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2011年 Charlie and I 一只牛的投資日記

http://feigan.blogspot.com/2012/03/2011-charlie-and-i.html

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

In my early days I, too, rejoiced when the market rose. Then I read Chapter Eight of Ben
Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, the chapter dealing with how investors should view fluctuations in stock prices. Immediately the scales fell from my eyes, and low prices became my friend. Picking up that book was one of the luckiest moments in my life.

一只牛:
我是窮牛,當我已經全部買入,市場大升,我會很開心,然後我希望天價賣出。
人生不如意十之八九,哪有可能行運一條龍?尤其是一隻牛。
【The Intelligent Investor】--Investor and Market Fluactuation,並不難懂,平價是好朋友,波動是好朋友,人人都懂。為何大跌市,好股大平賣,卻不敢買入?這是不是似懂非懂?為何股價波動了幾 個%,就急着止賺/止蝕,我們是不是似懂非懂?我要多謝Graham,我才能接觸善知識。

In the end, the success of our IBM investment will be determined primarily by its future earnings. But an important secondary factor will be how many shares the company purchases with the substantial sums it is likely to devote to this activity. And if repurchases ever reduce the IBM shares outstanding to 63.9 million, I will abandon my famed frugality and give Berkshire employees a paid holiday.

一只牛:
企業的價值是建立在

  • 未來盈利
  • 聰明的管理股東權益(例如回購股份)

我發現,未來盈利:

  • 獲利能力強
  • 成長
  • 差異化優勢

聰明的管理股東權益:

  • excellent management
  • 誠實(小股東能分享)


Insurance
In most years, including 2011, the industry’s premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry’s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of the average return realized by American industry, a sorry performance almost certain to continue. Berkshire’s outstanding economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running some extraordinary insurance operations. Let me tell you about the major units.

At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must
(1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses;
(2) conservatively evaluate the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does;
(3) set a premium that will deliver a profit, on average, after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and
(4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained.

Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that their competitors are eagerly writing.

一只牛:
如果保險公司是由傻仔打理,後果不堪想像。
就算是國內最大的保險商,由傻仔打理,後果也是不堪想像。

各行各業,哪有競爭不激烈的?
有哪一個上班族沒有壓力?
如果公司是傻仔打理,唯有自求多福。


Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses

A key characteristic of both companies is the huge investment they have in very long-lived, regulated assets,

Both businesses have earning power that even under terrible business conditions amply
covers their interest requirements.
BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.5x.

At MidAmerican, meanwhile, two key factors ensure its ability to service debt under all
circumstances: The stability of earnings that is inherent in our exclusively offering an essential service and a diversity of earnings streams, which shield it from the actions of any single regulatory body.

Measured by ton-miles, rail moves 42% of America’s inter-city freight, and BNSF moves more than any other railroad – about 37% of the industry total. A little math will tell you that about 15% of all inter-city ton-miles of freight in the U.S. is transported by BNSF. It is no exaggeration to characterize railroads as the circulatory system of our economy. Your railroad is the largest artery.

Massive investments of the sort that BNSF is making would be foolish if it could not earn appropriate returns on the incremental sums it commits.

MidAmerican, 89.8% owned by Berkshire, supplies 2.5 million customers in the U.S. with electricity, operating as the largest supplier in Iowa, Utah and Wyoming and as an important provider in six other states as well. Our pipelines transport 8% of the country’s natural gas. Obviously, many millions of Americans depend on us every day. They haven’t been disappointed.

一只牛:
投資公用企業,就要預算它的龐大資本支出,隨時要有出差錯的準備。
所以利息保障比率,我們要懂得計。你看,BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.5x.

投資公用企業,就要選最厲害的,最厲害的才能形成壟斷局勢,才能成為強大。


Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations

A few, however, have very poor returns, a result of some serious mistakes I made in my job of capital allocation. These errors came about because I misjudged either the competitive strength of the business being purchased or the future economics of the industry in which it operated. I try to look out ten or twenty years when making an acquisition, but sometimes my eyesight has been poor.

Overall, the intrinsic value of the businesses in this Berkshire sector significantly exceeds their book value. For many of the smaller companies, however, this is not true. I have made more than my share of mistakes buying small companies. Charlie long ago told me, “If something’s not worth doing at all, it’s not worth doing well,” and I should have listened harder. In any event, our large purchases have generally worked well – extraordinarily well in a few cases – and overall this sector is a winner for us.

一只牛:
原來,巴菲特也是時常犯錯,但是他的犯錯成本非常細小,做對的回報卻很大。

我個人認為,十強之內的企業,找到對的公司的機會很高(它們就是因為做對了,才能在十強之內)。

2011 Charlie and 一只 只牛 牛的 投資 日記
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=31831

投資傳奇Charlie Munger:理性的力量

http://wallstreetcn.com/node/55058

作為伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的另一位掌門人Charlie Munger雖然遠沒有巴菲特那麼有名,但是在任何方面他的優秀程度都毫不遜色。Munger到明年1月份就90歲了,他是投資者們的楷模,大家驚訝於他那一套方法,可以戰勝眾多擁有著高速的計算機和信息來源的專業投資人士。

Munger說過:你可以有耐心,但是「專家」們沒有;你可以不趕潮流,但是專家們不行;最重要的是,你可以勇敢的行動,而他們幾乎從不。

那麼是什麼使Munger能成為大家的楷模的呢?

在2009年第一季度,Munger收購了Daily Journal,一家名不見經傳的小型出版公司,然後把它變成了一家投資公司大舉投資當時的燙手山芋—銀行股,根據Daily Journal的財報,截至2009年3月31日,他的籌碼已經增值了60%,加上他後來的一些投資,他總共在證券市場裡投資了4970萬美元如今已經市值1.284億美元。

在2月份Daily Journal的年會上,Munger講起了他的投資方法,他說道: 當股價低的離譜時就應該大膽的衝進去,這點上我們做的很好。

當然,Daily Journal不是Munger在金融危機中作的唯一大膽的投資。他領導的Good Samaritan醫療中心長期以來把收到的捐助款投資於現金與短期債直到此次金融危機前。當時,Munger大膽決定將多數資金投入公司債券市場,儘管當時債券市場十分不景氣。

雖然Good Samaritan的發言人拒絕對此事發表評論,但是醫院的財報顯示他們的捐款到2009年9月底賬面盈利已經超過了1200萬美元,在當時存款利率只有0.5%債券市場平均只有8%收益率的情況下取得了大約20%的收益率。

當Munger被問到其超凡的勇氣和魄力是從何而來時,他只回答了一句話:我是理性的,對,這就是答案,我很理性。

瞭解Munger的人指出,加州理工學院氣象學專業出身的Munger心中考慮的更多是概率而不是確定的事實。他人生坎坷,早年離婚後來小兒子又因白血病而去世,經受逆境考驗Munger經年累月的閱讀大量關於歷史、科學、傳記、心理學方面的書籍練就了他的火眼金睛。

作為Munger多年的好友,紐約Davis Advisors董事長Christopher Davis評價道:Charlie對斯多葛學派(主要提倡唯物觀和理性思考)有非常深刻的理解,他似乎能完全摒棄人類的情感而行事,做到在眾人樂觀時他淡定,眾人恐懼積極的尋找機會。

Munger最鍾愛的一句話是:淡定一些。不要看別人在都在投資一樣東西你也跟風上前,直到真正好的投資機會出現再考慮入場。尤其是發生危機的時候特別容易出現這樣的機會,他如果看好,一定會毫不猶豫的出手。

Oaktree Capital Management的負責人同時也是Munger的好友John Frank評論道:

Charlie很清楚自己在想什麼,別人同不同意對他根本沒有影響。他在感情和理性之間不會左右搖擺。

「我的事業生涯樂趣無窮,但如果沒有與Munger共事,將會枯燥許多,我的很多思考方式受到他的潛移默化,我認為他是老師,伯克希爾有了他的指導,才得以成為更有價值且備受推崇的公司。」

巴菲特這樣評價他的老搭檔。

基金經理兼著名財經博客作家Shane Parrish感嘆道:

很多資金管理者整日忙於會議和郵件,牆上掛著的電視不間斷的播放著新聞和股票走勢,他們心中想著的總是如何去戰勝市場。而此時,Munger和巴菲特卻坐在安靜的辦公室內閱讀和思考,與人溝通的手段也僅僅是桌上的一部電話。通過合理的規劃,他們過濾掉了市場中的雜波,做出儘量少的決定。他們關心的是如何做出更優的決策而不是戰勝誰。

儘管目前為止Munger的Daily Journal公司還沒有公佈在金融危機時期購買的是哪些股票,不過著名投資網站ValueWalk認為其中最大的一筆交易是Wells Fargo其次是U.S.Bancorp。巴菲特對此不予評論但是同時表示:Charlie確實是非常理性。

投資 傳奇 Charlie Munger 理性 力量
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=74643

2011年 Charlie and I

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

In my early days I, too, rejoiced when the market rose. Then I read Chapter Eight of Ben
Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, the chapter dealing with how investors should view fluctuations in stock prices. Immediately the scales fell from my eyes, and low prices became my friend. Picking up that book was one of the luckiest moments in my life.

一只牛:
我是窮牛,當我已經全部買入,市場大升,我會很開心,然後我希望天價賣出。
人生不如意十之八九,哪有可能行運一條龍?尤其是一隻牛。
【The Intelligent Investor】--Investor and Market Fluactuation,並不難懂,平價是好朋友,波動是好朋友,人人都懂。為何大跌市,好股大平賣,卻不敢買入?這是不是似懂非懂?為何股價波動了幾個%,就急着止賺/止蝕,我們是不是似懂非懂?我要多謝Graham,我才能接觸善知識。

In the end, the success of our IBM investment will be determined primarily by its future earnings. But an important secondary factor will be how many shares the company purchases with the substantial sums it is likely to devote to this activity. And if repurchases ever reduce the IBM shares outstanding to 63.9 million, I will abandon my famed frugality and give Berkshire employees a paid holiday.

一只牛:
企業的價值是建立在
  • 未來盈利
  • 聰明的管理股東權益(例如回購股份)

我發現,未來盈利:

  • 獲利能力強
  • 成長
  • 差異化優勢
聰明的管理股東權益:
  • excellent management
  • 誠實(小股東能分享)

Insurance
In most years, including 2011, the industry’s premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry’s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of the average return realized by American industry, a sorry performance almost certain to continue. Berkshire’s outstanding economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running some extraordinary insurance operations. Let me tell you about the major units.

At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must
(1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses;
(2) conservatively evaluate the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does;
(3) set a premium that will deliver a profit, on average, after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and
(4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained.

Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that their competitors are eagerly writing.

一只牛:
如果保險公司是由傻仔打理,後果不堪想像。
就算是國內最大的保險商,由傻仔打理,後果也是不堪想像。

各行各業,哪有競爭不激烈的?
有哪一個上班族沒有壓力?
如果公司是傻仔打理,唯有自求多福。


Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses

A key characteristic of both companies is the huge investment they have in very long-lived, regulated assets,

Both businesses have earning power that even under terrible business conditions amply
covers their interest requirements.
BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.5x.

At MidAmerican, meanwhile, two key factors ensure its ability to service debt under all
circumstances: The stability of earnings that is inherent in our exclusively offering an essential service and a diversity of earnings streams, which shield it from the actions of any single regulatory body.

Measured by ton-miles, rail moves 42% of America’s inter-city freight, and BNSF moves more than any other railroad – about 37% of the industry total. A little math will tell you that about 15% of all inter-city ton-miles of freight in the U.S. is transported by BNSF. It is no exaggeration to characterize railroads as the circulatory system of our economy. Your railroad is the largest artery.

Massive investments of the sort that BNSF is making would be foolish if it could not earn appropriate returns on the incremental sums it commits.

MidAmerican, 89.8% owned by Berkshire, supplies 2.5 million customers in the U.S. with electricity, operating as the largest supplier in Iowa, Utah and Wyoming and as an important provider in six other states as well. Our pipelines transport 8% of the country’s natural gas. Obviously, many millions of Americans depend on us every day. They haven’t been disappointed.

一只牛:
投資公用企業,就要預算它的龐大資本支出,隨時要有出差錯的準備。
所以利息保障比率,我們要懂得計。你看,BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.5x.

投資公用企業,就要選最厲害的,最厲害的才能形成壟斷局勢,才能成為強大。


Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations

A few, however, have very poor returns, a result of some serious mistakes I made in my job of capital allocation. These errors came about because I misjudged either the competitive strength of the business being purchased or the future economics of the industry in which it operated. I try to look out ten or twenty years when making an acquisition, but sometimes my eyesight has been poor.

Overall, the intrinsic value of the businesses in this Berkshire sector significantly exceeds their book value. For many of the smaller companies, however, this is not true. I have made more than my share of mistakes buying small companies. Charlie long ago told me, “If something’s not worth doing at all, it’s not worth doing well,” and I should have listened harder. In any event, our large purchases have generally worked well – extraordinarily well in a few cases – and overall this sector is a winner for us.

一只牛:
原來,巴菲特也是時常犯錯,但是他的犯錯成本非常細小,做對的回報卻很大。

我個人認為,十強之內的企業,找到對的公司的機會很高(它們就是因為做對了,才能在十強之內)。
2011 Charlie and
PermaLink: https://articles.zkiz.com/?id=176378


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