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Ztrader – Price Distribution Indicators (1) 港股博弈

To determine the support and resistance area, one method I like to use is to collect the statistics of the price distribution and display it visually on a chart.

For example. # 0135 this year, before it collapse next day:

One can draw a support line a about $15.4. Is this support strong enough ?

Turn on the Volume by Price indicator, the trading volume of the corresponding price level is accumulated and displayed as an overlay on the chart. Longer the bar, means bigger the trading volume at that price level. Green bar is the volume that closing wih a upward price, pink bar is the volume that closing with a downward price :

One can clearly see the region 15.66-15.95 , is dominated by the pink bar, which indicates an resistance more that a support, more than that, the lastest closing is below that region.

The support region from $13 to $15.6 is very weak, observed from the short Volume/Price line.

Extend the chart backward to 2012, the major support seems at $13.5.

In the case, it is better to escape rather than bet for a rebound. Follow that day, It collapsed and tried to rebound later:

Later it fall through the major support at 13.5:

Re-examine the major support at $13.5, There was a placement in 2012. If exclude that placement, support at $13.5 is not that major:

In fact the 857 corruption event was disclosed in late Aug. It seems a lot of related party already knew the investigation much earlier. The stock price stabilized after the event disclosed. If play this stock based on limited FA resources, it is a real disaster.

BTW, I am not challenging FA by TA. It is just the imbalance of information makes a pure “FA” analysis failed. Stock market is never a fair game.