指標,跟市盈率的高低無異。中移動一直是我 認為值得推介的國企股,原因不單純是投資估值吸引,或是行業前景秀麗,而是我「較為」看得通中央對中移動的態度和中移動的政治實力。這是「政策市」美麗的 一面。

內地電訊業過去十多年不停重組,每一次都喊「整合資源」、「加強發展勢頭」等口號。近年的重組加入新目標,是「打破中移動一家獨大」。但我發現每次重組後的贏家都是中移動,證明中移動是一部馬力甚大的機器,由誰操控分別不大。

就以今次重組為例,輿論普遍認為中移動是輸家,但想深一層,中移動真的是輸家嗎?電訊營運商由六間變三間,中移動的母公司「被鼓勵」收購鐵通,短期對上市的中移動全無影響。相反,對手須花大量時間和資源去處理網絡分割和合併,管理層和員工整合等複雜問題,過程並不明朗。

過 去幾年,中移動像停不下來的火車頭,把對手遠遠拋離。根據去年數據,中移動營業額是網通、中電信和聯通三間公司的總和,利潤幾乎等於三間公司的兩倍。中移 動現時的市佔率約七成,最要命是它差不多控制新增用戶市場,這市場佔有率達八成。即是說,中移動的整體市佔率每天正在上升。

幾年前,中電信 曾以另類技術「小靈通」,搶先攻入城鎮和農村市場,風光過一段時間。中移動改變只攻大城市的策略,同時亦向農村市場進攻,「小靈通」不堪一擊。近年中電信 幾乎停止對「小靈通」的投資。農村市場逐漸成為中移動客戶增長的主要動力,佔其新增用戶近半。中移動管理層沒因處於領先而鬆懈,反而處處顯示靈活處事作 風,貼近市場變化。

中移動已牢牢佔據主導地位,管理層更積極不斷尋找增長空間,令對手無法招架,出現此消彼長。今次重組有助餘下兩間電訊公司鞏固實力,但中移動已奪取市場最優質客戶,剩下來的客戶水平愈來愈低,這場競賽勝負已分。 It's Over。

單 靠行政手段,中移動的地位沒法被動搖。問題是中央會否落重藥打擊它,強行扶持另外兩間電訊公司。假如中移動一網獨大,而管理層不思進取,亂用資源,令消費 者受損的話,情況可能不一樣。但中移動顯示出非凡政治判斷力,處處配合中央大方向,累積政治影響力。例如中央計劃推行3G,中移動「被鼓勵」接手推動國產 TD-SCDMA制式;中移動面對這難嚥的骨頭,公開立場︰「我們完全有責任推動國內主導的國際標準制式的成長,這是責無旁貸的。」私底下中移動怎看國產 3G制式,則另作別論。

中移動是現時全球市值最大電訊股,這位置不是來自短期股市泡沫,而是實實在在、一步一步贏取中央和消費者的信任。再 者,中移動是內地企業「走出去」最具實力的代表,是中國企業在國內外的光榮,我看不到中央出手打壓中移動的動機。中移動○八年市盈率是廿倍,估計明年盈利 上升三成,市盈率跌至十六倍,投資者可放心和放膽買入。

蔡東豪Tony Tsoi

現任上市公司精電國際行政總裁,港交所上市委員會副主席。他曾任職投資銀行,在《信報》以筆名原復生撰寫財經專欄,對投資及求知有無限渴求,習慣早上四時起床寫作找樂趣。
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谷歌,It's your turn:Facebook收購廣告平台Atlas欲與Google廣告業務抗衡

http://www.iheima.com/archives/34177.html

據國外媒體稱,今日,Facebook正式收購了微軟的Atlas解決方案。

去年十二月,有傳言稱Facebook欲意收購Atlas實際是為了建立自己外部的廣告網絡。Atlas廣告平台是微軟在2007年用60億美元收購aQuantive公司的時候獲得。而Facebook一直想要收購它。

今天,這個交易正式結束了。儘管價錢一直沒有公開,但是估算應該在1億美元以下。微軟的Atlas廣告平台能夠幫助廣告商購買和管理廣告。這個收購交易將幫助Facebook開發自己的一站式服務,讓廣告商和機構購買、銷售、優化和跟蹤網絡廣告。Facebook希望,Atlas能幫助其向廣告商提供有效工具,基於他們捕捉的社交習慣,更有針對性地投放廣告,並更好理解社交活動對消費者購買決定的影響。

Facebook產品營銷主管布萊恩·博蘭德(Brian Boland)說:「我們相信,一旦可以測量營銷渠道的各個接觸點,將有助於廣告商看到有關其營銷活動效力的更全面觀點。收購Atlas將是取得這一目標的重要一步。」

不論Facebook還是微軟,都想增強顯示廣告業務方面與谷歌競爭的能力。據市場研究公司eMarketer的資料顯示,在規模達150億美元的美國在線顯示廣告市場上,谷歌以15.4%的市場份額排在首位,Facebook以14.4%的市場份額居於次席。所以Facebook收購Atlas此舉將給Google重重一擊。外界預計,Facebook將會創建一個廣告網絡,可以在其社交網絡以外銷售廣告。

新一場科技大戰即將開始,Facebook已經逼到了Google的城下。該輪到你出擊了!谷歌!

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China Mobile & TenCent.....It's complicated,but

I looked at the market on Thursday, what surprised me the most was both China Mobile (941) and TenCent (700) were moved reciprocal against the market trend. Friday morning, many friends were checking around, what was going on to China Mobile?

In a glance of recent news, I had replied and stated it could be a good set of SPD result, which announced a 3 for 10 bonus issue and dividend of RMB1.50 per share, but why TenCent had been moving parallels against China Mobile two days in a row?

Checking is part of the job, verifying is part of the learning curve or experiences accumulation. Why I bother to put my trading trail/idea into writing? A lot of friends asked about it, simply because good habit is the only way to cultivate the trading discipline and the greatest asset is the discipline to stay discipline.

It’s a record for self revision and hoping to improve it from time to time. Best is someone could point out where I had gone wrong or dipped into any errors.

Every season has a reason
Kindly see the news below; In fact, it has been constantly flowing around the market if you have been the China Mobile audient.

03/02/2010 16:09
併購消息刺激騰訊股價急升6%,中移動澄清無意收購或入股


《經濟通通訊社3日專訊》中移動(00941)發言人向外電表示,無意全部或部分收購騰訊控股(00700)。

有報章報道,中移動董事長王建宙表明,不能排除與騰訊之間有股本合作之可能。受併購消息刺激,騰訊今日一度高見151﹒6元,收報150﹒4元,顯著上升5﹒99%。

上月初有內地傳媒報道,王建宙到訪騰訊位於深圳的總部,商討可能收購一事。中移動發言人則在上月初強調,去年12月底,王建宙是在正常交流拜訪的過程中會見騰訊管理層。(eh)


04/01/2010 09:45
中移動(00941)澄清沒有計劃收購騰訊(00700)


《經濟通通訊社4日專訊》有內地傳媒報道,中移動(00941)董事長兼首席執行官王建宙於上周四(31日)率領中國移動代表團抵達騰訊(00700)的深圳總部,就收購騰訊作進一步磋商。不過,中移動發言人作出澄清,指有關消息毫無根據,中移動沒有收購騰訊的意向。
據了解,王建宙曾到訪過深圳多家企業,不只有騰訊一家。

據有關報道,中移動一直有收購騰訊的想法,但因中移動體制問題及騰訊不滿收購條件而未能成事。但隨着中移動即時短訊服務「飛信」需強制對外開放,進軍互聯網亦不順利,使中移動考慮收購有皇牌QQ在手的騰訊。(jw)


So, pretty obvious that the M&A angel is cooking behind the sense. Even though, China Mobile had been denied it, but the takeover news had been flowing around for the last couple of months. I think it is just same like most other countries, denying doesn’t help because insiders had been waving the price.

“Insider trading is just like having an affair, hate and criticizes others when you are not having it, addicted to it when you are having it. I’m here by not having any insider trading in Chine Mobile or TenCent, but to observe the insider trading.”

Why TenCent?
Briefly, I’m so sorry to say; my understanding toward the TenCent business model is equally like the layman. Thus, please DIY, knowing further about the TenCent business.

On the other hand, I had checked with the industry analysts, concluded the merger in between both companies business is like “如虎添翼”, direct translation is like putting a pair of wings onto a tiger. Or perfect synergy to be precise.
NOTE: Those are young analyst views.

However, saliva is flowing out non-stopping when you look into the TenCent number carefully.

The average net profit margin for its business model is approximately 38%, which attached with an average growth rate of about 58% for the last five years since listed in year 2004.

Very tame total borrowing of merely above RM470 million with backed by net cash position of RMB11.5 billion as of FY-end 2009.

Market capitalization is standing at HK$295,123,290,691.20 as of last Friday at the closing price of HK$161.40. Trading at high P/E of about 49.5x with the support of its high PEG.

Therefore, I’m interested to become TeCent shareholder if the price is reasonable.

How about any clue from China Mobile?
The most recent interview of China Mobile CEO during the recent press conference just after the SPD 20% stake acquisition. As below statement is indicating the future direction of its acquisition; 20 March 2010


“對於未來的並購,我可以明確表態,中國移動不會投資地產、能源等非電信主業的產業。我們的收購一直集中於電信業務,未來也會繼續探索並購目標,能夠通過並購充分發揮公司主業的協同效應,並提高公司EPS。對於並購,我們一直很謹慎,目前暫時還沒有新的目標。”

“If you talk to a man in a language he understands, that goes to his head. If you speak to him in his language, that goes into is heart.” – Nelson Mandela.

Pal, sorry about maintaining the original statement in Mandarin. I’m totally agreed with Nelson Mandela in the above mentioned quote. Please use Google translate, if you need to understand the original juice.

Thus, looking at both share prices performance since last Thursday till today’s before lunch; China Mobile and TenCent rested at HK$80 +$0.70 and HK$163.60 +HK$2.20 respectively. I think the insiders are accumulating.

How the takeover mechanism works?
Putting down the market capitalization as of current price;
(a) TenCent at HK$163.6 is HK$299,146,036,908.80
(b) China Mobile at HK$80.00 is HK$1,604,915,124,880.00
Comparatively, China Mobile is about 18 times bigger than TenCent in term of market capitalization.

Therefore, share issuing could be an idea mechanism to take over TenCent.

Also Very much depends on;
(a) What is the valuation post merger?
(can work out a post merger model)
(b) How much China Mobile is willing to pay?
(c) Whether the Chinese government is involved in the merger?

If the government is involved, the deal is pretty easy to go through.

My strategy is
China Mobile, buy on weakness, regardless whatsoever rumours are flowing around. The bottom line is this company has plenty of cash even post 20% stake SPD acquisition. Most importantly, China Mobile is in the acquire mode, which had been expressed by its’ CEO in many occasions.

It's just an idea from the share prices reflective, which came across my head for your perusal. Please tell me if I'm wrong.
thanks & regards
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